Members Daily Post: 15/02/20 (complete)

1. My Tips

2.Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.General messages/updates/new reports etc

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1. My Tips

Daily Chase Tips Main (2019: 24/165, 49p +16.8 ) Jumps Festival Tips (2018:+143; 2019: 6/99,27p, -45.8,)

Daily Chase Tips: Main (2020: 2/31,5p, -18.8)

(handicap chases, 2m7f+, C4+)

3.15 Haydock – GERONIMO – 1 point win – 9/1 (gen) UP 6/1, jumping went to pot but like all bar two in that , didn’t run his race sadly and a shock result, which can happen in that ground. Lord D unlucky really, didn’t do much wrong. Not a great afternoon to watch, thankfully Cyrname got up but a few didn’t, including Kachy,a star of the all weather. 

that’s all for today, as of 08.55. Write up at bottom of post…

 

 

Best of The Blog? (test: 1/16, 6p; -7.5)

None.

 

2.Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

 

JUMPS

Ascot

2.25 – Captain Drake (all Hc’s) 14 w1 6/1 

3.00 –

Jolly’s Cracked It (all Hc’s) 14 10/1 

Malaya (HcH,micro class and runs) 14,30ES+ 10/1 S3A

Air Horse One (all Hc’s) 14 12/1

Eden Du Houx (HcH) w1 9/2 

4.10 –

Taj Balahandabad (HcH) 18/1 S2A

Easyrun De Vassy (HcH,m class and runs) 14,30 8/1 

 

Wincanton – Abandoned 

 

Haydock……None

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Please Read: All information regarding the members club and how to engage in the content, what all the red symbols mean etc. Inc contact info, research articles and much more can be found HERE>>>

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3.Micro System Test Zone

February Trainers

Sue Smith (any odds) 

3.15 Hayd – Vintage Clouds H1 8/1 UP

3.50 Hayd – Silver Eclipse H3 G1 7/1 2nd 

Paul Nicholls (any odds, 8/1< best) 

2.40 Hayd – Sir Psycho H3 I1 G1 11/8 WON 

5.00 Hayd – Alcala H3 G3 2/1 WON 4/1

 

Chase Angles 2019/20 

Trainers

2.25 Ascot – Valtor (10/1<) I3 G1 4/1 2nd 

 

Jockey Angles 2019/20 

2.25 Ascot – Captain Drake (17/2< guide) 6/1 UP

 

Chase Eye-Catchers 2019/20 

3.29 Gowran – Spyglass Hill (2nd run) H3 7/4 WON 7/4>5/2 

 

4.General messages/updates/new reports etc

Big Race Trends Pointers (from Trends Thursday post) 

Haydock 

3.15 Grand National Trial 

Stats/Trends 

The 2x 15/15 stats (exc odds) don’t help too much but leave…

Lord Du Mesnil / The Two Amigos / Steely Addition/ Geronimo / Balyoptic / Pobbles Bay 

Winning at least one of last three and placing on last start is a positive..

Lord D M and Geronimo hit both of those. 

Trainers (to have won race/with runner) 

  • Yala Enki 
  • Elegant Escape
  • Vintage Clouds 
  • One For Arthur
  • Ballyoptic 

 

3.50 – Pertemps 

Trainers (to have won race/with runners) 

  • Kilbricken Storm 
  •  Silver Eclipse 
  • Sykes 
  • Guitar Pete 

 

Ascot 

2.25 

Trainers (to have won race/with runners) 

  • Regal Encore / Jepeck 

3.00 

Stats/Trends

They’re not too helpful here although having won over at least 18f appears to be a good pointer (although placed stats not too bad… 0/58, 12p) and those who have yet to win over this far are… Prudhomme / Nordano / Jollys Cracked It/ Malaya/ Distingo 

Trainers (to have won race/with runners) 

  • The Con Man 
  • Eden Du Houx 
  • Jollys Cracked It / Air Horse One 
  • Malaya 

 

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3.15 Haydock

Geronimo – just the one to go to war with today and I thought he looked the over priced one in this. He hits my stats/trends pointers and still has some upside potential over marathon trips. He’s lightly raced for his age. There’s a chance this has been the plan. LTO he made the odd error and was visibly outpaced at times but plugged on. Hopefully this trip brings out further improvement in him and he takes another step forward. He’s got nothing on his back which could help in these conditions. I don’t think Ryan Mania can do 10-00 hence the jockey booking, but Sean Q knows what he’s doing in these staying chases and with any luck will track the pace. 9s seemed a few points to big to my eyes.

Of the rest…

I’ll probably never get Lord Du Mesnil right again having backed him at Stratford in an agonising defeat at big odds and haven’t had a penny on him since, such has been my lack of judgement in recent times. It’s hard to know when his improvement will end but he is up 10lb and into his deepest chase yet I think. I’m not sure he will get an easy lead this time either but he is solid. 11/2 felt about right I thought but he should run his race in conditions he thrives in,

I was against the rest for one reason or another at the prices, but it should be a decent race. I suspect anything battling this out may well leave their season here mind, as it could be very hard work – provided it goes ahead of course. Anything could happen today.

Pace – you’d expect Lord D to be up there, along with Yala Enki and Vintage Clouds. The selection should be able to track all three and be in the perfect spot on the turn for home. He will stay, just whether he’s good enough – 9s was worth chancing to find out for me.

 

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Elsewhere – I had a look at the 3 miler at Ascot – again whether this goes ahead if the wind picks up, who knows –

Again, nothing really jumped out at me at the odds – I tipped Red Indian LTO at twice this price where he was a tad too fresh and ran as if needing it. He does have handicap chases in him but is half the price today and does have stamina to prove still. But he could settle well near the front end and pop away. Were he a bigger price I may have been tempted but i’ll leave him today and hope I don’t regret it.

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So fingers crossed the remaining meetings survive and Geronimo can slog it out to victory.

About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

19 Comments

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  • Unsure as to what goes ahead to day but Hendo has two runners that would have to win to go to Cheltenham:

    1.50 Ascot, Pym. 3/1.
    1.30 Haydock, Caribean Boy. 13/2.

    Both 2 points win.

    Martin Colwell 15/02/20 9:06 AM Reply


    • Surely given he won well over 26f at Cheltenham last time Pym is one of the horses least effected by what he does today. He wins and he goes to RSA. He doesn’t and he goes to the Ultima.

      NickM 15/02/20 1:01 PM Reply


      • Pym will not be going anywhere near Cheltenham jumping like that. If he does and you back him, goodbye to your money.

        Martin Colwell 15/02/20 5:09 PM Reply


        • Nicky Henderson’s words today regarding Pym
          ” He wouldn’t want the ground to testing ”
          How anyone could back Pym today with that negative, Cheltenham if the ground is decent could well see a different horse, Henderson wanted the run today otherwise sure he would have withdrawn the horse in those conditions.

          cleafe 15/02/20 5:19 PM Reply


    • Great call there Martin, good luck with Pym too

      Chris Albin 15/02/20 2:03 PM Reply


  • I started to have a quick look last night at today but quickly gave up as didn’t want to waste time if everything was called off
    Earlier on in the week I thought Lord du Mensil was the bet in the Grand National trial. Odds went soon after tho when came into 5’s
    With a bit of a drift now I might back, seems to be really strong at the trip, young enough to possibly be improving??
    I remember Yala Enki winning this a few years ago but that was a really desperate race so slow and just fell to bits. Think the younger horse getting weight should still be there, can’t see Vintage clouds reversing form at high mark after last win

    Ryan Mercer 15/02/20 9:39 AM Reply


    • Writing it out now and few other points to add
      Elegant escape is a bit of a puzzler. Really thought was just shy of top level this but do think has disappointed a bit this season.
      May be being a bit harsh on Yala Enki as watched the last race back and was travelling really strong in bad ground, but is 10yrs old now
      LDM doesn’t look to of struggled with hard races and like the fact he’s had a bit more of a break than some of the others
      Think trip to short for One for Arthur.
      Two Amigos a bit interesting, only 1 run here and fell

      Ryan Mercer 15/02/20 10:47 AM Reply


  • ON THE BRIDLE
    6.30 Newcastle Tathmeen 5/1

    FAVOURED
    1.25 Lingfield He’s Our Star 14/1
    1.30 Haydocg Rough Night 5/1
    4.10 Ascot Normandy Soldier 8/1
    4.55 Newcastle Lopes Dancer 4/1
    COLINS BET
    No bet
    Victory
    No bet
    Good start well backed winner 5/2 into 15/8
    Colin

    cleafe 15/02/20 10:18 AM Reply


  • Hi Josh – “Harry’s Historical Fact of the week”. The Ascot Chase
    The Ascot Chase is a Grade 1 National Hunt steeplechase which is open to horses aged five years or older. It is run at Ascot over a distance of about 2 miles and 5 furlongs and during its running there are seventeen fences to be jumped. The race is scheduled to take place each year in February.
    First staged in 1995 won by Martha’s Son, the Grade 1 Betfair Ascot Chase is now firmly established as one of the premier middle-distance chases of the Jumps season. Some great horses have lifted the prestigious prize since its inception, often on the back of Boxing Day glory at Kempton or en route to stardom the Cheltenham and Aintree Festivals later in the season.
    Previous winners have also found regular Grade 1 success at Cheltenham in, amongst others, the Arkle Trophy, Gold Cup, Ryanair Chase and Champion Chase. Many have also tasted glory at Aintree in the Grade 1 Aintree Bowl, Melling Chase and Maghull Chase, while the King George VI Chase at Kempton has been lifted an amazing 11 times by former winners of this week
    So what of some of the names that grace that illustrious honours board? The incomparable Kauto Star (2008), a household name, is ranked as one of the greatest and most popular chasers of modern times; Cue Card (2013) is a King George, Ryanair, Aintree Bowl and Champion Bumper winner; his old rival Silviniaco Conti (2016) has won two King Georges and two Aintree Bowls; and one of the race’s great early winners, One Man (1998), has a pair of King Georges, a Hennessy Gold Cup and a Queen Mother Champion Chase on his own glittering CV.
    Barry Geraghty is the winning most jockey with 3 and Martin Pipe the top trainer with 4
    A star studded race but not blessed with good fields, so this weeks race is from 2003 (7 runners) – 4 horses have won the race twice Monet’s Garden, Riverside Theatre and Cue Card, the other horse is featured in this renewal. Enjoy!!
    Statto (Fantasy Football League – if anyone remembers that?) doing the betting – anybody know what happened to him?

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qVe_aftVaW8&list=PLfn5x2SD03q7xrlV8LUoyRyaDrGWD40jZ&index=10&t=0s

    harrys 15/02/20 10:39 AM Reply


    • great stuff as always Harry – some names mentioned in that little lot!! True greats.

      Josh 15/02/20 12:40 PM Reply


  • AW T/T

    2.35 L Kachy…T Dascombe Hcp…1/1
    3.10 L Reflecktor…T Dascombe Hcp…9/4
    3.45 L Smile a mile…M Johnston T/J…10/1
    5.30 N The Bull…B Haslam Hcp…13/8
    6.00 N Lorton …J Camacho Dist…12/1
    8.00 N Requinta Dawn…R Fahey T/J…10/1
    Calis Lad…B Haslam Hcp…9/1

    Mike

    michael Dennis 15/02/20 11:24 AM Reply


  • MONTHLY GUEST TIPS (Feb: 2/23,4p = +3.4)

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    No Bets – Power cut here, and threat of high winds

    Ascot :

    13:50 Sodexo Reynoldstown Novices’ Chase (Grade 2) (1) 2m 7f 180y

    On the figures, the Reynoldstown is a very competitive race, but I rate the form of the Altcar Novices’ Chase won by Sam Brown highly, and I think he can shrug off his penalty for that Grade 2 success. Sam Brown was absolutely top class as a bumper horse, beating Lalor on his debut at Wincanton and then given weight and a thrashing to the likes of Chef des Obeaux and Talkischeap at Newbury. His only disappointment to date came on his hurdles debut on good ground, and it seems that he needs soft ground to show his form.

    He was off for some time before making his chase debut last month, but was deeply impressive when winning at Lingfield over three miles. Turned out quickly in a Grade 2 at Haydock last time, he could have been forgiven for recoiling a little from his comeback run, but instead he progressed again, winning despite the trip by 15 lengths from Knight In Dubai after the beaten Windsor Avenue had fallen at the last. He will appreciate the return to this trip, and the form of that race looks very good, a timefigure suggesting the ground was either not as soft as the official description, or the winner is very much out of the ordinary, and possibly both.

    14:25 Keltbray Swinley Chase (Limited Handicap) (Listed) (1) 2m 7f 180y

    Two of these interest me, and while I’m keen to give Red Indian another chance after he failed to stay in the Peter Marsh last time, I still wonder whether this trip on heavy ground and with the wind exacerbating the test will be a bit too much for him as well. Kelly Morgan’s charge is clearly well treated based on how he travelled last time, but his best form has come when facing a slightly lesser test of stamina, and he is a horse who would be right at the top of my list for the Topham Chase at Aintree in April. I have an inkling that connections may go there with him, and I have mixed feelings about him here as a result.

    With that in mind, and having tipped him here last time, I have to row in again with Domaine de Lisle, who has gone up 6lb for winning over 2m5f here last time, but is getting better with every start for Sean Curran, and is already proven at the trip. He took every yard of the trip to get on top of Benny’s King last time, and I can only see the return to the extended Two mile seven trip helping him here.

    3:00 Give the Gift of Ascot Annual Membership Handicap Hurdle 2m 3f 58y

    Again I find myself interested in two horses for different reasons. The Triumph Hurdle is currently a difficult race to unravel, but one horse who has form behind both of the big British-trained fancies is Nordano, and his ability to be competitive in a handicap against older rivals will help get an insight on the strength of the horses who have beaten him. He’s on a fair mark on paper, so I’ll be watching him closely. Another who is on a fair mark is Prudhomme, and the Nick Williams runner is having his second start after a breathing operation.

    A useful sort in bumpers, he’s from a yard whose young horses tend to progress well, and whose stable is in fine form. Williams has had a handful of runners on the last few weekends, but has scored televised wins with both Sir Galahad at Cheltenham, and One For The Team at Newbury. Add to that places for the exposed pair Agrapart and Le Rocher at Sandown a fortnight ago, and it’s clear the man they dub the Genius of George Nympton is very much on top of things.

    Prudhomme shaped very well for a long way in a competitive handicap at Taunton last time, and the addition of a tongue tie should help now. It’s possible that his wind op has not worked sufficiently well, but horses are always best judged on their second outing after a procedure, while the tongue tie is another possible catalyst for improvement.

    3:35 Betfair Ascot Chase (Grade 1) 2m 5f 8y

    No bet in the Ascot Chase, but it will be a disappointment if Cyrname cannot bounce back from his defeat in the King George. Some have pointed out that he would have run below par even before stamina was fully tested at Kempton, but I prefer to think that the tactics of trying to hold on to him in the first half of the race are simply anathema to him, and that’s why he didn’t spark. Riders On the Storm is progressive since joining Nigel Twiston-Davies, but while he was impressive last time, he will find a back-to-form Cyrname an entirely different kettle of fish to On The Blind Side.

    Haydock :

    2:05 Unibet Rendlesham Hurdle (Grade 2) 3m 58y

    There are reasons to be against the market leaders here, and while small stakes are advised, the 2018 winner Donna’s Diamond might be worth backing at big odds, He hated chasing last season, and then raced on ground too fast for him on his final start in this corresponding race. He’s at his best in the mud, has been given a Stayers’ Hurdle entry and has gone well fresh in the past. There will be worse 25/1 shots on that basis, even if there are concerns that the now 11-year-old could be on the downgrade.

    3:15 Unibet Grand National Trial Handicap Chase (Grade 3) 3m 4f 97y

    Geronimo appeals in this test of stamina having run really well in the Peter Marsh last time. Outpaced when the leaders quickened on the final circuit, he stayed on well to be beaten just seven lengths by Vintage Clouds, and will appreciate the extra yardage. That was probably a career best from Sandy Thomson’s son of the unfashionable Kadastrof, and he’s been dropped 1lb on the back of it. A winner over 3m3f at Ayr last January, stamina is clearly his strong suit, and Sean Quinlan is an underrated rider in events like this, and an excellent booking in the circumstances, with regular rider Ryan Mania needing to saw off at least one limb (don’t try this at home) to do the weight.

    Regards,

    Rory

    Josh 15/02/20 12:25 PM Reply


  • Wasn’t sure what was going ahead so only looked mid morning but three I like are Lord Du Mensil Haydock 15:15, Kilbricken Storm Haydock 15:50 and Easyrun De Vassey Ascot 16:10. All one point 1pt e/w singles.

    NickM 15/02/20 1:00 PM Reply


  • Lord du mesnil and Elegant Escape for me in the GNT, we shall see how progressive LDM is and EE love `s a good slog!!

    Stewart 15/02/20 2:23 PM Reply


  • I forgot to flag them here!!!!!

    Nicholls – February – 1 run in 90 days – 3/3 today!!!!! 11/10, 11/2, 4/1.

    I did back them and hopefully others spotted them without me flagging.

    Martin Colwell 15/02/20 5:12 PM Reply


    • ??? I’ve been flagging them all month in the Test zone Martin, having researched the angle in a micro Monday post for Feb 🙂 although my system only fired 2 out today for runs in 90.
      Well done.

      Josh 15/02/20 5:20 PM Reply


      • Thanks for flagging YOUR 90 day Nicholls qualifiers Josh. i backed both and yes there were only 2 today

        jamesm 15/02/20 6:09 PM Reply


  • North American Racing for Saturday evening:

    All bet365 prices.

    Fairgrounds race 12 – Digital 6/1 + Silver State 5/1 + Scabbard 8/1.

    Fairgrounds race 13 – Mr Big News 25/1 + Major Fed 12/1 + Mail Man Money 7/1.

    Good luck.

    Martin Colwell 15/02/20 7:07 PM Reply


    • One more in the 9.04 Philly Park – race 8.

      Fill Up Cohen Spiker 13/2 Bet365.

      Good luck.

      Martin Colwell 15/02/20 8:12 PM Reply


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