Members Daily Post: 25/02/20 (complete)

Main tip x1 + write up, Section 2 (complete), test zone, micro monday, video

1. My Tips

2.Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.General messages/updates/new reports etc

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1. My Tips

Daily Chase Tips Main (2019: 24/165, 49p +16.8 ) Jumps Festival Tips (2018:+143; 2019: 6/99,27p, -45.8,)

Daily Chase Tips: Main (2020: 2/38,6p, -26.8)

(handicap chases, 2m7f+, C4+)

4.15 Catt – Absolutely Dylan – 1 point win – 5/1 (bet365) 9/2 (gen) UP 9/2, disappointing, fun for a long way but tired 3 out, having maybe gunned too hard on front end, but likely just not good enough on day/yet to recapture previous form. Ask Paddy wins again, Grange Ranger 22s>10s ran well as support suggested he might, inexp just catching him out- 2/3 howlers, he’s clearly chucked in as would have won that but for those and i’m not sure how he got so close given those blunders. He should find something at say Sedgefield or Hexham, maybe with a more positive ride/clearer sight of fences. 

that’s all for today, as of 08.27, write up at bottom of post…

 

Best of The Blog? (test: 1/16, 6p; -7.5)

None.

 

2.Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

JUMPS 

Catterick 

4.15 – Absolutely Dylan (hncp c, micro age) 30 ES+  9/2 S3A UP

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TTP Chase Micros 2019/20

4.15 – Absolutely Dylan (hncp c, micro age) 9/2 UP

 

 

Welcome Post

Please Read: All information regarding the members club and how to engage in the content, what all the red symbols mean etc. Inc contact info, research articles and much more can be found HERE>>>

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3.Micro System Test Zone

Monthly Trainers

(2019: +17.56 BFSP; 2020, +61.62 SP, +144.2 BFSP) 

Sue Smith (any odds)

4.15 Catt – Absolutely Dylan 9/2 UP

 

4.General messages/updates/new reports etc

Micro Monday Post HERE>>>

(finalised trainer/micros report for Festival)

 

3.35 Kempton Review – a look back at the race/horses/Mister Malarkey and then I talk through the race replay, a couple of eye-catchers – hopefully something of interest>>>

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4.15 Absolutely Dylan – 

I’ll trust in the Smith/Cook combination to bring some tipping cheer today. This one has the odd question given LTO but Cook jumps back on and the fact is, if he placed/ran much better he wouldn’t be 9/2 in this line up, given his profile/past form. He’s the only horse in this with a handicap chase win in heavy, and that was at Haydock, so i’d like to think conditions will be just fine – and he’s always shaped like a slogger to my eyes. He’s 2/9 over fences and there should be more to come, back down to his last winning mark. For me it’s a question of whether he gets back to his Oct-Dec 2018 chase form, as I think that’s better than anything in here has achieved in recent years. He was consistently in and around 115-125 animals, many of whom franked the form. That Newcastle C3 effort is decent form in the context of this race. Whether he can get back to that level we shall see but I can’t think connections will want to mess around now and will just want wins on the board. He would have needed his return in November, (as with all of Smith’s at the time). He then had another 70 days off before being sent off at 5s LTO when falling at the 5th. 

Smith is 4/13,7p in the last 30 days and Cook is in form, 7/23, 14p in the same period. Together they are 4/10,6p in the last month and they’ve always done well here together, 15/55,27p, +11 SP – 8/22, 14p, +15 in handicap chases last 5 years- as Trainer/Jockey combo micros go over fences, this one should continue to tick along. 

Pace wise… Danny usually likes to be aggressive around here and he won’t be far away – what with the fall LTO he may not want to be throwing him at fences but before that he’s been a sound jumper. Ask Paddy and Loose Chips like to get on with it and maybe he will just track the pair, but at some point he will press on and if he’s leading over the last he may keep grinding away when many of these have given up…

Of the rest…

Well if he doesn’t run his race then Ask Paddy is the main danger, along with Agamemmon, but I don’t think he’s been beating much at all, certainly LTO (although he was impressive enough, but up against dross) and he’s now up another 8lb. An in form Absolutely Dylan will be a different proposition to anything he’s faced during his winning run – but he should run his race. Proper heavy ground is a question though. 

Agamemmon is in form but also with a question over heavy, the level of his form (0/10 of those to have run since from his Sedgefield chase win two starts back) and is on a career high chase mark – although this is only his 12th chase and he’s won off 118 before, so that may not stop him. It will take some effort also carrying this weight in heavy. That was an ok effort LTO though, in a better race than this. But i’ve gone with the proven mudlark who should have race position on him and who could have more room for manoeuvre in his mark. 

The rest I can leave and if something takes it so be it – Above Board may be of some mild interest but ground is a complete unknown, he’s usually held up and arrives in no sort of form. Jonjo has a more fancied one on the card and with any luck that’s why they’ve made the trip! In any case his price wasn’t big enough for me given the questions and these colours have started to give me punting chills. He’s got 11-12 to lug around and needs more from somewhere. 

Grange Ranger is worth keeping an eye on – just because he’s in the ‘could be anything’ category, on 1st start for Hammond. He’s had very few career runs and came 2nd in a soft ground Point in December. It’s his first run for Hammond and he’s being nibbled at. Some of his maiden hurdle form would indicate there is ability there and that a mark of 109 is very workable. The horse just has too many questions for me, but his canny trainer will get wins out of him somewhere. Hammond’s is a hard yard to get right, especially fitness – he can ready them but in the last 5 years is 6/122, 16p with his handicap chasers returning 60+ days off the track. Any crash in price would be intriguing but not for me today. 

Surely Loose Chips at 14 won’t be winning this?? If he does i’ll cheer him on if i’m well stuffed, but not for me. 

Againn Dul Aghaidh is worth tracking also for the future. Moderate enough but his trainer knows what he’s doing with a small string and there was some promise LTO, in a moderate race- he was never put into it and stayed on, first run for the yard. He’s a 3m winner and this trip will suit. The ground is a question and he’s rated 94, and usually held up cold. Still, when dropped in class/up against lesser oppo, back at 3m possibly on better ground – i’d be surprised if Groucott doesn’t get more wins out of him (1/10,2p over fences to date). He may outrun his odds today but i’d like to think something with more ability will take this, but he could be well handicapped. 

If one of the others takes this so be it – they all just have too many questions to my rusty eyes. 

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

8 Responses

  1. A couple for Catterick today if on,
    4-15. Loose Chips 6-1 ew , up 3lb for win lto but still well in on best form and this 14 yo veteran looks to still have a few good runs left in him.
    4-45. Too Many Chiefs 10-1 ew, could this be the the day for the mud loving stayer to make his comeback to form still only 9yo and won over c&d off 18lb higher mark 14 months ago.

  2. VICTORY
    Lingfield
    2.30 Calidus Mirabilis
    4.00 Dark Vader
    5.00 Come On Bear

    COLINS BETS and ON THE BRIDLE
    No bets
    Colin.

  3. MONTHLY GUEST TIPS (Feb: 4/35,9p = +7.9)

    Recommended:

    3:00 Ling – 1pt win Noble Peace @ 4/1 (general) UP
    4:30 Ling – 1pt win Alveda @ 12/1 (general) WON 12/1>9/1

    Total staked 2pts

    —————————–

    Noble Peace (3:00 Lingfield) was not seen to best effect last time, having to settle well back in the field from the worst of the draw, and then forced to suffer as the gallop failed to unwind as necessary. That run can be thrown out, and while he’s gone up a fair bit in the weights, his second to Agent of Fortune over a mile here looks the best recent effort on offer, and he’s drawn much better on this occasion. He can bounce back to form, and that may be enough to be successful for the fourth time since Simon Pearce took over the training licence from mother Lydia late last year.

    The Ladbrokes Home Of The Odds Boost Median Auction Maiden Stakes doesn’t look a bad affair, and Alveda (4:30 Lingfield) is fancied to put her experience to good use. The daughter of Archipenko is trained by George Margarson for wealthy owner/breeder Kirsten Rausing, and I don’t recall the Newmarket handler having many, if any, in these colours before. She’s needed the experience in two starts to date, but built markedly on her debut effort when 3½ lengths fourth of 10 to Sansevero in a maiden at Chelmsford last time.

    That is solid form for this level, and I would be more confident about her running to that level or better than I would be about likely favourite Bythebay, who was a 50/1 shot when runner-up here on his racecourse bow. That is arguably the best form on offer, but horses who run so far above expectation at the first time of asking don’t always improve as much as expected for the run, and can take a backward step. That would be a concern, as would the form of the Joe Tuite yard, accepting that he’s not had many runners of late.

    The concluding Bombardier Golden Beer Apprentice Handicap is competitive, albeit less so with two of the originally declared runners already scratched. Alan Bailey, one of the oldest public trainers currently with a licence announced his intention to retire late last year, but he’s been enjoying a good run of late, and plans to hang up his boots have been put on hold for a while as a result. The octogenarian saddles Come On Bear (5:00 Lingfield) with the mare on the cusp of a hat-trick.

    She seems to have benefited from the removal of a visor on her last few starts, and although wins at Wolverhampton and Chelmsford in recent weeks have come off a basement mark (unpenalised for winning an apprentice race on the first occasion), but she’s only 3lb higher here, and has a decent draw from which to get a handy pitch. There is absolutely nothing wrong with her attitude under pressure, and that is a big positive at this lowly level, and George Rooke retains the ride having done the steering for those two wins.

    Regards,

    Rory

  4. 4.45 Catterick Sweet Vinetta I think the booking of B. Hughes looks very interesting (especially on previous team ups ) . I know Mr R chapman ( also stable jockey of choice for the stable stays with Too Many Chiefs. But I think personally Sweet Vinetta is the one to be on here ? and as far as i understand Sweet vinetta is one of the best horses in the stable or potentially anyway ?

    Thanks

    1. best of luck – I think they liked her but whether one of best in yard i’m not sure, doesn’t seem to be progressing anymore from 107, although they wouldn’t have the largest string.
      I thought she had questions to answer in heavy, and combined with trip even more so – having just looked for interest I didn’t think she screamed stayer given how she’s been running, but it is more of a query – today may tell us plenty more. Maybe Hughes style will eek out plenty more from her, not impossible! (she’ll obv now relish conditions and bolt up!)
      Ross Chapman is interesting – not sure if he had the choice and has just picked the other one? Can’t think they’d have jocked him off Sweet V but who knows! Hughes just wants rides/winners, and will get on anything he can that has a sniff- that horse may have been only one he could get on given other jockeys/trainers, assuming Chapman had the choice, but that’s guessing.
      Anyway, best of luck! If she stays, she should be in there pitching.

  5. North American Racing – Tuesday.

    All Philly Park.
    Race 2, 6.22 UK, Always Free 7/1.
    Race 4, 7.16 UK, Bills Mafia 20/1.
    Race 5, 7.43 UK, Uncle Manny 5/1.
    Race 10, 9.58 UK, Mark One 7/1.

    2/43 to date, -28.5.

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