Members Daily Post: 17/02/20 (complete)

Section 2 (complete) , Monthly trainers update

1. My Tips

2.Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.General messages/updates/new reports etc

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1. My Tips

Daily Chase Tips Main (2019: 24/165, 49p +16.8 ) Jumps Festival Tips (2018:+143; 2019: 6/99,27p, -45.8,)

Daily Chase Tips: Main (2020: 2/31,5p, -18.8)

(handicap chases, 2m7f+, C4+)

None.

 

Best of The Blog? (test: 1/16, 6p; -7.5)

None, nothing below jumping out at me at the prices in what is generally low grade stuff on very testing ground. A couple of meetings abandoned tomorrow but Musselburgh should be fine and I may well dip into Punchy and the GN trial if I can find anything. 

 

2.Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

JUMPS

Carlisle

3.25 – Trimmers Lane (micro runs) 28/1  UP

3.55 – Serious Ego (all Hc’s,m +class) G3 5/2 UP

4.30 – Condarcia (all Hc’s,m +class) G3 6/1 UP

 

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3.Micro System Test Zone

None.

 

4.General messages/updates/new reports etc

 

Monthly trainers…

Just to repeat again that if you want a fun systematic approach to follow (start small/stay there/or build up over time) these are looking solid enough, and the first winter jumps season i’ve done them consistently. I’ll get digging for March in next week’s Micro Monday post but trying to combine some solid trainer numbers/research with an assessment of whether their string may be ‘in form’ could be the way forward – no surprise Sue Smith/Paul Nicholl’s angles have ticked along as they were ‘in form’ when the qualifiers started appearing. I think the results so far show the value of such an approach and obviously it’s no surprise some trainers target/do well at certain times of the year. That will be for a variety of reasons. There will be losing months/trainers but with any luck they can tick along through the year as below, and something for me to look at on the Flat also.  All research can be found in the Micro Monday posts as always (tab to the top left when logged in on desktop/tablet)…

Anyway… for 2020 so far… Lucinda Russell (Jan, -2 BFSP), Sue Smith (Jan/Feb, +22.29 BFS), Paul Nicholls (Feb, +113 BFSP)…

2020: 56 bets / 17 wins / 27p / 30% sr / +55 SP / +133 BFSP

2019 (Set-Dec): 130 bets / 31 wins / 74p / 24% sr / +17.56 BFSP

Total: 186 bets / 48 wins / 101p (inc wins) / 26% sr / +150.56 BFSP

Obviously there was a monster in there, 110/1 BFSP from Nicholls but even without that winner it’s still +40 or so, averaging +7 points or so a month, and i’d take that forever more with an approach like this. There’s plenty of comfort from the number of placed horses also. No doubt i’ve put the mockers on the next few weeks now.

I know some of you have been backing them systematically, some dipping in and many ignoring completely – but as always it’s info/research to use as you please and an attempt to draw your eyes to an aspect of the stats research that’s been working well, to date.

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

2 Responses

  1. COLINS BETS
    5.30 Kempton Kyllachy Dragon
    7.00 Kempton Gold Brocade

    ON THE BRIDLE
    8.00 Kempton Agent Of Fortune

    FAVOURED
    8.00 Kempton Prompting
    8.30 Kempton Embers Glow

    VICTORY
    No bet
    All prices will be via Sportsworld who will price up for me around 10am.
    Colin

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