Members Daily Post: 02/03/20 (complete)

No tips, Section 2 (x1), test zone

1. My Tips

2.Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.General messages/updates/new reports etc

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1. My Tips

Daily Chase Tips Main (2019: 24/165, 49p +16.8 ) Jumps Festival Tips (2018:+143; 2019: 6/99,27p, -45.8,)

Daily Chase Tips: Main (2020: 3/41,8p, -24.8)

None.

 

Best of The Blog? (test: 2/17, 7p; -4.7)

None today.

 

2.Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

JUMPS

Wetherby 

4.15 – Flegmatik (micro TJC) ES+ H3 10/3 S3A 3rd

 

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Please Read: All information regarding the members club and how to engage in the content, what all the red symbols mean etc. Inc contact info, research articles and much more can be found HERE>>>

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3.Micro System Test Zone

Chase Angles 2019/20

Trainers

2.35 Weth – Snougar (14/1<) H3 I3 9/2 WON 9/2>11/2 

2.35 Weth – The Crazed Moon (any) H1 G3 1/1 UP

3.4o Weth – Envol De La Cour (any) 11/2 UP

4.45 Weth – Albertos Dream (12/1<) 10/1 UP

LTO Winning Trainers

4.45 Weth – Spirit Of Hale H1 I1 3/1 3rd 5/1 

 

4.General messages/updates/new reports etc

Updates to follow… Monthly Guest Tipster, Micro Monday (inc new ‘monthly trainer’) 

 

Monthly Guest Tipster

February: Final results….

41 bets / 5 wins / 13p / +6.15 points 

A solid enough start for my ‘guest monthly tipster’ experiment. Hopefully some of you enjoyed the analysis, if nothing else. If you backed them/some of them and came out ahead for the month, even better. I will get a discount link asap for anyone interested in carrying on, although that isn’t the aim of posting them in here – the main drive being to add some informative/interesting content that over time will be profitable. I think that takes Rory to around +20 points or so for 2020 to date.

Monthly Guest Tipster: MarchIntroductory Note HERE>>>

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

35 Responses

  1. COLINS BETS
    Wolverhampton
    4.45 Creative Talent
    5.15 Cheeky Rascal
    5.45 Tabaahy

    ON THE BRIDLE
    5.15 Traveller
    7.45 Bowling Russian
    Colin

  2. C’mon Josh get a wiggle on, things to do places to go i know you got stung by a hornet this weekend but you’ll still win the league by a mile 🙂

    1. Ha, I was so hoping to go through undefeated but alas, in truth that had been coming for a few games. They were the better team by far.
      I try and aim to be up by 8am latest on odd occasion I post on the morning 🙂 And I was half waiting for news on Weths inspection so that I wasn’t wasting any time etc, but they’re fine.
      Josh

  3. Morning all,

    I really can’t see how Cheltenham gets the go-ahead. With more and more countries putting limits on gatherings and with the Government being keen to be seen to be doing something, I fear that the Festival will be a victim as much for political as health reasons.

    Ben

    1. Surely then, ‘they’ will have to cancel ALL sports events and ALL social gatherings. I just dont see it.

    2. I mean none of us really know, and I haven’t spent much time thinking about it. It’s all just guessing and we are best just waiting until the gvt gives instructions.
      However I suspect there may come a point when we are all more concerned about the spread of the virus than whether racing goes ahead!

      Although I was pondering what would happen if all sport/gatherings etc is just shut down for a few months. I’d like to think racing may just carry on behind closed doors, but again, who knows. That will be the least of our concerns mind.

      1. As I see it, the Govt. realise that the NHS cannot cope with a winter outbreak so are doing everything possible to contain it until the summer. For that reason I cannot see them allowing Cheltenham to go ahead – a gathering of 250,000 over four days? No way.
        Phil

        1. The experts I saw were saying that we are a long way off a pandemic, months at Nleast if it happens. If you read ‘The Signal and the Noise’ by Nate Silver he has a chapter that covers the story and panic and analysis of various flu outbreaks over the years. Most enlightening and almost all cases were overstated and mishandled. I have had a decent bet on the festival going ahead. Numbers are very small at present but we do not want it to spread. We shall see, but as Corporal Jones would say ‘dont panic, dont panic!’.

          So do not worry. I shall see you there on Tuesday. You can buy me a Guinness.

          I have a master plan to win thousands this festival but more next week.

          1. If the infections reach 100 by the end of the week I reckon it will be cancelled.

          2. when it reaches the Spanish Flu levels of 1918/19 i’ll start to worry, 500m infected 50m deaths . I don’t think they will start wholesale sporting event shutdowns just yet as most are outdoors it’s much easier for a virus to spread in an enclosed space , logically they should shut all the massive shopping centres first.

    1. yep your right train and tube travel provides a perfect environment for a virus to spread. if it ever reaches epidemic proportions here i’ll definitly be giving public transport a miss.

  4. Get your money on Cheltenham being cancelled. If the cases have doubled over the weekend then it’s going to be in the hundreds for sure by the weekend.

  5. Monthly Guest Tipster: March

    Explanatory Note HERE>>>
    http://racingtoprofit.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/March-2020-Monthly-Guest-Tipster-1.pdf

    March: 0/0

    Improvers

    Morning Update

    Morning all,

    There was just one last night and it’s now an even more attractive price which isn’t a concern as noted below. Nothing new to add and lat night’s post is beneath.

    5.15 Wolverhampton. Valentine Mist. each-way.
    (was 26 various. Now 41 Bet365/Unibet, 34 various)

    Early bet for Monday
    Only one meeting and only one bet at the moment.

    5.15 Wolverhampton. Valentine Mist. each-way. 26 various

    Valentine Mist has been overpriced a number of times, winning at 100/1 last summer and placing recently at 80/1, 40/1 and 16/1 and once again looks generously priced.

    In fairness, she had been consistently dreadful until that win having previously lost by 43, 12, 18 and 11 lengths in her four runs prior to that. Further defeats by 11, 13 and 11 lengths followed but since then she actually managed to put three decent efforts together and yet her prices haven’t reflected this upturn.

    She lost by another wide margin last time out but that was tackling almost an extra half a mile. Back down to the course and distance of those three placed efforts, back in handicaps and weighted fairly- her last couple of runs have seen her disadvantaged in Classified Stakes- and with a reasonable 5lb claimer riding and returning to her saddle after riding her to that victory last year and one of the placed runs, there are reasons to expect improvement.

    When placing over course and distance she was under three lengths behind tomorrow’s favourite, Traveller, but meets again on 12lbs better terms between the two and both were ahead of tomorrow’s thrid favourite, Amor Fati, and in the other run- her last over course and distance- she was half a length behind Creative Thinking who is the short favourite tomorrow in the first division of this race.

    She’s shown she capable of rubbing shoulders with the best in opposition tomorrow and at the prices looks the value call.

  6. You will find this virus was predicted by an author Dean Koontz THE EVES of DARKNESS written in 1981. Currently being shown on facebook.
    He gives the year 2020 starting in Wuhan and a global pneumonia-like illness which will vanish as quickly as it arrived only to reappear in 10 years time and then completely disappear.
    Personally I think Cheltenham will go ahead as the virus is in its infancy just now and governments are not the quickest to act on these things. Aintree could be more susceptible as its further down the line.
    Just my opinion.

    Mike

    1. Mike,

      Thanks for the update etc – do you have a number of bets / wins / P|L to hand for those?
      I lived in hope they may work as a portfolio systematically but appears that has hit the buffers after last month!
      Josh

      1. Josh

        23 wins 211 bets -1.3 loss ROI -6.3. Overall since 7th Nov

        I have checked all figures and found an error in jan which was -5.71 lose -7.82% ROI. Apologies for the confusion as 2 or 3 rogue winners from another set of figures got mixed in with the AW T/T. Only Nov made a profit of plus 32 while Feb was the worst at minus 31. Dec and jan were in a minus of 8 and 5 respectfully profit wise.

        It looks to me that there are long losing runs and you need some biggies to offset them. Nov had a 15, 18 and a 34 bfsp winners only another 2 at 12 bfsp and the rest were under 10 bfsp.

        If todays selection comes in could wipeout all the losses. Lol.

        I hope this is some help.

        Mike

        1. Josh

          Just as a matter of interest 50% of the winners were Hcp winners. The rest were approx 25% each T/J, Class and Dist.

          Mike

  7. This Corona pop bottle germ thing will just fizz out for sure and go flat 🙂
    It has just been a germ warfare test by china under the supervision of the U.S.A.
    it will end in time especially the warmer it gets ( this germ doesn’t like the heat)
    Cheltenham will go ahead ! ( open areas) I do wonder if they will close some of the more enclosed grandstands and marques though ? all football / concert grounds and enclosed public areas will be closed from next week onwards.
    but more importantly

    3.10 wether(it will be on or not) …..it is now …………………
    McGARRY e/w great young jockey .. trainer in form ….. my betfair hunch says …. YES ……. but e/w and place only 🙂

    Thanks and adios amigos
    ske

  8. ‘re last month’s guest tipster: thought the analysis was really interesting but the overall strike rate simply not good enough. A good idea to freshen up the site though and look forward to seeing how March pans out. Thanks for taking the trouble to sort these Josh.

    1. No problem.
      Each to their own in terms of what they assess as important, although of course it’s hard to take a view after 1 month –
      Ideally I don’t want lists of horses etc with no reasoning, defeats the object really as a ‘worst case’ should be some interesting analysis to just read, if nothing else. But a balance, as some good services out there that don’t provide reasoning, but then if you’re not diving in to back them, you don’t really get anything from it.

      Obviously given odds he generally plays at the win % isn’t going to be great, many a ‘big odds/value’ service, esp ‘big races’ (not Rory specifically) don’t have much better than 12-14% win SRs. His 15% ROI for the month isn’t too shabby, even if does feel solid but unspectacular – a couple of placed horses winning would have boosted that. I mean at this moment in time I wouldn’t mind being +6 for the year! gulp (his Jan was +14 or so I think)

      But, everything is shared as is, and you can make a judgement – but the primary objective of those in here isn’t to get you to sign up etc – trying to add something of interest to read. Although i’m trying to negotiate a discount link for anyone who may wish to carry on.

      Josh

    2. Give the guy a break it was only one month! You sound like some of my subscribers for tips when I spell out to them that we aim for 100 points profit in a calendar year and they moan if we have a bad week! If you do not know that Rory Delargy knows what he is talking about then…….!

      Listen to him on The Final Furlong podcast and learn a lot.

      1. Martin I don’t doubt Rory knows what he is talking about but as somebody selling their expertise to paying subscribers I do not think five wins from 41 bets cuts the mustard. If I can pick more than 5 winners from 41 bets I am not going to have much patience with a pro tipster who cannot, no matter how highly esteemed and genuine they might be.

        Still, each to their own. If you think that is an acceptable performance I hope you hang onto your subscribers 🙂

        1. So what does “cut the mustard” for you? It is easy to be negative over 1 months figures but not so easy to say what is the minimum you would accept in that time.
          Phil

  9. Not really into conspiracy theories,i do think there was a moon landing,but every 10 years or so something comes along and its probably more to do with nameless figures in some vulture fund here or there that needs a recession every decade or so to feed their greed.The big tobacco companies need to recruit new addicts to replace the ones that have died off and its the same with these shadowy figures.People who were just kids during last recession were ripe for sucking into the machinery of life time debt,mort in mortgage means death.Now some people will die in debt but will have already paid more back in the principle borrowed,and there are more than enough recruited into a lifetime of debt slavery.The men in white coats are at the door!
    Alas in the last few decades we have given too much time to the snowflake generation.Growing up in the eighties,we maybe had a bottle of dettol under the sink,now you could make a bomb with the contents,we have sanitised everything and no one has natural immunity built up.When i ate something that didn’t agree with me I went out and threw it up,that bug wouldn’t affect me again,we were always a nervous finger away fro world anhiliation but we survived.People will eventually become immune to virus’s like this one.Its bacteria resistance that is the danger coming down the track,probably long before global warming has scorched us

    1. Like my old Nan used to say ‘you have to eat a bucket of dirt in your life’. She went through two world wars In London and made it to her mid eighties.

  10. I had Rory down for 44 bets and 5 wins for a 13.63 profit to advised odds @ 1pt win and 1pt ew. Am I three bets out?

    1. Hmm, well at least we have the same wins… My results are to advised stakes and odds (Inc bog) so maybe some disparity there. Although confused as to how may he bigger given he had 2x winning 2 pointers I think. I’ll check against their results but I was updating daily. Unless you’ve missed odd losing 2 pointer and 1.5 etc. Not sure what’s happened there.

      1. I only recorded to 1pt Josh, so I guess the profit would be different in that respect. My records will automatically take the SP if it’s higher than the advised price so maybe that makes a difference. Human error may account for the extra 3 bets!!

      2. Josh just go on Racing Consultants and see what they , have recorded.
        Recorded them win only and have them at – 0.5 points
        Have recorded 44 bets same as Chris.
        Cheers
        Colin

    2. I didn’t scroll down far enough on Excel!! the profit was -0.97.
      For win only it was -1.17

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