Members Daily Post: 19/02/20 (complete:09.40)

Tip x1 + write up, Section 2 (complete), test zone, other musings..

1. My Tips

2.Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.General messages/updates/new reports etc

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1. My Tips

Daily Chase Tips Main (2019: 24/165, 49p +16.8 ) Jumps Festival Tips (2018:+143; 2019: 6/99,27p, -45.8,)

Daily Chase Tips: Main (2020: 2/34,5p, -21.8)

(handicap chases, 2m7f+, C4+)

3.55 Donc – JONNIESOFA – 1 point win – 11/2 (bet365) 5/1 (gen) UP, that was over from the start, 5 chase runs he’s led or just been off the pace, and this time they hold him up cold – you just don’t win from that far back around there. Part of his attraction was his supposed run style but that’s how it’s going for me this season to date – it obv hasn’t cost him as he’s just run poorly and maybe that ground wasn’t soft enough, or you get one good go with him after a long break now and that’s it. 

 

Best of The Blog? (test: 1/16, 6p; -7.5)

None today.

 

2.Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

JUMPS

Doncaster

3.55 – My Old Gold (HcCh) w1 H1 I1 4/1 UP

 

Ludlow

3.00 –

John Constable (micro -class) 30 H3 I3 4/1 UP

Don’t Shout (m dist) w2 7/1 UP

 

 

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Please Read: All information regarding the members club and how to engage in the content, what all the red symbols mean etc. Inc contact info, research articles and much more can be found HERE>>>

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3.Micro System Test Zone

Monthly Trainers

Paul Nicholls (any odds, 8/1< best) 

4.05 Lud – Southfield Harvest  H3 I3 G3 11/8 WON 11/8 

5.02 Donc – Flash De Touzaine 6/1 UP

Sue Smith (any) 

3.55 Donc – I Just Know 11/1 UP

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Jockey Angles 2019/20 

3.55 Donc – Potters Legend (9/1< guide) G1 7/1 3rd

3.55 Donc – Minella Celebration (25/1<) 33/1 2nd 12/1 

 

4.General messages/updates/new reports etc

New Tracker Tuesday Post HERE>>>

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Irish Handicap Chases: The Big Three

There’s nothing more depressing in this game (well bar a horse not coming home) than spending a fair chunk of time on a race and your selection running their worst race to date in such conditions (chase/3m+)  I suppose that’s typical of my continued struggles but that sort of effort is just embarrassing. Betting slips were on the floor after 1/2 a mile there, well mine was. Never really going, never jumping, out the back, just woeful. Maybe that will teach me for straying from an Elliot, Mullins or De Bromhead chaser. While I’ll continue to graft away and bulldoze my way into form (one day, maybe in March which would be handy) it’s best looking back from a stats perspective to try and influence the thoughts of the future…

Firstly Mullins… some could argue the following should have been researched pre race… obviously Mullins had won the GN Trial before (2/19,10p) – (i did know that pre race) I hadn’t noted that on closer inspection, and before today… in this race… those aged 7… 2/5,5p (gulp), (now 3/6,6p), those making handicap chase debut… (2/7,6p), (now 3/8,7p) and both had yet to win a chase… those were 2/4,4p. (now 2/5,5p).  Noted, if not a tad too late. 

The horse…well it was Mullins, unexposed over fences, first go at a marathon trip in a race he’s done well – 14s – it can be that easy. Albeit on flip side she had enough questions also. Form wise… well her hurdle form was decent, she’d not done much in 3 beginners chases, but it would appear she was running for experience there and obviously needed further. Well done to Stewart for landing on her, I wasn’t that near in truth which always irritates me but the trainer/pointers as per above should allow you to take a few leaps into the dark, if liking the price. She had nothing on her back in deep ground which has helped also, and there was plenty of older dead wood in the race. I can live with leaving her but there’s always something to learn…

The jockey… a quick word on him esp for those of you who may play in Ireland a bit more…

C McNamara … he’s now 5/23, 7p in handicap chases, 3/9, 4p in C1 handicap chases Clearly useful for his claim and he can ride a light weight. 

Now, onto the main take-away from that shambles…

A case could be made that if you’re going to dip into an Irish Handicap Chase, just see if you can make a case for horses trained by 3 men (possibly with a look at those other trainers who’ve a decent race record, and I suppose Jessie H should never be underestimated) Obviously we know the horse power is concentrated in few hands in Ireland as per the stats below…

Starter Set

  • Ireland 
  • 2m6.5f or further
  • Class 1 or 2 
  • Trainers: Henry De Bromhead, Willie Mullins and Gordon Elliot
  • 2015>

When they have at least one runner in a race between them hitting that starter set above:-

  • In all non handicaps: They win 67% of races 
  • In all handicaps: They win 47% of races
  • In Handicap Chases: They win 47% of all races
  • And in Handicap Chases with 16+ runners… they win 57% of all said races. (28 wins from 49 races) 

Obviously they’ll have a fair chunk of runners between them , and can’t just be backed blind, but still, impressive nonetheless and food for thought, especially if never having any of their charges onside!!! Doh. 

Some note of caution I suppose… what with Gigginstown pulling out of the game in the next few years that may have some impact, esp for Gordon and Henry –  so we shall see how that affects things. But still, not a bad way in for next couple of years. 

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Write up

3.55 Donc – 

Jonniesofa – 

I thought he looked the most interesting in this decent vets race – he’s lightly raced which is a positive in these races and he has the best recent form to my eyes- that 6L 4th in a deep enough Rehearsal Chase is very good especially in the context of this race. He was in there pitching NTO in the Rowland Meyrick until walking through 3 out and it was game over after that. He’d have been in the mix for the places but for that. Having come back after a lengthy absence when dotting up at Ayr he may appreciate the short break, having had two hard races since. And he clearly goes well fresh. He races prominently/ enthusiastically  and is generally a sound jumper. This is quite a drop in class from his last two runs, into his first Vets chase. 

The slight niggle may be the drying ground but it should still be testing enough and no excuse for him. The form of the yard is a questions also however 50% have been ‘running to form’ according to RP cards and she’s only had 2 runners in the last month, with one place. There’s obviously been plenty of abandonments and may have been keeping a few away from deep ground. She’s had plenty run at big prices and those fancied have generally run their race.  Rose doesn’t send many here but they generally run well, 6/17,9p in Donny handicaps in the last 5 years. 

The dangers…

My Old Gold is solid but even more of a concern over the Richards yard form and her race LTO turned into a match. She needs more here and it is a deeper race but she’s generally consistent and is another lightly raced one. She looks the main danger I thought. 

Missed Approach – he’s short now and is another of those Festival Week winners for us in 2018 (the glory days, that will return) who helped towards the +92 point haul – I suspect they will try and be aggressive again but he’s clearly had problems and comes here after 438 days off. If he’s a1 and runs his race he could see these all off from the front but he’s enough niggles at 4s. I think the original plan may have been the Grand National but needed to win before the weights came out to get in – originally pencilled into a race at Exeter that was abandoned – so it could be he’s as fit as he can be, although his recent record fresh poses some questions. 

The rest have even more questions really. Potters Legend has the form to compete but he’s a bit of a boat these days and he bled from the nose LTO – I’d have concerns over him doing the same again but in any case it’s a question now for when he comes under pressure, and once they start to ‘pop’ internally, it can be hard to stop them doing so again sadly. But if he got back to the form of his Cheltenham 3rd he’d be thereabouts and the yard are in form. 

I did ponder I Just Know at a price but he just has too many questions at the moment – he was running at a time when the yard were not firing and I think he resented never getting an easy lead/being ridden to do so. I suspect Danny will try and blast off although shouldn’t get it all his own way – but he could just be gone at the game for now and you’d want to see more signs of life before diving in. Even at his best, if some of the others run their race, his form may not be good enough. But maybe he will add to the monthly trainers haul. If you follow those systematically you don’t concern yourself with form/profile analysis. 

Minella Celebration may outrun his price but again i’d want to see more than on recent starts and he may prefer even better ground , but I think it’s his first vets chase and he could go ok for a time. But he’s one of a few who just have too many questions for me. 

So, Jonnie will do, last tipped when hacking up 3 starts back and it would be welcome if he could do so again! 

Pace wise… well he races up there and it depends what some of the others do – he may take a lead off Missed Approach and I Just Know, or have too much pace for them if their jockeys are happy to track – you don’t want to be too far off the pace over this CD and I should’t have that excuse. If he’s held up/ends up near the back early I may well give up. 

Josh 

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

18 Responses

    1. Ha. I needed to look at something after my abject effort that may help moving forwards. I’ve just replied on other post. I’ll take a look at weight position. In pub watching Liverpool now so a job for tomorrow, hopefully they may bring some cheer.

  1. A couple of places over the sea testerday so i’ll i have go at one more today.
    Punchestown 4-20. All About Alfie 18-1 ew, only one in field to have won in heavy and back to just 1lb above last winning mark looks worth a go at the price.

  2. Hi Josh
    Hes No Trouble out again today in the 3-31 Ludlow hopefully will be better race than last time and he is good form at home so expecting good run

    Peter

    1. Best of luck Peter, looks like all your cash is forcing his price in!! 🙂
      Amateur riders race so I was happy to leave alone but you’ve got a decent jock onside, should go well you’d have thought, and Bailey is flying again. Enjoy

      1. thx Josh wish it was my money especially if it wins, jockey don’t know much about but as you say the Bailey horses are flying again so fingers crossed

        Peter

  3. bugger run out of time so just a couple worth a second look at Ludlow.
    3-00. Hijran
    4-40. All Is Good
    hopefully i’ll have time to post my top rated before racing starts , 2/6 winners yesterday and a place

  4. In the 2.18 Doncaster, Hendo has his last chance to qualify Igor for the EBF series here. So he will be ready to go and may be able to take advantage of the lack of a run for Danny Kirwan this past year. So 2 points win at 7/2.
    I also like Hendo’s Felony each way at 22/1 in the same race. If you forgive him being pulled up last time out his previous run was decent for an inexperienced horse. So 1 point each way.

  5. COLINS BETS
    Kempton
    5.30 Drop Kick Murphi 11/4
    7.30 Treacherous 6/4
    8.30 Agent Of Fortune 13/8

    ON THE BRIDLE
    5.10 Ludlow Supakalanistic 6/1

    VICTORY
    8.30 Kempton Agent Of Fortune 13/8

    FAVOURED
    4.15 Newcastle Merchant Of Venice 5/2
    4.40 Ludlow Oxwich Bay 2/1
    Colin

  6. MONTHLY GUEST TIPS (Feb: 2/28,6p = -2.35)

    Recommended:

    1:40 Punc – 1pt e/w Emily Moon @ 28/1 (Bet365, Betvictor, Unibet) UP
    3:15 Punc – 1pt e/w Argumental @ 12/1 (Coral, BetVictor – ¼ odds 1,2,3,4) UP

    Total staked 4pts

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    There are plenty of punters who will be happy to side with Laurina at Punchestown today on the basis that she is back over hurdles having seemingly hated chasing on both starts since beating Minella Indo on her first attempt over the larger obstacles. My view is somewhat different in that I’d agree that she has looked utterly miserable on her last two outings, but that fences are merely collateral information in her recent decline. I’m not sure what has ailed the talented mare of late other than that she was reported to have bled on her penultimate start, but he desperate flop at Sandown last time, while characterised in part by some moderate jumping, had too many other flaws to think that fences alone are the cause of her malady.

    She had plenty of time to make up ground between obstacles in the Scilly Isles, especially as the pace in that contest was a modest one, but she looked listless and dull throughout the race, with no competitive instinct obvious at any point of the race. She is far too classy to be giving up on, but unless something has come to light to explain her poor effort – and nothing has been made public – then I simply cannot treat her as if she possesses all her old ability.

    Emily Moon (1:40 Punchestown) would have no chance of beating a peak-form Laurina, but with a shadow hanging over the favourite, the ran outsider could well outrun her odds here. She was behind Black Tears at Leopardstown recently, but Jessie Harrington’s mare suffered more than most from the scrimmaging which occurred, and she appeals as being in the form of her life. She is meeting her Leopardstown conqueror on worse terms, which will see her odds remain on the big side, but she is coming to the boil, and if the market leader fails to deliver, I feel she won’t need to improve much to be competitive on balance, and she could provide a shock for her trainer, who bounced back to form with a double on the card on Tuesday.

    I’m tempted by High Sparrow in the Pertemps qualifier, and he needs a decent showing to get the rise in the weights he needs for Cheltenham. The Joseph O’Brien-trained gelding has a very consistent profile, and is better than his form figures suggest, with a couple of fifth-place finishes coming against the hugely progressive Treacysenniscorthy at Leopardstown. He wasn’t ideally placed last time, but still had several of today’s rivals behind him last time, and he’s returning to a track where he made a successful hurdles debut last season.

    That said, his stablemate Argumental (3:15 Punchestown) could be a real fly in the ointment having shown decent form in just three outings under Rules, and the former point-to-pointer had his defeat of Ciel de Neige at Limerick boosted when the runner-up filled the same spot in the Betfair Hurdle recently. Given that the latter was rated 135 by the handicapper when going close at Newbury, an opening mark of 126 for Argumental, who wears a tongue tie for the first time, looks potentially lenient. He needs to win and win well if he’s to book his passage, and the booking of Eamon Corbett gives the impression of giving his potential big-race jockey a trial of his own here.

    Regards,

    Rory

  7. Only just got back in and out again shortly so no time for anything in depth so just a ew L15 for a bit of fun.
    my “A” team for today.
    Punchestown.
    3-15. A Great View
    4-20. All About Alfie
    Ludlow.
    4-40. All Is Good
    5-10. Avantgardist

  8. Ed Walker gave a good word for
    8.00 Kempton Starfighter been backed from 9/2 to 7/2 at the moment, very honest trainer when assessing his horses and Luke Morris is in the plate alongside a good draw, plenty of positives.
    Colin.

    1. I’ve no idea, when the betting gods want to chew you up and spit you out that’s how it goes. I think he was there to run his race and they’ve tried something different, maybe to try and settle him – he’s missed plenty of racing it would be odd to be ‘prepping him’ for something esp given record fresh – maybe he does just need a bog (I know Donny dries but that didn’t look too testing and I expected it to be softer, alas) and so they didn’t feel like bothering today. But he clearly enjoys being up there and didn’t race with his usual zest, did look a bit flat for whatever reason – but that was game over straight away which is always depressing. He has the ability to sit just behind those front two, wide. That energy used to close and jump caught up with him up the straight, but he hasn’t run his race for whatever reason, tactics/going, and both may be linked.

  9. North American racing – Wednesday.

    0/25 to date!!!

    Penn – race 6, 01.16 UK, Start Cashin 7/2 Bet365; race 7 , 1.43 UK, Tiz Promising 15/2 Bet365, race 8, 2.10 UK, Martinkelly 14/1 Bet365.

    Turf – race 9, 11.25 UK, Buymeabond 9/2 Ladbrokes.

    Mahoning – race 7, 8.33 UK, Alex The Dude, 8/1Betfair.

    Tampa – race 9, 9.30 UK, Drill Down 50/1 Bet365 + Sterling Judge 50/1 Bet365.

    Sam Houston – race 5, 8.14 UK, Wilts Gold, 66/1 Betfair; race 9, 10.09 UK, Lynna Rink 16/1 Bet365.

    The old enigna decoder spewed out a lot for this evening.

    Good luck.

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