1. My Tips
2.Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs
3.Micro System Test Zone
4.General messages/updates/new reports etc
1. My Tips
Daily Chase Tips Main (2019: 24/165, 49p +16.8 ) Jumps Festival Tips (2018:+143; 2019: 6/99,27p, -45.8,)
Daily Chase Tips: Main (2020: 2/37,6p, -25.8)
(handicap chases, 2m7f+, C4+)
3.35 Kempton – BLACK CORTON – 2 point win – 2nd, 2L.
Best of The Blog? (test: 1/16, 6p; -7.5)
None, i’ll do an ITV 7 ‘through the card’ for mild interest
2.Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs
12.40 – Our Power (micro TJC) 13/2 UP
3.35 – Crievehill (m TJC) w2 I3 20/1 S2A UP
Newcastle – Abandoned
3.Micro System Test Zone
(2019: +17.56 BFSP; 2020, +53.9 SP, +132.2 BFSP)
Paul Nicholls (any odds, 8/1< best)
12.40 K – Storm Arising 9/1 UP
3.02 K – Bathsheba Bay 25/1 UP
3.35 K – Adrien Du Pont 5/1 UP
Jockey Angles 2019/20
3.35 K – Just A Sting (17/2<) H3 G3 7/1 UP
4.10 K -Commandant (3rd run) 50/1 UP
4.General messages/updates/new reports etc
Saturday Trainer Pointers
Saturday Big Race Stats/Trends/Trainer Pointers
3.35 Kempton: 3m G3 Handicap Chase
Trainers (to have won race/with runners)
- Adrien Du Pont / Sametegal / Black Corton / Romain De Senam
- Just A Sting
- Double Shuffle
- Mister Malarky
ITV ‘Through The Card’
3/7, 5p, +3.625
A bit of fun for ITV 7/placepot purposes, do with it as you please. As always not ‘tips’ bar Black Corton but hopefully 2/3 can go in…
1.15 K – Southfield Stone – 5/1 2nd – PN is 6/10 in this race and SS could well get to dictate here. I think it’s between him and Comanche Red but that tactical positioning/pace swung it and CR could get tapped for toe at some point if given a patient ride over shorter/better ground than LTO (however that race is working out very well). Master Tommy T is a danger also but I wonder if he may get a confidence boosting ride after the fall LTO.
1.50 K – Solo – 15/8 WON – a non betting race really imo given the guesswork/unexposed nature of the horses but one for free ITV 7 players/placepots etc. If the market is to be believed it’s between the top two. This one is a talking horse from the yard I suppose with some solid French form in the book already. They like him. It amazes me the number of horses in these colours who pull very hard/don’t like being in front too long, so it will be interesting if he’s another like that or not! They can be longer term projects for fences down the line. But the yard seem bullish and they’re in cracking form – this could be one of those Nicholls Saturdays, but we shall see.
2.05 L – Hareem Queen – 4/1 WON– hmm, well shes unexposed, races prominently and the yard are in form, as is the horse. She’s also got the best GG speed rating by some way and in 5f sprints they’re a decent guide of sorts. It’s her first run at the track I think which poses a question but it seems an open race on paper. I can leave the Spencer horse as she will be held up cold, or has been to date, which generally isn’t great over this CD, however there’s a chance they go quick enough.
2.25 K – Quick Grabin – 14/1 UP – hmm, well he’s the only G1 winner in the race when trained by Mullins and there’s a chance he will appreciate the drying ground. He may have needed the run LTO also, and the yard will be getting to know him. He could be a lively outsider in what feels an open race, for ‘interest’ purposes, if you must. Elgin would be some danger if ready to go but 4s for one who’s returning after 589 days may be short enough. Song For Someone is solid and Aidan may try and burn them off from the front.
3.02 K – Buzz – 2/1 UP– he was a decent flat performer who hasn’t done much wrong over hurdles to date. He’s open to plenty of improvement from a decent enough yard!
3.15 L – Dubai Warrior – 7/4 WON – another ‘non betting’ race to my eyes and surely it’s between the top two in the market here. The Balding horse may take this but I thought Frankie will have an opportunity to ride a tactical race and he could well beat him that way – i think he will have track position on his main rival and is open to progress also. On what they’ve done to date you’d think it’s between the top two.
3.35 K – Black Corton (main tip) – 11/2 2nd – , big priced dangers could be Mister Malarkey /Double Shuffle, write ups below.
Maybe my confidence will prove misplaced with this cracking little horse but I just thought he had so much in his favour here that they could be chasing his tail come the last. He rarely runs a bad race and keeps running up to his mark and beyond it (according to his RPRs). He goes well fresh and I suspect this has been the plan for sometime. It could his Gold Cup, certainly in handicaps, and it’s a nice pot to win. Nicholls will have targeted this race, as he often does. Conditions look ideal for him. 3m around here will suit better than Ascot and the better ground is in his favour also – although I suspect it’s soft enough in places, but won’t be as bad as the two Ascot runs this season so far. He will race on the pace and should take it up at some point. If he’s able to dictate then even better although a few may want to be up there also – however i’m not sure it will be a cavalry charge but I could be wrong.
His form is just rock solid and he should run his race, which is a question for a few in here. He’s faced 6 of these 9 times previously and been ahead of them all. His Galway Plate run was superb as was his next start at Ascot, beaten 6L but an unexposed 150s horse, with Regal Flow (the Ascot specialist) in 2nd, who’d win next time, the front 3 somewhat clear. He’s 4lb lower than for that effort and I think even a repeat of that would be good enough here. He’s a G1 and G2 winners and just has a touch of class. Nicholls is in cracking form and top weights/classy horses have a fine record in this. His form is generally just much better than the rest of these, certainly in recent races. I thought he will run up to his mark, if not higher, and that will be enough against these. I didn’t think anything looked chucked in and there is no thoroughly unexposed/in form hot pot to spoil things.
Obviously given it’s a 2 pointer he will consent to UR or something for the first time in his career but I just thought he ticks every box really, especially in the context of the oppo. He’s probably one of the safest EW bets you will ever find esp with 1/5 5p up for grabs but that isn’t my way, however much I occasionally try.
Who may beat him?
The most annoying winner would be Mister Malarky WON 14/1>9/1, painful (now 14s>10s) who will appreciate any drying ground – he definitely has more handicaps in him and could go close here, but I wasn’t sure 3m around here would be ideal, and he could get tapped for toe at some point. If he’s tracking the pace/popping away and keeping tabs on BC, I will start to get worried. He does have the odd question now though but the yard are going well and he could appreciate the break.
Double Shuffle gets a mention as he does like it around here and was second in the race last year. He does have less weight on his back but isn’t getting any younger and I thought he’d need more than last year- a few in here are better than Walt on a going day and it feels a deeper renewal to my eyes. But again this could have been the plan and the yard are going well, he should race up there also. I can see the EW appeal with both of those mentioned.
Those three made up my shortlist and I was happy to leave the rest for one reason or another at he prices…
Adrien Du Pont is usually ridden cold/out the back and at what was 5s or so, that’s always too short for that sort around here I think. He needs more and will want a strong pace. He may loom up if he gets it but I could leave him. Just A Sting needs more and this is deeper than LTO – he may also have been lucky to win that given the 2nd got the last wrong which may have cost him. He is in form though and lightly raced in handicaps, but needs more, up in class.
Sametegal is 11 and he’s yet to prove he fully stays this trip – if he beats me so be it – it’s Nicholls and the horse was in decent form when last seen. I thought there may be stronger stayers here but he’s being nibbled at. He hasn’t had much racing and hasn’t won since March 16 but maybe he will spoil the party. Not for me though.
Whatmore – he’s unexposed and has some solid form in the book – he’s one to track as should have chases in him – that Huntingdon race is working out very well. However I think they may hold him up, he has stamina to prove, and his jumping is still too ponderous for me. He could be one for next season. But his hot form/general profile is worth noting/adding to any trackers. He will come good chasing at some point.
Kildisart has a few questions now, much like Mister Malarky and their form ties in. He will appreciate this better ground but may want it even less testing. It’s not impossible his season is being shaped around Aintree again, but again I could be wrong on that. If he got back to the level of that Aintree win he’d be a big danger. Given though that he does have form on soft, i’d liked to have seen a bit more the last twice, even though it was very testing.
Dashing Perk is unexposed over this trip but has a stamina question, he’s out of the handicap and this is some step up in class/opposition. A few too many questions although this race can throw up the odd mild surprise, and he would be one. Bottom weights/those carrying 10st don’t have a good record in this mind but he’s fit, in form and still open to progress. I’m not sure he will stay though, and may not have the class to keep tabs as the race hots up.
Highway One O One still has questions over this trip and I don’t think he’s running as if well handicapped. He wasn’t great when last seen either and I can leave him.
I think Talkischeap is here for a spin round/blow the cobwebs away. Hopefully he retains ability as he should have a nice handicap pot in him at some point, when firing on all cylinders. His Sandown win still sticks in the mind.
Crievehill – I think this may be hot enough for him and he’s now 9lb above his last win. He will appreciate the better ground and I suppose is no forlorn hope if you ignore LTO. The selection has stuffed him twice though and i’m not sure why he should reverse that form, if both running their race.
Azzerti has ability but too many questions at the moment and he doesn’t run like a stayer. Romain De Senam – this is a prep for the GN by all accounts (i’m not sure he fully stays 3m to my eyes!) and he’s 11lb higher than when 4th in this last year, i’m not sure how he builds on that but indications are that he will need the run.
So, that’s the lot.
Pace wise… BC will be up there. BF will want to lead at some point but is a good judge of pace and he can just sit handy if needs be. With any luck he takes it up at some point on the final circuit, she can get a breather in and steal it on the bend turning in, pop the fences up the straight, the odd chaser making errors in behind, job done 🙂 Double Shuffle may want to be up there – Jonjo Junior may mix things up on MM and be aggressive if he can. Sam may not be far away on Crievehill – Dashing perk has led the last twice but up in trip Nico may be more patient, although he does like being aggressive around here. It should all settle down within 1/2 a mile or so. Fingers crossed.