Members Daily Post: 18/02/20 (complete)

Tip x1 + write up, Section 2 (complete), test zone, Punch pointers

1. My Tips

2.Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.General messages/updates/new reports etc

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1. My Tips

Daily Chase Tips Main (2019: 24/165, 49p +16.8 ) Jumps Festival Tips (2018:+143; 2019: 6/99,27p, -45.8,)

Daily Chase Tips: Main (2020: 2/33,5p, -20.8)

(handicap chases, 2m7f+, C4+)

2.45 Punch 

#1 – MON LINO – 1 point EW – 14/1 (Lad/BV – 1/5, 5p) 12/1 (gen, 1/5, 5p) UP, a depressing watch, that was over after 1/2 a mile. Never went a yard really and ran as if he’d never seen a fence. 

 

Best of The Blog? (test: 1/16, 6p; -7.5)

None.

 

2.Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

JUMPS

Musselburgh

3.00 –

Titus Bolt (HcH) H1 I3 7/1 UP

Whispering Waters (HcH) 40/1 UP

3.35 – Monsieur Co (HcCh) H3 I1 G1 10/3 S4 UP

4.05 – For Three (HcH) w2 I3 G3 12/1 S1 UP

4.35 – Shanroe Street (micro TJC) 12/1 UR

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TTP Chase Micros 2019/20

2.30 Muss – First Account (any) I3 G3 13/8 WON 13/8>6/5 

3.35 Muss – Monsieur Co (any) H3 I3 G1 10/3 UP

 

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Please Read: All information regarding the members club and how to engage in the content, what all the red symbols mean etc. Inc contact info, research articles and much more can be found HERE>>>

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3.Micro System Test Zone

Monthly Trainers 

(2019: +17.56 BFSP; 2020, +55 SP, +133 BFSP) 

Paul Nicholls (any odds, 8/1< best)

3.00 Muss – Nineohtwooneoh G3 6/4 WON 6/4>Evens 

4.05 Muss – Christopher Wood H3 I3 6/4 WON 6/4>10/11 

 

Chase Angles 2019/20

Trainers

2.30 Muss – First Account (11/1<) I3 G3 7/4 WON 6/5 

3.35 Muss – Monsieur Co (11/1<) H3 I3 G1 10/3 UP

4.35 Muss – Pinch of Ginger (14/1<) H3 I3 9/2 UP

LTO Winners Starting Points (12/1<)

4.35 Muss – Dr Hooves H1 I3 4/1 UP

 

 

4.General messages/updates/new reports etc

 

New Micro Monday Post HERE>>> 

(pointers for the ‘big four’ at Festival now complete)

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Monthly trainers…

Just to repeat again that if you want a fun systematic approach to follow (start small/stay there/or build up over time) these are looking solid enough, and the first winter jumps season i’ve done them consistently. I’ll get digging for March in next week’s Micro Monday post but trying to combine some solid trainer numbers/research with an assessment of whether their string may be ‘in form’ could be the way forward – no surprise Sue Smith/Paul Nicholl’s angles have ticked along as they were ‘in form’ when the qualifiers started appearing. I think the results so far show the value of such an approach and obviously it’s no surprise some trainers target/do well at certain times of the year. That will be for a variety of reasons. There will be losing months/trainers but with any luck they can tick along through the year as below, and something for me to look at on the Flat also.  All research can be found in the Micro Monday posts as always (tab to the top left when logged in on desktop/tablet)…

Anyway… for 2020 so far… Lucinda Russell (Jan, -2 BFSP), Sue Smith (Jan/Feb, +22.29 BFS), Paul Nicholls (Feb, +113 BFSP)…

2020: 56 bets / 17 wins / 27p / 30% sr / +55 SP / +133 BFSP

2019 (Set-Dec): 130 bets / 31 wins / 74p / 24% sr / +17.56 BFSP

Total: 186 bets / 48 wins / 101p (inc wins) / 26% sr / +150.56 BFSP

Obviously there was a monster in there, 110/1 BFSP from Nicholls but even without that winner it’s still +40 or so, averaging +7 points or so a month, and i’d take that forever more with an approach like this. There’s plenty of comfort from the number of placed horses also. No doubt i’ve put the mockers on the next few weeks now.

I know some of you have been backing them systematically, some dipping in and many ignoring completely – but as always it’s info/research to use as you please and an attempt to draw your eyes to an aspect of the stats research that’s been working well, to date.

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2.45 Punchestown –  Grand National Trial 

Trainers (who’ve won race/with runners)

  • All of Gordon Elliots (x7!)
  • Stones And Roses / Ifyoucatchmenow
  • The Gatechecker
  • Killer Miller
  • Spider Web

Stats/Trends

I’ve looked at some sort of ‘winning profile’ but it isn’t that useful I don’t think – it ‘removes’ 7 (and no doubt one of them will now win) but those who do not hit my profile…

Spider Web / Agusta Gold / The Gatechecker/ Forever Gold/ Rockys Silver/ Call The Taxie / Space Cadet 

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2.45 Punchestown

Mon Lino – 

12s/14s looked big enough here for a proven mud lark who’s proven he stays this trip, yet aged only 8 and on ‘only’ his 8th handicap chase start, there could be more to come from him in these conditions. IF he runs his race and indeed repeats his 2nd two starts ago I struggled to see how he’d be out the top 5 here. I think he’d have won there but for slowing into the last but he picked up again and was only done very late, over 1f further than today. But he wasn’t stopping. 

He is one you want a price on as by his trainer’s own admission he can have two ways of running although since the blinkers have been fitted he’s done ok. He ran well in May at the course over 31f, bang there until 3f or so out and i’m not sure he was enjoying the livelier ground that day. He’s no hurdler these days but returned to action in November, never really sighted. He also ran over hurdles LTO when not doing much – but that was only 27 days after his big effort the time before. In any case a return to fences/this trip/ground should see him in much better light.

His handicap chase efforts have generally been solid and he hasn’t run on his ideal ground many times – his last chase start was probably the softest, over a trip, and it was his best run. Back in March 2019 he fell when coming to challenge two out and he was travelling as if he’d play a part there, in what was an ok race, certainly in the context of this. He also gets on well with ‘Slippers’ Madden. In short, he has the chase form to compete here, he should relish the ground and he stays.  His legs are also much sprightlier than plenty in here. I just hope he runs his race as he won’t be far away if he does and was well worth a go at this price.

The yard are having a bit of a renaissance with a G1 win at the start of the month. Paul Nolan has had 5 runners in this race and 3 of them have placed, so about time he had a winner. The 52 break suggests that this has been the plan since his last run and maybe even since two starts back. 

JP hasn’t had the winner of this as yet, certainly not the last 22 renewals but he’s only had 12 runners in that time with his first place in last year’s race. The fact he runs 5 here may mean something, or it may not, but i’m sure he’ll want to win it one day! 

Pace… well if he’s here to run his race he shouldn’t be worse than mid division and he should be able to hold any position his jockey pleases really. 

Of the rest…

The old boy General Principle may be the most annoying winner, not tipped. I have had beer money on at 20s – I think that’s more heart than head, having won the Irish National for us at 33s a couple of years back. However he did come a 4L 3rd in this race last year, on livelier ground and off a 10lb higher mark. However he is 11 and I am trying to avoid those aged 11+ in chases, even though the odd one pops up to annoy me – although you should try and assess on a race by race/horse by horse basis. The older brigade are 1/55,4p in this race and longer term it isn’t the age bracket to focus on. There’s a chance he has been working up to this race all season, the yard are in better form than when he last ran and he usually peaks in Feb/March – Robbie Power may also inspire a better performance. He should race up there, (may well try and lead) will relish the ground and obviously stays. He will also appreciate this more sedate pace/trip and lesser race – this is no Thyestes in terms of quality/depth as per LTO. His price has somewhat ‘crashed’ this morning and I can see why he has his backers.  I’ve gone for younger legs who have shown more recently, but if he could bounce back to whatever his best is now, that could be good enough to be in there pitching come the last, and he will keep going. But he could just be regressive now. However, I wouldn’t put you off a small interest. 

I liked Roaring Bull LTO and this is a lesser race than his last two I think – however I concluded that in what should be testing ground I had enough niggles over his stamina- but again he’s another where a big run wouldn’t shock me. He has had two hard races now though and it could be that soft is as bad as he wants it. 

Those were the three really that made my shortlist – I could leave the rest for various reasons. 

Minella Till Dawn could well win if he stays but he’s a big stamina Q and isn’t even proven over 3m as yet. As such 5s seemed short and worth taking on. But he is unexposed and arrives at the top of his game. I don’t understand why the Tony Martin horse is that short. Augusta Gold has big stamina questions but more an unknown, but yet to win beyond 2m4 1/2 F so I can leave. I thought both the Mullins horses had too many questions but it is Mullins, he’s a genius, and nothing ever shocks me too much with his – but I just can’t have them on what they have done to date. However conditions such as this can be transformative for some horses. 

I should mention Rockys Silver who does look progressive, likes winning, it fit, in form and has course form – I didn’t think 13/2 was overpriced as such in what is a much more competitive race than LTO and there’s a chance the handicapper is catching up with him. He can be ridden ‘cold’ also which I never really like in a chase and does have stamina to prove. Enough niggles for me in the context of his price but he looks sure to run his race and that may count for plenty today. I wouldn’t put anyone off him as such if they liked the price. Always subjective. 

I was struggling to make a case for any of Elliots other runners and this does have a slight ‘throw some mud and hope some sticks’ feel to it, but of course something may well stick and i’ve mentioned the two who looked most interesting to me at the prices. 

I should also mention Killer Miller who beat the selection at Fairyhouse – he was fortunate I think but in any case the wheels have come off since, they try 1st CP and the yard are quiet enough for my liking, 2/46 in the last month. TJC are only 1/30 also. Hopefully he isn’t the one JP wants to win, ahem! But of course given the selection if he’s close come race end that shouldn’t be a shock.

Finally… for some reason I fancied Space Cadet LTO at a big price in the Welsh National – he clouted the first there and never really jumped that well. Horses that PU LTO are 0/38,4p in this and that run was just a bit too poor. He’d shaped the run before in an ok handicap as if worth a go over a marathon trip though, so it will be interesting to see how well he can go if putting in a clean round. 

Right, that will do. Just the one tip EW for me this time, and fingers crossed he runs his race and has no excuse if good enough. 

Best of luck as always, 

Josh 

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

15 Responses

  1. Guest Tipster… just to say there haven’t been any tips/emails/posts in their members area the last two days. Emails usually come in by 12.30 at the very latest so we shall see if anything on Tuesday.

  2. COLINS BETS
    5.30 Southwell Luscifer

    VICTORY
    5.30 Southwell Luscifer

    ON THE BRIDLE
    4.35 Musselburgh Dr Hooves
    5.30 Southwell Dark Phoenix
    7.00 Southwell Saaheq
    Colin

  3. couple of oldies for me today over at Punchestown.
    1-45. Ballyboker Bridge, all 3 career wins have come here and is 3lb better off with Yanworth for 3 3/4l defeat back in November a small ew at around 10-1.
    2-45. General Principle has been running poorly recently but is now starting to look well handicapped and with nothing else in the race of any interest i’ll have a small punt at 25-1+.

    of the rest i think Spancil Hill could run a decent race in the 4-50 and for no logical reason whatsoever i like Well Set Up in the 3-20,

    At Musselburgh there’s not much i really like but these came top of my ratings and i hope to have a closer look later time permitting.
    2-00. Glorious Lady
    2-30. I’m Too Generous
    3-00. Titus Bolt
    3-35. Ardera Cross !!!!
    4-05. Dear Sire
    4-35. Shanroe Street/Dr Hooves

      1. Your Irish eyes working wonders again! Well done, thrilling finish. Less said about mine the better sadly, never at the races.

    1. I do apologise for not putting write ups out. I have had a lot on this year and my reasoning with these was as Josh said thought that Rockys Silver would bowl along, just off the pace with the Mullins horses in tow, was right that

      1. Was right with that, but, got it wrong with the lead horse, who was the other one i had Augusta Gold. It`s hard to get these write ups done, so, bear with me peeps, doubt if anyone even looks at my selections these days, having such a bad run of form…that is a nice little earner today though. Josh can you do me a favour and have a look, (only if you can), what are the stats with the big 3 and the bottom 4-5 weights in the big handicaps? I have looked at them and I think there is a pattern forming, it seems to be that Mr Mullins is a dab hand at doing it in these big handicaps and I`m sure the stats will bear out that the other top trainers, messers Elliott and De Bromhead and to lesser extent O`Brien and Meade, do throw some horses that are well out of form in these races and collect the prize….Would be interesting to see some stats if like i say there is a filter that can be done? Maybe tie that in with the younger horse in the race???

        1. No probs. There’s plenty of stats pondering in tomorrows post but I’ll try and look at weights etc.
          In fairness on her hurdle form she was entitled to have a fair bit in hand when it clicked over fences.
          You make your own luck in this game… A result of two jockeys there, yours got a ban for whip etc but needed to and that all evens out. Ruby thought Danny threw that away on winner, went too soon, should have gone to far side. Incredible that can be such fine margins at end of a slog. I had stamina doubts on the pair, so poor are my eyes at moment haha. But unknowns and both relished it. Well done again.
          You’re better at going with the trainers than I am in those Irish races. But suspect you could be right about bottom end of handicap and Mullins mention that in his pre race quote on RP. Safe to assume that anything in his yard rated 119 should have more in hand one day!

  4. MONTHLY GUEST TIPS (Feb: 2/23,4p = +3.4)

    Recommended:

    2:15 Punc – 1pt e/w @ Early Doors @ 5/1 (general)
    2:45 Punc – 1pt win Rocky’s Silver @ 7/1 (general)
    4:50 Punc – 1pt win Ask Mary @ 9/2 (Bet365, Hills, BetVictor)

    Total staked 4pts

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    One of the great things about a fixture list which isn’t crammed to bursting is that decent fixtures lost to the weather are able to be rescheduled without a huge song and dance, and – weather permitting – Punchestown’s meeting featuring the Grand National Trial Chase, is given a third chance today.

    When initially looking at this meeting, I was very surprised to see Goulane Jessie shorter in the betting in places than Ask Mary (4:50 Punchestown – Nap) in the David Trundley Artist at Punchestown Handicap Hurdle given that the Dick Lalor-trained mare beat Seamus Spillane’s daughter of Well Chosen by 56 lengths at Navan three weeks ago. That came over fences, but it shows that the prolific winning pointer is well treated over obstacles, and Ask Mary really ought to have won that day. Jumping well on the whole, she looked in total control at the last, but her stride stuttered after she landed awkwardly, and despite looking the winner even with 50 yards left, she was run out of it late in the day by Ask And Answered. That form was upheld when the winner was beaten narrowly at Fairyhouse a week later, although Ask Mary unseated early in that contest.

    Ask Mary is a whopping 12lb lower over hurdles than her chase rating, and while Goulane Jessie has not been declared this time, Ask Mary is priced at the same odds as Ask Cory, who was five lengths behind her on the similar terms at Navan.

    The betting would suggest that Zero Ten has outstanding claims in the Entertain Your Guests At Punchestown Rated Novice Chase, but with the ground now heavy, this will not be such an easy task as it looked when he was originally declared, and while it would be wrong to suggest that the son of Shantou won’t handle the testing ground, having won twice on soft, he was pulled up on the only occasion he has faced ground with heavy in the description (on point-to-point debut) and his smart chase form has come on ground no worse than yielding.

    On the other hand, while the ground wasn’t too deep when Early Doors (2:15 Punchestown) won the Martin Pipe at the Cheltenham Festival, the son of Soldier of Fortune has won both his starts on heavy ground, and he has an excellent chance of providing a minor shock given the prevailing conditions.

    The Grand National Trial at 4:00 will be a thorough test in the conditions, and while Rocky’s Silver (2:45 Punchestown) is unproven over this sort of trip, he’s shown himself to be better at three miles than shorter, and has won both starts in handicap chases at this track, both in heavy ground, with the latest over the longest trip he’s faced to date in an amateur riders’ handicap last month. He stayed on best after the race developed into a match with Final List, and it’s encouraging that the selection immediately pricked his ears when seeing off that rival after the last, suggesting he wasn’t close to the bottom of his stamina in scoring. He’s well weighted for a test like this after a 7lb rise, and will take some beating if avoiding trouble.

    Regards,

    Rory

  5. The Nicholls micro keeps on rolling, 2/2 today.

    Both were readily available at 6/4. Little fish are sweet.

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