Members Daily Post: 08/03/20 (complete)

1. My Tips

2.Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.General messages/updates/new reports etc

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1. My Tips

Daily Chase Tips Main (2019: 24/165, 49p +16.8 ) Jumps Festival Tips (2018:+143; 2019: 6/99,27p, -45.8,)

Daily Chase Tips: Main (2020: 3/45,9p, -28.8)

(handicap chases, 2m7f+, C4+) 

# 1 – 3.35 Warw- ALMINAR – 1 point win – 6/1 (WH/BV) 11/2 (gen) PU

#2 – 3.15 Naas – CHEF DES OBEAUX – 1 point win – 9/1 (bet365) 8/1 (gen) UP

the less said about those two the better. Onto the Festival.

 

Best of The Blog? (test: 2/18, 8p; -5.7)

None today.

 

2.Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

JUMPS

Southwell

3.55 – Alrightjack (HcH) 14,30  I3  9/2 

 

Warwick

3.05 –

Lunar Baby (all Hc’s,micro class) ES+ H3 6/1 S3A WON 8/1 

Steal A March (all Hc’s,HcH) w1 H1 I3 4/1 

Moroder (m class) 25/1 S2A 3rd 

Sandymount Rose (all Hc’s) 7/1  UP

3.35 – Fleminport (all Hc’s) I3 6/1 2nd 

4.10 – Playa Blanca (m class) G3 12/1 S1 WON 12/1>7/2 

 

TTP Chase Micros 2019/20

3.35 Warw- Fleminport I3 6/1 2nd 

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Please Read: All information re the members club and how to engage in the content, what all the red symbols mean, etc. Inc contact info, research articles ,Guest Tipster info can be found HERE>>>

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3.Micro System Test Zone

Monthly Trainer

2019: +17.56 BFSP; 2020, +67.7 SP, +151.32 BFSP

Ian Williams (any) 

3.35 Warw- Zerachiel 25/1 

 

Chase Angles 2019/20 

Trainers

3.35 Warw – Lord In Red 16/1 UP

LTO winning trainers

3.35 Warw- Alminar (12/1< guide) H3 I3 11/2 PU

 

Chase Eye-Catchers 2019/20

4.50 Naas – Snugsborough Benny (3rd run/hurdle) H1 6/1 

 

4.General messages/updates/new reports etc

Cheltenham Festival 2020 Master Post: READ HERE>>>

-The ‘Master Post’ includes various links inc main stats report, the plan for the week, betting banks etc

(Martin has kindly added some notes from the London Racing Club preview evening – found in the comments of my Liv preview post, scroll down to the comments here>>> )

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Write ups…

3.35 Warwick –

Alminar – there is so much more to come from Nigel Hawkes stayer and I wanted him onside. Whether he shows it today we shall see but I thought if he stayed, and granted usual luck in running we all need, he would win – i’ve no doubt he’s still chucked in off 119 given how he won LTO – he powered through the line there when everything else was out on it’s feet and visually finished like a fresh horse. His 127 RPR was a career best as was the TS figure. In his 4 chases over 3m he’s run/shaped as if he would relish 3 1/2 + , and now we get to find out. This looks to have been the plan to me and he goes well after this sort of break. Many of his races have produced subsequent winners and I just thought he had a more interesting profile than most in here. The blinkers/TT combo appeared to do the trick LTO, as well as generally building up experience, and he should step forward again. He’s tracked the pace before and over this trip i’d hope he can hold a position for his jockey, who’s 2/2 on him. Provided he jumps as well as he can, he should give me a run for my money, and as they turn for home we shall see if he powers away, or falls in a hole. Recent evidence would suggest it should be the former. At 11/2 I was happy to take a chance, given he’s one of a few in here who’s unexposed in conditions/still has time on his side.

The dangers…

Belle Empress would be an annoying winner to a point – I had it between these two on recent form/profiles, and in the end went with the one yet to have a crack over this trip. BE is still unexposed yet a proven stayer, who races handily. It could be that a repeat of LTO is good enough – there may be no Christmas In April (who now looks ultra progressive as a stayer) or Perfect Candidate (been in form/runs his race/135) in this race today, and the front 3 were miles clear again LTO. That race was only 16 days ago and there is a questions as to what that has taken out of her – but, if she runs her race, she won’t be far away at all and may be the one to pass turning for home.

Of the rest… well the most interesting ‘biggie’ may be Lord In Red , given how well his trainer does in marathon chases – his runners are always worth a second look. Maybe he will relish this test but he can be inconsistent and I wasn’t sure as to the level of his form – but this extra yardage may bring out plenty more. He has been held up in his races and can hit a fence. I can sort of see the case but the two above have achieved a better level of form for me – but they may not run their race etc. If they don’t, this becomes very open.

Fleminport – well I won’t be shocked if he took this as he has shaped like a stayer – although he’s a recalcitrant sod who’s now 0/7 over fences- put simply he needs the blinkers to work – those + the Junior may well inspire him. I just wanted bigger given those niggles as to his character, and he does have to prove he stays also. You’d think 119 is more than workable when it does click again and I can see the case, but the price was just a bit too short for me, given the questions – however, if he takes hold of the bit and is tanking through the first half of this race, he will be a danger to all.

The rest have even more questions for me. Spider’s Bite was the early fav but too short given the questions although HD has won this race twice. He is lightly raced, unexposed and has had a wind op. I’d want to see more before diving in at what was 5s for a race like this.

There’s plenty of older/more exposed horses in here who’ve become inconsistent. There’s a few who could be in there pitching if returning to their best – Vinnie Lewis (1st blinkers) , Le Reve (1st wind op) Dancing Shadow, Goodnight Charlie, Cyclop – they all stay but just too much guesswork as to which versions of themselves will turn up and they’re all open to attack from less exposed legs. But maybe it’s a day for the been there and done it oldie. Western Climate may run his race and now shapes as if he wants a trip and High C may be in and around if bouncing back to form.

Echo Watt is unexposed/in form but I thought he needed plenty more and that was a tough race LTO also, and he would have lost if the 2nd had his attitude. This looks deep enough but he could go well. I preferred Alminar but they have similar profiles. Book of Gold was too poor LTO – maybe hating the CP – he won a slog fest here two starts back where they didn’t go much pace. His jumping is questionable as if the Sherwood form at the moment. Court Liability has questions also and is just a bit too inexperienced over fences for me in a race like this.

I think that’s the lot.

I thought the market was homing in on the right ones near the top but that Alminar could make his price look decent in these conditions. Belle Empress looks the main danger, followed by Fleminport if the blinkers work – and Lord in Red may run best of the biggies.

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3.15 Naas –

Another decent staying Irish chase… I had my Mullins/ Elliot /De Bromhead (no runners) eyes on which is the way forward for these races, generally, long term.

Mullins is 4/11,6p +20 in this race and they’re in great form. I thought Chef Des Obeaux was worth a go at 8s/9s here – it could be he’s a moody sod but the ground was desperate enough LTO and they’d removed the CP. He was fancied to go well there but never looked interested at all. At least he didn’t have a hard race. The CP return as does M Fogarty who rode him well in the Paddy Power at Leop – I just thought if he repeated that run he’d be the one to pass approaching 2 out – this race doesn’t look anywhere near as deep to my eyes. He’d hit the front there before walking through 3 out , but somehow snapped back into a rhythm and was still upsides jumping the last. That was a 154 on RPRs and given some of his hurdle form for Nicky, I though this mark could be workable. In that Chepstow novice chase he beat a 137 rated horse by an eased down 18l. While this will be tough off top weight, that Paddy P run showed he can carry it – and he could trap along on the front end here, if the CP/jockey work – they may not, and he’s scrubbed along early, but given his connections/profile I thought 8s was worth chancing.

Gordon Elliot is 0/12,1p in this race, and he’s ‘only’ 4/50 in the last 14 days – plenty of multiple entries I suspect and the places are solid, but a little niggle there. Possibly. Gigginstown are 0/14,1p in this and appear to be throwing plenty of mud again. And JPs green and gold are 0/13,1p in this in recent years.

The dangers… well Castle Oliver is progressive but I doubt JP likes his price, ahem! 🙂 He is up 9lb from LTO and does have stamina to prove – that was a novice handicap also – however, he’s fit, in form and should run his race. The trip may bring out more but that, plus the rise, is a question given he’s a 3s shot.

I could leave Cheb D K at 4s – didn’t look overpriced and is a french 10YO, who had a hard race LTO. I’m not sure he looks well handicapped and given Elliot’s record in this to date, I could leave at the price. But again arrives in form, and could be thereabouts. I’m not sure that was a great race LTO, as it turned out.

The main danger? I should mention Bonbon Au Miel at 12s given it’s Mullins- his RP quote suggests he may come on for this run, 725 days off (although there’s enough there to give you hope). Given his profile/how he was campaigned when last seen, you’d think a mark of 138 may be very lenient if they get him back. The market may or may not guide – IF he was A1, and ran his race, well – none of us would be shocked if he went close/bolted up, but some guessing a bit as to fitness/well being. This may have been the plan, or they’ve pencilled in something else- a good run here, then the Irish Nat? But it’s Mullins and maybe i’ll regret not throwing 1 point at him – possible saver material just in case, and I see Stewart likes him, and his Irish eyes are solid

He’d probably be the most annoying at the prices but he is risky to a point –  I wasn’t that close to any of the others… I will mention Red Jack who could be the JP plot in this. He’s had so many issues and can fall/UR , as you can see by his record. But he used to be smart and is lightly raced for his age – he also got a very tender ride LTO from the back, when a stablemate won – and this trip may suit better – I can see why he’s been nibbled at and maybe he’s the main danger in this although i’m not sure he will be good enough. Still, he has plenty of questions, not that i’m destined to get horses in these colours right that often!

Pace – well Chef should have no excuse if running as he did two starts ago. He can trap along on/near the front end and I hope he does. He could have too much toe for some of these early.

Right, back to The Festival which is the only tipping focus from now on in until next Saturday.

 

About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

15 Comments

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  • Evening,

    Write ups done in morning.

    15:15 Naas
    BON BON AU MEIL 1pt win 8/1 gen
    CHEF DES OBEAUX 1pt win 9/1 gen 11/1 with 365

    More to follow tomorrow morning I feel.

    Stewart 07/03/20 7:27 PM Reply


    • I know, I know, can hear you saying all he`s done here is pick W Mullins horses, but, the prices are good and I just couldn`t see anything else apart form the favourite troubling these two.I`ll make a case for them, here goes.
      BONBON AU MIEL
      He has really smart form against some of the top chasers in both Irish and GB circles, he handles the sloppy conditions and if anyone can nurture a horse back to fitness first time out it`s Mr Mullins, the interesting thing for me is this fella has the top Racing Post rating having not raced for over 725 days which as I say is a bit odd and shows the measure of the horse and who/what he has beaten previously, another pointer is that he has come here instead of running / or running in the Kim Muir where he did have an entry also, all positives for me and he will have my cash on today, because of it, value at 8`s/9`s.
      CHEF DES OBEAUX
      Key to this one is running left handed, looking at his form, majority of his wins and places have been on left handed tracks, horses like this that like LH tracks when jumping the other way, skew themselves and are at risk of injury and in big fields this is more common due to the amount of bumping and scrimmaging that happens. His only win over RH track was in a small field novice hurdle, so, he saw plenty of daylight. Mr Fogarty gets the leg up on him again today and he was travelling really smoothly at Leopardstown over Christmas jumping from fence to fence with aplomb and just tiring on the run in, his crusing speed may be what gets him round here and if he`s in the vanguard watch out!

      Stewart 08/03/20 6:12 AM Reply


    • I don`t think I got that wrong I just believe the going was attritional out there, both CDO and BBM ran well till turning in, it was a muddling race and I don`t think much can be taken form wise from it, as the jockeys said the ground was “dead” out there, so, it was neither sloppy nor good side of soft…real head scratcher for later in the year form wise, anyhoo, we move on!

      Stewart 08/03/20 4:31 PM Reply


  • 15:35 Warwick
    FLEMINSPORT 1pt win 13/2 gen
    GOODNIGHT CHARLIE 1pt win 12/1 gen

    write ups in morning.

    Stewart 07/03/20 8:06 PM Reply


    • FLEMINPORT
      Now, it`s Jonjo O`Niell, it could be anything, but, believe Fleminport has been crying out for a longer distance like this and Jonjo has finally seen sense, (Only joking Jonjo 🙂 just in case he is reading this, he knows far more than me), his cruising speed is quite good and if he could be ridden a little more aggressively I think he can really take the race by the scruff of the neck and grind it out, we shall see, but, thought 13/2 was a little on the long side considering the opposition he has ran against previously.
      GOODNIGHT CHARLIE
      Been here seen it done it etc, yes it`s another year on, but, the same rules apply as last year, she is still quirky, she may finish out the back of the tv, but, if she is on one of her going days….watch out that 12/1 will look like Christmas has come early! Joking aside I think she runs her best races on the going, likes Warwick and its up and down undulations, is joint top RP Rated and has a high cruising speed, there will be a lot here who want to rule the roost, but, she may bully them all out of the way again and with Bridget back in the plate they should give us a run for our money!
      Just a note on Spiders Web, have not selected him here as he was taken out the other day because of ground concerns, with the forecast rain for Warwick today I wouldn`t be surprised if he gets pulled again….not great for the rule 4 aspect of it and as I have bemoaned many a time on here, surely you know first thing in a morning whether you are going to run or not?

      Stewart 08/03/20 6:41 AM Reply


  • Having had 3 cracking days in a row, yesterday Baby Ticker was my biggest bet 7 pts @ 17.1 bfsp 🙂 nice one Josh, i have a very nice pot for Chelts and am going to ease right back till then so just a couple of L15’s today for tiny stakes.
    Southwell.
    1-50. Battleofthesomme
    2-50. Tractor Fred
    3-55. Irish Odyssey
    5-30. Oleg
    20p win
    Nass.
    3-15. General Principle
    Warwick.
    3-05. Avantgardist
    3-35. Goodnight Charlie
    4-10. Collodi
    10p ew

    martin whittle 08/03/20 7:17 AM Reply


    • Well done on your recent wins. What about increasing your staking?

      Always nice to have a pot for Cheltenham. My advice to all is to avoid too many singles unless you just want to stay even or make a profit, which is OK if that is what you look for. Bookmakers generosity this week re odds offers and place increases mean that the way to go is with each way multiples for a potential big pot.
      Some races are very very tricky such as The Champion Chase and I will avoid those ones. Good luck to all anyway.

      Martin Colwell 08/03/20 11:55 AM Reply


      • I agree with the multiples approach Martin, much more fun especially if you’re picking 2,3 or more in races.

        Chris Albin 08/03/20 1:21 PM Reply


  • ON THE BRIDLE
    4.40 Warwick Perfect Man

    COLINS BETS/ VICTORY/WHISPERS
    No bets
    Colin

    cleafe 08/03/20 10:24 AM Reply


  • Guest Tipster… just to note I don’t think Miles tips on Sundays, although there’s no AW/Flat today anyway.
    Josh

    Josh 08/03/20 10:34 AM Reply


    • Ahem, four flat races at Southwell. 🙂

      Mark Curtis 08/03/20 12:01 PM Reply


      • blimey, I do apologise!! I beg your forgiveness 🙂 – ah well in that case then he does take Sunday’s off – i’ll double check but I think I read that in the service intro etc

        Josh 08/03/20 1:47 PM Reply


  • Worst day in my racing life.
    Saturday 10th November 12.45 Cheltenham, Alaoui sadly lost his life.
    This 8 year old had the potential to go all the way according to Dai Williams the trainer for this years Scottish National and next years Grand National were on the agenda.
    Alaoui previous race was at Warwick which he won has he liked making it 2 out of 2 races won, so on to Cheltenham.
    Brendan Powell was in the plate today and in the paddock Dai told him to drop off the pace early and to make move 3 out and will see if Alaoui is good enough for the Scottish National.
    Watching the race with Dai after a few fences Brendan was 20 plus lengths behind and it crossed my mind that Dai had got his assessment of Aaoui’s ability wrong, then Brendan made his move and they made rapid headway and strongly believe to this day if Alaoui had not fell at the 3rd last he would have won the race and who knows what may have happened in the future.
    After the fall remember running down the course with Dai has we got closer to the screens just knew Alaoui would not make it, so for me not being an owner decided not to witness the end and walked up the course in tears and not ashamed.
    We had all arranged to meet in the bar soon as it was all over and had total disgust for some of the owners were laughing and saying its only a horse can always buy another one they did not have the mentality to understand that Alaoui could have been a once in a lifetime horse for Dai
    Beverley who was Dai’s partner took it so badly she had to see the course Doctor and her heart stopped beating thankfuly she made a full recovery,when idiot owners are clueless what a racehorse means to trainers wifes and stable staff they are in most cases their children.
    RIP Alaoui for you gave me some happy memories alongside my worst memory in racing.
    Colin.

    cleafe 08/03/20 11:03 AM Reply


    • Should add the disgusting owners were not Alaoui’s owners for Alaoui was owned by Paddy Moore(Beverley’s father ) and Miss B.W. Palmer.
      Paddy and myself spent 2 hours trying to find Dai and at long last found him in a corner of the Guiness beer tent rather drunk.

      cleafe 08/03/20 11:13 AM Reply


  • I’ll kick of the day with a short price win Treble at warwick.
    Nickolson
    Litterale ci
    Young Darling

    3.05 Steal a march win/ Sandymount Rose ew

    3.35 Goodnight Charlie ew/ Vinnie Lewis ew/ Spiders Bite ew.

    Mike

    michael Dennis 08/03/20 1:29 PM Reply


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