Members Daily Post: 21/02/20 (complete)

1. My Tips

2.Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.General messages/updates/new reports etc

*

1. My Tips

Daily Chase Tips Main (2019: 24/165, 49p +16.8 ) Jumps Festival Tips (2018:+143; 2019: 6/99,27p, -45.8,)

Daily Chase Tips: Main (2020: 2/36,5p, -23.8)

(handicap chases, 2m7f+, C4+)

4.20 Exeter

#1 – ST ERNEY – 1 point win – 22/1 (WH/BetfS/BV/PP) PU 33/1 |40, he was very weak, and was awful from flag fall. Didn’t jump well at all.

#2 – WEST STREET – 1 point win – 22/1 (WH/BV) 20/1 (gen) UP 16s, ran ok but that wasn’t as testing as I thought it may be, he’s plugged on/gone with zest but not good/quick enough on day. The winner was 6s this morning and we were on 2 starts back, it was his first go on official heavy at a stiffer track and I can live with him at morning price, just about although when they win that easily always poses questions. The trip/tactical nature of race didn’t suit him LTO but he’s seemingly relished today’s ground/trip combo.

 

Best of The Blog? (test: 1/16, 6p; -7.5)

None today.

 

2.Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

JUMPS

Exeter

3.20 –

No Rematch (all Hc’s) 30  w1 ES+ H3 9/2 S3A 2nd 

Storm Force Ben (micro going) 14,30 14/1 3rd

3.50 – Jubilympics (all Hc’s) H3 I3 9/2  UP

4.20 –

Belle Empress (all Hc’s) w2 H3 G1 7/1 3rd 

Billy Bronco (all Hc’s) 30 w2 ES+ 16/1 S3A S2A  UP

 

Warwick

3.35 – Hang Tough (all Hc’s) 14,30 G3  7/2 WON 

4.10 – With Discretion (all Hc’s) 14,30 7/2  PU

4.40 – The Bay Birch (HcCh) I3 12/1  2nd 

 

*

Please Read: All information regarding the members club and how to engage in the content, what all the red symbols mean etc. Inc contact info, research articles and much more can be found HERE>>>

*

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

Chase Angles 2019/20

4.10 Warw- With Discretion (10/1<) 7/2 PU

4.40 Warw – The Bay Birch (10/1<) I3 12/1  2nd 

Jockey Angles 2019/20 

4.20 Exet –

Christmas In April (any) H3 I3 6/1  WON 6/1>8/1 

One Of Us (17/2< guide) 10/1 UP

Chase Eye-Catchers 2019/20

4.10 Warw – Midnight Tune (2nd run) H3  WON 2/1>7/4 

4.20 Exet – Indy Five (2nd run) 12/1 UP

4.40 Warw – Cloudy Glenn (1st run) H1 G1 11/4  Fell 

*

4.General messages/updates/new reports etc

Note... any stats/trends pointers for Saturday’s racing will follow here later Friday morning/lunchtime. 

*

4.20 Exeter

St Erney –

This lightly raced 9YO is in the ‘could be anything’ category and has a different profile to everything else in here. I thought he was worth a stab at 22s – he’s clearly had the odd issue but when he has made the track he’s yet to run a bad race. His one point, first run of his life it seems, was a staying on effort in heavy. He then ran in a couple of decent enough Novice chases where i’m not sure connections wanted him to get close to the leaders. Lil Rockerfeller (153) won the first of those but he stayed on there over 24f, first run in 280 days – fitness didn’t beat him. He was never put into the race at Chepstow either, won by a 149 rated horse – I suspect he couldn’t keep up but he crossed the line with loads left in the tank. He got his win at the track when last seen in soft, stamina winning the day but he was well on top come the line to my eyes. He has untapped potential in these conditions – if they can keep him sound he definitely has more staying chases in him.

At this price i’ll take fitness on trust – Jackie Du Plessis is 2/9,6p with her handicap chasers returning 181-365 days and he’s run well fresh. You wouldn’t chance it at 8s<, but he’s 22s. She’s also 5/19,8p with handicap chasers on heavy. She doesn’t have many horses but I suspect this is one of her better/the best chaser she has. I’d be surprised, given his profile, if he wasn’t here to run the race of his life. The lack of race fitness may catch him out late, and he may not stay, but he shapes as if well worth a crack at this. She’s had 1 runner over this CD previously and he came a close 4th, not beaten far. So, all in all, I thought an interesting outsider at 22s. When winning last time he travelled strongly behind the pace and with any luck will do so again. The market is rarely much of a guide with theirs

Westreet –

Unlike with Jonnie I won’t be falling off the sofa if this one is held up nearer last than first (ok, i’ll get my coat) but 22s seemed big for him – in what could be gruelling conditions I wanted a fit/proven heavy ground slogger onside and i’d venture to say he’s probably the strongest stayer in this race (well, certainly in with Dawson City/One of Us) and unlike all in here is proven over this trip+ in heavy ground.  Sherwood reports him to be working superbly at home and he still has untapped potential over marathon trips/in the slop. He would have needed his return run at Carlisle and I then fancied him in the Borders National – sadly he was badly hampered there which seemed to affect him and he was never really going after that. Those are the risks for hold up types although they do well over this CD (not a reason to be put off anyway) and while I generally don’t like that style, he is 22/1. LTO at Plumpton he was always on the back foot really – that track would not have suited him at all and he also had CP on which have now been removed – they probably wanted to sharpen him up for that track but it didn’t work. Still, he plugged on. These conditions will suit much better. IF he runs his race he really should be thereabouts, if this is as testing as I think it could be. Having 10-7 on his back with the claim won’t be a bad thing either.

So a couple of pokes, I haven’t really gone safe which given my form is probably risky but there we go.

The dangers…

Belle Empress... I like her chance but I didn’t like her price, she was generally 11/2 or so before 8.30 ish and I just couldn’t wade in at that price- she will stay, but she does have to prove she will stay in the ground – but she races prominently and I suspect will just keep plodding on. Like Weststreet I doubt Plumpton suited LTO and she hit some interference on the turn for home, although it didn’t cost her. She could well relish this ground/trip combination although she was out on her feet in her CD win two starts back. Still the money comes and I can see why. She is unexposed/lightly raced yet proven over the trip. She jumps well generally and will race prominently. It was a question of price and I may have her wrong. Were she 7/8s or so across the board when I was looking I may well have gone with her. Had her win here been in heavy, I may well have dived in at 6s, but 11/2 was getting on short end for me for a test like this. The most interesting of the ‘shorties’ though given her unexposed/slogger profile.

The other one i’ll mention – I did stare at Billy Bronco for a time and I was deliberating him and Westreet but went with the proven stayer. He’s also a bit tricky and hard to catch right but if he puts his best foot forward he’s another who could just keep plodding on. He’d be a tad annoying but if one of biggies does win hopefully i’ve landed on the right two. There’s a niggle over this trip/ground combo I think but he is a big price.

Of the rest…well I could go through them all but I can’t really be bothered. Nothing is ever a total shock in this game and certainly not in these conditions. If one of the 13 year olds takes this, so be it, i’ll doff my cap. Perfect Candidate is in decent form and could run a big race off top weight. A few of them have questions over trip/ground combo, he’s one of them as is One of Us who stays but I had niggles about his well-being after LTO, both his staying wins (28f+) are not the best form, and I’ve a big niggle over the ground – more an unknown really as they’ve kept him away from heavy since his bumper days – but he does stay well, and that counts for plenty. Ice Cool Champs is lightly raced but has questions also and his race fell apart LTO – but he’s fit and in form and the ground will be fine. I should mention Dawson City who goes for the 3 timer. He may get it but isn’t getting any younger and was 4s. That wasn’t overpriced but I suspect this has been the seasons plan and they’ve run him into fitness. He should go well.

So, best of luck with your picks. It looks a competitive renewals and could be some slog.

*

 

Saturday Trainer Pointers

Saturday Big Race Stats/Trends/Trainer Pointers

3.35 Kempton: 3m G3 Handicap Chase    

Trainers (to have won race/with runners)

  • Adrien Du Pont / Sametegal / Black Corton / Romain De Senam
  • Just A Sting
  • Double Shuffle
  • Whatmore
  • Mister Malarky
  • Crievehill

 

2.45 Newcastle: Eider Chase (8am inspection)

Trainers (to have won race/with runners)

TBC later in afternoon

 

About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

20 Comments

You can post comments in this post.


  • just time to put up my shortlist of possibles for tomorrow,
    Exeter.
    2-15. Midnight Tune
    3-20. July Les Buxy
    3-50. Daytime Ahead
    4-20. Dawson City/Weststreet
    Warwick.
    3-00. Deseray Girl
    3-35. Mogestic/Truckers Cailin
    4-40. The Bay Birch/ Bigmatre/ Beau Bay/ Cloudy Glen

    martin whittle 21/02/20 1:25 AM Reply


  • 16:20 Exeter
    BELLE EMPRESS 1pt win 7/1 365 6/1 gen
    I think it is best to stick down the bottom of the handicap and with course and distance winners in this race, BE won a right slog in December from Petite Power and looked as though this quirky course will suit this time round again as I think this was the target all season. Should be up with the pace and Ben Jones has been the find of this years crop of claimers, definitely on the up, so, with that claim again and a feather weight on her back i think it is the ladies time of year..
    ONE OF US 1pt win 9/1 gen
    Another who has been aimed at tis and with bottom weight and not many races on his back and a course and distance victory here, again its another one of the “in” jockeys that i like, think Sean Bowen always tries to give his all and his form is consistent, so, on a day when the rest of us will shiver in the stands he is out riding to the best of his ability. Should also race up with the pace and hopefully has enough in reserve to battle this out with BE.

    As always hope all horses and jockeys come back safe and sound and good luck with whatever you select today.

    Stewart 21/02/20 8:29 AM Reply


  • AW T/T

    1 winner yesterday Equidae

    2.55 L Peace Treaty…M Johnston T/J…10/1
    3.30 L Calder Prince…T Dascombe Hcp…4/1
    5.30 D Sheisdiesel…N Meade Hcp…9/4

    Mike

    michael Dennis 21/02/20 8:59 AM Reply


  • Hi, I have a Harry Fry angle jotted down in my notepad that i’m pretty sure i got from this blog.
    Harry Fry
    Hcap Ch/Hcap Nov Ch
    Horse had 0-1 run in 90 days
    Horse had 0-2 chase wins
    10/1 or less SP

    At the time, the results were 23/60, 32pl 38%, +47 AE 1.76 (2014>)
    There is a qualifier today at Exeter 2.15 Over to Sam
    I would be grateful if Josh or anyone else could check this. Thanks

    jamesm 21/02/20 9:09 AM Reply


    • Hi James

      It’s now 25/66,34p SP +48pts, BFSP +56pts A/E 1.71

      4.15E Sir Ivan is also a qualifier today

      Joe Healy 21/02/20 10:26 AM Reply


      • Apologies Sir Ivan is in 4.40 War

        Joe Healy 21/02/20 10:27 AM Reply


        • Thanks Joe, looks interesting cheers

          jamesm 21/02/20 10:55 AM Reply


    • Yep that’s it.

      It was 1/15 , -9 last year, a blip and not sure if a wider problem with stable, or just influx of unexposed horses etc. 1/2 so far this year.

      13/2< SP is best... 24/54, 30p, 44% sr, +59 BFSP, AE 1.89 7/1>10/1 … 1/14,4p, -3
      11/1+, 0/13,2p

      Small enough numbers mind and another ‘biggie’ will go in one day.

      Josh

      Josh 21/02/20 1:30 PM Reply


  • COLINS BETS
    No bet

    ON THE BRIDLE
    2.15 Exeter Over To Sam 13/2
    5.00 Lingfield Autumn Trail 5/2

    VICTORY
    3.30 Lingfield Fuente 5/2
    Colin

    cleafe 21/02/20 10:27 AM Reply


  • MONTHLY GUEST TIPS (Feb: 3/31,7p = -0.1)

    Recommended:

    3:50 Exet – 2pts win Midnight Sapphire @ 15/2 (Coral, SportingBet – 7/1 fine)
    4:20 Exet – 1pt win Ice Cool Champs @ 17/2 (Hills, 10/1 Bet365 – 8/1 fine)

    Total staked 2pts

    ————————————

    Stamina will be at a premium at Exeter on Friday, where the Be Wise Insurance Devon National is the feature contest. Polly Gundry’s Dawson City is aiming for an unprecedented three-timer in the marathon contest, and he will cope with the test better than almost all his rivals. This is a race in which it has been no advantage to have a light weight in recent times if the results are any guide, and the last six winners have carried 11st5lb or more.

    Ice Cool Champs (4:20 Exeter) benefited from a breathing operation and the fitting of a tongue tie when winning by ten lengths at Wetherby last time. That success has seen his chase mark rise by 10lb, but he remains fairly treated on the pick of his hurdles form for Philip Hobbs, and it’s notable that his wins in that sphere came on heavy ground and when stamina was a major factor. He ran poorly at this fixture last year, but that was his final outing for his old yard, and that breathing operation, in tandem with a move to Kerry Lee, seems to have done him a power of good. His best effort over fences prior to Wetherby came at this track, and with just a handful of runs under his belt over the larger obstacles, he still seems unexposed, accepting that he’s obviously had some issues along the way.

    Regal Flow ran poorly last time, but that may have come too soon after his heroic effort when almost winning the Veterans’ Final at Sandown, and he completes the shortlist. He may be ignored in the betting due to that “P” next to his name, but might be worth a saver, or even playing in exotics with the selection and Dawson City.

    Midnight Sapphire (3:50 Exeter – Nap) hasn’t had much racing in recent times, but she retains all her old ability as she showed when second in a mares’ handicap at Kempton’s Christmas meeting, matching her effort in the corresponding event from three years before. She’s now with the slightly unfashionable (at least away from the South-West point-to-point scene) yard of Gail Haywood, having spent time with Victor Dartnall and David Pipe, but is clearly of interest from her current mark having been out of the weights in that Kempton contest, and may well be allowed to go off at generous odds again, having been a generous 33/1 last time. She races off the same mark here, stays all day and handles very testing ground, so having been given time to freshen up, she should run another solid race for her followers.

    This represents a big drop in trip, but the nature of the track at Exeter will bring stamina to the fore, and she should not be overly inconvenienced, and before her previous placed effort in that Kempton contest, she had run well to be beaten in a tight finish at Sandown over 2m3f, proving her adaptability regarding trip, as long as ground conditions suit.

    Regards,

    Rory

    Josh 21/02/20 11:49 AM Reply


    • Hi Josh
      Yesterday’s part day off was hopefully good for you, however who are recording Racing Consultants results?

      On the 18th Feb – 2.35
      Yesterday 2 point win 7/2 to 15/8 there were 2 N/Rs after the bet was advised and there should be a 15% or 25% deduction cannot remember which,do feel it was 25%, even at 15% they cannot be + 4.65 up.
      If Racing Consultants are doing the figures then i think they are wrong, if you are then you are wrong, and certainly not saying that i could not be wrong for maths is not my strong point!!!
      On a serious point if R4s are being missed then past results will have to be taken with a pinch of salt.
      I have been recording win only and win only my figure is – 3.25, this figure is nothing to do with the above figure.
      Colin.

      cleafe 21/02/20 12:58 PM Reply


      • Hi Colin,

        Thanks for flagging that, it was 25p and results updated above accordingly.

        Bar copying those guest tips from my email into the comments it was as full a day off as I’ve had in I don’t know how long, very refreshing! I simply missed the NRs/R4 when going through results this morning, which i’d normally update/be on the ball with at the time of the race. I don’t trust anyone else with results updating on this site, in terms of declaring price etc for my content/guest tips. (but relies on eagle eyes when I make an honest error/omission)

        Josh

        Josh 21/02/20 1:28 PM Reply


        • Josh thanks for that took it that it was you updating the results, and certainly not having ago at Racing Consultants for i do know they are genuine and above board.

          This is a great tipster con advice bets night before or early morning, horse or horses pull out later in the morning and the R4 does not show up in the results for they were announced as N/Rs before the bookmakers open up betting on the course, and the tipster omits to put up a R4.

          Trust no one only Josh at RTP and Honest Colin, certainly watch all others with Eagle eyes Ha Ha, like it!!!
          Colin.

          cleafe 21/02/20 1:46 PM Reply


          • No probs, good to be on top of these things – i’d agree that’s a sure fire way to spot something dodgy if taking a low risk trial or something – is services ignoring R4s etc, and i’m sure there are a few of them around! Darren/betting school etc do all the admin for the services under their banner and from my experience are above board, and any errors would be genuine errors – but with these guest tipsters I think it’s best I keep our own results here as at least allows a fair comparison! Thankfully Bet365s results function had the R4/time of it – surprised not in Racing P results from what I could see.
            Josh

            Josh 21/02/20 1:49 PM Reply


            • Surprised at the RP, my love of this rag as been well documented, after i had a tipping line through Optimum Racing and had to contact RP with my advised prices, and after getting to know the lads in the office amazed at household names how they did not provide advised prices yet in their adverts they implied that RP proofed their results, afraid for me RP are only interested in the extortionate advertizing fees and as long as the tipster is paying for these they can do what they want.
              There in house tipster under the name of Pricewise never show the yearly results, only odd winner is mentioned, and years ago recorded his bets for two years and did he win of course not or they would proof all his results, the rest of there tipping team are as bad, however the lemmings think they are good for some reason.
              Synical me Josh for the N/Rs they do not record wonder why!
              Colin.

              cleafe 21/02/20 5:34 PM Reply


  • Hi all,

    Here are mine for today:

    13:25 W Lieutenant Rocco
    14:15 E Springfield Fox and Golden Sunrise
    14:47 E Butterwick Brook and Honest Exchange
    15:00 W Vienna Court
    15:35 W My Lady Grey
    16:10 W Top and Drop
    16:20 E Christmas in April and Perfect Candidate
    16:40 W Cloudy Glen and Beau Bay
    17:20 E Mocacreme Has and Mountain Leopard

    Good luck to all
    Cheers

    Nige C 21/02/20 12:12 PM Reply


    • Good day today, results were 11003020120302…nice profit 🙂

      Cheers

      Nige C 21/02/20 6:47 PM Reply


  • Still can’t access money stuck in my MoPlay account. Anyone else experiencing issues?

    freezing1 21/02/20 1:22 PM Reply


    • Hmm, well they’ve licence suspended but you should be able to get in and withdraw at some point. or contact solutions@moplay.com … any deposits should be protected but i’d get anything out asap. Their parent company appears to have big problems.

      Josh 21/02/20 3:22 PM Reply


      • Thanks Josh. Mailed them but no response as yet

        freezing1 21/02/20 7:58 PM Reply


Post A Reply