Members Daily Post: 23/02/20 (complete)

1. My Tips

2.Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.General messages/updates/new reports etc

*

1. My Tips

Daily Chase Tips Main (2019: 24/165, 49p +16.8 ) Jumps Festival Tips (2018:+143; 2019: 6/99,27p, -45.8,)

Daily Chase Tips: Main (2020: 2/37,6p, -25.8)

(handicap chases, 2m7f+, C4+)

None, no races of choice.

 

Best of The Blog? (test: 1/16, 6p; -7.5)

None.

 

2.Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

JUMPS

Fontwell

2.20 – Victors Serenade (all Hc’s) 30 ES+  9/1 S3A

 

 

Please Read: All information regarding the members club and how to engage in the content, what all the red symbols mean etc. Inc contact info, research articles and much more can be found HERE>>>

*

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

Monthly Trainers

(2019: +17.56 BFSP; 2020, +53.9 SP, +132.2 BFSP) 

Paul Nicholls (any odds, 8/1< best)

4.00 Wolvs – Birds of Prey H1 I3 11/10 

4.20 Font – Ostuni 7/1

4.30 Wolvs – Rhytmn Is A Dancer 11/4

5.00 Wolvs – Red Force One H1 I1 15/8 

 

Chase Angles 2019/20 

LTO winners starting point (12/1<)

2.20 Font – Echo Watt H1 I3 G3 11/10 

 

Jockey Angles 2019/20 

2.20 Font – Alf N Dor (17/2< guide) 14/1

 

Chase Eye-Catchers 2019/20 

2.40 Naas – Monkshood (hot form/1st run) 16/1

 

 

4.General messages/updates/new reports etc

/

About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

17 Comments

You can post comments in this post.


  • Think you’r so unlucky with Black Corton yesterday Josh, possibly could of stuck the winner up also and had 2 picks but it’s always easy to say that after
    There’s no doubt at all surely for anybody that Black Corton is the best horse in that race. Gave a stone to the winner
    I picked Double Shuffle out sort of wanting a decent price about a pick, but I said about BC going from the front and ended up backing that aswel after I saw you’d put him up
    Was happy with Bryon lining up and then the horse gets a bit lit up and ends up being side on at the start, sort of new straight away that wudn’t have anywhere near as good a chance with his racing style when ending up mid div
    Watched the race back a few times and when gets to the end passes everything to finish 2L behind. If he’s racing from the front he wins that for me, or at least has a right ding dong battle to the finish with Mr Malarky
    Just my opinion, plenty won’t agree but thought I’d post up my 2 pence worth
    I enjoy going back and looking at races
    I’d not even looked at Mr Malarky, iv never backed him just one iv skipped over, think similar sort of form lines with Kildisart where got some peices of great form in behind in big races. The main thing iv not picked up on with him is that he’s only 7 so obviously more room for improvement that’s others in this obvs. Young Jonjo a cracking jock aswel, had a great position all race and then took to the front at the perfect time

    Ryan Mercer 22/02/20 10:17 PM Reply


    • hmm yep, I think you’re being generous there, if i was a religious follower of my tips i’d be furious at leaving MM out, and I haven’t been that angry for a while, the problem is that was predictable when asking myself which horse winning would infuriate me, as per write up – i mean Black Corton, if he has the same trip as Mister M, he wins I think- it was a poor ride, i’m not sure what the thinking was and i’ve no idea why he was lined up so wide, he covered so much extra ground than the winner. He was very close to him at one point as they turned out final time when jonjo pressed forward and BF just sat there, quiet- it was odd as he was staying on at the end, but that’s racing. I’m not sure why she didn’t have him more central nor why didn’t press him forward when it slowed down. There’s a debate to be had whether she’s a one trick pony… Can get a chaser jumping/dictating but may be tactically naive after that/lacks a punch in a finish. Possibly.
      But that’s no excuse for the main error- I’ve still no idea why my muddled mind went two points on him rather than splitting them. (well i’m just in a rut/confused thinking this season to date and I don’t like looking for excuses) Deep down it was the ‘safer’ option which is the kind of thing you do when in atrocious form. I tipped him LTO when a NR – the RSA 4th and that Aintree run, and Hennessy 4th were all the hints needed that he had a decent handicap chase in him, (and not many in here could match such form) and clearly better ground is key – and that race LTO may have come too soon after his start before. He also lost a shoe in that Aintree 2nd, 8lb actual weight less on back here. Given he trapped along on front end around there i’m not sure why I thought track may be a neg and I knew Jonjo would be as aggressive as the horse would allow him to be, based on how he rode him at Aintree on Good. Tizzard in form etc. I’m fine with putting up BC, but leaving MM was criminal and sadly indicative of my mental frailties at the moment. He was 14s, that allows a play given the niggles. I’m not really sure why I did that. My EW pokes rarely place and my 2 point wins never win! 🙂 Infuriating as that minus pile should look quite a look better. It’s just not good enough at the moment. I’ll click back into life one day but plenty of questions for me to answer at the moment and it is concerning. But on we march. I’m just saving it up for The Festival 🙂 At least the write up was good, some will have had a saver, and the ‘through the card’ showed some ability to land on winners.

      Kildisart gave the impression he may be being aimed at The Ultima, but will need the ground to dry out somewhat. But in the notebook for that I think given his course form.

      Josh 23/02/20 2:16 AM Reply


      • I thought BF was quite poor yesterday. The ride on Southfield Stone wasn’t great either.

        James Gilbert 23/02/20 10:21 AM Reply


        • Yep, I mean she’s always been a quiet rider but seemed to take it to extremes on those, esp with how aggressive over final couple. She’s very good on the front and getting them jumping/pace building up a lead etc, but some questions on other styles etc I think but there we go.

          Young Jonjo Junior is turning into quite the jockey now I think, esp over fences. That was a superb ride on MM.

          Josh 23/02/20 10:58 AM Reply


  • I guess it’s tougher for you Josh as you only have an initial pool of around 350 races per year to choose from anyway. By the time you’ve dodged some dodgy ones l guess you’re only betting in half of them. The losing runs are going to feel so much longer and play on the mind longer, maybe over thinking comes into play and compounds the losing runs further. I don’t know how to have 2 or 3 bets a week, I have 7 or 8 a day, winners and losers are forgotten about very quickly. There’s no time to dwell. If it makes you feel any better I’ve just come out of a 60% downswing on my bank that lasted 22 days solid. No profitable days at all, I was starting to get a little twitchy the last few days I must admit but I guess that happens when we go to new places that are a little darker than we’d like.

    handbag 23/02/20 9:29 AM Reply


    • Yep true, and the festivals also, which should be enough for a solid tipping element and has in the past but been a torrid time for a while and maybe yiu can over think, or over complicate. But you naturally need up questioning methods etc. Ultimately its a game in the head to a degree and it’s one of fine margins/decision making. There’s been a few near misses/first horses in danger pile winning and if they are tipped it looks a bit different. That’s the game but I need to just be better. Trying to work out how is the tricky bit but I’ll get there.
      The weekday stuff does feel increasingly awful quality wise and as always builds up to end of the week. And yep when playing in so few races it means the time can drag and maybe thats not good on the mind either but you have to try and channel it positively.
      I enjoy all the stats stuff and research etc but the real thrill comes from solving the puzzle over time etc and when you’re not its bloody infuriating esp when you think you’ve the ability and tools to be doing well. I always thought I was good dealing with pressure and we will find out whether that’s the case or not in next 2/3 months, which feel like a crunch period like no other on here previously, tipping wise.

      Josh 23/02/20 11:05 AM Reply


  • COLINS BETS, ON THE BRIDLE, VICTORY
    No bets today.

    What a dire days racing this Sunday could be the worst one this NH Season so far, and most of the others do not take much beating, once again the BHA have shone again with a AW bumper meeting at Wolverhampton, for betting purposes it is a no, no, and they can take me to the funny farm if i ever bet in bumpers!!!
    With this standard of Sunday racing maybe they should turn the clock back and have no racing on Sunday and give the Jockeys, Trainers and staff a day off, although a day off for the stables will not be quite true for they need to check the horses twice a day and many also check them around 10pm they also need feeding and exercising.
    Attendance for todays meetings would imagine very poor and betting turnover would imagine very low.
    Colin.

    cleafe 23/02/20 9:50 AM Reply


    • So True Colin

      stephen etheridge 23/02/20 6:04 PM Reply


  • I am actually giving up betting with the bookies and if I do bet in the future it’ll be with the exchange’s.
    MoPlay have highlighted how much bookies can take the piss. Not only do they simply limit, restrict or ban you whenever they feel like it with no explanations given, but now it seems they can simply shut up shop and keep your money and cut off any communication whatsoever. It really isn’t on.
    I know legally it’s ok because it’s all in the small print in the T&Cs but who looks through them?
    It’s hard enough trying to find winners and keep in the black with a betting bank, without it simply being taken from you from the people you bet with.
    I hate bookies!!!

    freezing1 23/02/20 10:13 AM Reply


    • Couldn’t agree more Freezing1, the only time I use bookies is when I want to do a little fun double or treble, they’re a waste of time otherwise. The amount of extra profit you get in the long run really isn’t worth the time and effort at all.

      Exchanges are the only place to bet unless you have nothing else to do with your time than move money around and quibble about restrictions.

      Restrictions, hunting around for best prices, managing multiple accounts are all pointless exercises. Just get your money on the hassle free exchanges and beat SP giving yourself more time for whatever else you want to do.

      Chris Albin 23/02/20 10:47 AM Reply


    • Yep that experience is quite awful and unlucky really. I’d separate companies like that from the big high street firms in sense of risk of insolvency and inability to pay out etc but does seem any money in MoPlay accounts is lost which just isn’t on. I hope you didn’t have too much in there.
      But as Chris says always the exchanges.

      Josh 23/02/20 10:56 AM Reply


    • Contact the Racing Post for advice they used to enter into disputes for the punter against the bookmakers no doubt their policy will have changed, but it is worth a try, for they may know something about what is going on.
      Had £1500 in 10bet when they restricted me so badly, tried to withdraw the money and all they kept asking for was my ID , having sent ID again they still would not transfer the money asking once again for ID, this firm was registered in Bulgaria, said to them you had my ID when opened account and you were not interested in anymore ID when i placed bets, and have now sent confermation of ID three times.
      It took 4 weeks of stress before they transfered the money.
      Colin

      cleafe 23/02/20 11:06 AM Reply


    • I feel your pain, luckily i only had £80 in my account and £30 of that was profit but it’s still money i can ill afford to “lose” , must admit i thought there was safeguards such as bonds put in place to stop this happening. As more and more people have their accounts restricted or shut down by the mainstream bookies punters will be tempted to use these fringe betting sites more and more. There is a lot of rumours about why this happened which i’m not going to repeat for legal reasons but Gibraltar isn’t a third world country and surely the policing of these betting sites should be more stringent.

      martin whittle 23/02/20 11:29 AM Reply


      • Just checked and the parent company of MoPlay, Addison Global, is listed as a registered operator on the IBAS site and i would hope that they may be able to assist in some way as i thought to be to be registered with IBAS customers deposit’s had to be ring fenced. I’m going to contact them tomorrow and see what they say.

        martin whittle 23/02/20 5:39 PM Reply


  • North American racing.

    Two winners on Saturday (At last) at 17/2 and 4/1 when put up. So they are now 2/39 -24.5.

    I am off to Cape Verde on Monday for a week’s winter sun break. I will try to post up selections internet and events allowing.

    Martin Colwell 23/02/20 10:31 AM Reply


  • Hiya, yesterday was a word out for me 🙁 only one placed.

    Only the one today:
    16:20 F Jamessaintpatrick

    Good luck to all,
    Cheers

    Nige C 23/02/20 12:10 PM Reply


  • North American racing on Sunday.

    All Golden Gate.

    Race 1, 8.45 UK, Top Tizzy 6/1.
    Race 3, 9.43 UK, Princess Rio 13/2.
    Race 6, 11.17 UK, Mon Camo 13/2.
    Race 7, 11.48 UK, Amber Louise 7/1.

    Good luck.

    Martin Colwell 23/02/20 7:33 PM Reply


Post A Reply