Free Daily Post: 19/02/20 (complete)

The Big Three In Ireland >>>

The Irish Big Three: Some Stats 

The less said about yesterday’s abject effort from myself and Mon Lino the better – I thought he’d relish the mud but that resembled a sort of ‘Haydock Heavy’ which you either handle or you dont, and it doesn’t look like he did. Bar a horse not coming home the most depressing thing in this game is when your betting slip is screwed up on the floor after 1/2 a mile or so, when there’s still 3 miles to run! He was never really going a yard, didn’t track the pace, was sticky at his jumps and found himself near the back – he wasn’t enjoying life. Typical of my form this winter so far. Still, obviously i’m just waiting to burst into life in 3 weeks time! 🙂 

However, there’s always something to learn for the future… having failed to side with any horse from the Elliot/Mullins yards in a big chase, only to see one of them win, should always cause pause for thought and with that in mind, you may find the following of some interest >>>

Irish Handicap Chases: The Big Three

A case could be made that if you’re going to dip into an Irish Handicap Chase, just see if you can make a case for horses trained by 3 men (possibly with a look at those other trainers who’ve a decent race record, and I suppose Jessie H should never be underestimated) Obviously we know the horse power is concentrated in few hands in Ireland as per the stats below…

Starter Set

  • Ireland 
  • 2m6.5f or further
  • Class 1 or 2 
  • Trainers: Henry De Bromhead, Willie Mullins and Gordon Elliot
  • 2015>

When those three trainers have at least one runner in a race between them, hitting that starter set above:-

  • In all non handicaps: They win 67% of races 
  • In all handicaps: They win 47% of races
  • In Handicap Chases: They win 47% of all races
  • And in Handicap Chases with 16+ runners… they win 57% of all said races. (28 wins from 49 races) 

Obviously they’ll have a fair chunk of runners between them , and can’t just be backed blind, but still, impressive nonetheless and food for thought, especially if never having any of their charges onside!!! Doh. 

Some note of caution I suppose… what with Gigginstown pulling out of the game in the next few years that may have some impact, esp for Gordon and Henry –  so we shall see how that affects things. But still, not a bad ‘way in’ for next couple of years. You could clearly do a lot worse than just focussing on their runners in the conditions above. 


Paul Nicholls… 

…in other news hopefully those of you who noted my Feb angle for him from previous emails have been tucking in. I should clarify that all of my stats refer to UK/Irish form and do not take account of runs abroad, which can be ignored. 

In any case he had a 6/1 double or so yesterday with his two Scottish raiders (that’s 2x doubles with his Muss qualifiers now this month), both available at 6/4 in the morning, another +3 to the pot. 

My Monthly Trainers are now on around +153 points  BFSP since the start of September in the Members’ Club and are providing plenty of light in an otherwise dark season to date. A nice return even to £2 bets. He’s got two today and we shall see how they go…

4.05 Lud – Southfield Harvest 11/8 

5.02 Donc – Flash De Touzaine 6/1

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2 Responses

  1. Ed Walker gave a good word for
    8.00 Kempton Starfighter been backed from 9/2 to 7/2 at the moment, very honest trainer when assessing his horses and Luke Morris is in the plate alongside a good draw.

  2. Good Afternoon all, poor last night with me ignoring Assessor after pondering for ages and landing on the wrong two. Nothing grabbing me tonight, just doing a very speculative EW multiple to small stakes, Happy to share but not confident:

    7.30 Thegreatestshowman
    8.00 Albadr
    8.30 Lady Alavesa

    Have fun if you play 🙂

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