Members Daily Post: 22/02/20 (complete)

1. My Tips

2.Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.General messages/updates/new reports etc

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1. My Tips

Daily Chase Tips Main (2019: 24/165, 49p +16.8 ) Jumps Festival Tips (2018:+143; 2019: 6/99,27p, -45.8,)

Daily Chase Tips: Main (2020: 2/37,6p, -25.8)

(handicap chases, 2m7f+, C4+)

3.35 Kempton – BLACK CORTON – 2 point win –  2nd, 2L.

 

 

Best of The Blog? (test: 1/16, 6p; -7.5)

None, i’ll do an ITV 7 ‘through the card’ for mild interest

 

2.Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

JUMPS

Kempton

12.40 – Our Power (micro TJC) 13/2 UP

3.35 – Crievehill (m TJC) w2 I3 20/1 S2A UP

 

Newcastle – Abandoned 

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Please Read: All information regarding the members club and how to engage in the content, what all the red symbols mean etc. Inc contact info, research articles and much more can be found HERE>>>

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3.Micro System Test Zone

Monthly Trainers

(2019: +17.56 BFSP; 2020, +53.9 SP, +132.2 BFSP) 

Paul Nicholls (any odds, 8/1< best)

12.40 K – Storm Arising 9/1 UP

3.02 K – Bathsheba Bay 25/1 UP

3.35 K – Adrien Du Pont 5/1 UP

 

Jockey Angles 2019/20 

3.35 K – Just A Sting (17/2<) H3 G3 7/1 UP

 

Chase Eye-Catchers

4.10 K -Commandant (3rd run) 50/1 UP

 

 

4.General messages/updates/new reports etc

 

Saturday Trainer Pointers

Saturday Big Race Stats/Trends/Trainer Pointers

3.35 Kempton: 3m G3 Handicap Chase    

Trainers (to have won race/with runners)

  • Adrien Du Pont / Sametegal / Black Corton / Romain De Senam
  • Just A Sting
  • Double Shuffle
  • Whatmore
  • Mister Malarky
  • Crievehill

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ITV ‘Through The Card’ 

3/7, 5p, +3.625

A bit of fun for ITV 7/placepot purposes, do with it as you please. As always not ‘tips’ bar Black Corton but hopefully 2/3 can go in…

1.15 K – Southfield Stone – 5/1 2nd – PN is 6/10 in this race and SS could well get to dictate here. I think it’s between him and Comanche Red but that tactical positioning/pace swung it and CR could get tapped for toe at some point if given a patient ride over shorter/better ground than LTO (however that race is working out very well). Master Tommy T is a danger also but I wonder if he may get a confidence boosting ride after the fall LTO.

1.50 K – Solo – 15/8 WON – a non betting race really imo given the guesswork/unexposed nature of the horses but one for free ITV 7 players/placepots etc. If the market is to be believed it’s between the top two. This one is a talking horse from the yard I suppose with some solid French form in the book already. They like him. It amazes me the number of horses in these colours who pull very hard/don’t like being in front too long, so it will be interesting if he’s another like that or not! They can be longer term projects for fences down the line. But the yard seem bullish and they’re in cracking form – this could be one of those Nicholls Saturdays, but we shall see.

2.05 L – Hareem Queen – 4/1 WON– hmm, well shes unexposed, races prominently and the yard are in form, as is the horse. She’s also got the best GG speed rating by some way and in 5f sprints they’re a decent guide of sorts. It’s her first run at the track I think which poses a question but it seems an open race on paper. I can leave the Spencer horse as she will be held up cold, or has been to date, which generally isn’t great over this CD, however there’s a chance they go quick enough.

2.25 K – Quick Grabin – 14/1 UP – hmm, well he’s the only G1 winner in the race when trained by Mullins and there’s a chance he will appreciate the drying ground. He may have needed the run LTO also, and the yard will be getting to know him. He could be a lively outsider in what feels an open race, for ‘interest’ purposes, if you must. Elgin would be some danger if ready to go but 4s for one who’s returning after 589 days may be short enough. Song For Someone is solid and Aidan may try and burn them off from the front.

3.02 K – Buzz – 2/1 UPhe was a decent flat performer who hasn’t done much wrong over hurdles to date. He’s open to plenty of improvement from a decent enough yard!

3.15 L – Dubai Warrior – 7/4 WON – another ‘non betting’ race to my eyes and surely it’s between the top two in the market here. The Balding horse may take this but I thought Frankie will have an opportunity to ride a tactical race and he could well beat him that way – i think he will have track position on his main rival and is open to progress also. On what they’ve done to date you’d think it’s between the top two.

3.35 K – Black Corton (main tip) – 11/2  2nd – , big priced dangers could be Mister Malarkey /Double Shuffle, write ups below.

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3.35 Kempton

Black Corton

Maybe my confidence will prove misplaced with this cracking little horse but I just thought he had so much in his favour here that they could be chasing his tail come the last. He rarely runs a bad race and keeps running up to his mark and beyond it (according to his RPRs). He goes well fresh and I suspect this has been the plan for sometime. It could his Gold Cup, certainly in handicaps, and it’s a nice pot to win. Nicholls will have targeted this race, as he often does. Conditions look ideal for him. 3m around here will suit better than Ascot and the better ground is in his favour also – although I suspect it’s soft enough in places, but won’t be as bad as the two Ascot runs this season so far. He will race on the pace and should take it up at some point. If he’s able to dictate then even better although a few may want to be up there also – however i’m not sure it will be a cavalry charge but I could be wrong.

His form is just rock solid and he should run his race, which is a question for a few in here. He’s faced 6 of these 9 times previously and been ahead of them all. His Galway Plate run was superb as was his next start at Ascot, beaten 6L but an unexposed 150s horse, with Regal Flow (the Ascot specialist) in 2nd, who’d win next time, the front 3 somewhat clear. He’s 4lb lower than for that effort and I think even a repeat of that would be good enough here. He’s a G1 and G2 winners and just has a touch of class. Nicholls is in cracking form and top weights/classy horses have a fine record in this. His form is generally just much better than the rest of these, certainly in recent races. I thought he will run up to his mark, if not higher, and that will be enough against these. I didn’t think anything looked chucked in and there is no thoroughly unexposed/in form hot pot to spoil things.

Obviously given it’s a 2 pointer he will consent to UR or something for the first time in his career but I just thought he ticks every box really, especially in the context of the oppo. He’s probably one of the safest EW bets you will ever find esp with 1/5 5p up for grabs but that isn’t my way, however much I occasionally try.

Who may beat him?

The most annoying winner would be Mister Malarky WON 14/1>9/1, painful (now 14s>10s) who will appreciate any drying ground – he definitely has more handicaps in him and could go close here, but I wasn’t sure 3m around here would be ideal, and he could get tapped for toe at some point. If he’s tracking the pace/popping away and keeping tabs on BC, I will start to get worried. He does have the odd question now though but the yard are going well and he could appreciate the break.

Double Shuffle gets a mention as he does like it around here and was second in the race last year. He does have less weight on his back but isn’t getting any younger and I thought he’d need more than last year- a few in here are better than Walt on a going day and it feels a deeper renewal to my eyes. But again this could have been the plan and the yard are going well, he should race up there also. I can see the EW appeal with both of those mentioned.

Those three made up my shortlist and I was happy to leave the rest for one reason or another at he prices…

Adrien Du Pont is usually ridden cold/out the back and at what was 5s or so, that’s always too short for that sort around here I think. He needs more and will want a strong pace. He may loom up if he gets it but I could leave him. Just A Sting needs more and this is deeper than LTO – he may also have been lucky to win that given the 2nd got the last wrong which may have cost him. He is in form though and lightly raced in handicaps, but needs more, up in class.

Sametegal is 11 and he’s yet to prove he fully stays this trip – if he beats me so be it – it’s Nicholls and the horse was in decent form when last seen. I thought there may be stronger stayers here but he’s being nibbled at. He hasn’t had much racing and hasn’t won since March 16 but maybe he will spoil the party. Not for me though.

Whatmore – he’s unexposed and has some solid form in the book – he’s one to track as should have chases in him – that Huntingdon race is working out very well. However I think they may hold him up, he has stamina to prove, and his jumping is still too ponderous for me. He could be one for next season. But his hot form/general profile is worth noting/adding to any trackers. He will come good chasing at some point.

Kildisart has a few questions now, much like Mister Malarky and their form ties in. He will appreciate this better ground but may want it even less testing. It’s not impossible his season is being shaped around Aintree again, but again I could be wrong on that. If he got back to the level of that Aintree win he’d be a big danger. Given though that he does have form on soft, i’d liked to have seen a bit more the last twice, even though it was very testing.

Dashing Perk is unexposed over this trip but has a stamina question, he’s out of the handicap and this is some step up in class/opposition. A few too many questions although this race can throw up the odd mild surprise, and he would be one. Bottom weights/those carrying 10st don’t have a good record in this mind but he’s fit, in form and still open to progress. I’m not sure he will stay though, and may not have the class to keep tabs as the race hots up.

Highway One O One still has questions over this trip and I don’t think he’s running as if well handicapped. He wasn’t great when last seen either and I can leave him.

I think Talkischeap is here for a spin round/blow the cobwebs away. Hopefully he retains ability as he should have a nice handicap pot in him at some point, when firing on all cylinders. His Sandown win still sticks in the mind.

Crievehill – I think this may be hot enough for him and he’s now 9lb above his last win. He will appreciate the better ground and I suppose is no forlorn hope if you ignore LTO. The selection has stuffed him twice though and i’m not sure why he should reverse that form, if both running their race.

Azzerti has ability but too many questions at the moment and he doesn’t run like a stayer. Romain De Senam – this is a prep for the GN by all accounts (i’m not sure he fully stays 3m to my eyes!) and he’s 11lb higher than when 4th in this last year, i’m not sure how he builds on that but indications are that he will need the run.

So, that’s the lot.

Pace wise… BC will be up there. BF will want to lead at some point but is a good judge of pace and he can just sit handy if needs be. With any luck he takes it up at some point on the final circuit, she can get a breather in and steal it on the bend turning in, pop the fences up the straight, the odd chaser making errors in behind, job done 🙂  Double Shuffle may want to be up there – Jonjo Junior may mix things up on MM and be aggressive if he can. Sam may not be far away on Crievehill  – Dashing perk has led the last twice but up in trip Nico may be more patient, although he does like being aggressive around here. It should all settle down within 1/2 a mile or so. Fingers crossed.

 

 

 

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A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

21 Comments

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  • 15:35 Kempton
    CREIVEHILL 1pt win 20/1 gen
    SAMETEGAL 1pt win 12/1 gen

    14:45 Newcastle
    FORTIFIED BAY 1pt win 14/1 gen
    PRIME VENTURE 1pt win 17/2 gen

    write ups in morning.

    Stewart 21/02/20 8:47 PM Reply


    • CREIVEHILL
      I think the key with this one is the lay off and ground, he didn`t handle the really sloppy ground last time out and it showed finishing 9th of 9 runners, but, on a more decent surface today and with the big race Saturday king on board STD, he should go well enough and I believe he is over priced here, the gurus always say “He`s gone up in the weights and faces a stiffer task”, but, NTD always takes that on the chin and if they’re good enough I don`t think he worries about how much weight they have, look at Ballyoptic last week as an example?
      SAMETEGAL
      Now, having looked at the 3 Nicholls runners, (it obviously looks as though he really wants this with 3 entered), this one looks the best value, the race over Christmas is key and this one takes on two of those rivals, but getting 6 and 8lbs respectively which in my book puts him well in and with a 5lb claimer on board I think Nicholls has put this down as Sametegals last hurrah. I know I can hear Josh saying 11yr old in a high class race, are you mad, well, we all know the answer to that and if this one is near at the last fence, everyone beware!!!
      FORTIFIED BAY
      Well, some might say I have gone mad in this race also, but, aren`t we looking for value in these big races? He has course form, not over the distance and maybe I have got th etwo at the wrong end of the weights, but, this one is progressing and may still be ahead of the Handicapper , so, at 14`s is definitely value, think the bookies have forgotten how well he won here LTO.
      PRIME VENTURE
      Doesn`t win that often and is top weight, taking a risk and he may finish out the back of the tv, but, he ran really well in the Welsh National and I think that the further this one goes the more he has to offer, so, this trip may play to his one and only strength, staying when all others have given up the ghost, we shall see, but, with 7lbs taken off and the price to tempt me I have waded in…
      Just a quick note on the weights, they don`t do bad or disappoint in this race, know Josh and maybe some others will wade in, saying I`m wrong, but, six out of last 10 runnings have carried 11st or more and 3 out of the last 6 have been won by claiming jockeys, so, it looks as though claimers are used to fruition here by the trainers…food for thought, excuse the pun.

      As always hope all jockeys and horses come back safe and sound and good luck with whatever your selections are today.

      Stewart 22/02/20 7:59 AM Reply


      • literally just finished write up to see Newcastle abandoned….Doh!

        Stewart 22/02/20 8:05 AM Reply


        • best of luck Stewart, good to read the reasoning as always 🙂 You plucked out Walt in this last year didn’t you? Does throw up the odd biggie – it will be typical for me to now get done by another Nicholls horse, aged 11!
          A shame Newcastle was off – I was all over Petite Power if he was 6s+ I think, in what would have been a bog – and was getting towards agreeing with you about Fortified – a weak renewal of the race and he hasn’t done much wrong the last twice, and could have been an interesting outsider but we will never know. Not sure if they will reschedule it back there, or somewhere else.

          Josh 22/02/20 11:11 AM Reply


  • bit Of a head twister this 3.20 at Kempton 2moz
    Black Corton could obviously be dangerous if gets to the front and gets jumping to make all, which is surely what Bryony will do.

    Liked the look of Double Shuffle mark dropping again but more importantly returning to Kempton coupled with ground not being as bad as last run. Ran well in this last year off a higher mark and very similar prep

    Slight note to Kildisart as some of back form does look very good, also returning to decent ground after 2 runs on heavy

    But I’m going with Double Shuffle getting a decent lump of weight from BC, on the nose, hopefully Burkey can get into him a bit earlier on the straight to get him going as will be finishing strong

    Ryan Mercer 21/02/20 10:48 PM Reply


  • Storm Rising Kempton 12:40 1pt e/w
    Southfield Stone Kempton 13:15 1.5pt win
    Double Shuffle Kempton 15:35 1pt e/w

    NickM 22/02/20 8:10 AM Reply


  • Fairyhouse 3-27. Ballymadun ew 16-1 bfsb 5 places, debut over fences lto and back hurdling today , this looks a weak race and is his best chance for quite a while if he can lug 2nd top weight around.

    martin whittle 22/02/20 8:41 AM Reply


  • Hi all,

    So here are mine today:
    12:40 K Polish, Earth Moor and Larkbarrow Lad
    14:17 F Georgette Fun
    15:02 K Benson
    15:35 K Dashing Perk, Crievehill and Double Shuffle
    16:10 K Keep Wondering and Templepark
    16:45 K Minella Tara

    Good luck to all and I’d better do the bloody forecast this time eh?

    Cheers,

    Nige C 22/02/20 9:42 AM Reply


  • Hi josh I’ll be back in a couple of weeks with the historical facts – was doing the eider this week and I am in London for a days next weekend taking in Fulham v Preston
    Cheers

    harrys 22/02/20 10:09 AM Reply


  • Today I like:

    1.15 KP, Erick Le Rouge, 10/1, 1 point win.

    2.25 KP, Diego Du Charmil, 5/1, 1 point win.

    4.02 Fairyhouse, Sub Lieutenant, 18/1, 1 point win.

    Good luck.

    Martin Colwell 22/02/20 10:15 AM Reply


  • COLINS BETS
    4.10 Kempton Ibleo

    VICTORY
    4.10 Kempton

    ON THE BRIDLE
    1.30 Lingfield Agent Of Fortune 6/1
    4.25 Lingfield Battle Of Marathon 4/1
    7.30 Chelmsford Waddat 7/2
    8.00 Chelmsford Verne Castle 7/2
    Colin

    cleafe 22/02/20 10:24 AM Reply


  • VICTORY
    4.10 Kempton Ibleo
    Colin

    cleafe 22/02/20 10:25 AM Reply


  • LAMBOURN
    Ed Walker good word for both of his runners tonight,
    6.00 Chelmsford Dame Joan currently 12/1 and it is taking on an odds on fav from the Appleby yard, may be worth EW.
    7.30 Chelmsford Mount Mogan currently 7/2
    Colin

    cleafe 22/02/20 10:44 AM Reply


  • AW T/T

    3.50 L Arcanada…T Dascombe Hcp…4/1
    6.30 C Nonios…D Simcock Hcp…4/1
    7.30 C Time to strike…D Simcock Hcp…11/4

    Mike

    michael Dennis 22/02/20 10:54 AM Reply


  • MONTHLY GUEST TIPS (Feb: 3/33,8p = -3.1)

    (apols for delay, email received 12.30)

    Recommended:

    3:35 Kem – 1.5pts win Whatmore @ 11/1 (general)
    3:35 Kem – 1.5pts win Highway One O One @ 18/1 (Bet365, Hills, BetVictor)

    Total staked 3pts

    ————————————-

    Kempton:

    12:40 Betway Handicap Hurdle 2m 5f

    Palmers Hill showed that he could go well after an absence when landing a conditional riders’ handicap hurdle at Cheltenham in November 2018, beating a subsequent winner into second in a big and competitive field, and defying an official mark of 124 with plenty in hand. He reappears here for the first time since, and while the absence is a concern, the fact that he’s previously been declared for a pair of Pertemps Qualifiers is encouraging. Connections have abandoned the plan to get him into that race, and this is a prep for either the Coral Cup or the Martin Pipe next month.

    Palmers Hill was a £310,000 purchase as a 4-y-o after winning his point, and connections have shown him great patience with this only his fifth start under Rules in the intervening period. He did well to win between the flags as a youngster given he’s a very late foal, and he looks the type to improve plenty more despite his age. This will be the first serious test of his future prospects, and he’s expected to come through it with the dream still alive.

    1:15 Betway Pendil Novices’ Chase (Grade 2) 2m 4f 110y

    Despite the fact that he’s taken a couple of heavy falls in his short career over fences, Mr Tommytucker has shown himself to a fine jumper, but one who has yet to learn how to adjust himself when getting one wrong. He was tremendously fast from one side of a fence to the other when winning over a shorter trip on his return here, and was showing the same quicksilver tendencies until misjudging the fourth-last fence when still travelling well in the lead in the Grade 1 Kauto Star at Christmas.

    Confidence could be an issue after his latest mishap, but Paul Nicholls misses few tricks when it comes to schooling, and I can still see this talented if fragile gelding fulfilling his promise, and I’m hopeful that a little remedial work will fix the flaws in his jumping while allowing him to retain the basic technique which could make him very good indeed. He’s likely to be suited by this drop in trip, and the relatively small field should be a benefit, where he is virtually guaranteed an easy time of it in front.

    1:50 Weatherbys Festival Betting Guide Adonis Juvenile Hurdle (Grade 2) 2m

    Not an easy race to bet in, but it will be fascinating to see how Fujimoto Flyer gets on. The Admire Moon filly has an unusual pedigree for hurdling, but won a listed race at Auteuil after landing her maiden hurdle at Killarney for Emmet Mullins, only to be withdrawn by the stewards after planting herself at the start on her next intended run. That blip does not appear in the form book, and neither is it possible to view footage of the incident, so there are two warnings to heed – punters need to be aware that there is some kind of history with the filly, who was due to have her first run in the colours of Munir and Souede last time, and those screaming for refunds after the event would do better to be wise beforehand. On the other hand, it’s possible that the Auteuil incident was more innocuous than we might imagine, and labelling her a rogue is certainly premature. Whatever else may be the case, it’s almost certain that she will have benefited from a break after a busy summer/autumn.

    2:25 Betway Kingwell Hurdle (Grade 2) 2m

    Song For Someone ran a huge race at Sandown on heavy ground in December, finishing third to Mack The Man giving that rival the thick end of two stone, and they were split by subsequent Cheltenham Listed winner Protektorat. With many thinking Mack The Man might have won the Betfair Hurdle but for being brought down at the last, that form is clearly very strong, and Tom Symonds’s gelding followed that with an excellent second to Thomas Darby in Holloway’s Handicap Hurdle at Ascot last time, where Betfair Hurdle winner Pic D’Orhy was behind. You don’t have to take that form vaguely literally to see that Song For Someone has been under-hyped as others have been talked up as possible Champion Hurdle winners.

    With regular rider James Nixon unable to claim in this Pattern event, Symonds has booked Aidan Coleman, and the combination look the clear pick on form, with the drop in trip unlikely to pose a problem given how he travelled at Ascot.

    3:02 Sky Bet Dovecote Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 2) 2m

    Buzz is a horse I’ve always liked, and he showed some of his best Flat form here, albeit on the AW track. He’s won both starts to date for Nicky Henderson, and while many were unimpressed with his debut win at Taunton, the fact that the runner-up landed a Grade 2 prize on his next start puts that in perspective, and the son of Motivator beat a talented one in the shape of Glory and Fortune at Doncaster last time. Henderson could have run three here, including Son of Camas, and the fact that he relies on the exciting Buzz is encouraging.

    3:35 Betway Handicap Chase (Grade 3) 3m

    Whatmore very much caught the eye when third to Two For Gold and Hold The Note in a Grade 2 novice over this trip at Warwick in January, travelling well when meeting quite significant interference on the home turn. At the same time the front pair were kicking away from their rivals, and Henry Daly’s charge was very much in the wrong place at the wrong time. As a novice, he’s one of very few here with pretensions to improvement, and he looks very fairly weighted – in fact he’s lower in the weights here than he is over hurdles, and that looks generous on the part of the handicapper. In truth, he doesn’t fully convince as a stayer, and his run flattened out a little at Warwick, but Kempton on ground which will be on the good side of soft will give him every chance of getting home, and he appeals most in a race which isn’t quite as strong as the grade would imply.

    The other horses of interest to me here are Highway One O One and Dashing Perk, with preference at the prices for the former, who can be forgiven a poor run at Cheltenham last time, given he seems to hate that track, and his close third over C&D at Christmas gives him similar claims to Adrien du Pont and Just A Sting. He’s a much bigger price than that pair, and his form at this track means he needs to be backed at his current odds.

    Regards,

    Rory

    Josh 22/02/20 1:10 PM Reply


  • Bloody hell..Solo has obliterated that lot on the snap!

    Mac 22/02/20 2:01 PM Reply


    • That was rather impressive. Let’s hope he stays sound, could be some monster over a fence one day. It will be interesting what they do with him.
      Of course in hindsight the bet today, on the chance he would do that, would have been a nibble at 14s for Triumph! Alas. I’m not that clever.
      From noises they made you could tell they liked him. I’m not sure what he’s beta and will be interesting what the clock says but couldn’t have been more impressive.

      Triumph could set up for him as well given the amount of pace on paper with Allmankind and Goshen etc.
      If you’ve a skybet account with their concessions you get a free bet on 1st race of day anyway. Sadly 4s now mind!

      But a nice one for the future.

      Josh 22/02/20 2:06 PM Reply


  • Yes Josh,
    That was my first thought…What’s he beaten?
    when they asked Paul Nicholls who the he reminded them of he said….”Masterminded!”…..WOW!

    Mac 22/02/20 3:16 PM Reply


  • North American racing saturday evening.

    0/34 to date.

    Golden gate Fields
    Race 1, 8.45 UK, Perfect Sale 17/2; Race 5, 10.45 UK, Secretly Paranoide 7/1;
    Race 8, 00.19 UK, Spanish Magic 5/1.
    Gulfstream
    Race 11, 10.04 UK, Still Alive 20/1; Race 12, 10.36 UK, Blewitt 12/1.

    Good luck.

    Martin Colwell 22/02/20 6:28 PM Reply


  • Great analysis on the thru the card Josh, plus highlighting Mister Malarkey as the danger to BC, nice one 🙂

    Mark Curtis 22/02/20 7:59 PM Reply


    • Thanks Mark. Alas my post race reaction hasn’t been so positive. Woeful. My heads a muddle as we know and that clearly demonstrated it. Chasing the comfort of a shorty. Happy with BC but why oh why I haven’t just put 1 point on the pair. He was 14s when I was deliberating which made up for any niggles. It wasn’t enjoyable watching that for all that I had a saver but that’s not the point. Bloody frustrating and I’ll keep pondering what I can do to improve or what I’m doing wrong when it comes to the crunch. As it’s just not good enough and that effort should have been rewarded today. Although more positives in that write up/race than some recently.
      Of course I had a 2/2 on the all weather Typical!Frankies ride on that winner was something else. Pure pace setting poetry.

      Josh 22/02/20 8:19 PM Reply


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