Members Daily Post: 07/03/20 (complete)

1. My Tips

2.Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.General messages/updates/new reports etc

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1. My Tips

Daily Chase Tips Main (2019: 24/165, 49p +16.8 ) Jumps Festival Tips (2018:+143; 2019: 6/99,27p, -45.8,)

Daily Chase Tips: Main (2020: 3/43,9p, -26.8)

(handicap chases, 2m7f+, C4+) 

None on Sat. A decent C3 from Warwick tomorrow I’ll look at before all eyes on Cheltenham where i’ll hope to kick into life! I’m reading the races / danger horses etc just fine generally as per write ups, but either playing in races that I should be leaving, or picking the wrong ones. I’m looking forward to next week’s unique test and with any luck will build on recent Festivals which have generally been kind to us. 

 

Best of The Blog? (test: 2/18, 8p; -5.7)

None. (i haven’t looked at the content below in any depth, decided take the day off analysis wise, given what’s coming) 

 

2.Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

JUMPS

Ayr

2.30 –

Baby Ticker (HcH) w2 H3 I1 G1 12/1 S1 S4 WON 12/1 (17.1 BFSP) 

Animore (HcH) w2 G3 10/1 S1 UP

3.05 – Eternally Yours (HcH) I3 G3 11/2 3rd

4.15 – Top Billing (micro distance and runs) 14,30 ES+ 13/2 S3A 3rd

 

Hereford

2.55 – King Uther (all Hc’s) 12/1

5.15 –

Little Ginge (all Hc’s) 13/2 

Lady Chartreuse (all Hc’s) 8/1 

 

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Please Read: All information re the members club and how to engage in the content, what all the red symbols mean, etc. Inc contact info, research articles ,Guest Tipster info can be found HERE>>>

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3.Micro System Test Zone

Chase Eye-Catchers 2019/20 

5.15 Here – Frankly Speaking (3rd run – hurdles though/1st for Fergal) I1 G3 9/2 2nd

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4.General messages/updates/new reports etc

Cheltenham Festival 2020 Master Post: READ HERE>>>

-The ‘Master Post’ includes various links inc main stats report, the plan for the week, betting banks etc

(Martin has kindly added some notes from the London Racing Club preview evening – found in the comments of my Liv preview post, scroll down to the comments here>>> )

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About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

15 Comments

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  • I`m going to stick my neck and reputation on the line here, but, do believe that we have a good opportunity to put some coffers in the bank ready for Cheltenham.
    16:00 Gowran Park
    THE LONG MILE 3pt win currently 9/4 gen, but, think it may drift to 3/1
    I have gone against my principles here and I may regret it, but, I`m dutching this and making profit whichever one wins, granted, if the short price one comes in then I will only be making a small profit at just over evens for the bet. So, the horse, he has won here, on heavy ground and will appreciate this step up in class and trip, this is a nice little pot and I do believe after he won here LTO, they have decided to bring him here rather than go to Naas tomorrow, which is the Leinster National and a bigger pot, so, the trainer obviously must have had a say in this, as he was targeting the Novice event in February which TLM won, same jockey on board again today and I think he liked Naas more than GP, so, seems a tip in itself they have come here rather than go to Naas.
    ALLARDYCE 1pt win 16/1
    This horse is quirky and I know the rules “you shouldn’t`t back a horse with a LTO PU”, but, he has peaked my interest here in a field full of muddling horses, apart from the favourite, they all have question marks about them and I suppose this one has too, but, he has course form which is really important here, especially when the going needs getting. Having watched his two runs and wins just previous to the PU I thought he needed the sloppy ground to show to best effect what he does, which is speed, that can be both a curse and a blessing, if he hits one wrong at speed it`s game over, (if you can, look at his LTO, he runs into fences at 100 mph and I think he needs an undulating track and heavy ground to slow him down a little, otherwise he parts the birch and from there on in he struggles). 16/1 is far too big and I feel he may just shock here.

    As always hope all jockeys and horses come back safe and sound and good luck with whatever your selections are today!

    Stewart 07/03/20 7:54 AM Reply


    • I know it`s not great, but, my race reading eyes were about right on that one, Luke ran him pretty much the same as last time out and he quickened up well after the last to win comfortably. Allardyce did his usual, parted the birch on a few and I think this maybe was too hot for him..that said, if there is a lesser race here before the ground dries up? As for Spiders Web, he has completely lost his way after a promising start over jumps, maybe a change of trainer? Suppose he may want better ground, maybe Punchestown festival will let him maybe have a last hurrah, or, put his mind back on the job, either way, suppose he got round today….that is a plus.

      Stewart 07/03/20 4:33 PM Reply


  • Anybody got a strong fancy for Wolves 1-35 ? i have a risk free bet carried over from last weeks ITV racing and haven’t a clue.

    martin whittle 07/03/20 7:56 AM Reply


    • quite like the look of rathbone e.w. not done the distance but stayed on well over 7f. last 2. and last race 2 runs 2 wins from horse that finished 6 and 11

      Peter Sharp 07/03/20 9:30 AM Reply


  • MONTHLY GUEST TIPSTER (Feb: +6.15 / March: 4/7,7p, +18.6)

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    usually between 10-11. Info on the Guest tipsters can be found in the Welcome Post link in Section 2.

    Tips below…

    Josh 07/03/20 8:00 AM Reply


    • Morning Update
      Morning all. Two were picked last night and they’re both still fine with no new ones to add.

      2.10 Wolverhampton. Concierge. Win. was 5 WillHill/888Sport/Boyles. Now 5 various

      5.25 Chelmsford. Spanish Mane. Each-way. was was 10 Unibet/PaddyPower/Betfair Sportsbook/WillHill. Now 10 various

      Here’s last night’s post:

      Two early bets
      Evening all. Our Man In Havana is a non-runner tonight but wins from the two that have run to make it a nice start for the month and particularly pleasing that Chloellie won because that gives a form boost to one of the two for tomorrow…

      2.10 Wolverhampton. Concierge. Win. 5 WillHill/888Sport/Boyles

      5.25 Chelmsford. Spanish Mane. Each-way. 10 Unibet/PaddyPower/Betfair Sportsbook/WillHill

      The 2.10 at Wolverhampton tomorrow is full of hold-up horses, especially drawn low, and that should make it easier for Silvestre De Sousa and Concierge to get out into a prominent position and be well placed if this is steadily run.

      De Sousa has ridden him four times, winning in three of those and with William Buick and Oisin Murphy having also ridden him at different times, it’s clear he’s been highly thought of.

      Once rated 99, despite going up for winning last time out, he’s now rated 91 and running off a very workable mark. He won last time out even though little went his way. He was caught a little flat-footed at the start and had to work to gain a position. He was then held in a pocket and had to wait for a run but after being switched he picked up nicely, showing an impressive turn of foot. That was in a 0-105 and tomorrow’s hidden drop in grade into a 0-95 is well within his capabilities.

      Spanish Mane has been running in much better races than she faces tomorrow. She was third last time out in a 0-70, narrowly beaten by Chloellie and ahead of Penarth Pier who has also won since. Dropping into a terrible 0-50 will be much easier.

      She’s won three times on turf off higher marks and her price is probably as high as it is because she’s unproven on artificial surfaces but she’s had limited opportunies and that last run went a long way towards removing those doubts.

      Josh 07/03/20 10:50 AM Reply


      • Well done to the guest tipster yesterday – off to a cracking start!! Thanks Josh, welcome addition
        Harry

        harrys 07/03/20 11:01 AM Reply


        • Hear hear, most impressed with the great start.

          Mark Curtis 07/03/20 11:08 AM Reply


          • i’ll echo that, yesterday 2 x £2 ew singles and a £1 ew double, £10 staked returned £200-35 a nice chunk for the Cheltenham fund -:) .

            martin whittle 07/03/20 11:22 AM Reply


            • No problem gents, it’s going well so far for sure, hopefully can keep ticking along but ifd have taken +18 over the month. The write ups again are informative imo, and as always there to play as you please, always advise starting small/having some fun and sounds like you had a good day Martin. On flip side taking a watch and see/dip in as you please approach isn’t a bad thing either.
              I try and find people who I know are good etc and +24 and counting isn’t to be sniffed at. I’d take +10 a month on average from said guest tipsters but time will tell.

              Josh 07/03/20 12:26 PM Reply


  • COLINS BETS/VICTORY
    No bets

    ON THE BRIDLE
    1.35 Wolverhampton Via Serendipity
    3.55 Wolverhampton Godfather
    7.00 Chelmsford Carnival Rose

    WHISPERS
    2.10 Wolverhampton Desert Doctor
    Ed Walker says that it has arrived back from its stint in Dubai very well, it also won the race last year.
    Colin

    cleafe 07/03/20 10:17 AM Reply


  • Hi Josh – “Harry’s Historical Fact of the week”. The Wulfruna Stakes
    The Lady Wulfruna Stakes is a Listed flat horse race open to horses aged four years and over. It is run at Wolverhampton over a distance of 7 furlongs and 36 yards, and takes place each year in March.
    The race is named after Wulfrun (Lady Wulfruna), the grand-daughter of King Ethelred I and Queen Aethelflaed.
    For those that like a bit of history the link for more info on Lady Wulfruna is below, a short but interesting read
    http://www.wolverhamptonhistory.org.uk/people/local/wulfruna
    The race was first run in 2002 and was won by Ai Mail ridden by George Baker the race was awarded Listed status in 2007.
    Not a lot to go at history wise, so just a few simple stats.
    Two horses have won the race twice – Border Music – 2006, 2007 and Dunelight – 2010, 2011
    Two jockeys have 2 wins each – Joe Fanning – Sovereign Debt (2015), Mister Universe (2016) and
    Ryan Moore – Dunelight (2010), Second Thought (2018)
    Three trainers have 2 wins – Andrew Balding – Border Music (2006, 2007),
    Clive Cox – Dunelight (2010, 2011) and Marco Botti – Ceremonial Jade (2009), Solar Deity (2013)
    I’m sure I must have had the 2003 winner – Rafferty ridden by Darryl Holland – as that’s my partners surname (who needs form!!)
    I’ve only gone back to 2016 for the replay – I won’t give the game away again – and what a finish!!
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U3y4K_I-9uQ
    If anyone is interested I will try and get something up for each day of the festival

    harrys 07/03/20 11:01 AM Reply


    • I think that would be a great idea, Harry!

      dougandnicky 07/03/20 12:00 PM Reply


    • I do enjoy reading /watching these Harry, the more the merrier… Could do something on the x4 Championship races or something maybe.

      Josh 07/03/20 12:22 PM Reply


  • AW T/T
    Apologies for the late post.

    5.35 C Duke Debonair…33/1…j osbourne cl
    7.00 C Poetic Era…12/1…D simcock hcp

    Mike

    michael Dennis 07/03/20 3:01 PM Reply


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