Members Daily Post: 03/03/20 (complete)

Best of Tip x1, Section 2 (complete), test zone, various updates

1. My Tips

2.Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.General messages/updates/new reports etc

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1. My Tips

Daily Chase Tips Main (2019: 24/165, 49p +16.8 ) Jumps Festival Tips (2018:+143; 2019: 6/99,27p, -45.8,)

Daily Chase Tips: Main (2020: 3/41,8p, -24.8)

(handicap chases, 2m7f+, C4+) 

None.

 

Best of The Blog? (test: 2/18, 8p; -5.7)

3.00 Exet – Ballybreen – 1 point win – 10/3 (WH/BV) 3/1 (gen) 2nd 7/2 – no excuse there, galling to beaten by a 15YO sent off at 66s, but credit to him/connections – no excuse, he’s set a solid pace, selection not far away – maybe if Conor had eased off when Richard P did down the back, it may have made a difference, but he wasn’t stopping come the line, a better handicapped rival has just had him – one mistake or judgement from victory. Just shows what a hard pace can do even on deep ground- those 2 have pulled that race apart and just kept rolling near end. Brave from both. Although what they were doing on the 3rd is anyone’s guess! 

that’s all for today, as of 08.34

 

2.Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

JUMPS

Exeter

3.00 – Ballybreen (all Hc’s) w1 w2  ES+ H1 I1 G1 3/1 S3A# S4 2nd 

4.00 –

Ballybough Nora (m TJC) 8/1 UP

On The Road (all Hc’s)  ES+ H3 I3 G1 2/1 S3A# S4 UP

Arcade Attraction (all Hc’s) ES+ 22/1 S2A S3A UP

4.30 –

Sabbathical (all Hc’s) w2  ES+ H3 I3  10/1 S3A#  UP

Demopolis (m goingIF hvy) 14,30 w1 w2 H1 I3 (does not qual officially, going officially Soft)  6/4 

Giga White (all Hc’s)  ES+  8/1 S3A UP

 

Newcastle……..None

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TTP Chase Micros 2019/20

3.20 Newc – Diamond Brig (9/1<) 4/1 UP

 

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Please Read: All information regarding the members club and how to engage in the content, what all the red symbols mean etc. Inc contact info, research articles and much more can be found HERE>>>

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3.Micro System Test Zone

None.

 

4.General messages/updates/new reports etc

New Micro Monday post HERE>>> (a couple of ‘monthly trainers’ for March)

Please Note: There won’t be any Tracker Tuesday or Trends Thursday post this week – i’ll pull together some trainer pointers for any big races on Sat, and if anything else jumps out, but i’m increasingly in Festival mode and don’t want to go a tad easier this week where I can.

I’m off to my annual Festival preview in Liverpool on Monday evening and will report back anything of note.

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Cheltenham Festival 2020 Master Report HERE>>> (if you missed it the other day) (I will pull together a master post soon)

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Monthly Guest Tipster

February: Final results….

Racing Consultants/Rory Delargy

44 bets / 5 wins / 13p / +6.15 points 

A solid enough start for my ‘guest monthly tipster’ experiment. Hopefully some of you enjoyed the analysis, if nothing else. If you backed any of them and came out ahead for the month, even better.

Discounts… if you do wish to continue following Rory’s Tips/previews there’s a couple of exclusive links below >>>

 

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Monthly Guest Tipster: MarchIntroductory Note HERE>>>

(40/1 EW 3rd to kick things off with on Monday, 0/1,1p, +3.5)

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‘Best of Blog Test

3.00 Exet –

Ballybreen – I don’t think this race looks very competitive and while the capper will catch up with him at some point, he still looks to be improving. He’s turned into a front running winning machine since the blinkers were applied and LTO he showed he liked a battle also. That’s worth plenty at this C5 level and he’s beaten 5 of these this season, including the next 3 in the market. Provided that run LTO hasn’t bottomed him, he should run his race again in conditions that suit. He just gallops and finds for pressure, and should attempt to make all again. His performances on all three ratings sets are eye-popping in the context of this race, which makes me think if he performs to the same level again they’re all in trouble. His run LTO was a career best, both in Inform speed and on RPRs, a 101, which makes me think 93 could be within range. He may need to step forward again, or he may just need to repeat LTO given the oppo. In any case I did think 3s looked overpriced.

Of the rest… well it’s a C5 chase and there’s plenty of rogues and horses who don’t like winning and maybe one of them will step forward. Based on their Hereford run Kilcrea Bridge could be the main danger – IF they both ran the same race, and he showed a winning attitude (doesn’t win very often,blinkers tried today which may work) then the weight swing from that day is considerable. But he’s run a couple of times since over hurdles and has more questions than the selection for me. Big Time Frank has ability at this level but just cannot keep his head in front for long enough. Now 0/18,9p over fences. One of these will drop into his lap at some point.

Anyway, i’ve got with a section 2 qual who ticks plenty of boxes to my eyes and hopefully be can bring up the four timer.

 

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

7 Responses

  1. AW T/T

    No selections today.

    Just as a matter of interest Pumblechook 5.30 S who has been mentioned a few times in hcp company for I Jardine who is our hcp man at Southwell is running in a class 6 seller at 4/1.

    Mike

  2. Josh
    the guest tipster link introductory note here is not working on my computer is it just me.
    Colin

  3. Guest Tipster/Racing Consultants update…
    Some chat in yesterday’s comments about my results keeping… I seem to have the P/L correct, but have missed 3 bets somewhere…
    They’re official results for the month are 44 bets / 5 wins/ +6.40 points (vs my +6.13)
    Josh

  4. MONTHLY GUEST TIPSTER (March: 0/1,1p, +3.5)

    (explanatory note above in section 4)

    Morning Update
    Morning all,

    Just the one last night which is still fine and nothing new to add on a quiet day. If bet not placed yet I would pause for a bit if using a bookie because it’s currently higher on exchanges and likely to increase in price with bookies shortly.

    5.00 Southwell – Moveonup – WIN – . was 3.75 various Now 3.5 Unibet, 3.25 various, a bit higher but with limited liquidity on exchanges

    Early bet for Tuesday
    A nice priced placer today, briefly looking like we might be in business but just hanging left in the run for the line. Only one meeting again tomorrow and only one bet.

    5.00 Southwell. Moveonup. win. 3.75 various

    I think it might be a good day for favourite backers at Southwell tomorrow. Tigray looks like the right one to be at the top of the market in the 2nd race, a Seller, looking reasonably handicapped and the best suited to course and distance. Going Native might be worth taking on at a short price but is in such a dreadful race he may still win even if having an off day. Parallel is likely to keep improving and win the next though Silverturnstogold may push him close.

    The fifth race may have a surprise due to most of the field running very poorly on their last run and it could be a case of who bounced back to normal. I’m not keen on Glory of Paris even though he’s the most likely to put in a decent performance because he tends to run well without going through with it and winning. Throw in a couple taking on very different distances and it becomes a bit of a lottery.

    The final race looks to be between the two favourites as well. At the prices, this collection doesn’t look worth backing and at the same it’s hard to take them on.

    However, there is a selection in the opener. Red Stripes beat Moveonup by a nose last week over course and distance and is actually on slightly better terms tomorrow. But, the prices may be an overreaction to that head bob and looking at their various runs at the course this winter, it’s the defeated one who can boast the stronger collection of form and times.

    Last week the prices were evens and 7/1 and tomorrow they’re 3/1 and 4/1 and I think they’ve closed too far. With Six Strings and Global Humour dropping in trip which is far from certain to suit and nothing else having form to compete with the best of Moveonup’s runs, I’d have him as a shorter favourite than this.

    Stall 1 is a positive on the straight sprint course, Gay Kellaway has had some others run well at the track recently and she’s borrowed Archie Watson’s apprentice to take off a useful 5 lbs.

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