Members Daily Post: 28/02/20 (complete:9.12)

write ups – Tip x1 + best of blog x1, Section 2 (complete), test zone, musings…

1. My Tips

2.Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.General messages/updates/new reports etc

*

1. My Tips

Daily Chase Tips Main (2019: 24/165, 49p +16.8 ) Jumps Festival Tips (2018:+143; 2019: 6/99,27p, -45.8,)

Daily Chase Tips: Main (2020: 3/40,8p, -23.8)

2.00 Donc – MINELLA EXAMINER – 1 point win – 5/2 (gen) 3rd, well stuffed, 9/4, got that wrong-  he’s gone well for a long way and I thought he may just keep pulling away, but got stuck in the ground I think or just beaten by better horses, and was weak before the off, relative to price he had been backed into – pleasing and frustrating at same time given another main danger/horse in bold highlighted in write up winning, 7s>9/2 and one day i’ll start putting them up! Ah. I’ll go through those soon and see how they’ve been doing. The winner has relished conditions which was a q, but unknown, and has done well as was ridden patiently early and made odd error, but has ground that out. Worth remembering for future slogs in such ground. 

 

 

Best of The Blog? (test: 2/17, 7p; -4.7)

3.05 Donc – TWOTWOTHREE – 1 point win – 15/2 (bet365/WH/BV) 7/1 (the rest) NR, I assume on account of the ground, which is 1 point saved as he doesn’t want it that testing.

that’s all for the ‘best of blog’ test today, as of 08.48, write ups at bottom of post…

 

2.Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

JUMPS

Doncaster

3.05 – Imada (HcCh) w1 H1 I1 G3 9/2 S4 UP

 

Newbury

4.55 – Lillington (HcCh,micro class/dist) G3 12/1 S1

 

*

Please Read: All information regarding the members club and how to engage in the content, what all the red symbols mean etc. Inc contact info, research articles and much more can be found HERE>>>

*

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

Monthly Trainers

(2019: +17.56 BFSP; 2020, +68.7 SP, +152.32 BFSP) 

Paul Nicholls (any odds, 8/1< best) 

3.50 Newb – Eritage H3 G1 2/1 

 

Chase Angles 2019/20 

Trainers

4.55 Newb – Lillington (14/1<)  G3 12/1 

4.55 Newb – Dorking Cock (13/2<) H3 I1 7/2 

Long Lay Off Trainers

3.05 Donc – Grand Turina 6/1 2nd 

 

Chase Eye-Catchers 2019/20

3.05 Donc – TwoTwoThree (2nd run) H3 G3 I3 13/2 

 

4.General messages/updates/new reports etc

 

‘Thursday Trends’ – some pointers for Sat will follow, likely on Friday morning – i’m deep in Festival research mode and have x2 handicaps to go for the stats/trends report, that I want to complete this evening, and post on Friday. 

*

The ‘monthly trainers’ have been keeping the show on the road somewhat this year to date and Nicholls has now had 4 winners in a row for that angle- I doubt I will better than in the months ahead but it won’t be for the want of trying. I’m yet to research any for March but will be doing that before close of play Friday also. Hopefully some of you have backed some of them to lift the mood and the betting banks. 

I won’t get over excited about tipping two winners in a row (one test, one main), esp at 7/2 and 4s, but good for the confidence if nothing else and it would be a good time to hit some form at long last! We shall see what the next week or so brings and plenty of recent losses to chip away at.

I had a chat with racing pal, and friend of blog, Adam Norman (pro punter/now RTV contributor etc) after the weekend, when deep in the gloom, and he said three things to me which have stuck in my head, that i’m sure he won’t mind me sharing, but may give you something to ponder, as I did…

1 – Look for Opposable favourites, first and foremost – I suppose that sounds straight forward/obvious, but I’ll be honest, that isn’t something I’ve ever consciously done too much of – but it certainly helps focus my mind and allows you to shape a race – I mean if you’re happy to oppose the fav at price X, it does open it up somewhat – especially these smaller mid-week NH fields. It’s not a bad starting point, and can obviously lead to conclusions about whether to play in the race or not, or how to. 

2- Price – Adam’s average price of his chase winners is 9/2. I know many of us have talked on here plenty about price in the comments etc but hearing a track-side pro say that, helped focus the mind – again, even more so on small field /weekday NH racing. It’s no coincidence that the last two winners have been 7/2 and 4s after that chat. I may have left both those races alone before, but I took a view on the favs in both at the odds, and went from there. The 5/2-6/1 range is vital for him, to keep ticking over and to keep his sanity. Obviously he’s betting for a living which comes with its own pressures but there’s clearly something to be said for not always shooting for the stars, price wise. 

3- Patience – just wait for the right opportunities and pounce – don’t go forcing it. Again that’s one of those points we all know to be wise/correct deep down, but I can go chasing action – especially with my main tipping focus on 3m+ races as that can lead to some quiet spells. 

Anyway, I thought i’d share those musings, as always with the intention of providing something interesting to read, possibly useful, and for those of you who like picking out your own bets also, some food for thought. 

Josh 

*

Write ups…

2pm Donny 

Minella Examiner – 

My starting point was whether I wished to take M E on and concluded I didn’t, and that this was a bunch with so many questions, I thought 5/2 looked big – with my new found consideration of those near the top of the market (I won’t ever go shorter than this – but to my eyes he’s value and his SP may be a bit shorter).

I made the mistake of taking him on LTO which didn’t go well but he ticks every box really – he’s unexposed, improving, in devastating form, has CD form, races prom/will try to lead, stays well, won’t mind if the rain comes, and still looks well handicapped. He somewhat hosed up LTO, Danny easing off/gently coaxing in the last 1/2 F and that winning margin could have been greater. The right horse chased him home there, an unexposed one from the NTD yard, but they were well stuffed really. His RPR there was 117 and in effect he comes into this on a hat-trick as he’d have dotted up at Wetherby I think but for coming down. He jumped superbly here LTO and he’s the one to beat. While that was a 0-105 and this is a 0-120, I don’t think it’s much better given the questions many others have, and it’s a ‘drop’ in level in the sense that he goes into a Novice handicap chase, whereas he was against more proven chasers LTO. Plenty in here have yet to win a chase of any sort.

If he doesn’t fall/make an error I think he wins, and I concluded that 5/2 was overpriced, given my assessment of him/the oppo.

I could have one of them wrong but no other horse winning this will annoy me as such… The Hobbs horse could run well but I think the selection has achieved more/better form, and he has course experience, and will have track position on him. The yard are going well though and he’s unexposed yet with chase experience, so a danger.

As is Midnight Moss... I hope I haven’t picked the wrong Greenhall horse today (gone with one in the ‘best of blog’) and i’d put this one as the most interesting/potentially biggest danger (and maybe a tad annoying!) – I didn’t want to wade in at 7s but he is unexposed and ran well LTO at Hunt. He was chasing home a 105 horse there, was patiently ridden, the odd scruffy jump – I also thought the selection was more proven in conditions if this goes soft (certainly the combination of soft/distance) and he has that to prove. Maybe Paddy will be more aggressive but his form does have a solid feel to it (esp hurdles/novice/NHF form – he was 5L behind Champ in his bumper – maybe these conditions will bring out more).  He does have chases in him but hopefully not today, and his more experienced chase rival will have too much.

The rest have even more questions to my eyes and I was happy to leave them. It is a Novice handicap chase so nothing ever surprises totally but none were for me.

*

3.05 – Twotwothree

This unexposed chaser caught the eye at Warwick, travelling well for a long way before being weighed down in horrendous ground. I thought he moved like a well handicapped horse still and has more chases in him – just a case of when.

He bolted up twice in races that have produced a few winners, before then running at Warwick. He then ran here in a C2 up against 130/140 horses and didn’t do too badly – a couple of errors but he moved into it turning for home. I don’t think he had the pace/ability to keep up there. He will find these waters calmer and has shaped as if worth a step up in trip. So he’s doing a couple of things differently there. Henry Brooke knows him and rode him more forward at Bangor, and with any luck he will track the pace here, and not be near the back. But he generally travels well through his races.

He has fewer questions than many in here and looked worth a go at 7s or so. He will win more chases.

Of the rest…

Hmm… well Pichelot is being backed which is interesting – lightly raced in the UK, first start after a wind op- and McCain does well with those- he’s hard to weigh up but on his French RPRs he could make 122 look lenient when it all clicks/he settles in. Maybe that’s today but his French form may indicate he wants further, i’m not sure. Still, he could be the main danger.

The rest I could leave happily – Native Robin is the solid ‘been there and done it’ horse in conditions and is looking well handicapped again – although he is 10 and will be slowing down I think – he’s open to attack from younger/more progressive legs but he may just need to run his race/repeat a performance from earlier in the season. He wasn’t great LTO mind.

The likes of Imada, Ramonex and Grand Turina had enough questions for me at their prices also.

So, the Greenhall horse will do. Hopefully his 2pm runner goes well, but not too well, and this one can get the win.

*

 

 

Share on facebook
Facebook
Share on twitter
Twitter
Share on pinterest
Pinterest
Share on linkedin
LinkedIn
Share on telegram
Telegram

Post Comments

Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

52 Responses

  1. Err, re price Josh, I think you’ll find a lot of us already said the same thing about shooting for big price winners, although we’re not pros obvs so why listen to us? 🙂 Well done today.

    1. Ha, well I did reference our various chats in comments but when you’ve found the number of biggies I have in last 5 years (admittedly nearly all of big big field races – and that’s key) it is hard dragging yourself out of that stargazing , and not re adjusting to daily grind reality / and it is still hard at that end! – but yea, like it or not, when you hear someone you know who bets for a living say that, esp re chases, it does have some weight and cause pause for thought! 🙂 Evidently more so than I had been. There’s no right or wrong, but it’s about balance, and ultimately value judgement, and i’ve long needed to improve in the 5/2>6/1 range. You can’t rely on 40/1, 33/1 Irish/Scottish National doubles every year, nor 50/1 Albert Bartlett pokes now can you 🙂 – the barren spells in between are just too much, while at same time I have just been naff generally for a while!
      Onwards.

      1. Of course,.Not dissing your amazing record in those races. But as you say, for day to day run of the mill
        stuff the front end of the market is surely where to focus.

        1. Why? Winners come in all shapes and sizes and prices. The secret is to find horses that are over valued in price. To do this you have to be able to set a price for a horse, so create your own tissue in part. As an example, you have Altior at 5/2 and the bookies/exchanges have him at 4/1. That is value for you and so you should be then backing Altior at 4/1. That is how you make money backing horses in the long term.
          You can focus at whatever end of the market, not just the front, or the middle or the back. You just need to be able to set minimum value odds for your selection.
          Josh knows how to do this as I have seen him do this in the past.

          1. I know this has been discussed/argued ad infinitum but its all very well finding a horse that’s overvalued but if they don’t win, there is no value. I guess what I’m saying is that Josh has looked for value in higher priced horses but not enough of them have won (recently at least), so no value at all.

          2. Exactly my point Ken. Martin, Ken has explained it much better than me. That is “why”.

          3. Sorry Ken, I have to disagree. On an individual basis, of course, you are quite right but betting is a long term thing & in the long term, if your pricing is right, then Martin is totally correct and it doesn’t matter if it’s 2/1 and you think it should be odds on or if it’s 10/1 and you think it should be 6/1 – over the long term you will beat the Bookies as we all strive to do!

          4. Sorry Ken I am going to totally disagree with you. That’s very short term thinking and this game is all about the long term. I agree that picking horses that have no chance of winning is wrong however if you spend the next five years getting value you will come out on top but the hard part is looking past the losing runs.

          5. on that basis every 100/1 priced must be a “value” horse and must be backed on that theory ……………. errrr … which way to the poor house ?…….. the market knows best ….. watch .. find an early mover and then you can grab the value

            it’s an unanswerable question ………. if you fancy a horse .. take the price … and then you are in control .. especially if you can lay off in running etc

            s.e.

    1. Obviously if they lose you lose!!! You will only win if you pick enough winners to make a profit. It is irrelevant if you are picking at the top, middle or bottom of the market, you will not win if you pick losers. The secret to winning is not to always pick at the top end of the market. If it was then smarter people than all of us would have worked that out many years ago!!!
      What I said was correct but it is up to you guys what you do.

  2. Have to agree with Martin.If backing at the head of the market we would have been basking in the bahamas years ago while the bookies would be queueing at the food banks.It’s possible to win on shortish prices but it takes a lot of time.For the majority of people with work family and needing some down time it can usually be a pleasant distraction from the daily mundane.I don’t know what is the average burnout span for a pro punter.As a hobbyist you can compartmentalise the highs and lows of betting within your budget of mortgages keeping the fridge full and having some sort of life,but when all these bills are wholly dependant on a single source of income the pressure must be immense.The farm cat is only interested in what comes out of the tin each morning,not on my mental state.
    Yesterday Gay Kelleway had 2 runners 5/1 and 9/1,i picked the loser.Last week Michael Wigham had 2 runners at Newcastle 33/1 into 10/1 and a 6/1.I picked the winner.
    My graph is usually like in those medical dramas where the patient is on life support,just the meagre sign of life and the occasional high before dipping back to the hollow beep…beep,but it is these occasional highs,the 25/1,16/1,12/1 shots that make up your profit come year end

    1. love that quote about medical drama graph…mine is like that also, but, as with everything it is all about the profit and relevance to it. If you back loads of favourites and your in profit great, likewise if you back some long shots and your in profit great. The blog is called racing to profit and isn`t that what we are trying to achieve? Shouldn`t matter which way you are doing that!

  3. There was a very interesting topic on the radio about gut instinct.The “expert” found in a survey that the best decisions are made by people who follow their inner instinct,even when confronted with rafts of data to the contrary.I think Normas point about patience is very true.With an uncluttered mind the good bets jump of the page,they come to you rather than looking for them

  4. I have to mention Gala Ball in tomorrows Greatwood chase, his best form has been round here and at this distance, trainer is in form and has said that GB needs soft ground to run, he finished second in this last year, runs up with the pace and has Dickie back on board, who has a cracking record on him. I know I`m going against San Benedeto and I think they may fight out the finish again, but, think the experience of Dickie will be the telling factor in this.. currently 12/1 for tomorrow if you can get it. Looks as though this has been the target for some while. Unfortunately my confidence in Bryony is waning, think she was on the crest of a wave last year and she still is a good jock, but, needs some guidance on how to come fro behind on a horse, really good at dictating a pace, but, when she is tracking she finds it hard. Like I said though, still a top jockey and she may again surprise on Frodon at Cheltenham. (can`t believe you can get 13/2 for the Ryanair….).

  5. Hi Josh, i wonder if you looked at Seemingly So in Donc 2.00? You produced some great stats on Ollie Murphy a few weeks ago, in particular his handicap chase debut (inc novice hcps) 5/13, 7pl, +23, ae1.64 and chase runs 0, 10/24, 13pl +30 ae 1.49. I believe Seemingly So fits those criteria, plus trainer and jockey going along great guns at the moment. Although price is drifting as i write, i can’t help a small wager if those stats are right

    1. Hi James,

      I never tip a horse without going through every runner in detail!! 🙂 Or try to at least…

      Yep I did in a Micro Monday post a few weeks back… http://racingtoprofit.co.uk/2020/01/20/micro-monday-20-01-20/

      11/1< seems to be the place to focus and he has drifted from 8s - that price this morning was too short for me given number of unknowns - but he did finish 2nd in a point, and maybe he's just been crying out for a fence- if he's nibbled back in he may well be of some interest, and given those stats etc I can see why you'd have a go just on strength of those. The yard are flying but he does need more, not impossible though. Maybe i'll soon be reminded why I don't play in novice handicaps too often! Although at least mine has halved in price so the value eyes are working, now he just needs to follow the script. If he capsized, Murphy's could well be one of those in the mix if jumping well etc, and indeed if staying in soft (if the expected rain comes) Enough for me to be anti him with my subjective eyes at 8s, but Murphy's stats are compelling. Josh

  6. Value or Value have never come to terms with this and in my view too much is made of this.
    Never back odds on, but N/Rs can change your original bet, after it as been placed.
    You have your alleged value afraid you have not a clue what the trainer has planned especialy in class 3 to class 7 races, for it could be a trial run for the next race which he or she wishes to attempt to win, when trainers at the lower end of the scale are struggling to make a living then they have to be shrewd.
    Class 2 and above the better quality animal and higher prize money trainers will tend to go for the money and if good enough black type, so taking an alleged value price you should get a honest and decent run and if the animal is good enough to win, and you will be telling everyone how you achieved value.
    Over the past 12 months or more my method of selecting bets from my old methods using them as starting points have been so far very successful.
    Please everyone who scream value can you put your profit/loss returns up on Sunday 1st of March for there as been a lack of results up here for 6 months or more, only Josh and myself appear to do this and it is hard when it is minus, so with all this value someone out there must be winning!!! and for any new member they must think they have joined a goldmine, results give any member an insight if to back alongside anyone, and for myself do not want to see anyone following my bets losing, that is why i have always been open about my results which have been proven on RTP and Sportsworld, with Sportsworld i now record adviced price, Bog and BFSP before anyone dives in they pay an independant company to record the prices it is not me.
    Colin.
    Snowing quite heavily and the sky looks full of it, will have a look at Doncaster for it is only 30 mins away.

    1. Hmm, I mean without ‘getting value’ i’m not sure how you win long term – maybe more luck than judgement, but the point remains that you must surely need to be assessing whether a horse is a bigger price than you think it should be? (subjective) If we’re not beating SP over the very very long term, we just won’t come out in front?? (we may do over a 2/3 year period, 10/15 down the line may well have given it all back!)

      The simplest way I think of it is… if every horse I back forever more is 3/1, and it’s starting price is 3/1 – well my bank will never move. I won’t lose, but I won’t win. For every winner I back, I will back 3 losers and give it all back – that’s just the maths. If however every horse with an SP of 3/1 I back at 5/1, well I can only ever make money (long long term) Now that is a very basic starting point and the debate is more nuanced than that bu you get the idea. (starting price as guide not perfect, but best we have I think)

      Now that could mean you don’t back odds on and focus say in a 5/2-6/1 range, fine – but when backing a 6s shot, you have to be pondering whether you think it should maybe be 4s, or 3s ?, and come the off you will know whether your value judgement was correct or not. Of course some will drift and win,
      If you don’t have a grasp of value long long term, you won’t win. It’s as simple as that in my head. It’s easier said than done of course but any of us assessing a race from cold, should be asking whether we think the horse we like is a bigger price than we think it should be, assessing the factors we like to assess (subjective) , building in the cons, pros etc (some of which you touch on) into said price.

      Systems etc different, and we have the likes of A/E to assess long term value on any historical research but whether that gets repeated is another matter.

      The fact is, if you (or your system) is winning long term, then you are correctly assessing value, whether intentionally or not!

      I suspect Colin your various strategies have a build in value edge, well they must do if they’re winning long term – and add in your own judgement, makes that edge bigger, hence the success. But you will only be winning long term due to backing horses at a bigger price than they should be based on market assessment come the off

      Josh

      1. Guess i just do it natually and long term experience and yes most of my bets range from 2/1 to 10/1 with the odd biggie comes along which is always a bonus.
        Chris Albin’s table is very interesting especially the most profitable area is what i have always covered.
        Josh systems to me are where you back them whatever they select, mine are methods which are the starting points and then go over them with again Clive Holts principals going, class, will it get the extra furlong or 1/2 mile, draw again important no good an high draw at Chester although odd one do win but rare.
        Yesterday or the day before on Elite was a potential bet morning price of 13/8 for there was too many negatives so was not put up as a bet and it lost, so guess value to me is automatic.
        Said to you the other week if you want to go for 33/1 bets then put 1/2 point win and 2/1 to 14/1 put them as 1point win or have you have done the odd 2 point win.
        Dont stop picking the biggies for you enjoy the challenge just reduce the stake.
        Colin.

      2. I just think some people just dont get it. It seems not from some of what is written above. Which is fine if you are happy with what you so but I bet you are not winning money by betting on horses.
        To answer the question above – not all horses that are 100/1 are value. But if you are able to work out your own tissue for the race and you have the horse at 20/1 and it is 100/1 then it would be value. The hard part, like I said above, is having the ability to create your own tissue. Until then good luck.

        By the way, the weather is hot and sunny here in Cape Verde now!! Beer is OK if a bit weak. The all inclusive thing is hard work trying to consume all that is free whilst still being able to function.

        Betfair works OK on the laptop and you can get other bookies on your phone.

        I have only backed two of Nicholls today, Eritage at 15/8 and Whisky Lullaby at 7/2.
        Not long now to the festival unless the Coronavirus closes it down???? I am on Solo at 18/1 each way, which looks good now.

        All the best.

        1. Martin
          what a load of tosh all my sevices are recorded and proven by independant services also on RTP, when was the last time you put up any results ref profit and loss, you talk the talk lets see results.
          American racing why have you stopped putting up the 0/27 etc since the claim of a winner which proved not to be, trust it is not winning.
          Anyway you given me a good laugh today thank you.
          Please start putting up your results on a regular basis and if the prices are true will see if you are winning!!!
          Enjoy the rest of your holiday.
          Colin.

          1. Martin, if you’re saying the only way to make money or find value is to create a tissue then many will disagree with you. It clearly works for those that use one and clearly works for those that don’t.

          2. Colin, not for the first time and likely not for the last, I do not know what you are talking about. Muddled to say the least.
            I do not doubt your tipping prowess in some spheres at all. perhaps though you could put up the results of all the different types you have rather than htose that are just making a profit?
            I tip on other sites that have subscribers and so I cannot share those tips here for free. I tip on horse racing and golf. I do tip some free stuff here from time to time and so look out for these when thy appear.
            I am still putting up the American racing stuff, so you must be not noticing them??? They are in test mode and so may or may not come right. We shall see?

            Anyway a difference of opinions is there in all walks of life and so I shall say no more, apart from it getting boring now.

          3. Martin
            have put up all my results over the passed year win or lose and most have won and if you care to trawl back you will see this, the latest old method is Favoured which i have put up its loses prior to stopping it to do a review when i have time, for said before do not want anyone losing money on my bets.
            My results will be up on Sunday and of the three on here there will be two with minus against them unless they turn around tomorrow, see how many more put results up.
            Where are you putting up your racing and golf bets?
            For golf i do not have time much rather spend it trying to find new racing methods.
            Colin.

  7. Just to throw some numbers in the mix regarding S/Ps, make of it what you will.
    These figures are for 2019 to date, hcp’s, SP between evens and 33’s and 4 to 20 runners. The ranges for 15/2 and above are created where there is a bigger jump in S/R.
    So evens to 3/1 is 12.8% of total runners bringing in 32.8% of total profit
    100/30 to 15/2 is 32.7% of total runners bringing in 42.5% of total profit
    8/1 to 18/1 is 36.4% of total runners bringing in 20.9% of total profit
    20/1 to 33/1 is 18% of total runners bringing in 3.7% of total profit
    I’m pretty sure I know where I want to be looking for winners, I don’t know about anyone else!

    1. Very interesting.

      I mean I can see why Adam focuses in the 5/2-6s range generally!

      I will still be dabbling on the odd 20s+ poke though, obviously in the expectation they should be much shorter! But yes, clearly long long term, you don’t want to be shooting for the stars that often. Hopefully my new found enthusiasm for assessing favs/top (either pos or neg) will help with that.

      What Gerry says above has plenty of merit mind – in sense the 8s-18s shots etc are the ones that drastically add to profits come year end say I think (but I say that having not been great at that shorter end!) – but generally clearly 15/2< SP is where we want them to be, having hopefully backed many of them at bigger prices, either outside that range, or in it and shortening. The mental element is key also, and I can see why pros etc don't just chase the biggies - long long long losing runs can be demoralising and that state of mind may make you even less likely to be successful. Always plenty to ponder in this great game. Josh

      1. Haha You sound like a man who has found his long lost mojo !!

        When I look at my own betting and the price ranges most 53% of my bets and 83% of the wins are up to 8.0 BF (3.0 to 8.0). I’m scratching my head as to why the range 8.0 to 12.0 produces 17% of bets and 4% of wins and heavy losses, from there up to 20.0 doesn’t do much at all just about breaking even. From 20.0 to 34.0 brings in some nice profit though. So the area where many would consider where the value is perhaps the best is perhaps the worst place to look. It definitely has similarities to the over bets/wins ratios but the logic to it is head scratchingly unfathomable to me at this time.
        So the front end of the market contains those with the best chance the middle is where most of the others go and the back is where the ones go that make the market more palatable to the punter but actually have the same chance as the ones in the middle. Something like that anyway or nothing like that anyway!!

  8. MONTHLY GUEST TIPS (Feb: 4/37,10p = +4.9)

    Recommended:

    2:45 Newb – 1pt win Highway To Success @ 5/1 (general)
    4:20 Newb – 1pt win Mister Murchan @ 9/2 (general)
    4:55 Newb – 1.5pts win Billingsley @ 10/3 (general)

    Total staked 3.5pts

    ———————————

    Highway To Success (2:45 Newbury) is a value shout to overturn the hot favourite Monte Cristo in the juvenile hurdle at the Berkshire venue on Friday. Having a “P” next to his name on the racecard will put many people off, but he was pulled up on his latest start because his saddle slipped at an early stage, and that run should be ignored. His previous form is fairly useful, notably when finishing second in a handicap at Fakenham in December, and while he has a bit to find with Monte Cristo, it must be said that Nicky Henderson’s French import was a big disappointment on his British debut.

    That came in the Grade 2 Finesse Junior Hurdle at Cheltenham on Trials Day, and the fact that it was a pattern contest looks forgivable. I’m not so sure, however, as the form of the race looked very ordinary for the grade, and Monte Cristo was backed as if fully expected to win. To have faded as tamely as he did is not typical of his trainer, and I made the point at the time that his best run for Henderson could easily be the first time he ran for the Seven Barrows handler, in line with other French imports who have taken the same route. To see him dropped in class is not a positive, and while he may well win by default, I think he has a vulnerable look about him.

    Mister Murchan (4:20 Newbury – Nap) is a reliable sort given a test of stamina, and he wasn’t ideally suited by the way the race was run at Huntingdon last time, albeit coming out easily best of the rest behind a gambled-on handicap debutant from the Jonjo O’Neill yard. He strikes me as having the ideal racing style for Newbury, where the big, galloping track and long straight will play to his strengths. He’s gone up 3lb for being beaten last time, but that looks justified given how well the field was stretched out, and he’s only had four starts at around this three-mile trip, so remains relatively unexposed a stayer. Jockey James Davies rode very well to snatch a handicap victory at Wincanton yesterday, and there will be nothing wrong with his confidence after that.

    The handicapper has not been unkind to Billingsley (4:55 Newbury) after the Alastair Ralph-trained gelding won chases at Hereford and Haydock on his last two starts, and the hat-trick beckons in the Oakley Coachbuilders Handicap Chase. He’s been raised 12lb in total for his chase victories, but seems to have improved markedly of late, and proved very game in fending off Muratello at Haydock last time. The runner-up flopped next time, but I’d not take that form at face value, and the Haydock effort was backed up when third-placed Clan Legend ran well on his next start at Wetherby. Billingsley won in a very good time at Hereford, and his tendency to jump slightly to the right is not really an issue at Newbury.

    Regards,

    Rory

  9. Josh, just noticed your bet in the 2.00 Doncaster Minnella Examiner 5/2 bloody hell whats happening have you bumped your head Ha Ha, now down to 5/4 could this be value? or not.
    Had the misfortune to subscribe to Lee Bollingbroke thankfuly only recorded his bets but Warren Greatrex had horses with him and on many occassions he put up a Greatrex FAV and most got beat, now do not know if Bollingbroke has put this one on his line will be interesting to see the result!
    Greatrex is a trainer i cannot back unless his runner is in a class 2 or higher class for he has had some decent quality horses.
    Colin.

    1. Well I thought he should be much shorter – the question of whether he’s value or not is a mathematical one , once you know the SP etc (it’s a subjective judgement before that) – if he goes off 5/4 then he has halved in price – and if every 5/4 shot I backed at 5/2, I can only win money long term – whether 5/4 SP is value when you’ve backed them at 5/2 is not a question or a subjective matter of opinion – 5/2 about 5/4 is value. End. of. Whether he falls, tails off, PU, irrelevant now.

      Some money for Midnight Moss who I thought could be main danger, hope I haven’t got him wrong but we shall see, may be chasing mine home and hopefully not passing him!

      Josh

    2. Well that was a surprising result, guess who owned the horse, broke is in the surname and you will be if you subscribe to his service.
      Bookies happy again!!!
      Colin.

      1. Well it wasn’t that surprising if you read my write up, maybe some had a saver 🙂 – and the horse wasn’t stopped, he just wasn’t good enough and didn’t handle whatever that ground is as well as the other two. I doubt the bookies were not happy LTO when he drifted from 5/2 to 15/2 and hacked up 🙂 My judgement of value off there as the SP pretty much the same 🙂 Winner backed from 7s to 9/2.

        1. Josh
          you see the good in all trainers and racing and nothing is dodgy in racing, where there is money there is corruption cricket, snooker, football etc but racing does not have any problems.
          Your claim the horse was not stopped i hope you are right but you have no access to the stables you do not know if it missed out on the gallops and was slightly unfit or if had not the correct feed or too much water before the race, nor do i have access to the stables, and before the race said what i had noticed when i was a member of Bollinbroke racing so the result was not a surprise and when it drifted from 5/2 to 15/2 do you believe Bollinbroke members would have been adviced to back it doubt it very much.
          Bookies would have been happy for Bollinbroke would say on his email which bookies would accept your bet! draw what you want from this for i really do not care, obviously i have not a clue of what goes on in racing and make everthing up, and after Martins outrageous message i am totally disgusted and truly wonder why i bother, getting up at 5.45 Mon/Tues to try and put bets on for your members and arriving home about 5pm i know wish to help members beat the lovely bookies if i can and my bets are proven please ask Martin to prove his with true prices and will see whos winning.
          Thank goodness down town tonight, maybe arrive home 4am up again for 7am to get the papers and sort out bets for 10/10.30 is it worth it!
          Colin.

          1. I am lost as to where this spat with Martin has come from – he was engaging in a discussion about value and his views on it and tissue prices etc – all perfectly valid views, which can be engaged with or disputed.
            He wasn’t engaging with you about results or how your own offerings or indeed how you record results, so i’m not sure where that discussion has come from. He’s entitled to his view on ‘value’ as much as you are etc.
            I’m not sure what element of his musings is outrageous etc? I’m lost as to this particular discussion point.

            The issue about recording results etc is up to individuals- I always like reasoning etc as that is where the value /education is – you run your own service and sell the elements that work – which is fine, but obviously that means you’re will be more on top of results keeping.
            Martin has kept track of US just fine.

            If anyone is posting regularly, or views themselves as a ‘tipster’ then i’d encourage them to keep results, as if members want to follow that obviously helps. But each to their own, this is generally a home for hobbyists who like to muse, and there are no barriers to that etc.

            Enjoy the dancing! 🙂

            Josh

            p.s when it comes to trainers etc I maybe have been too naive in the past but you are far too skeptical the other way. Times have changed, esp with cameras TV etc – I will back my race reading judgment and analysis of that race at Donny to know that run was more than understandable given how conditions deteriorated (which I underestimated in error) and how it played out. I got him wrong and he just wasn’t good enough. If you watch that race and think he was stopped, i’d best post you my glasses, and find myself a new pair!! 🙂

  10. Out of interest Josh do you back your selections on the exchanges? I don’t know if it’s just a perception but your tips seem to reduce in price relatively quickly. I think you keep track of taken price and sp. If so would you be profitable simply backing and laying?

    1. Hi Leif,

      In depends – I still have various accounts left, although a few removed BOG/concessions etc, but had no issue getting on at 5/2 this morning – with bigger Saturday races/C2s etc, or where plenty of liquidity in market, I will go on the exchanges sometimes – depends really.

      5/2 was gen available with at least 3 I think, a good 30 mins after I posted, which I keep an eye on – not many have been tumbling in price in recent weeks, certainly not within 30/45 mins of going up.

      I don’t know the answer to your final question – the results spreadsheet does track advised price, SP, BOG, BFSP , so comparison should be possible , link to that in Results Tab posts etc.
      Whether that’s a worthwhile exercise i’ve no idea- i’ve never had a ‘layers’ mindset! 🙂

      Josh

      1. Cheers Josh. The majority of tipsters talk about finding value. Do all on here that talk about value define it against the ’tissue’ price or against the sp if that makes sense?! I’ve been betting a long time (mostly football) and have read plenty on the subject. Personally I have found my best betting is on correct scores on football yet most football tipsters stay clear saying there is no value in it.

        Gearoid makes an interesting point about instinct too. Most of us admit a lot of gambling is in the head, how you deal with losing runs etc but most ‘serious’ gamblers I know dismiss instinct. Personally I think you can have paralysis by analysis particularly these days with so many stats available. Sometimes less is more and I could be wrong but Colin seems to have a ‘relatively’ simple but effective system and going back to the point about instinct sometimes you have to trust it.

        1. Hi Leif,
          every method that i have worked on over the years have always been simple and uncomplicated and doing research on methods with pen and paper along with newspapers was my hobby, certainly not betting until later in life
          Totaly amazed that have 3 so far which are still working going back 25 years and still trying to remember more for never wrote them down they are that simple with very few rules.
          Elite after tomorrow will have had 11 winning months from 14.
          Tip Top – 5 points this month one day to go, so can still end up in profit to go with 4 winning months out of 4, or it could be 4 out of 5 see tomorrow.
          On the bridle
          Feb + 2.5 points
          Jan + 37.583
          Keep it simple thats me but i am happy thats me Ha Ha
          Colin

        2. Leif –

          Oh I fully agree that you can clutter your head with all sorts, and there’s plenty to be said for trying to keep it simple, but it is a complex game. Everyone has different ways they get their ‘racing adrenaline’ fix – I like trying to solve the puzzle etc and when i’m right it’s a great feeling, and when i’m not/out of form/keep picking the wrong bloody one, not so much! 🙂 Each to their own, some like more prescriptive methods/starting points etc

          obviously actual ‘value’ is very subjective – I was always taught/read that at it’s most basic you’re trying to beat SP as consistently as possible, and thus over time you’ll come out in front- and if you don’t, you wont. I don’t do tissue prices etc – that’s a different skill-set again – i don’t think you need to to be successful – I do it to some degree as I am trying to work out who the race looks to be between, and who’s overpriced etc on my judgement , or whether price has built in any niggles I have etc.
          I’m not sure there is right or wrong – if you trust your tissue prices and have been doing it for an age/have a method that works etc, I suspect many pros judge against those, but ultimately the best guide we have long term is SP I think – obviously race to race the market gets it wrong even at SP etc, but long term.

          The variety of views/opinions on these subjects and indeed methods is what makes the game so fascinating.

  11. AW T/T

    Apologies are a bit late.

    6.45 N Dream Game…B Haslam Hcp…10/1
    7.15 N Forever Mine…B Haslam Hcp…12/1
    Aidens Reward…B Haslam Hcp…2/1
    7.45 N The Bull…B Haslam Hcp…11/4

    Mike

  12. North American racing.

    3/56 -34.5. Test mode until end March 2020.

    Note – there are some days that there are no selections.

    Gulfstream race 4 – 7.31 UK, Philosophy 7/1.

    Tampa race 5, 7.43 UK, Point Driven 6/1.

    Good luck.

  13. good days reading lads. I’ve enjoyed it.
    Remember, it’s only a hobby. The thrill of a winner, that’s why we all do it. whatever price it is.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published.