Members Daily Post: 12/02/20 (complete)

Hereford abandoned

1. My Tips

2.Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.General messages/updates/new reports etc

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1. My Tips

Daily Chase Tips Main (2019: 24/165, 49p +16.8 ) Jumps Festival Tips (2018:+143; 2019: 6/99,27p, -45.8,)

Daily Chase Tips: Main (2020: 2/30,5p, -17.8)

(handicap chases, 2m7f+, C4+)

None, no races of choice 

 

Best of The Blog? (test: 1/16, 6p; -7.5)

None.

 

2.Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

JUMPS

Hereford – Abandoned 

 

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Please Read: All information regarding the members club and how to engage in the content, what all the red symbols mean etc. Inc contact info, research articles and much more can be found HERE>>>

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3.Micro System Test Zone

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4.General messages/updates/new reports etc

Tracker Tuesday Post HERE>>>

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MONTHLY GUEST TIPS (Feb: 2/21,4p = +7.4)

A welcome brace from the Racing Consultants (Rory Delargy) yesterday, pulling in +30 points and propelling the month into profit – hopefully he can kick on during the rest of the month but that’s how it goes in this game. I was fearing i’d jinxed him and it wouldn’t be the first time i’ve done that to a tipster. If nothing else i’m finding the write ups informative and yesterday’s were top draw as you’d expect, especially the ‘horse/race reading’ of their last starts and why they may improve today.  I’ll be back later on in the comments as usual with today’s offering. 

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

22 Responses

  1. AW T/T
    A nice winner in Dream Game 9s if you got it. 7.50 N came up with 2nd at 14s bog and Silver Dust 3rd, combine those 2 with the guest tip and you had a nice fc and tricast. I had the former but not the latter.

    Onto Wed runners.
    3.25 S Charlie D…T Dascombe T/J…13/8
    5.00 K Attain…A Watson Hcp…6/1
    6.00 K Chloellie…J Jenkins Dist…3/1

    Mike

    1. Update on AW. T/T
      3.25 S Charlie D is a NR
      5.00 K Attain is on a long losing run but is now off 44 and in Class 7. Most of her wins were at Lingfield OR 60+. Last won june 18 off 68.
      6.00 K Chloellie is 5 from 12 at K and 4 from 6 with Probert on board latest win was jan 19 at K of 68 now off 61.

      Hope this helps, got time on my hands. Good Luck

      Mike

  2. North American Racing – Wednesday.

    Selections will be up by 5 PM here.

    0/12 to date, not a good start. This trial will run until end March 2020.

    Minimum price available when posted is 5/1.

    1. Wednesday bets in North America.

      Tampa race 4, 7.15 UK, Segismundo 11/2 Bet365.

      Gulfstream race 4, 7.31 UK, Congrats This 12/1 Paddy Power.

      Gulfstream race 5, 8.03 UK, Love Daddy 7/1 Coral.

      Gulfstream race 7, 9.03 UK, Tangled Web 16/1 Coral.

      Gulfstream race 10, Salute With Humour 22/1 BET365.

      Good luck.

  3. MONTHLY GUEST TIPS (Feb: 2/21,4p = +7.4)

    Recommended:

    7:00 Kemp – 1pt win Itsakindamagic @ 50/1 (general)

    Grand National – 1pt win Jett @ 80/1 (Ladbrokes, Coral, 888Sport etc)

    Total staked 2pts

    ———————————————————

    At Kempton on Wednesday, it may pay to take a chance on the talented but inconsistent Itsakindamagic (7:00 Kempton) for trainer Geoff Deacon. The gelding tends to race too freely for his own good, but both his career wins have come after a break, most recently from his current mark at Chelmsford in April. That came after several months off, and having been soundly beaten at the same track on his previous start. He now returns from 114 days off the track and after running down the field on his debut for his current handler.

    With no jump racing in Britain on Wednesday, and with the Grand National weights unveiled on Tuesday afternoon, it seems a fair opportunity to put up a couple of early fancies.

    With 9st 13lb, connections of Le Breuil may consider that they may have been let in too lightly, but when you consider that the National Hunt Chase winner of last year will get in off bottom weight if there are enough withdrawals, and that he has shaped much better than the result on both starts this season, including when jumping like a buck over these fences in December’s Becher Chase, then you have to get involved – the worst that can happen is that he misses the cut and punters get a refund, but I’d argue that he’s probably going to get a run based on recent renewals.

    Le Breuil’s win in the four-miler at Cheltenham in March has arguably been devalued by the controversy which followed, but he was in no way a fortunate winner, and has demonstrated class, stamina and sound jumping which are needed for this race. He was the worst sufferer of a standing start in the Classic Chase at Warwick last month, and did very well to pass most of the field having been bounced around like a pinball for much of the race. He is excellent value at 25/1 and his place in the pecking order should see that price hold up.

    The other horse of interest is David Pipe’s Ramses de Teillee, who is another who jumps and stays, and can have his pulled-up effort in last year’s race forgiven as his reins reportedly snapped at the Canal Turn on the second circuit, leaving David Noonan a passenger. He was not helped by racing off the pace in a race where the field had to bypass the 17th fence, and he’s shown himself at his best when up with the gallop, as he showed when a wide-margin winner of a Grade 2 novice hurdle at Doncaster last month.

    Ramses de Teillee is engaged to run at Haydock on Saturday, where a win would have no impact on his racing weight of 10st 5lb (sure to be described as a ‘nice racing weight’), but would see his price plummet, so it’s advisable to get on now, for all the grey could miss the National Trial in which he was runner-up a year ago to contest the Albert Bartlett at the Cheltenham Festival instead. Either way, his general odds of 40/1 seem pretty generous, and his chance would increase further on testing ground, which he handles very well.

    One horse whose price will NOT hold up even until the weekend, however is Jett, who will carry 10st 13lb at Aintree and was confirmed as an intended runner by Jessica Harrington yesterday. The gelding is a high-class 3m chaser who is hard to place in Ireland, and has been forced to run in Grade 1 events this season, finishing fourth, beaten less than ten lengths in the Irish Gold Cup earlier in the month.

    That isn’t a standout effort, and is roughly on a par with his second in the Clonmel Oil Chase, and his win in a Grade 3 at Punchestown in October when he gave 8lb and a narrow beating to Alpha des Obeaux. That pair will race at level weights at Aintree, and Jett is a year younger, so quite how Ladbrokes managed to come up with a price of 125/1 Jett on Tuesday is a complete mystery. He’s now 80/1, but should be somewhere in the 28/1 – 33/1 range, and my experience of markets like this is that standout ricks get corrected quickly.

    Regards,

    Rory

  4. A bit of AW fun to ease the boredom
    Warrior’s Valley Southwell: 16:00 8-1
    Deeds Not Words Southwell: 16:35 22-1
    Attain Kempton: 17:00 10-1
    Merry Vale Kempton: 17:30 3-1
    Monjeni Kempton: 19:30 17-2 (early price smashed in now)

  5. My ‘Ante Post’ pick for the handicap hurdle at Ascot , 3.00, on Saturday – Dorking Boy, 10/1, 4 places. 1/4 odds.

    This is his only entry pre Cheltenham, reasonably lightly raced, reasonable weight.

  6. Hi Josh, Now that the grand national weights are out, is there any way of looking at some stats of intended runners of the race and how they perform between now and the race. Hope I’ve explained that properly. Regards James

    1. Hmm, not easily, without going through them individually.
      I mean if just looking at the last 8 renewals (which i think covers the changes to the fences, always forget when modified and have same convo every year ! – 2012 or 13 possibly)… and I’m not sure when they bought in discretionary/compressing handicapping as they do it now.

      Anyway, 7/8 ran in last 60 days, which I think always covers period from when weights released.
      Of those 7 that ran in last 6 days, 4 placed, 3 did not. 2 of them won LTO (Tiger)

      In terms of trying to predict how some may run from now on, it’s tricky and will very much depend on connections I assume – obviously the mark doesn’t matter but some may not want horse to have a hard race, yet still know they need a sharpener to put them spot on, some may happily take in something in next month or so and horse there to run big race.

      the weights are now set, so I assume if something that is currently not getting in bolts up, it doesn’t improve their chance of running , they will just be ‘well in’ come the day/ahead of mark – but will still need X above them to drop out – but i’m not sure if winning puts you higher up the list of potentially getting in or not.

      So, not sure if there’s a way to think about said horses from now on or not!

  7. Think I agree with Le Brueil and Jessie always targets the National, so, fair comments those, not sure about RDT? On a cold wet Wednesday, it pays to do some study on these big races. Well done on the guest tips though Josh, thought I may have jinxed them also. Having a terrible time, after last year, but, we keep plugging away!

    1. I’ve been talking to Josh about Le Brueil half the season very much appreciating both his “near but always too late runs” and apparently Jamie very much booked for the GN or at least that’s what they’re hoping for. Will definitely be up near the top of the list when having a look near the time.

      1. His trainer is still not going well enough. That may change before the race? 25/1 best at present.
        Ramses De Tellee at 40/1 caught my eye.

        1. 25s is fair I think – I mean the fences are fine, he stays and has a touch of class. If Pauling goes into Aintree week having banged in the winners he won’t be 25s you wouldn’t have thought? He certainly won’t be bigger. But who knows. I’d say that risk is built into price. I’m not sure who’s going to ride him mind as Jamie C can’t do the weight – id go for Bass if he can get down that low, esp as he may be more aggressive on him and try and hold a prom position – he’d be dangerous if anywhere near the front approach the last, as he will just keep grinding.
          His yard is hard to read at the moment – had that make all chase winner at Kempton and odd other flicker but has generally been very quiet. Of course many of his may just want better ground – Charlie L has been quiet enough also but he’s got a few young guns lurking and I get sense he’s waiting for Spring ground and wouldn’t surprise me if he starts banging them in.

    2. Thanks Stewart, yesterday was needed but in truth i’ve just been enjoying reading Rory’s write ups as obviously well thought out as you’d expect but you can always pick up/ponder something from how others approach the game.
      Hopefully over time I can find plenty of others to include, and add some sort of value here – yesterday was a perfect example of that really – nothing from me, but still something of quality to muse over, and this time with bloody good results. It seems a few played the fun FC/Tri casts with the AW stats picks (alas I didn’t!) and may have done the fun EW double which is what it’s all about – use the content in any way you please, even if just reading.

  8. Biggest bet I ever had on Unibet was £3.50 E/W and not made a withdrawal for at least 2 months and I’ve been notified I’m restricted and not entitled to any promotion going forward.
    Got to be the most cautious bookie I’ve encountered. It’s getting ridiculous isn’t it?
    Where will it all end?

    1. No problems with Unibet myself, MORE cautious is 888, every time i place a bet £10 win or ew its refered to their traders, then the bet not taken, and betway, every horse bet is restricted to less than half stakes on singles and multiples, even today lADBROKES reduced the price on a horse by 4 points before i had chance to deposit monies, don’t deserve my custom, it’s getting pathectic.

  9. Tiger Roll, Donald McCains view would not have got round the Grand National course in Red Rums day, afraid the RSPCA etc have made them make the fences so much easier, and that is the reason more quality horses now run in the National for that reason along with the prize money.

    Method ? Trainer some years ago cannot remeber who told me to look out for horses that had run in that years Cheltenhams Gold Cup and then goes and runs in the National, has he said class and quality should be at the fore front, now the fences are easier.Remember one year Jenny Pitman had a second at 40/1.

    Not really taken any notice of the results for my view the National as become boring,and far to easy, horse does not have to jump the fences there is that much loose brush on top it just ploughs through to the other side, and i hardly ever have a bet in the race.
    Colin

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