Members Daily Post: 26/02/20 (complete)

Best of Tip x1, Section 2 (complete), test zone

1. My Tips

2.Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.General messages/updates/new reports etc

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1. My Tips

Daily Chase Tips Main (2019: 24/165, 49p +16.8 ) Jumps Festival Tips (2018:+143; 2019: 6/99,27p, -45.8,)

Daily Chase Tips: Main (2020: 2/38,6p, -26.8)

(handicap chases, 2m7f+, C4+)

None on Wed, i’ve had a first look through and i’d be forcing a bet in some pretty mediocre chases – that 2.56 at MR is interesting enough but a small field and they’ve all got questions to answer, so i’ll keep a watching brief. A couple of ok 3 milers to look at on Thursday.

 

Best of The Blog? (test: 2/17, 7p; -4.7)

2.26 MR – COME ON TEDDY – 1 point win – 7/2 (gen) WON 2.8/1> 2.75/1 – blimey, a winner. Made easier by departure of fav early who was taken out although he was racing keenly, and in reality he just had to get round after that, confirming the Chepstow maiden hurdle placings with the 2nd. He ticked every box you want  really for that type as per write up and he’s hacked up. Will hopefully make up into a solid chaser for them next season. 

that’s all for the ‘best of the blog test’ today, as of 08.49, write up at bottom of post…

 

2.Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

JUMPS

Market Rasen

1.56 – Lady Master (micro class)  w1 H1 I3 13/8 3rd 

2.26 –

Come On Teddy (all Hc’s) 14 H1 I3 10/3 WON 2.8/1

Montanna (HcH) G314/1 S1 PU/Saddle slipped 

2.56 – Get On The Yager (m runs)ES+ 5/2 S3A 2nd

 

Musselburgh

2.40 –

Island Heights (m TJC and dist) w2 G3 18/1 S1 S2A 3rd 33/1 

Emirat De Catana (m dist) 28/1 UP

3.40 – Smart Lass (HcH) I3 11/2  UP

4.40 – Keep The River (HcH) 13/2 UP

 

Wincanton……..None

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TTP Chase Micros 2019/20

2.56 MR – Get On The Yager  5/2 2nd 

 

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Please Read: All information regarding the members club and how to engage in the content, what all the red symbols mean etc. Inc contact info, research articles and much more can be found HERE>>>

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3.Micro System Test Zone

Monthly Trainers 

(2019: +17.56 BFSP; 2020, +61.62 SP, +144.2 BFSP) 

Paul Nicholls (any odds, 8/1< best) 

12.25 MR – Archie Brown H3 2/1  WON 2/1>11/4 

2.48 Winc – Fidelio Vallis 1/2 WON 1/2> 5/6 

3.50 Winc – Ask For Glory H1 I1 G1 2/7  WON 2/7>1/5 

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Chase Angles 2019/20 

1.56 MR – Du Destin (10/1<) 8/1 PU

2.56 MR – Coningsby (13/2<) H3 I3 9/2 PU

3.10 Muss – Out For Justice (12/1<) H1 I1 G1 9/2  UP

3.18 Winc – Molineux H3 I3 G3 9/4 UP

 

Jockey Angles 2019/20 

3.10 Muss – Out For Justice (25/1<) H1 I1 G1 9/2 UP

 

4.General messages/updates/new reports etc

Tracker Tuesday Post HERE>>>

There’s a £3 discount code for Paul Ferguson’s Festival Guide, details HERE>>>

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Review…Absolutely Dylan ran ok to a point but ultimately another disappointing analytical effort -he jumped very well, not that Catterick is the stiffest of jumping tests, but probably did too much too soon – although I’m not sure it mattered. Cook was conscious to make his mind up ,which he probably needs.  A chance he needed it still maybe or he’s just out of form – he will drop again and will be making all in a chase at some point if/when recapturing his 2018 form. Grange Ranger tanked through that race like a very well handicapped horse (as some of his maiden hurdle form suggested, close to some 120/130+ horses, was a Q on fitness/chase inexperience but the money was correct),  he took 2/3 fences home with him and would’ve won if jumping as well as the winner ,but he should get better with experience. I doubt he’ll be 22s>10s NTO though, but one to keep an eye on in mediocre northern handicaps at the likes of Sedgefield and Hexham – maybe they will ride him handier NTO. 

It was nice to see Rory bang in a 12/1 winner and hopefully a strong finish to the month awaits for the first ‘guest tipster month’. His figures for the month now looking solid, not to put the mockers on him. 

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2.26 MR – Come On Teddy – 

Annoying a 7/2 NR now so a 20p R4… 2.8/1 

Profile – he’s lightly raced but building up experience, and he’s unexposed in handicap hurdles, making handicap hurdle debut. 

Hot Form – you’d like to think he should have wins in him from this mark given some of his form. Of course he’s yet to win and until they do there’s always a niggle but… on his NHF debut he chased home Unwin VC who’s a 130s/140s animal (thorough staying chaser in the making for Bob Buckler) and had Southfield Stone behind him who’s a 140s horse now – some hope that one day he will be better than 122. In Feb 19 back at Exeter he was a solid 3rd, 3l behind Ask Dillon who’s a 139 horse for Fergal and has solid handicapping form to his name now. His Chepstow return this season was solid, in another deep enough maiden hurdle but I suspect he needed the run. He split two subsequent winners there and had Young Offender 8L behind him. Two starts back they all bumped into one, that winner would bolt up again and got within 4L of Ramses D T in a G2 hurdle recently. LTO again he ran well, starting to look as if he could do with a step up in trip – Polish won that race and he came a decent staying on 4th in a C3 at Kempton at the weekend off 128. Fintara was just ahead of him there and he had an official rating of 128 going into it. So, I think he has enough form to suggest 122 is workable when it all clicks. 

What’s he doing differently/why should he improve? Well he may/should improve with experience and it does look as if they’ve been patient with him-  but the key could be moving into a handicap for the first time and stepping up again in trip – he runs as if worth a go over 3m and he will just keep going. He’s related to a few 3m+ horses and most of Tom’s are bought in the hope they will be chasers in time. His NHF 2nd would hint he’s a stayer. His trainer is also in the best form he’s been in all season I think…

The trainer – Tom George is 3/13,6p in the last 14 days and he targets MR – 10/33,15p, +43 all runners in previous 5 years… 6/16,8p, +58 in handicaps. He’s 3/7,4p +15 here with horses aged 6.

Running style – he tends to race prominently enough and should be in a ‘no excuses’ position for me, tracking Solstice Star. 

The dangers… is the fav worth taking on/beatable? I thought he looked short although I suppose Murphy has a line through mine with Fitzroy from that Ludlow race LTO. However he can be patiently ridden and this could be a tactical affair. With any luck Johnny may get the run on him. He is dropped in class and this is a lesser race than he has been contesting. But he shapes like a proper stayer and some niggles about this track/pace for his supporters. (that could mean they try more aggressive tactics) He’s had 75 days off although that won’t be a problem if they want him fit – his 7lb claiming jockey is only 2/57 in the last year, although 2/11 at the track in total. Still, some questions given his price but he is the obvious danger. I’d have it between the two and Fergals was of some interest also, now a NR. (although he’d been shaping like a dour stayer also) 

Montana may be of some interest but I suspect may need it and they could be lining him up for a summer campaign on decent ground – his best form is on good but he will appreciate what seems to be drying (but poss tacky) ground and the TT returns, absent LTO. A big run wouldn’t surprise but more questions than the principles in conditions. Not that i’d begrudge S1 a big priced winner. 

I thought 7/2 could be a shade overpriced for the selection but we will find out soon enough. 

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

6 Responses

  1. COLINS BETS
    7.00 Kempton Agent Of Fortune 7/2

    ON THE BRIDLE
    6.00 Kempton Penarth Pier
    7.00 Kempton Sherpa Trail
    8.00 Kempton Hieronymus

    VICTORY
    No bet
    Colin

  2. MONTHLY GUEST TIPS (Feb: 4/37,10p = +4.9)

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    Recommended:

    4:50 Winc – 1pt win Malachys Girl @ 11/2 (general) UP
    5:20 Winc – 2pts win Swift Crusador @ 11/1 (general) 2nd

    Total staked 3pts

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    Ask For Glory (3:50 Wincanton) represents a powerful combination at this track, and the Paul Barber-owned novice hurdler ought to improve the already impressive Wincanton record of Paul Nicholls and Harry Cobden, particularly with main rival Minella Beat returning from wind surgery and likely to need the outing having been off since bleeding when runner-up on his hurdles bow at Fontwell in October.

    The selection ran into the highly regarded Son of Camas on his first start over timber at Newbury, and had another smart sort in King Roland to deal with, so did well to be beaten just 4½ lengths into fourth place. The son of Fame And Glory was far from disgraced when ninth in the Weatherby’s Champion Bumper at Cheltenham last March, and after keeping such hot company since his successful debut at Chepstow 14 months ago, he will appreciate this easier task, and should prove very hard to beat.

    Malachys Girl (4:50 Wincanton – Nap) showed she was well suited by heavy ground when landing a four-year-old mares’ maiden point at Borris House in December 2017, and she has shown more than enough under rules for Ben Pauling to think she can score off top weight in the 2nd CRS Customer Raceday Handicap Hurdle against a rather motley bunch. She ran well in a bumper at Cheltenham before being switched to hurdles after a break last winter. Two runs over timber revealed plenty of ability, and she again ran respectably when reappearing at Taunton after almost a year on the sidelines, having plenty of use made of her before fading late into fifth behind Republican and Flic Ou Voyou.

    The fourth won next time out, and several of those who finished behind her have run well since, so the form looks sound, and the daughter of Darsi should have derived plenty of benefit from that run. With conditions sure to suit, and the handicapper not going overboard, she should make a bold bid at a track which favours those on the pace.

    The concluding hunter chase looks like it should be easy pickings for the classy Art Mauresque, but closer examination shows that his task is much harder than it appears at first glance. The former Paul Nicholls-trained gelding is still racing in the colours of Johnny de La Haye, but is now trained by Tom Malone, and has won a point-to-point for his new handler. Unfortunately, he was turned over in a weak mens’ open last time when a 4/11 favourite, and the key to that defeat lies in the ground as much as the three mile trip.

    The gelding did win on heavy ground on his debut for Guillaume Macaire some seven years ago, but his record since shows that he does not want the mud, and in a long career with Nicholls, he has gained just a solitary place on ground described as soft or worse. He may be able to outclass today’s rivals, but I’m sure that’s what connections thought last time, and he merely needs to finish in the first three here in order to qualify for the Fox Hunters’ Chase at Aintree, which you would think is his main aim this spring.

    Given the conditions, and the need to get around safely as a first priority, he looks opposable for win purposes, and the vote goes to Swift Crusador (5:20 Wincanton). The selection is a heavy-ground winner who looked promising for Evan Williams before developing an issue or two, but he was very well backed against the likes of Bob And Co and Ballynagour on his hunter chase debut for Sam Drinkwater, and was in front and trading shorter still, albeit a long way from home, when unseating his rider. Given his main rivals are best on a sound surface, and that Chef D’Equipe isn’t in the same bracket as the same owner’s Bob And Co, it is worth taking a chance on Swift Crusador to make amends for his unfortunate experience, and prove that the gamble on his last time was not misplaced.

    Regards,

    Rory

  3. Nice pick Josh, I went against it, thought I’d lost only to see that mine was withdrawn lol

    Nice treble on the Nicholls too 🙂

    Cheers,

    1. Cheers – haha, well that’s always a bonus! 🙂

      Yep, 7.7/1 or so treble if getting Bog I think… many may have just backed the 1st one and nice drift on him, relatively – i’m a bit anti odds on shots/proper shorties, but putting them in multiples seems to be way forward – i think that’s the 3rd or 4th time they’ve all won when all short – he’s had a double and treble I think at Muss this month, that one today. Some drift on the middle one also 1/2>5/6. Can’t complain, they’ve done their job, even without the biggie a solid enough profit.
      Josh

  4. North American racing – Wednesday.

    Gulfstream race 3, 7.00 UK, Joyous Times 6/1.

    Gulfstream race 8, 9.33 UK, Hop On The Bus Gus 13/2 and Banana Kitten 12/1.

    Good luck.

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