Members Daily Post: 05/03/20 (complete)

main tip x1, section 2 (complete), test zone

1. My Tips

2.Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.General messages/updates/new reports etc

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1. My Tips

Daily Chase Tips Main (2019: 24/165, 49p +16.8 ) Jumps Festival Tips (2018:+143; 2019: 6/99,27p, -45.8,)

Daily Chase Tips: Main (2020: 3/42,9p, -25.8)

(handicap chases, 2m7f+, C4+) 

4.45 Winc – AIR NAVIGATOR – 1 point win – 7/1 (bet365/Lad/Coral) 2nd 9/2 (15R4) although well stuffed and would have been 4th but for last fence carnage, but the fav was travelling all over them. He’s run his race where all bar Broadclyst, who took a tired fall 2 out, put in an effort. 

that’s all for main tips today, as of 08.59, write up at bottom of post…

 

Best of The Blog? (test: 2/18, 8p; -5.7)

None today

 

2.Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

JUMPS

Carlisle

2.15 – Echo Express (all Hc’s) 11/2 

 

Wincanton

4.10 – Highgrove Percy (micro distance) H3  9/1 

 

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Please Read: All information regarding the members club and how to engage in the content, what all the red symbols mean etc. Inc contact info, research articles and much more can be found HERE>>>

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3.Micro System Test Zone

Chase Angles 2019/20 

4.45 Winc – Quite by Chance 4/1 

Chase Eye-Catchers 2019/20 

4.45 Winc – Broadclyst (3rd run) I3  9/2 

 

4.General messages/updates/new reports etc

Cheltenham Festival 2020

  • Master Report : READ HERE>>>
    • (updated version as of 19.21, 03/03, a typo in Ultima stats) 
  • Liverpool Preview Evening Notes: READ HERE>>> (worth a read) 
  • Members/Readers Ante Post Chat: READ HERE>>>

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Write up…

4.45 Winc – 

Air Navigator – 

I thought 7s or so looked big here and i’m not sure why he’s bigger than both Le Boizelo and Broadclyst, based on that run here two starts back. I think it’s an over reaction to that P next to his name – that was truly woeful ground at Chepstow where only 3 of them finished and they were all seemingly shattered coming up the straight – he’d tracked the pace and ran well up until 3 out but then seemingly hit a wall/legs went to jelly. Provided that was the reason he should bounce back here. He still has upside potential in handicap chases I think and in these conditions. He’s 6lb lower than a fine effort at Newbury last March when chasing home two unexposed higher rated rivals , who’d go on to win again that season. He was also given too much to do and was staying on, over 23f, not beaten far. His next two starts can be ignored after that, over the wrong trip/would have needed his return. He ran here NTO on ground probably lively enough and in any case i’m not sure Tom George was firing as he is now. Then there was that 3L defeat two starts back, again probably ridden too cold but staying on, beaten 3l, Worthy Farm (who’d win NTO also) and Broadclyst in front. That was his first run in CP which seemed to help him, although the Heavy there was probably as testing as he wants it, certainly over that trip. 

Johnny Burke has tended to ride him more prominently and i hope he tries to track the pace here, rather than holding up out the back. I think the horse will appreciate not racing on heavy – I think he wants soft, and runs as if he wants 25/26f. I think 120 looks very workable to my eyes and if he can get back to the form of two starts ago he’s no 7s shot in this line up. Tom George reports him to be in good form at home (indicating it was simply conditions that were the issue LTO – and his stats with handicap chasers that PU LTO are solid) and he couldn’t be in better form – 5/13,7p in the last 14 days – trainer/jockey are 5/11, 7p in that time. The horse has course form so trainer track stats don’t matter as much but Tom is 5/23,11p in Class 3 handicaps chases here in the last 5 years, 2/12,5p over this trip. 

I thought he ticked a lot of boxes here at the prices – hopefully Johnny tracks the pace and he runs as he did two starts back – doing better for a more prominent ride and better ground. There is some rain around but this shouldn’t be worse than soft. 

Of the rest…

I suppose the most annoying at the prices would be Waikiki Waves given I fancied him LTO in an open enough race, where he threw in the towel and never looked interested. I expected him to be up on the pace and instead he dropped himself out the back. They put the blinkers back on here but they only worked when applied for the first time, so some questions there. He’s been hesitant at his fences the last twice also – that Sandown run was decent considering and he split two subsequent winners there, and I thought may want a trip – but he does have stamina to prove in conditions, the blinkers need to work,  it’s his first run here, and the yard could be going better, 0/30,7p last 14 days. I do think there could be more to come from him when it clicks again but he’s just too risky now, although 14s may be a tad insulting on the best of his form. If Jamie decides to make his mind up with an aggressive ride, and he’s clearly travelling well on the front, I may be watching this through my hands. But he may well not get home/will be stronger stayers I think. 

The rest didn’t look overpriced to my eyes. 

Broadclyst – well i’ll give up on him for the moment- I tipped him for the first time here 3 starts back, an agonising defeat at 12s, beaten by Worthy Farm. Obviously if he repeats that run he’d be bang there, but there’s questions on that after the last two runs. He hated CP at Warwick (left him that day) and i’m not sure the track suited but he didn’t have a hard race there- he was woeful at Taunton when I had another go at a price – i’m not sure what the excuse was there but he has had 30 odd days off since. He is a maiden under rules still and you do start to have questioning his attitude now, esp at 9/2. I didn’t think that was overpriced but won’t be shocked if he  went close. 

Le Boizelo looks in the grip of the handicapper I think- I wasn’t sure why he’d finish ahead of Air Nav and Broadclyst based on that form here in Dec. If they run their races. Not at 4s. That’s not overpriced to me and he’s worth taking on. I can leave Quite By Chance, the 11 YO, at 4s. If he wins then fair play to him but I can leave, esp at that price. I can leave the other 11YO also. Barbrook Star looks out of form- we backed him to win in Nov at Warwick, in what wasn’t the strongest of races as it turned out – he won this race last year (also tipped then) but I think he needs better ground and this may be soft enough. I wasn’t sure why he’d bounce back here and could leave at 6s. 

That leaves one… Spiders Bite  – he does have upside potential over fences but has too many questions for me  – I didn’t like how he carried his head under pressure at Ascot (he is a scorpion) and he’s been awful the last twice- given the wind op that could well be the valid excuse- if that’s done the trick and he’s fit/puts it in, and repeated that Ascot 2nd in Nov 18 (all possible) he’d go very close here and could be well handicapped. He is unexposed in handicap chases. The Daly yard are flying but just a few too many ifs for me at what was 6s, but some money is coming. Not a surprising winner and he could be the one in this who could bolt up if it clicks, but his price wasn’t big enough for me. 

Pace – no out and out front runners in this- Dickie may be aggressive, Jamie M may mix it up , Spiders Bite will be up there, and I hope Johnny is – no excuse not to be tracking the pace in this. 

Josh 

 

 

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

19 Responses

  1. AW T/T

    No selections today.

    However there is a Derek Shaw 8f horse Its allclover now 2.35 S Maiden 66/1 which fits the stats but its NOT a Hcp. Your choice if you want a £1ew. Remember Hot Hot Hot???

    Good Luck.

    Mike

  2. Latest official statement concerning MoPlay:
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    This is complete BS as Addison Global was dissolved on Feb 18th and customers blocked from making withdrawals days earlier, surprise surprise my letters to Gambling Commision,my MP and Mr Dowden MP (minister responsible contact is enquiries@culture.gov.uk if anyone would like to bother him with this) have yet to be replied to.

    1. Martin
      still feel that in time you should get your money back but as usual they never appreciate the worry and stress this causes.
      Good luck
      Colin

  3. Morning,

    I`ve played in the 16:45 at Wincanton
    BARBROOK STAR 1pt win 6/1 13/2 available at some bookies
    I think the return of Dickie is the key to this one, last time he ran here there was a decent claiming jockey on board, but, just felt he needed too be a bit more to the fore and never really got into a rhythm, maybe it was the ground as he does like to get his toe in, not too much though, as the desperate ground at Ascot lto found him out, but, it should be spot on today. (Plus I think he always needs hos first run of the season, never won on his first start after a break, although, think he needed one after that run at Ascot.)Take the run out and he is consistent, should be in the vanguard today and is over priced at 6/1, especially seen as he won this race last year off virtually same weight and conditions.
    SPIDERS BITE 1pt win 11/2 gen
    The fly in the ointment here, so to speak, trainer having a bit of a purple patch and after reading how close Josh has been with his “2nd” choices I thought I`d split stakes also. He will love conditions, is lightly raced and I actually thought he may go to Cheltenham at one stage, his season has sort of petered out and this looks like a stepping stone to maybe something better, we shall see, if he turns up today he will give BS a run for his money and maybe Tom O`Brien can get a double in this race after winning last year on BS…

    As always hope all jockeys and horses come back safe and sound and good luck with whatever you select today.

  4. Hi all,

    Here are mine for today:

    16:10 W Earth Moor (Hobbs and Johnson, form before last run) and Midnight Midge (fresh, form)
    16:45 W Barbrook Star (Hobbs and Johnson, hoping can bounce back)

    Good luck to all
    Cheers,

  5. One for The Imperial Cup on Saturday.

    Malaya for Paul Nicholls at 10/1, 4 places, 1/4 odds. 1 point each way.

    No entry at Cheltenham and has been coming to the boil in recent runs and looks as if he has been targeted at the race.

    1. Martin
      you are a braver man than me Sandown off tomorrow waterlogged and the weather for today is rain from now until 7pm in the London area.
      Colin

      1. You get your money back if the meeting is abandoned but not if the horse withdraws. Maybe they can save Saturday if not racing Friday. It is raining here in Kent now but it was drier earlier when i took the dogs out. I am a fair way from Sandown. the ground is squelchy here.
        I think that the horse would go in the heavy maybe? It will go shorter if things do go ahead.

        As I cannot do anything about the weather and so we shall see.

  6. COLINS BETS
    3.10 Southwell Poppy May
    7.00Newcastle Hunters Step

    VICTORY
    6.00 Newcastle Tathmeen
    6.30 Newcastle I Know How

    ON THE BRIDLE
    No bet
    Colin

  7. MONTHLY GUEST TIPSTER (Feb: +6.15 / March: 1/3,3p, +4.5)

    Morning all,

    So far the morning updates have fared slightly better than the evening posts but that might be balanced out today. Glenamoy Lad is added and Charlie Arthur is still fine. Jeffrey Harris has lost his value and is not worth backing at current prices and Tilsworth Rose remained the same price overnight but was put up by Hugh Taylor this morning and is now also too short. It might be worth adding a Betfair SP bet with a minimum price in case either come back out but otherwise I’d leave them alone if not already placed.

    3.10 Southwell. Tilsworth Rose. each-way. was 8.5 WillHill/BetVictor, 8 various. Now 5.5. No bet. (6 would be fair and I’d be looking for a minimum of 6.5)

    3.45 Southwell. Charlie Arthur. win. was 2.625 WillHill, 2.5 various. Now 2.75 Unibet/888Sport,2.625 various

    8.30 Newcastle. Jeffrey Harris. win. was 6 WillHill, 5.5 various. Now 3.5. (I’d want 4.5 or better)

    New addition:

    6.30 Newcastle. Glenamoy Lad. win. 5 various

    Glenamoy Lad has always had ability but the problem is getting him into a series of runs. This will be his third run back and with a few in opposition running in a level they’re rated beneath and Glenamoy likely to improve yet still finished ahead of the favourite last time out over course and distance he’s is now a backable price having eased this morning. There should be enough pace, Michael Wigham tends to do well at the course and Joe Fanning has ridden him to victory previously.

    Here’s last night’s post:

    Early bets
    Embrace The Moment was a non-runner, Purple Paddy may have been too close to a strong pace but was still disappointingly out of the frame and Tintoretto is yet to run.

    3.10 Southwell. Tilsworth Rose. each-way. 8.5 WillHill/BetVictor, 8 various

    3.45 Southwell. Charlie Arthur. win. 2.625 WillHill, 2.5 various

    8.30 Newcastle. Jeffrey Harris. win. 6 WillHill, 5.5 various

    Three for tomorrow. Jeffrey Harris has been at his best at Newcastle’s minimum distance lately but hasn’t been helped by being in moderately run races. There looks to be more pace likely tomorrow which will help and a couple of his recent efforts need marking up.

    Last time out he was 2nd, making up plenty of ground and just finding one too good who had cruised through the race. The time before he was 4th, again making up ground but not catching Tabaahy who has won twice since and Klopp who was narrowly defeated back over course and distance last week and well clear of 3rd and the rest of the field.

    Faye McManoman takes off 5lbs and has impressed with her riding of hold-up horses at the track this year.

    Tilsoworth Rose looks overpriced at Southwell. She’s gone close on her last two runs here and this is weaker, plus it looks like the extra furlong will suit. She can be forgiven for finishing down the field at Kempton having been stuck very wide throughout and having to take a check when trying to make up some ground. Back on Fibresand and in this lowly standard she should be higher up the market.

    Charlie Arthur posted an impressive time when winning here last month despite a slow early pace. That puts him well ahead of tomorrow’s rivals who have failed to come close to that effort despite running more efficiently. He’s 2 out of 2 at the track and that should become 3 out of 3 tomorrow.

  8. Hmmm… I guess the only way to record this month’s monthly tipster would be BFSP only on everything he puts up. I can’t see how it’s possible to record bets that become no bets if you haven’t got the right price and the evening post which we don’t see is irrelevant to the month’s bottom line. I’m sure the guy knows what he’s at but it’s a tricky one to nail down record wise as a guest tipster.

    1. If the selection does not meet the minimum price suggested you can mark it up as a no bet.

    2. I have emailed him about today – uncertainty is never ideal in this game! It’s either a tip or it isn’t – I am only recording to the morning update etc – and I like that USP of the two value approaches, and he obv records levels to both – and actually is very fair with recording to prices etc (doesnt record to bog I don’t think, nor fancy places/concessions etc) –
      I’m only counting Charlie Arthur and Glenamoy Lad as tips today , in the official results ledger, regardless of what the others do etc.
      Certainty on that front is important, but I like how presented so can read through and ponder- but certainty on what is a tip and what isn’t is important.
      Josh

      1. Certainly not criticising his approach, but I would never have multiple bookie accounts as I may have said just the once before! Just the superior exchanges for me! As with any tipsters prices I always record the minimum they state and BFSP.

        I think I’ll record all his selections as normal regardless of whether he says they become no bets or need certain prices. Most of my records are automated so it’ll become too much of a faff to work out if prices are met or not.

        Automation is the cure for emotional attachment!

        I am not a bot – I typed this with myself with my own knarly sausages!

        1. oh I know, although fair criticism/questions is always valid in these parts on any of the content…
          I know you’re an exchanges only – i’m not recording to BFSP, but that’s more admin wise than anything and maybe I should, although if you’re doing it for all of them, that would be interesting to see how they perform.
          Josh

      2. Josh
        with you on this one ref uncertainty over selections for not everyone has access to phones during the day my son works for a computer comany and during working hours they cannot use their phones and would imagine many firms have the same policy.

        Chris ref BFSP agree with you and my view with the longer price say 8/1 upwards they can be 4 to 10 points or more better so this in my eyes eliminates doing EW betting unless such as his first bet which was 40/1, for also on BF exchange their place market seems to be shorter than bookmakers when have taken a look.

        For me a bet should be a bet and no grey areas, again want mine done for around 10.30am then forget racing till look at the results, certainly have another life!!!!
        Colin

  9. On another note does anyone use the Kelly criterion or part of for their betting and have any advice or suggestions on it?
    The two areas or price ranges I’d like to implement this on are between 3.0 and 5.0 BFSP currently 152 bets, 44 wins, 29% s/r and between 5.0 and 8.0 BFSP currently 162 bets, 38 wins, 23% s/r.
    Not a massive amount of bets I know but combined they account for 52% of my bets and 82% of my wins and I would like to maximise my profits on them if that’s advisable.

  10. WHISPERS
    6.00 Newcastle Chitra currently available at 9/1 at the moment, trainer expects her to go close tonight, having last time out ran in a Listed race finishing 7th out of 7 was beaten only 3 lengths and down in grade tonight to a Class 4.
    Colin

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