Members Daily Post: 27/02/20 (complete)

Main tip x1 + write up, Section 2 (complete), test zone

1. My Tips

2.Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.General messages/updates/new reports etc

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1. My Tips

Daily Chase Tips Main (2019: 24/165, 49p +16.8 ) Jumps Festival Tips (2018:+143; 2019: 6/99,27p, -45.8,)

Daily Chase Tips: Main (2020: 3/39,7p, -22.8)

3.25 Lud – HEAD TO THE STARS – 1 point win – 4/1 (bet365/WH) 7/2 (gen) WON 7/2>4/1  Blimey, ‘tipped’ winners like London busses, not massive odds but a boost to confidence if nothing else and pleased with how I read that, it went to plan, confirming form with Bobo M from Warwick, and Another V is just anchored a tad by capper at moment I think, but a brave effort. Venetia’s is just out of form and Cap either not good enough and/or didn’t stay. Hugh Nugent has taken over from Tom and maybe the luck I needed as he does know him better and his claim may have helped, and he moved him up in good time to track the pace. That horse is a tricky bugger when hitting the front, he waited as long as he could. I suspect that’s his winning done for us, that felt like his gold cup, but he could have something better in him over 26f in a bog, pace allowing, and if an EW price maybe. And he always seems to just do enough so you’re never sure just how much he could have in hand. 

that’s all for main tips today, as of 08.34, write up at bottom of post…

 

Best of The Blog? (test: 2/17, 7p; -4.7)

None today.

 

2.Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

JUMPS

Ludlow

3.25 – Cap St Vincent (HcCh) w1 H1 I1 G3 9/2 S4 UP

4.00 – Une De La Seniere (HcH) 30 8/1

5.00 –

On The Quiet (micro -class)

Demopolis (all Hc’s) 14,30w1 ES+ H1 I3 11/10 S3A#

 

Musselburgh

2.07 – Shanroe Street (m TJC) 7/2 2nd 

3.17 – Celtic Flames (m TJC) H1 I1 G3 13/8 S4 WON 13/8>6/4 

 

Taunton (abandoned) 

 

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3.Micro System Test Zone

Monthly Trainers 

Paul Nicholls (any odds, 8/1< best) 

2.15 Lud – Red Risk I1 G3 5/2  WON 5/2>10/3 (4.79 BFSP)

 

Chase Angles 2019/20 

2.07 Muss – Clondaw Rigger (12/1<) H3 G3 5/2  UP

3.17 Muss- Ubaltique (14/1<) H3 I3 2/1 UP

 

Jockey Angles 2019/20 

2.07 Muss- Clondaw Rigger (25/1<) H3 G3 5/2 UP

 

Chase Eye-Catchers 2019/20 

from the Tracker Tuesday Posts >>>

2.15 Lud – Truckin Away (hot form/2nd run) H3 G3 5/2 UP

3.25 Lud – Bobo Mac (2nd run) H3 I3 4/1 2nd

3.25 Lud – Head To The Stars (1st run) H3 7/2 WON 4/1 

 

4.General messages/updates/new reports etc

 

3.25 Lud –

Head To The Stars…

Profile/race conditions – he’s o/8 over fences, 0/7 in handicaps but only three of those have been on his favoured testing ground, inc a 1l 2nd two starts back and a very good run in the Classic Chase which was much better than the final 32L defeat would suggest. He’s also got some decent hurdle form to his name in good C3/C2s, going close of a couple of pounds higher. It will all click over fences at some point and I thought this looked a big opportunity for him. This trip/testing ground look ideal. No excuses today.

Hot form/hncp mark – well as context there’s nothing in here that has stand out recent hot form, especially over fences- none have been running well in races that have thrown up lots of subsequent winners etc. This one’s hurdles form was good, a couple of races where he bumped into one/front two miles clear. More recently that Bangor run was ok, front two clear and he possibly bumped into a better handicapped one. A few winners since have come out of it that were well beat that day. It is his run LTO which I found hard to ignore, obviously in a much deeper race than this. He tanked through that and was able to go the pace that Captain Chaos was setting – approaching 4 out he was bang there, the front four clear – inc Captain C, Kimberlite Candy and The Conditional – to keep tabs with those horses showed what ability he has I think, certainly in the context of this race. As they turned for home those exertions caught up with him and he blatantly didn’t stay that 29f, not at G3 pace anyway. If he travels like that today Tom can put him where he wants in this field, it shouldn’t matter. This is quite the class/tempo drop. A mark of 126 looks fine, a 1l defeat off 130 in a C2 hurdle at Haydock to his name, and he’s some 130-134 RPRs in soft/heavy, inc a 130 at Bangor two starts back. He is unexposed over fences in these conditions.

The trainer – Henry Daly is in better form than he has been – some signs in the last few days that he could have a productive time in the coming weeks, 1/5,2p in the last 14 days. He’s also 7/24, 10p with his 3 mile handicappers at Ludlow in the last 5 years, 4/16, 6p in chases. He’s had a couple of placed runners in this race before but it’s his first runner in it for a few years. Tom O’Brien knows the horse now, he’s in form and rides the track well also. Trainer/jockey are 1/2,2p over fences here, that win 8 days ago.

Pace/running style – it will be interesting what they do with him- he travelled LTO as if he could easily track Roll Again/Another Venture here. Tom may be more patient. While I never like hold up types really this CD does suit them, looking at the Geegeez pace maps in these conditions. He is the sort that I don’t think likes being in front too long and I can see him travelling all over a few in this, delivered before the last.

The opposition…

Roll Again who was fav, looked worth taking on to my eyes. He does have a howler in his locker and he stopped a bit too quickly for my liking LTO. It was a decent race but he had dictated and it could have been better. It was a quick return from that Kempton run but he departed before that race got going, so that shouldn’t have been an excuse. Clearly if he got back to the level of his form 3 starts back here he would be a danger but he has a few questions now, at what was 3s or so. Venetia is going well again though and he will try and make all.

As will Another Venture – well he may happily track Venetia’s, but he is on a career high mark and is more exposed over fences than the selection. The yard are going well though and if he repeated that Chepstow run, he’s be bang there-  and a few of these (him included though) may not run their race. He is open to attack from something that has more in hand though. The genera level of his winning form isn’t up to that much. I preferred mine at a similar price, but can see why he has his backers. The fact they use Chester and his 5lb suggests connections know he’s weighted up to his best.

Bobo Mac – well he couldn’t keep up in the Classic Chase and if mine runs his race, I wasn’t sure why he’d overturn that form. The CP go back on and he has some questions now. Roll Again put him in his place here a couple of runs back and he’s 4lb higher again, now 14lb higher than his win here, in a race that hasn’t worked out that well. But he handles conditions well if he gets back to form. That was an if, at this price.

Cap St Vincent – this is deeper than LTO and i’m still not fully convinced as to his stamina, certainly in testing – he was out on his feet over 23f at Taunton LTO and at 4s or so, with that niggle, I could leave. But he’s a LTO winner so clearly of some interest/danger and he could run his race when the rest don’t. Vaughan does do well here with his handicappers.

Station Master has questions and has always been best on decent ground and I can leave him.

So, I thought there were enough holes in the oppo, which made his price of 7/2 look value to my eyes, for the reasons stated. Fingers crossed he can notch his first chase win, and that he can blow this lot away – which isn’t impossible as a few may stopping up the straight as they’re just out of form/may not get home.

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

10 Responses

  1. ON THE BRIDLE
    7/2 winner backed into 2/1 yesterday, price proved to Sportsworld,
    February profit + 2.5 so far
    January profit + 37.583
    February proving a difficult month with all the rain, with 3 days racing left if it turns out to be a losing month then it will not be by much, but it will be a winning month!!!!!!
    Colin.

  2. COLINS BETS
    7.00 Chelmsford Kath’s Lustre 4/1

    VICTORY
    3.40 Newcastle Padleyourowncanoe 5/2
    7.00 Chelmsford Kath’s Lustre 4/1

    ON THE BRIDLE
    No bet
    Colin

  3. WHISPERS
    5.25 Meydan Assimilation 14/1 this one is from Ed Walker, very hopeful of a big run.
    8.00 Chelmsford Arlecchino’s Arc 6/1 this one is from Mark Usher.
    My view all his 3 AW wins have been here and he his 2lb lower than his last win in December.
    You guessed it it is from Lambourn and i have been watching them after i stopped putting them up on here, so will see if can make a profit.
    Colin.

    1. A shocking state of consistency!! 🙂

      Did you double them? Can’t say I did, not that it’s a wise strategy long term but both of us in some sort of form I suppose!! Another nice BFSP for a Nicholls shorty drifting, think Nicholls now +56 SP and +131 BFSP this month, and those monthly trainers have kept the show on the road somewhat.
      Onwards.

    1. cheers James, tipped winners always lift the mood! And PN rolls on, so can’t really complain. Just need to start banging in a few more but I was pleased with how I read that Ludlow race.

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