Members Daily Post: 06/03/20 (complete)

1. My Tips

2.Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.General messages/updates/new reports etc

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1. My Tips

Daily Chase Tips Main (2019: 24/165, 49p +16.8 ) Jumps Festival Tips (2018:+143; 2019: 6/99,27p, -45.8,)

Daily Chase Tips: Main (2020: 3/42,9p, -25.8)

(handicap chases, 2m7f+, C4+) 

3.55 FL – Heavenly Promise – 1 point win – 5/1 (gen/bog) PU, 8/1 – the market told us everything there this time, Pres was smashed in from 2s to 6/5, and the selection walked, esp on the machine. She was poor, travelled ok but stopped to nothing on the turn for home. 

that’s all for main tips, as of 9am, write up at bottom of post…

 

Best of The Blog? (test: 2/18, 8p; -5.7)

None.

 

2.Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

JUMPS

Ffos Las

3.55 – Cruising Bye (micro going) 33/1

4.30 –

Never Equalled (m dist) 10/1

Astra Via (HcH) H3 G3 9/2 

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TTP Chase Micros 2019/20 (6/1<)

3.55 FL – Cruising Bye 33/1

 

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Please Read: All information regarding the members club and how to engage in the content, what all the red symbols mean etc. Inc contact info, research articles and much more can be found HERE>>>

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3.Micro System Test Zone

Chase Angles 2019/20

2.50 FL – Madera Mist I3 G1 13/2 

Jockey Angles 2019/20 

2.15 FL – Precious Eleanor (16/1<) H3 I3 G1 9/2 

 

 

4.General messages/updates/new reports etc

Cheltenham Festival 2020 Master Post: READ HERE>>>

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Write up…

Heavenly Promise – I thought 5s was more than fair here given her overall profile since moving to Fergals – she’s yet to run a bad race really – she jumps well, stays well, handles the ground, should just keep going and she’s a CD winner. Paddy is riding at the top of his game also and tends to ride testing conditions very well … actually on Fergal’s handicappers in heavy he’s 7/23,15p in the last 2 years. They’re going well together in recent weeks also, 3/12,7p in the last 14 days, 6/21, 12p in the last 30. Back to this Mare- well she is 9 and hardy, which is no bad thing in these conditions – she actually looked progressive for Fergal earlier in the season and her winning chase run ended when bumping into Sheneededtherun – that mare would go on to win her next two comfortably and rate much higher. She didn’t run well on her next start at Hereford but you can excuse one bad run, but ran ok back over hurdles LTO – she had been on the go a while and the 53 day break could be a positive also, if they’ve freshened her up – and i think it’s a positive that her first run back is over a CD where she’s won. She generally travels well and i’ll trust Paddy to have her in the right place. 

Of the rest… well there’s no horse in here which would annoy me at the prices, given their profiles – it’s that sort of race where something may bounce into form or be inspired by conditions but many have plenty of questions. 

Pres is the obvious danger and maybe i’ll pay for taking on another Fav as per yesterday but I didn’t think the overall level of his chase form to date was any better than the selection. This is also his first run at the course and he returns 7 days later after what may have been a hard race LTO. It’s the first time he’s made a quick return in his career to date – he may well relish it, but it is a question given he’s 2s. He will race prominently and generally jumps well – if he runs his race he should be the one to pass up the straight, but Paddy will do him after the last 🙂 

I did think it was between those two, which given the market isn’t saying anything revelatory. Nickname exit is interesting to a point I suppose – conditions should be fine and he should enjoy this move up in trip. The booking of Dickie may be significant given he wants winners. The yard are going well and he won on his second start after a return when last seen (before LTO). He does have a patchy profile though now and his recent form isn’t much to shout home about. He needs to run his race and hope the two above fold I though. I couldn’t be tempted in at 8s and he was just a bit too poor for me LTO. Too risky. 

Pace wise… well Pres will go forward, Dickie may be aggressive enough. Paddy may be patient on mine as she’s normally ridden further back, but travels/jumps well and usually moves up in good time. He may decide to track the pace though. I thought she shouldn’t be 3 points bigger than the fav, and we shall see if I’ve got that right in a few hours time. 

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Not much to say about yesterday – the CP appear to have worked for Air Nav when used 1st time but haven’t done much since- when his head is in racing mode he travels like a horse with a bit in hand, but he’s clearly a character – that ground did go from good to soft (soft in places) to heavy which I didn’t really expect, but not an excuse. He finished 3,5L ahead of the winner a couple of starts back at the track, but didn’t run anywhere as well. I thought that price disparity was too big but have got that wrong. He was well stuffed and lucky to finish 2nd. Broadclyst was running well when falling 2 out – I thought it looked a tired fall and he would have been beaten, but he travelled well again through that. I would move him to a better chase trainer if he were mine as there is something in the tank, and maybe they will find a race for him, but he has a few questions now. 

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About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

24 Comments

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  • I wonder if horse racing will brush this under the carpet and continue to praise this scumbag over the coming flat season – https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-51756984

    Chris Albin 05/03/20 9:02 PM Reply


    • Probably get brushed under the carpet,money talks.

      Andy Ness 06/03/20 8:52 AM Reply


  • AW T/T

    3.40 C Al Asef…10/1
    4.15 C Vexed… 7/4
    4.45 W Papa Stour 6/4
    8.30 W Our man in Havana 8/1

    Mike

    michael Dennis 05/03/20 11:29 PM Reply


  • Hope this is alright to post Josh, link to HBF page on the level of protection each bookie has https://ukhbf.org/betting-charter/hbf-register-of-protection-of-funds/

    martin whittle 06/03/20 7:16 AM Reply


    • yep no problem, anything from HBF usually fine! 🙂

      Josh 06/03/20 7:29 AM Reply


    • What an eyeopener, did strongly believe that all bookmakers had to have customer protection, just shows what contemp bookmakers have for there customers, the ones who have protection well done.
      Bet Fred disgraceful and they were allowed to buy the Tote and they made a valiant attempt to destroy it for there own gains, thankfuly they have sold it, can the new owners bring it back to life?
      Colin.

      cleafe 06/03/20 9:12 AM Reply


    • Nice work Martin
      I checked my accounts out last week and just left Betfair and Bet Victor alone. The rest I withdrew and just left bits in to use as and when so if they do do a MoPlay on me, I’ll lose very little.

      freezing1 06/03/20 9:45 AM Reply


  • Freedelivery @ 7/1 – 15.25 Ffos Las
    Still Believing @ 7/1 – 15.55 Ffos Las
    Never Equalled @ 9/1 – 16.30 Ffos Las
    Bob Ford @ 7/1 – 17.00 Ffos Las
    an ew L15 as long as there are no n/r’s

    martin whittle 06/03/20 7:38 AM Reply


  • Sadly Sandown has been abandoned tomorrow, 18mm of rain yesterday, waterlogged.

    Josh 06/03/20 9:48 AM Reply


  • One for today.

    3.25 Ffos Las, Another Tuco, 5/1, 1.5 points each way.

    Drops back in distance, cheek-pieces on, being backed.

    Good luck.

    Martin Colwell 06/03/20 10:15 AM Reply


  • VICTORY
    5.30 Wolverhampton Sonnet Rose
    nice winner yesteray with Tathmeen

    COLINS BETS/ON THE BRIDLE
    No bets today
    Colin

    cleafe 06/03/20 10:19 AM Reply


  • MONTHLY GUEST TIPSTER (Feb: +6.15 / March: 4/7,7p, +18.6)

    Morning Update
    Our Man In Havana is a non-runner, leaving one from last night which is still fine, plus one to be added now.

    6.30 Wolverhampton. Chloellie. Each-way. was 11 Betfair Sportsbook/PaddyPower, 10 BetVictor. Now 9 various

    8.30 Wolverhampton. Our Man In Havana. Each-way. Non Runner

    New Addition

    3.10 Chelmsford. Tomshalfbrother. Each-way. 13 various

    Tomshalfbrother should improve for a falling mark, a drop in class, a jockey upgrade and a step up in trip having looked in need of further since coming back from a year off the track.

    Josh 06/03/20 10:34 AM Reply


    • luck must be changing just fancied these 2 today and 2 x £2 ew singles and a £1 ew double, £10 staked returned £200-35 🙂 a nice chunk for the Cheltenham fund.

      martin whittle 06/03/20 6:50 PM Reply


  • Was there any write-up for Chloellie please?

    Mark Curtis 06/03/20 11:00 AM Reply


    • Nope, shorter post than usual last night/today – I think some family issue or other.

      Josh 06/03/20 11:13 AM Reply


  • I don’t know if this has been linked already, but Ruby Walsh gives a fascinating insight in what it takes to ride the Cheltenham courses successfully. A revelation to me. (I think any novice jockey arriving with a ride at Cheltenham might do well to watch.)
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i596M4wsHkQ

    manyanga 06/03/20 11:55 AM Reply


    • Good stuff, it’s on the list to watch later/tomorrow- the Road To Cheltenham progs have been superb, and all on Youtube I believe, no need for an RTV subscription.

      Josh 06/03/20 11:57 AM Reply


  • I have posted up my notes from The London Racing Club Cheltenham preview evening in the Preview blog on the site. I have not checked the detail of what the panellists said. There was a fair bit of disagreement on the night.

    Martin Colwell 06/03/20 2:09 PM Reply


    • Hmm, I can’t see them, or in comments on my dashboard back end.. you sure you pressed post? 🙂

      Josh 06/03/20 2:11 PM Reply


      • Yes and i posted it again but it did not appear?

        I will email you the Word document and you can put it on.

        M

        Martin Colwell 06/03/20 2:40 PM Reply


        • Hmm not sure what’s happened there then… anyway I’ve just posted them up in the comments – much appreciated, decent note taking!

          Can be found here>>>
          https://racingtoprofit.co.uk/2020/03/03/festivalpreview/

          Josh

          Josh 06/03/20 2:50 PM Reply


          • Josh, aren’t these your notes from Aintree, unless AH and JP were in attendance in Londaon!.

            grundy 06/03/20 6:11 PM Reply


            • Ha… No the main post is… Martins notes are in the comments! Scroll down

              Josh 06/03/20 6:25 PM Reply


  • Wow, what a day, between the guest tipster and the sandy boys I’ve got my bank for Josh next week! Thanks all, timing is everything!

    James Barker 06/03/20 7:37 PM Reply


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