Free Daily Post: 19/02/20 (complete)

The Big Three In Ireland >>>

The Irish Big Three: Some Stats 

The less said about yesterday’s abject effort from myself and Mon Lino the better – I thought he’d relish the mud but that resembled a sort of ‘Haydock Heavy’ which you either handle or you dont, and it doesn’t look like he did. Bar a horse not coming home the most depressing thing in this game is when your betting slip is screwed up on the floor after 1/2 a mile or so, when there’s still 3 miles to run! He was never really going a yard, didn’t track the pace, was sticky at his jumps and found himself near the back – he wasn’t enjoying life. Typical of my form this winter so far. Still, obviously i’m just waiting to burst into life in 3 weeks time! 🙂 

However, there’s always something to learn for the future… having failed to side with any horse from the Elliot/Mullins yards in a big chase, only to see one of them win, should always cause pause for thought and with that in mind, you may find the following of some interest >>>

Irish Handicap Chases: The Big Three

A case could be made that if you’re going to dip into an Irish Handicap Chase, just see if you can make a case for horses trained by 3 men (possibly with a look at those other trainers who’ve a decent race record, and I suppose Jessie H should never be underestimated) Obviously we know the horse power is concentrated in few hands in Ireland as per the stats below…

Starter Set

  • Ireland 
  • 2m6.5f or further
  • Class 1 or 2 
  • Trainers: Henry De Bromhead, Willie Mullins and Gordon Elliot
  • 2015>

When those three trainers have at least one runner in a race between them, hitting that starter set above:-

  • In all non handicaps: They win 67% of races 
  • In all handicaps: They win 47% of races
  • In Handicap Chases: They win 47% of all races
  • And in Handicap Chases with 16+ runners… they win 57% of all said races. (28 wins from 49 races) 

Obviously they’ll have a fair chunk of runners between them , and can’t just be backed blind, but still, impressive nonetheless and food for thought, especially if never having any of their charges onside!!! Doh. 

Some note of caution I suppose… what with Gigginstown pulling out of the game in the next few years that may have some impact, esp for Gordon and Henry –  so we shall see how that affects things. But still, not a bad ‘way in’ for next couple of years. You could clearly do a lot worse than just focussing on their runners in the conditions above. 

*

Paul Nicholls… 

…in other news hopefully those of you who noted my Feb angle for him from previous emails have been tucking in. I should clarify that all of my stats refer to UK/Irish form and do not take account of runs abroad, which can be ignored. 

In any case he had a 6/1 double or so yesterday with his two Scottish raiders (that’s 2x doubles with his Muss qualifiers now this month), both available at 6/4 in the morning, another +3 to the pot. 

My Monthly Trainers are now on around +153 points  BFSP since the start of September in the Members’ Club and are providing plenty of light in an otherwise dark season to date. A nice return even to £2 bets. He’s got two today and we shall see how they go…

4.05 Lud – Southfield Harvest 11/8 

5.02 Donc – Flash De Touzaine 6/1

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

2 Responses

  1. Ed Walker gave a good word for
    8.00 Kempton Starfighter been backed from 9/2 to 7/2 at the moment, very honest trainer when assessing his horses and Luke Morris is in the plate alongside a good draw.

  2. Good Afternoon all, poor last night with me ignoring Assessor after pondering for ages and landing on the wrong two. Nothing grabbing me tonight, just doing a very speculative EW multiple to small stakes, Happy to share but not confident:

    7.30 Thegreatestshowman
    8.00 Albadr
    8.30 Lady Alavesa

    Have fun if you play 🙂

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