Members Daily Post: 24/02/20 (complete)

Kempton Review

A quiet start to the week… There’s no jumps racing so no main content from me. I’m sure there may be some AW Trainer Track Profiles quals that Mike will post in the comments and you other lovers of the sand will have some thoughts! Given my double at Lingfield on Sat in the ‘through the card’ maybe I should convert!

Paul Nicholls had another double figure priced winner (and a shorty, they’re clearly best taking a price on BOG if you can) for the monthly trainers on Sunday to keep those ticking over. While my tipping isn’t providing much cheer at the moment, thankfully that approach is so far this jumps season. I’ll research some for March later in the week I think… I want to try and combine it with assessing which trainers are in form/could burst into form but we shall see what I find. If you want one systematic approach to follow, starting small and building up, those monthly trianer angles look like a good place to start.

Onto Monday… This is the week I complete my Festival stats/trends pack and Mondays Micro Monday post will look at a few more micro angles. But come week end I plan to have all the trends complete for my 13 or so target races.

I may also record a review video of that Kempton chase, a look at Mister Malarky and maybe talk over the race replay for anyone interested, as always with some focus on trying to learn for the future.

Josh

 

3.35 Kempton Review – a look back at the race/horses/Mister Malarkey and then I talk through the race replay- hopefully something of interest>>>

 

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

7 Responses

  1. COLINS BETS
    4.10 Southwell Maykir

    VICTORY
    3.40 Southwell Jack The Truth
    6.30 Wolver Tabaahy
    7.30 Wolver Dazzling Darren

    ON THE BRIDLE
    2.05 Southwell Watheer
    3.40 Southwell Zapper Cass
    4.45 Southwell Straitouttacompton
    Colin

  2. The final nail in the coffin of any hopes of getting money back from MoPlay seems to have been hammered in, it would seem that the parent company Addison Global was dissolved on Feb 18th even though the gambling commision and ICAS seem unaware of this fact.
    But as MoPlay have yet to be declared insolvent under their T&C’s depositors money should be kept in a seperate account from company assets but withdrawal of this money is being blocked by MoPlay so when insolvency is declared it can be used to pay off vast company debts, MoPlay have been in financial difficulties since March last year but have been allowed to continue to trade and except new customers and deposits i find this inaction from the regulatory authorities disgraceful and a full inquiry should be set up to look at the system failures. I would urge all MoPlay customers to contact their MP and avail them of these facts.

    1. I didn’t have an account, but is is a shocker that they were continuing to trade and take new customers. It becomes a Ponzi, and I think we have seen this with bookmakers before. Seems as though the industry is viewed as something a little seedy – a view reinforced by the behaviour of even the biggest bookies – and so the authorities appear not to care much about regulation.

    2. Thanks for the update Martin.
      Bad state of affairs I must say. Totally takes the Mickey.
      Just puts me off the sport a bit. Too underhand

  3. MONTHLY GUEST TIPS (Feb: 3/33,8p = -3.1)

    (received at 12pm, apols for delay, too immersed in Festival stats!)

    Recommended:

    6:00 Wolv – 1.5pts win Queen Aya @ 5/1 (general)

    Total staked 1.5pts

    —————————————–

    The loss of Fairyhouse and both turf fixtures in Britain leaves Monday looking sparse, although there is an additional fixture on Fibresand at Southwell to ease (prolong?) the pain of punters left bereft by the lack of jumps action.

    Equidae (4:45 Southwell) looks the safest bet on a hastily arranged card at Southwell on Monday, and Iain Jardine’s son of Equiano is clearly at his best when front running on Fibresand, his record when sent forward in such conditions reading 121, and despite that record, he’s still lower in the weights than when gaining the first of those wins. He was back to his very best when making all and quickening off the home turn to win by last time by 3 lengths from Three C’s, thereby overturning previous course form with the runner-up, and a rise in the weights will not stop him if he’s ridden in the same style. Equidae is a horse who settles much better when given his head early on, and he showed that perfectly last time. The nature of this meeting is that most of the races are rather weak, and the five-year-old won’t need to do any more than he did last time to extend his winning run.

    Form pick in the Dunstall Park opener is Buy Me Back, but it’s intriguing to see that the Lethal Force filly has left trainer Archie Watson without winning, which is something of a rarity, whereas Dancing Feet (5:30 Wolverhampton) makes her debut for Watson after being sold for just £3,000 out of David O’Meara’s stable since a promising debut at Doncaster in June.

    Normally that would look a negative, but Watson has a tremendous record with his inmates at this sort of level, and as a daughter of Footstepsinthesand, she should relish this surface (the offspring of the sire have a 19.5% record over C&D, yielding a profit of £1,089.20 to a £10 stake). On the other hand, the progeny of Buy Me Back’s sire Lethal Force fall well short of market expectations on Tapeta. None of the market leaders have good draws on paper, but that should be an irrelevance in a field stacked with newcomers who will need experience.

    Queen Aya (6:00 Wolverhampton – Nap) disappointed on her most recent start, but has a couple of efforts which make her look well treated at this level, and a wind operation since last seen will hopefully prove beneficial. She shaped well when third to Caspian Queen and Cool Sphere at Windsor in July, and that pair are now rated in the 80’s. Far from disgraced when fourth on her nursery bow, she lines up for this weak 0-60 off top weight, and should really make it count against inferior rivals. When teaming up with Luke Morris this year, trainer Ed Walker has a record of six wins and seven seconds from just 23 runners, and those numbers augur very well for the prospect of Queen Aya running to form on her return to action.

    Regards,

    Rory

  4. North American racing on Monday evening.

    All at Philly Park.

    Race 6, 8.10 UK, Feduciary Values, 15/2 Betfair.
    Race 7, 8.37 UK, Verrazano Vittou, 7/1 Bet365.
    Race 8, 9.04 UK, Phish Fan, 13/2 Bet365.
    Race 9, 9.31 UK, Teak 5/1 Bet365.
    Race 10, 9.58 UK, Bradshaw 14/1 Bet365.

    Good luck.

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