Free Daily Post: 18/02/20 (complete)

Punchestown Tip

From the members’ club…

Tips 

2.45 Punch 

#1 – MON LINO – 1 point EW – 14/1 (Lad/BV – 1/5, 5p) 12/1 (gen, 1/5, 5p) 

that’s all for this race and for main tips today, as of 08.25, write up at bottom…

 

Mon Lino – 

12s/14s looked big enough here for a proven mud lark who’s proven he stays this trip, yet aged only 8 and on ‘only’ his 8th handicap chase start, there could be more to come from him in these conditions. IF he runs his race and indeed repeats his 2nd two starts ago I struggled to see how he’d be out the top 5 here. I think he’d have won there but for slowing into the last but he picked up again and was only done very late, over 1f further than today. But he wasn’t stopping. 

He is one you want a price on as by his trainer’s own admission he can have two ways of running although since the blinkers have been fitted he’s done ok. He ran well in May at the course over 31f, bang there until 3f or so out and i’m not sure he was enjoying the livelier ground that day. He’s no hurdler these days but returned to action in November, never really sighted. He also ran over hurdles LTO when not doing much – but that was only 27 days after his big effort the time before. In any case a return to fences/this trip/ground should see him in much better light.

His handicap chase efforts have generally been solid and he hasn’t run on his ideal ground many times – his last chase start was probably the softest, over a trip, and it was his best run. Back in March 2019 he fell when coming to challenge two out and he was travelling as if he’d play a part there, in what was an ok race, certainly in the context of this. He also gets on well with ‘Slippers’ Madden. In short, he has the chase form to compete here, he should relish the ground and he stays.  His legs are also much sprightlier than plenty in here. I just hope he runs his race as he won’t be far away if he does and was well worth a go at this price.

The yard are having a bit of a renaissance with a G1 win at the start of the month. Paul Nolan has had 5 runners in this race and 3 of them have placed, so about time he had a winner. The 52 break suggests that this has been the plan since his last run and maybe even since two starts back. 

JP hasn’t had the winner of this as yet, certainly not the last 22 renewals but he’s only had 12 runners in that time with his first place in last year’s race. The fact he runs 5 here may mean something, or it may not, but i’m sure he’ll want to win it one day! 

Pace… well if he’s here to run his race he shouldn’t be worse than mid division and he should be able to hold any position his jockey pleases really. 

Of the rest…

The old boy General Principle may be the most annoying winner, not tipped. I have had beer money on at 20s – I think that’s more heart than head, having won the Irish National for us at 33s a couple of years back. However he did come a 4L 3rd in this race last year, on livelier ground and off a 10lb higher mark. However he is 11 and I am trying to avoid those aged 11+ in chases, even though the odd one pops up to annoy me – although you should try and assess on a race by race/horse by horse basis. The older brigade are 1/55,4p in this race and longer term it isn’t the age bracket to focus on. There’s a chance he has been working up to this race all season, the yard are in better form than when he last ran and he usually peaks in Feb/March – Robbie Power may also inspire a better performance. He should race up there, (may well try and lead) will relish the ground and obviously stays. He will also appreciate this more sedate pace/trip and lesser race – this is no Thyestes in terms of quality/depth as per LTO. His price has somewhat ‘crashed’ this morning and I can see why he has his backers.  I’ve gone for younger legs who have shown more recently, but if he could bounce back to whatever his best is now, that could be good enough to be in there pitching come the last, and he will keep going. But he could just be regressive now. However, I wouldn’t put you off a small interest. 

I liked Roaring Bull LTO and this is a lesser race than his last two I think – however I concluded that in what should be testing ground I had enough niggles over his stamina- but again he’s another where a big run wouldn’t shock me. He has had two hard races now though and it could be that soft is as bad as he wants it. 

Those were the three really that made my shortlist – I could leave the rest for various reasons. 

Minella Till Dawn could well win if he stays but he’s a big stamina Q and isn’t even proven over 3m as yet. As such 5s seemed short and worth taking on. But he is unexposed and arrives at the top of his game. I don’t understand why the Tony Martin horse is that short. Augusta Gold has big stamina questions but more an unknown, but yet to win beyond 2m4 1/2 F so I can leave. I thought both the Mullins horses had too many questions but it is Mullins, he’s a genius, and nothing ever shocks me too much with his – but I just can’t have them on what they have done to date. However conditions such as this can be transformative for some horses. 

I should mention Rockys Silver who does look progressive, likes winning, it fit, in form and has course form – I didn’t think 13/2 was overpriced as such in what is a much more competitive race than LTO and there’s a chance the handicapper is catching up with him. He can be ridden ‘cold’ also which I never really like in a chase and does have stamina to prove. Enough niggles for me in the context of his price but he looks sure to run his race and that may count for plenty today. I wouldn’t put anyone off him as such if they liked the price. Always subjective. 

I was struggling to make a case for any of Elliots other runners and this does have a slight ‘throw some mud and hope some sticks’ feel to it, but of course something may well stick and i’ve mentioned the two who looked most interesting to me at the prices. 

I should also mention Killer Miller who beat the selection at Fairyhouse – he was fortunate I think but in any case the wheels have come off since, they try 1st CP and the yard are quiet enough for my liking, 2/46 in the last month. TJC are only 1/30 also. Hopefully he isn’t the one JP wants to win, ahem! But of course given the selection if he’s close come race end that shouldn’t be a shock.

Finally… for some reason I fancied Space Cadet LTO at a big price in the Welsh National – he clouted the first there and never really jumped that well. Horses that PU LTO are 0/38,4p in this and that run was just a bit too poor. He’d shaped the run before in an ok handicap as if worth a go over a marathon trip though, so it will be interesting to see how well he can go if putting in a clean round. 

Right, that will do. Just the one tip EW for me this time, and fingers crossed he runs his race and has no excuse if good enough. 

Best of luck as always, 

Josh 

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

4 Responses

  1. Thanks Nige, and good afternoon to you and everybody else playing on the AW. Yes, the multiple bombed last night but from the other two tips we managed to get the odds on fav beaten and just the Greatrex outsider spoiling the forecast too so not all bad.

    Southwell is poor tonight but just for fun I’m going with some chancy alternatives to some warm favourites. I may well cover my stakes with the favs but we all enjoy different tactics when punting so each to their own.

    5.30 Obviously Luscifer has an excellent chance here but at the prices Class Clown (named after the GBster I’m thinking) has a squeak. He is still pretty unexposed and won over course and distance in December despite showing his lack of experience. If he is ready to rumble tonight then 8/1 currently with B365 looks ok.

    7.00 Astrojakk is a worthy fav and I will deffo be saving on him but chancing Moonraker too. He is a course specialist coming back after a break and Mr Appleby has the measure of both Astrojakk and the second fav Saaheq (raced against the former, used to train the latter) and has booked super Ben C, must surely be trying tonight?

    8.00 Accessor is tempting but after a lot of thought I’m going with two others, Social City and Say Nothing.
    I might have oeufs sur mon visage at the end of this but I think Pumblechook is a false fav despite the trainer and jock’s excellent record. Social City has the profile of an improving young stayer, while Say Nothing is unexposed over this trip and has a nice 7lb claimer on.

    So we wait for Chef GB’s buns to come out of the oven and away we go. Good luck whatever you back tonight.

    1. NOWT FROM MOI SAUSAGE …… TOO MANY BUNS IN DA OVEN TONIGHT 🙁
      GOOD LUCK ALL
      Lord gb 🙂
      in mc we all trust !!
      keep up the unbelevable work mc 😉

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