Members Daily Post: 29/02/20 (complete)

Main tip x1, Section 1 (complete), note, Festival report, Sat trainer pointers

1. My Tips

2.Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.General messages/updates/new reports etc

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1. My Tips

Daily Chase Tips Main (2019: 24/165, 49p +16.8 ) Jumps Festival Tips (2018:+143; 2019: 6/99,27p, -45.8,)

Daily Chase Tips: Main (2020: 3/40,8p, -23.8)

3.35 Donc – FORTIFIED BAY – 1 point win- 7/1 (bet365/WH/BetfS/PP) 

that’s all for main tips today, as of 09.10, write up at bottom of post…

 

Best of The Blog? (test: 2/17, 7p; -4.7)

None today.

 

2.Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

JUMPS

Doncaster

3.35 – Chidswell (all Hc’s)

4.45 – Aeglos (micro age) 30 4/1 

 

Kelso

3.57 –

Sutton Manor (m going) 14 22/1 S2A

Bialco (m’s TJC, going and -class) 14  w2 H3 I3 11/2 

 

Newbury- Abandoned 

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Please Read: All information regarding the members club and how to engage in the content, what all the red symbols mean etc. Inc contact info, research articles and much more can be found HERE>>>

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3.Micro System Test Zone

Monthly Trainers

(2019: +17.56 BFSP; 2020, +67.7 SP, +151.32 BFSP) 

Paul Nicholls (any odds, 8/1 best) 

1.37 Kelso – Stratagem  H1 I3 G3  2/5 

2.12 Kelso – Moabit G1 4/1 

Sue Smith (any odds) 

2.25 Donc – Joke Dancer 11/1 

 

Chase Angles 2019/20 

LTO Winners 

3.35 Donc – Fortified Bay  H3 I3 15/2 

 

Chase Eye-Catchers 2019/20

2.12 Kelso – Looks Like Murt (2nd run) G1 4/1 

 

 

4.General messages/updates/new reports etc

 

I think I’ve found an ‘Monthly Trainer’ angle for Ian Williams in March and i’ve lined up an AW ‘Guest Tipster’ for next month (decent write ups), which makes sense given my/our focus on jumps in the coming weeks. 

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Cheltenham Festival 2020

I’ve completed my stats/trends/trainers report and you can read that HERE>>>

 

Saturday Big Race Trends: Trainer Pointers

2.05 Newb 

Trainers (to have won race /with runners)

  • Singlefarmpayment
  • Strong Pursuit 

 

3.15 Newb 

Trainers (to have won race /with runners)

  • Mont Des Avaloirs / Secret Investor / San Benedeto
  • Gala Ball

 

3.35 Donc 

Trainers (to have won race /with runners)

  • Worthy Farm / Saint Xavier 
  • Chidswell
  • Definitly Red

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3.35 Donc 

Fortified Bay 

This race has suffered a few withdrawals already and I an only assume Def Red will be coming out soon as this is his 2nd pref after Kelso – annoying when the market keeps changing so much so early due to NRs but it is what it is. There may well be a R4 on this one at some point. 

Anyway, I thought 7s looked a shade overpriced and for example I wasn’t sure Worthy Farms recent form is that much better – that price disparity seems a bit odd. They are the two lightly raced ones in here, over fences, with the promise of more to come. Fortified Bay would have been an interesting outsider in The Eider and the fact they entered him there suggests connections think he’s a stayer. They say the more rain the better for him and he has shaped as if he would relish 26f. He was dossing a bit LTO when hitting the front (ears pricked/gazing a bit) and I suspect there’s a fair amount left in the tank still. The front two well clear there and the 2nd was coming into it on the back of a win. Aidan Coleman won on him two starts back, in a race that’s produced a few subsequent winers (as have many of his races in fairness, even that Cartmel novice where he was outpaced/bumped into a 145 horse who came 2nd in a G2 at Warwick recently) His sire’s jumpers have a decent record on heavy and he ran at Warwick in such ground when trained by Alan King, staying on in a manner which suggested he handled conditions just fine. Candlish is going along ok, she does well with LTO winners and they also have a decent record in this race. His form also looks strong on the figures (HRB/Inform speed) and he’s in the ‘right’ place on all of those. Hopefully Coleman can just track the pace as he should have the ability to do so in these conditions. In any case, I wanted him onside at 7s in this. There should be more to come and these conditions could unlock it. He does need to step up, but then so does the fav. 

What winner would annoy me? 

Well at the prices, nothing really. Captain Chaos – well if he were 7s and Fortified Bay 4s I may have had a decision there – we/I was on him LTO at 16s where he ran a cracker and had me excited for a long way – he has had a short break since but I suspect that effort took plenty out of him. However if he blasts off here and is clearly tanking along, he may stay there. He is a bit hard to trust when it comes to putting a couple of good runs together, and those two issues made me apprehensive about wading in at 4s. But if you wanted two on side, a saver etc, he’s be next in I think- but he could have an off day. That Newcastle run in the Rehearsal was decent also and a repeat of that, or LTO, should put him bang there. He’s not unexposed thought and I just thought 4s was about right, not overpriced. But I may have that wrong. 

Fortified Bay has Ascot D B beat on that run LTO and i’m not sure why that gets reversed if both running their races, but in any case he has questions also. Aaron Lad is lightly raced but just a bit too inexperienced for me in a test like this – but he’s unexposed over fences. Still, this could be too much for him and I wasn’t sure he wanted a slog. And the same applies to Cesar Et Rosalie – I wasn’t sure if he would be up to this level but more so had doubts about him staying on this ground. He hasn’t exactly raced on heavy very often (which may be some indication) but does mean it’s more of an unknown. He may be ok but I had my doubts. However, strange things can happen when it gets this testing. 

The final two I was happy to leave/take on at prices. Worthy Farm is progressive, in form, and i’m never destined to get him right! I’m not sure the level of his form is better than anything in here but he’s fit, in form and progressive. He is 0/5 going LH in his career, but only one go chasing, but still, that’s a question. The trip is an unknown, and in a bog. So, for an 11/4 shot he does have questions, although Nicholls can’t do much wrong at the moment. 

Yaltari is interesting but given the questions I wanted bigger than 4s – he suffered a bad cut LTO which has taken a while to heal, hence the break and indeed that explains that poor run when sent off fav. He doesn’t take much racing and looking through his form, i’m not sure he wants a slog either. Obviously many of Venetia’s handle heavy/thrive in it but over 26f in heavy, it is a question. However if he is fine, he’s a danger to all. That Ascot form from last season is solid and a repeat of that would see him in the mix. He’s lightly raced for his age and connections will be hoping there’s more to come. 

Pace wise.. Captain C may try and bomb on although Bridget was more patient with him at Newcastle, so we shall see. Yaltari will be up there and Worthy Farm won’t be far away. If Aidan could get a position behind those 3, that would be fine. If he’s comfortably lobbing along through this I don’t think he will be far away at the death, and looked worth chancing at 7s. 

 

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

19 Responses

  1. 2:05 Newbury

    Strong Pursuit 8/1

    An unexposed “veteran” with only 4 chase starts, likes to front run and should get a nice time of it with no other obvious in the race. Good Newbury form.

  2. An early one that caught my eye that looked a bit of value (that word) was:

    2.12 Kelso, Moabit at 5/1 for Paul Nicholls. So 2 points win.

    A qualifier under the 1 run in 90 days rule.

    I would also lay Definitly Red, 3.22 Kelso for 2 points. But only at evens or odds on. Otherwise no bet.

    Good luck

  3. Josh and Martin
    Josh thought would put my reply to your last message here and hope Martin catches it.
    Ref the spat i may have got it wrong then Martin i appologies, however the post came directly below mine, Martins quote it seems not from some of what is written above which is fine if you are happy with what you do but i bet you are not winning money by betting on horses, took it this was directly related to me and my post.
    Send the glasses could do with a new pair, not looked at the race and not interested would have nothing to do with that pair, and certainly anyone on here do not be tempted to join Bollinbroke, you could always have him has a guest tipster should be fun!!! doubt he would accept.
    Dancing cannot wait, could be difficult to stick to water tonight but will have to wait till Sunday for a beer.
    Colin.

    1. No worries Colin, yep two sep discussion topics re ‘value’ (THE most contentious topic in the game! – although as a concept I do think it’s a key one for us all to try and grasp to some level) and record keeping etc, but he def wasn’t having a dig at you 🙂
      Haha – I do absorb plenty on what you muse Colin, esp re the dodgy folk out there and seems he may be one, tipping wise.
      Why on earth are you sticking to water?? Life is too short, get something down you! Josh

      1. Water water water
        just over a year ago hip op not the dance after 25 years of pain not knowing what it was till years later finally have my body back also in about 9 months lost around 2 stone according to friends, and i can feel the rib cage again, walked and danced 453 miles last month never felt better and slim fit may take up horse riding again, dont think i would be brave enough to get on board that ship as sailed bye, fantastic all the boozy friends now accept i drink water down town.
        Its great 3 pints on Sunday and feel tipsy and the 20 year old barmaid always as a dance with me before i leave who needs beer!!!
        Josh enjoy your weekend in Leeds.
        Colin.
        PS just had a look at the photo of Ruby and myself at the last hurdle, after walking the course at Cheltenham all 2 and half miles did i look fat, doubt if you will remember the photo i sent down, mix in high places HaHa.
        Colin.

        1. Good luck with the dancing Colin and the tipping.

          Tipping is tricky especially when keeping subscribers on board.

          Dancing…..well i am enthusiastic but my moves no longer impress the ladies…or anyone really and when i do dance at home the dogs start barking at me. As a great man once said ‘everyone is a critic’.

  4. 14:05 Newbury
    STRONG PURSUIT 1pt win 8/1 gen
    THEATRE GUIDE 1pt win 5/1 gen

    15:15 Newbury
    GALA BALL 1pt win 12/1 gen
    BENNYS KING 1pt win 13/2 gen

    15:35 Doncaster
    CAPTAIN CHAOS 1pt win 13/2 PP BFR
    CESAR ET ROSALIE 1pt win 20/1 gen

    write ups in morning.

    1. STRONG PURSUIT
      Not many miles on the clock, Dickie on board who has come back really strong after his injury, likes the going and the course, is definitely over the odds at 8`s in this. Should be up in the vanguard also.
      THEATRE GUIDE
      I know, being hypocritical here with one that is over exposed, but, CT has asked for Jonjo to leg up on the old boy and I just feel this time of year is his, if he is in the lead like last year then I believe we are in for a ding dong battle up the straight with these two..
      GALA BALL
      Did say I fancied this one yesterday, was reading Nick Mordins old book again recently and his horses for courses section is second to none, this one i believe loves the long straights and Newbury is definitely to his liking winning twice here and finishing second on a couple of occasions, with Dickie in the plate, there will be extra confidence in this one and we should see another big run, ignore the run in November is my advice, just think something was amiss that day.
      BENNYS KING
      This horse is progressive and I think this may be easier than some of the races he has run in this year, yes, he has crept up the weights, just think that Class 1 was too much for him and he returned to a class 2 race and nearly won LTO, think the ground was a little too sloppy for him and with better conditions today should go close for the Skeltons.
      CAPTAIN CHAOS
      Was unlucky to meet dour stayer Kimberlite Candy lto and this shorter trip should see him go much closer if adopting those front running tactics used at Warwick, the opposition looks no better than that race then and I know CC will love the conditions etc.
      CESAR ET ROSALIE
      I always look at jockey mounts etc and see if there is something odd every now and again.A jockey who doesn`t normally do a weight etc, will sweat it out and make sure they are fighting fit and can get on a horse and do a particular weight, today that jockey is Tom Scu, thought it was odd he by passed Newbury and has come up here and done nearly 10-1, back in the day his Dad used to do it to aplomb with Martin Pipe horses and like I said you need to watch out when they do these weights the top jocks, they ain`t sweating it out for nothing….

      As always hope all horses and jockeys come back safe and sound and good luck with whatever you select today.

  5. I like the look of Yalltari this afternoon in the 335 at Doncaster. Last years form in the Reynoldstown looks solid and hoping this has been the plan after season opener. Will love the ground. Will also have some loose change on Ebony Jewel in the 2.45 at Kelso.

  6. AW T/T

    A rare winner yesterday Aidens Reward 3/1 plus a 2nd Dream Game.

    Only the one runner today.
    6.30 S Charlie D…T Dascombe Hcp…3/1

    Mike

  7. with all my main bets either at Newbury or n/r’s all i’m left with is a few fancies.
    Kelso.
    2-12. Moabit £4 win @ 7-2
    3-22. Seeyouatmidnight £2 win @ 10-1
    3-57. Bialco £2 win @ 6-1
    Doncaster.
    1-50. Flemcara £2 ew @ 11-1, Kris Spin £1 ew @ 50-1 *(wh 4 places)
    2-25. Joke Dancer £3 win @ 8-1

  8. Monthly Guest Tipster

    Recommended:

    2:45 Kels – 1pt e/w Ubetya @ 18/1 (Ladbrokes, Coral – paying 3 places)

    Total staked 2pts

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    Kelso:

    2:12 Cyril Alexander Memorial Chase (Novices’ Limited Handicap) 2m 1f 14y

    Protek des Flos did not take to chasing for Nicky Henderson, but he has looked pretty happy over the larger obstacles since joining Ben Haslam, and was unsuited by the way the race developed when third to a pair of more prominently ridden rivals at Wetherby on his latest start. He was not persevered with to get close in the latter stages there, and seemed to be in similar form as when a five-length third to Dali Mail in a novice chase at Newcastle in December. The winner would have followed up but for falling at Ayr next time, and the runner-up did win his next start, so the form is reliable, and Protek des Flos now means Dali Mail on 8lb better terms than at Newcastle. He’s fancied to turn the tables, assuming he’s ridden a bit more forcefully than last time.

    2:45 William Hill Premier Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 2) 2m 2f 25y

    Ubetya has a bit to find with the market leaders if race ratings are to be believed, but the Uttoxeter winner travelled supremely well before idling on the run in, and was value for much more than the bare margin. Kelly Morgan trains the son of Le Fou for Johnny Weatherby, and he looks an exciting prospect, at least on heavy ground. It’s not easy to put an accurate figure on what he achieved at Uttoxeter, but I would wager that the handicapper’s assessment is on the lenient side. Of course, he’s thrown into pattern company here, and needs to improve again to win, but I don’t think he has as much to find as the figures would suggest, and he will appreciate a strongly run race in the conditions having tanked through the race last time.

    Regards,

    Rory

  9. Ah frustrating again there from me with the danger horse. Annoying. A perfect 3/3 this week of those I think, 25 points left in the dangers pile, alas. Painful. He’s made 4s, 9/2 look monstrous there so I’ve got that value judgement wrong. He did have the best recent chase form by miles and was entitled to do that if repeating it, which was the question.
    Fortified Bay has ran as if he’s got an issue, give how he jumped violently to his left, suspect a physical issue not that it mattered. Only one horse handled those conditions today. It will click bur I’ve got to tweak something to start putting those horses up. Or some of them. Whne you’re flying those are the types you don’t over think. I mean nothing in that had done what he had Inc at Newc and LTO. Ah. This game. I’ll try and keep taking the positives.

    1. Well you said yourself to have a saver on CC and you only had a couple of ‘if’s’ against him and you said your pick needed to step up. Sorry to say but that says back them both.

      1. Indeed – well the only doubt was whether he’d back up/run his race again really – and i’ve made wrong value call at what was 4s when I was looking. Obviously I need to be tipping more of the danger horses, something in thought process/approach needs tweaking to get me to that point. But that’s the point in the write ups at least and maybe some had a saver, as I did, but that’s irrelevant as only one figure I judge my efforts on and that was a -1 for that race, again. But in terms of being ‘out of form’, its the best sort of being ‘out of form’ you can be (as I hunt around for positives as negs not good for the head), in sense that I’m close/reading races/dangers fine – but that final bit I’m obv finding challenging at the moment which is most frustrating.

  10. North American racing.

    4/58 -28.5 A welcome 7/1 winner on Friday.

    Saturday

    Philly Park race 7, 8.37 UK, Tomater Gator 14/1.

    Gulfstream race 11, 9.30 UK, Musical heart 50/1.

    Penn race 5, 00.49 UK, Ten Hut 10/1.

    Best prices on Oddschecker now.

    Good luck.

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