Members Daily Post: 20/02/20 (complete)

1. My Tips

2.Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.General messages/updates/new reports etc

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1. My Tips

Daily Chase Tips Main (2019: 24/165, 49p +16.8 ) Jumps Festival Tips (2018:+143; 2019: 6/99,27p, -45.8,)

Daily Chase Tips: Main (2020: 2/34,5p, -21.8)

(handicap chases, 2m7f+, C4+)

None, no races of choice.

 

Best of The Blog? (test: 1/16, 6p; -7.5)

None.

 

2.Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

JUMPS

Huntingdon

2.41 –

Skylanna Breeze (HcH,micro runs) 14,30 ES+ 12/1 S3A UP

Pond Road (HcH) 14,30 G3 10/1 S1 4th 

Nothing Man (All Hc’s) 20/1 S2A UP

3.41 –

Espion De Saflo (m age) G1 16/1 S1 S2A 3rd

Donatello Mail (all Hc’s) H1 I3 5/1 UP

4.11 – Brambledown (m dist) 12/1 

 

Sedgefield

2.03 – Mount Oliver (all Hc’s) ES+ 9/2 S3A 3rd 

5.03 – Xpo Universel (HcH)  w2 H3 I3 G3 7/1 S4 S1 UP

 

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Please Read: All information regarding the members club and how to engage in the content, what all the red symbols mean etc. Inc contact info, research articles and much more can be found HERE>>>

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3.Micro System Test Zone

Monthly Trainers

Sue Smith (any odds) 

3.33 Sedge – Informateur H1 I1 G1 5/4 WON 5/4>10/11 

5.03 Sedge – Kauto Damour H1 I3 11/4 UP

 

Chase Eye-Catchers 2019/20

2.25 Thurles – Tikkanen Express (HotForm – 1st run) 17/2 WON 17/2>10/1 

 

4.General messages/updates/new reports etc

 

Thursday… just to note i’m taking a rare whole day off from the blog on Thursday and have no plans to turn on the computer or think about horses etc. My head needs a non-horse, non-research, non-pondering racing day. There are some good races to attack Friday /Sat so hopefully a mini re-charge may help, it may not.  There will not be a full Trends Thursday post this week but i’ll post up some pointers for Saturday in Friday’s post around lunchtime- Friday’s post will follow first thing Friday morning, a holding post is scheduled so you can post in comments etc. Having said i’ll have a full day off I will need to post any tips from Rory in the comments at around the usual time.  Josh 

About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

27 Comments

You can post comments in this post.


  • Putting this one up early as some may be able to get the 20/1 with BV.

    2.50 Southwell Psychic power 20/1 BV

    K Burkes sole runner in a 3yo novice.Think one of the members did aa bit of research on his first time out 3yo’s not having such a good record at southwell,think the horse in question started slowly and it was too late when penny dropped and just didn’t get up in time.The owner John Dance does have some good horses though like Laurens.I thought the price might be 7 8/1 but at 20 just cant leave it unbacked.One of his big priced ones will drop in a some stage.

    gearoid180468 19/02/20 6:57 PM Reply


  • AW T/T

    6.30 C Ultimate Avenue…D Simcock Hcp…0/30
    7.00 C Desert Friends…D Simcock Hcp…5/1
    7.30 C Thomas Lanfriere…D Simcock Hcp…6/1
    2.20 S Equidae…I Jardine Hcp…9/4
    4.50 S Pumblechook…I Jardine Hcp…4/1

    Mike

    michael Dennis 19/02/20 11:28 PM Reply


  • Another place for my Irish selections 3/3 over the last 2 days so i thought i would ruin it and have a go at Thurles with 3 ew pokes.
    2-25. Kitten Rock 9-1
    2-55. Wounded Warrior 11-1
    4-25. Analyse That 12-1

    martin whittle 20/02/20 7:48 AM Reply


    • with WH paying 4 places in the 4-25 that’s 6/6 placed just need that elusive winner.

      martin whittle 20/02/20 6:54 PM Reply


  • I think this seasons National Hunt season has been tough, too many stops and starts and I believe that the form is all to pot. Last season I was able to look at horses that had run on certain goings and make a decision the night before, knowing that they would give a good account for themselves, this season I find myself waiting for going reports/ seeing if meetings pass inspection and generally looking and thinking I need to look again at this race as the going has changed. Confidence then gets dented and the number of times i have looked at a race and thought i have picked out 7 here and it`s only a 10 runner race. I think only 3 times this season I have managed to whittle the race down to 2, which is what I normally use as a yardstick, except in the bigger races where i may go 3, but, this is my thoughts on why I haven`t hit the mark this season for what it`s worth. I`m still just bobbing along, but, my confidence is low and it does affect your judgement, that win the other day was an exception rather than the rule, but, everyone has now worked out my thoughts for Irish racing and maybe I won`t get those prices again…I`m still one step ahead, but, the cat as they say is now out the bag, if everyone gets on at prices from here though, fair play, just leave a bit for me. Happy punting!

    Stewart 20/02/20 8:28 AM Reply


    • Agree something’s up form-wise! I have seen low returns since last August after 5 good years. Among other things I follow, or recently just track! Betting Gods tipsters. The site has provided successful tipsters over recent years, but few have seen anything but big losses over the last two or three months. There is a sense of desperation among those who depend on this for a living, running sites or tipping for them, as their income clearly can drop off a cliff in a matter of weeks.

      manyanga 20/02/20 9:07 AM Reply


    • I take your point but disagree. From my perspective this season has been fairly normal for a season with weather related disruptions. I can go back to the 70’s as a teenager and the days of Night Nurse and Monksfield and Sea Pigeon, moving into the 80’s. There were more meetings frozen off back then but knowledge and technology and possibly global warning has moved on since then. The going has always varied from heavy to firm dependent on the time of year.
      My results are similar to previous years. I have not seen much evidence to support this season being different from others that were similar. That is national hunt racing.
      But that is just my view.

      Martin Colwell 20/02/20 9:29 AM Reply


    • Last year was very wet all winter, and again like this year so far have had little snow or frost.
      Normally in the cold winters NH meetings are abandoned and they put extra AW meetings where the surfaces do not change too much, last year and this year sadly this as not happened, and the going at many NH courses as been dire.
      For myself have had a very good winter betting and i do feel that everyone should look at all codes of racing for the horse is bred for different going, courses and different times of year.
      Heavy going is terrible one slight mistake losing 4/5 lengths can be hard to pull back and these slight errors you cannot always see watching TV.
      Colin.

      cleafe 20/02/20 12:26 PM Reply


  • North American racing.

    How bizarre peaks and troughs are! After three months testing that were very successful we go live on here and are 0/34 to date. Three second places last night.

    So that must mean we are soon due a purple patch??????

    We shall see.

    Martin Colwell 20/02/20 9:32 AM Reply


  • COLINS BETS
    3.41 Huntingdon Donatello Mail 3/1
    2.20 Southwell Equidae 11/4
    8.30 Chelmsford Grandee Daisy 9/2

    VICTORY
    3.50 Southwell Nigel Nott 7/2
    7.30 Chelmsford Rulers Kingdom 15/8

    FAVOURED
    Stopped for not working at the moment and when i have time will review to see if i have the rules correct.
    No doubt one will fail after 25 years but who knows.
    Colin

    cleafe 20/02/20 10:36 AM Reply


    • Hi Colin
      Like you with Favoured I like to look at LTO beaten favourites. Two filters that I have added is that the selection must have won at least one of it’s last three races and I’m reluctant to bet in anything lower than class 3. Maybe worth looking at when you review your method.

      John Welsh 20/02/20 12:43 PM Reply


      • Thank you John for that, must admit most of my methods are for HCs upto grade 1 not keen on novice racing for they are babys and may well be distracted easily especially NH when going for the hurdle or fence.

        Interesting fact 7 winners out of the 10 winners have been on the AW, so this basic evaluation shows how garbage heavy going betting is! this could be the starting point of the review over the next few days.
        9/4, 10/3, 4/1, 5/1, 3/1 R425p, 9/2, 3/1,
        Colin

        cleafe 20/02/20 3:24 PM Reply


  • ON THE BRIDLE

    No bet
    Colin

    cleafe 20/02/20 10:37 AM Reply


  • has anyone heard any rumours about MoPlay ? can’t place a bet with them today they are only processing withdrawals.

    martin whittle 20/02/20 10:52 AM Reply


    • GIBRALTAR SUSPENDS ADDISON GLOBAL’S MOPLAY OPERATOR LICENCE
      …… DUE TO ‘SOLVENCY ISSUES’.

      manyanga 20/02/20 11:30 AM Reply


      • cheers for the reply, this is now on their website – Please note that MoPlay’s licence has been suspended and cannot take any further bets or accept other gambling activity. Customers are still able to access their accounts to withdraw any funds held in their accounts.

        martin whittle 20/02/20 12:45 PM Reply


        • disturbingly now they are unable to process withdrawals due to “technical issues”, i only have £80 in the account and started with £50 but would be a bit p*ssed off if it goes tits up and i lose it all.

          martin whittle 20/02/20 12:55 PM Reply


          • Martin cannot see you losing your money for feel that the bookmakers have charter similar to holiday firms, so if my memory is correct you should be okay.
            Remember it will take time to payout for the demand will be great and they will only have the same staff in accounts to payout.
            Hope this helps
            Colin

            cleafe 20/02/20 3:35 PM Reply


    • Yeah not letting me withdraw anything either

      freezing1 20/02/20 9:40 PM Reply


  • MONTHLY GUEST TIPS (Feb: 3/29,7p = +4.65)

    Recommended:

    3:11 Hunt – 1pt win Anightinlambourn @ 14/1 (general) NR
    4:11 Hunt – 2pts win Miss Heritage @ 7/2 (Bet365, Hills, BetVictor) WON 7/2> 15/8

    Total staked 3pts

    —————————————–

    Ben Pauling has one of the best of the British chances in the Grand National in the shape of Le Breuil, and when his horses are finally firing on all cylinders, I would consider a decent bet on the 2019 National Hunt Chase winner. Things have not gone as well as they might this winter for Pauling, but there have been a smattering of winners of late, with The Macon Lugnatic successful at Doncaster yesterday, and I thought Anightinlambourn (3:11 Huntingdon) shaped like a winner in waiting at Wetherby four weeks ago, travelling very well until meeting trouble and not fluent at the third last, and then keeping on again at the finish.

    The latter fact is important, and the daughter of Gold Well is bred to relish a longer trip which is what she gets in the Betway Mares’ Maiden Hurdle. She needs to improve by the best part of a stone, but the longer trip alone will help in that regard, and she appears to have plenty of scope to do better, and is preferred to the likes of Miss Honey Ryder, who is not the most consistent.

    I was keen on the chances of Enrichissant (3:41 Huntingdon) when he was due to run at Wincanton last month, and I see no reason to desert him after a promising second to Oscar Wilde at Sedgefield last time. That was his first run after a breathing operation and he improved greatly on what he’d shown on his chase debut. In terms of his hurdles ability, a defeat of Larkbarrow Lad and Espoir de Loire here last season makes him look very well treated even after a ride in the ratings to 114, and while he wasn’t foot perfect at Sedgefield, he is capable of jumping boldly, which is ideal for this track. A very promising horse in his bumper days, he can hopefully fulfil that early promise. As mentioned the previous day, David Bridgwater is doing well with his chasers this term, and his record with chasers since the start of December is 212114231F3.

    Miss Heritage (4:11 Huntingdon) was attempting to give a stone to the fairly useful winner Quantum of Solace on her handicap debut at Fakenham last time, and Lucy Wadham’s mare, a dual winner in bumpers for David Elsworth, is improving all the time over hurdles, and had beaten a subsequent winner in Molly Ollys Wishes on her previous outing at the Norfolk track. She will have no difficulty adapting to the different contours of Huntingdon given that he first win in bumpers came at Taunton, and her form in that sphere suggests she should be a little bit better than her opening mark demands.

    Regards,

    Rory

    Josh 20/02/20 11:46 AM Reply


  • Hi all,

    Bit puzzled that I think I’ve found some decent ones amongst this lot but it appears a quiet day? Anyway here goes with mine:

    14:41 H Project Mars and Say the Word
    14:50 So Phychic Power
    14:55 T Mighty Stowaway
    15:11 H Bit on the Side and Tequila Blaze
    15:41 H Massini Man
    16:12 H The Newest One
    16:25 T Comporta
    16:41 H Ibleo
    17:03 Se Oscars Leader

    Good luck to all 🙂

    Cheers

    Nige C 20/02/20 1:42 PM Reply


    • Phychic Power is from Gearoid – not one of mine but I’ve been reeled in lol

      Nige C 20/02/20 1:49 PM Reply


    • 14:11 Damn! Didn’t do the forecast

      Nige C 20/02/20 2:48 PM Reply


      • 14:41 even lol

        Nige C 20/02/20 2:53 PM Reply


    • So 1200000V011. Little bit of profit from the day 🙂

      Nige C 20/02/20 5:31 PM Reply


  • Nice outcome Nige.

    Mark Curtis 20/02/20 10:46 PM Reply


    • 🙂

      Nige C 21/02/20 12:13 PM Reply


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