Members Daily Post: 08/02/20 (complete)

best of blog x1, Section 2 (complete), test zone

1. My Tips

2.Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.General messages/updates/new reports etc

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1. My Tips

Daily Chase Tips Main (2019: 24/165, 49p +16.8 ) Jumps Festival Tips (2018:+143; 2019: 6/99,27p, -45.8,)

Daily Chase Tips: Main (2020: 2/30,5p, -17.8)

(handicap chases, 2m7f+, C4+)

None.

 

Best of The Blog? (test: 1/16, 6p; -7.5)

3.35 Newb  – Never Adapt – 1 point win – 7/1 (gen) PU/went wrong at first sadly. Hopefully she’s fine but awaiting news.

that’s all from me today, as of 08.38, write up at bottom of post…

 

2.Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

JUMPS

Newbury

1.50 –

Dolphin Square (micro age) 14,30 w1 H1 I1 6/1  UP

Ainchea (m runs) 7/1 UP

Dell’ Arca (m class) 33/1 3rd 

3.35 –

Stolen Silver (HcH) w1 H3  16/1 S2A UP

Gumball (m dist and age) 14,30  I3 40/1 UP

Oakley (m dist) 14,30  16/1 S2A UP

Zanza (m dist and age) 14,30 40/1 UP

Sir Valentine (HcH) 18/1 S2A 4th 

 

Uttoxeter

12.48 – So Lonely (m dist) ES+ I3 15/2 S3A UP

3.07 – Tap Tap Boom (all Hc’s) 30 18/1 S2A UP 50/1 

 

Warwick

1.30 – Pop The Cork (all Hc’s,m class) 14,30 w2 ES+ 14/1 S3A 2nd 16/1 

3.50 –

Lisdoonvarna Lad (m age) 11/1 UP

March Is On (all Hc’s,m class) 14,30 ES+ 12/1 S3A UP

 

 

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Please Read: All information regarding the members club and how to engage in the content, what all the red symbols mean etc. Inc contact info, research articles and much more can be found HERE>>>

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3.Micro System Test Zone

Monthly Trainers 

(2020: 13/35, 18p, +133.5 BFSP) 

Paul Nicholls (any, 8/1< best) 

3.00 Newb – Secret Investor H3 8/1 2nd 

3.35 Newb – Pic DOrhy 25/1  WON 25/1>33/1 (BFSP 110/1) 

 

Chase Angles 2019/20 

2.32 Uttox – Hollow Park (12/1<) 16/1 UP 11/1 

3.42 Uttox – Twast The Plan I1 10/1 UP

 

Jockey Angles 2019/20 

2.25 Newb – Kalashnikov (9/1< guide) I3 8/1 UP

 

Chase Eye-Catchers 2019/20 

3.15 Warw – Belami Des Pictons 4/1 UP

 

 

4.General messages/updates/new reports etc

Betfair Hurdle 

Stats/Trends

My 15/15 stats don’t help with shortlisting that much. If I combine those with looking at 5/6 YO who placed on last start that’s 11/15 winners (11/79 runners, 24p, +97 BFSP) and leaves…

Mack The Man / Never Adapt / Ciel De Neige / Stolen Silver H3 / Neff/ Ecco / Flegmatik 

Trainers (to have won race with runners) 

  • Never Adapt / Mill Green 
  • Stolen Silver H3 / Sir Valentine 
  • Pic Dorhy / Ecco / Tamaroc Du Mathan 
  • Neff

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1.50 Newbury 

Trainers (to have won race with runners) 

  • Veratility 
  • Dell Arca

3.15 Warwick 

Trainers (to have won race with runners) 

None. 

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Never Adapt – I’ve gone with one from the trends shortlist here, for a trainer who’s in red hot form and who’s won this race x5 previously. This talented mare is in the ‘could be anything’ category and I suspect this mark still underestimates here somewhat. It’s slowly clicking although she could do with settling better – however I thought that this large field/strong pace may be ideal -Barry will be able to cruise around and pick them off up the straight, provided Not So Sleepy hasn’t blown them away again (if he wins this well he could be interesting at the Festival). I thought she looked worth a go, in a race where those at single figure odds have a decent record.

That’s all from me for today, any tips from Rory will be posted later when I get them.

 

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

45 Responses

  1. Hi Josh – “Harry’s Historical Fact of the week”. The Game Spirit Chase
    The Game Spirit Chase is a Grade 2 National Hunt steeplechase which is open to horses aged five years or older. It is run at Newbury over a distance of about 2 miles and ½ furlong and during its running there are thirteen fences to be jumped. The race is scheduled to take place each year in February.
    The event was first run in 1953 (Marcianus) and is named in memory of Game Spirit, a successful racehorse who was owned by the Queen Mother. During the 1970s Game Spirit won 21 races in six seasons. He also finished third in the 1974 Cheltenham Gold Cup (won by Captain Christy) and second in the 1976 Champion Chase (won by Skymas). He died from a lung haemorrhage after racing at Newbury in March 1977.
    The Game Spirit Chase has held Grade 2 status since 1992. Before then it was classed at Listed level and run as a limited handicap.
    Last years running was cancelled due to Equine Flu, it has been called off a total of 13 times in the 67 years it has been established for various reasons – mainly the weather – and in 2006 the race was run at Lingfield and won by Don’t Be Shy
    5 horses have won the race twice – and how’s this for a list – Waterloo Boy, Viking Flagship, Azertyuiop, Master Minded & Altior
    David Nicholson won it 5 times as trainer in days gone by, and Paul Nicholls with 7 winners is the top trainer.
    This week’s race is the 2000 renewal – for a change I won’t spoil the fun and give the result away. Just like in the old days when you avoided the result of a football match that was being shown on Sportsnight (remember that?) and your mum says don’t know why you are avoiding the score there’s no goals anyway!! Enjoy!! Hope the link works!!
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gi4dpQ8myV4&list=PLfn5x2SD03q7YKlD34FVKYYhB3_qZaZcb&index=15

      1. When I saw the prices at the start of the stream I thought to myself I’d be all over that at that price, how’s that for a bit of aftertiming. Thanks for posting that Harrys

  2. Just some first thoughts after scanning Newb cards
    1:50 Vive Le Roi 9/1 early price i don’t think that price will stay
    if to bet against Alior than only Dynamite Dollars
    3.05
    There is Quoi De Neuf .I don”t think will win but can be placed
    Not So Sleepy is fantastic super class he can win even with that weight
    But i have been reading he had some health problems
    My bet Sir Valentine 14/1 CD winner third at Ascot about 12 l behind Not So Sleepy will run with same weight like at Ascot.Progressive horse have still more to offer.So i think good place money chance

    1. Sorry has to be Willie horse Ciel De Neige not Quoi De Neuf
      4:10 Radzor 9/2 main rival will be Mont Des Avaloirs
      Cap Soleil with Paddy 2.40 Warwick look overpriced if 9s
      Going well fresh so i will look that race more closely

      1. Mullins has a poor record in Saturday handicaps in the UK over time and they get over backed. The value goes for these races on the Wednesday/Thursday before. I am not so sure that much money comes but more like the bookies just shorten the field up?

        The 2 runners a place methodology ante post of bookies now seems in full swing. The Altior race a case in point. I tip on a Wednesday for a race on the Saturday and you have to get more involved in the more competitive races these days, rather than pinch a bit of early each way value for three places.
        For info this weeks tip was Belami Des Pictons at 7/1, 3.15 Warwick.

        Good luck.

      2. Lucky and unlucky day
        Vive le Roi lost even not placed Theo Charm gambled finish hd second so only good place money for me.And Sir Valentine it was maiden not so long time ago today very close fourth and placed in second big race 5.5 s place for me
        Remiluc came back from ashes
        Not So Sleepy had health problems and 17lb up.Was running today for 100k extra prize for wining double

  3. Not for everyone obviously but evens for Altior an Native River today, Looked around the cards and nothing really jumped out at me
    You go through the above 2 races and nothing is realistically putting up a challenge to those 2 in their races

    1. I would agree with the caveat that Altior has not been great for a while now and that Nicky Henderson does talk his horses up too much on occasion.

      The thing with Native River is that he does not need a hard race in his build up to The Gold Cup and so there must still be something to work on with him? But this lot may not push him.

  4. Looks a nice days racing if the gale force winds hold off and have suspended my not backing in C1/2 as i have some strong fancies.
    Newbury.
    1-50. Dolphin Square 6-1 bog 1/2 pt ew
    3-35. Thebannerkingrebel 8-1,Harambe 16-1 (bog 6 places) dutched ew 2 pts staked
    Naas.
    3-22. Killacolla 9-1 bog 5 places 1/2 pt ew
    Warwick
    2-40. Cap Soleil 7-1 bog 1/2 pt ew
    and a few fun bets
    Warwick.
    1-30. Petit Palais 16-1, Briac 50-1
    3-50. Uno Mass 20-1
    Uttoxeter.
    12-48. Llantara 12-1
    2-32. General Girling 8-1
    3-07. Poetic Rhythm 10-1

  5. Morning,

    have to be quick again today will try and get write ups done, but, time is always against me on a Saturday.
    13:50 Newbury
    ACEY MILAN 1pt win 9/2 gen
    VIVE LE ROI 1pt win 9/1 gen

    15:35 Newbury
    MACK THE MAN 1pt win 10/1 gen
    QUOUI DE NEUF 1pt win 16/1 gen
    HIGHLY PRIZED 1pt win 11/1 Hills 10/1 gen

    As always hope all horses and jockeys come back safe and sound and good luck with whatever your selections are today.

  6. I like both Harambe and Ecco for the Betfair both 1pt e/w and elsewhere I thought Belami Des Pictons was a good bet in the 15:15 at Warwick 1.5 pt win

  7. COLINS BETS
    1.30 Warwick Bard Of Brittany 5/2
    6.30 Wolverhampton Get The Luck 7/2

    FAVOURED
    12.55 Warwick Kingsplace 4/1
    1.30 Warwick Bard Of Brittany 5/2
    2.40 Warwick Indefatigable 3/1
    3.35 Newbury Thebannerkingrebel 9/1
    4.10 Newbury Highest Sun 3/1
    Colin

    1. Colin Have I missed something but have Aruba and Tip Top taking a break , or part of the pro tipping , been religiously following –

      1. Hi
        Put up some days ago that not being able to bet with bookmakers, Ladbrokes will only let me bet 10 pence ew or 20 pence win told them to go forth and multiply.
        In a nutshell have rent and bills to pay so afraid having to go down the tipping line route to bring in an income and it is not fair putting the bets up for free when people are subscribing.
        TIP TOP is now being sold alongside Elite which had a 9/1 winner today 15.07 BFSP.
        ARUBA now been renamed ON THE BRIDLE for strongly belief that it will be on par with Elite or even better, had to rename it for at the start got the rules wrong and people have long memories and probably would not look at anything named Aruba and only trialing it at the moment that is why i put it up today, and will put it up for everyone until we sell it.
        Mon/Tues unable to put the bets up because of my intense computer course, and my mate Neil is trialing them and i now send the name of the horse early Mon/Tues and he puts them out later with the prices.
        Mon/Tues out 6.15 for papers sort out range of bets leave home 7.45 for college 9 till 4 only 30 mins lunch agreed so we finish at 4 instead of 5, so unable to do more.
        Hope this is understandable.
        Colin

        1. Colin

          Gone back and checked – completely understand the need to make money – best of luck for the future with those
          can you pm me the subscription route – Josh has my email

  8. ON THE BRIDLE after a 7/1 winner yesterday decided to put up the bets today and do what you want with them, a busy day
    1.45 Lingfield Stormbomber 7/2
    1.50 Newbury Dolphin Square 11/2
    2.20 Lingfield Silent Attack 3/1
    3.07 Uttoxeter Any Drama 7/2
    3.15 Warwick Gala Ball 9/1
    6.00 Wolverhampton Real Estate 9/2
    6.00 Wolverhampton Chookie Dunedin 11/2
    Prices are what i took earlier.
    Colin

  9. I could only get the 3.35 down to a few – Highly Prized; Mill Green; Ecco; The Bannerkingrebel.

    1.50 Newbury, Versatility each way.

    4.10 Newbury, Mont Des Avaloirs.

    All 1 point each way.

  10. MONTHLY GUEST TIPS (Feb: 0/17,1p = -20.6)

    (email received 11.45) >>>

    Recommended:

    1:15 Newb – 1pt e/w Tremwedge @ 12/1 (Bet365, BetVictor)
    1:50 Newb – 1pt win Vive Le Roi @ 12/1 (Bet365, Ladbrokes, Coral)
    3:00 Newb – 1pt win Secret Investor @ 9/1 (Bet365, Ladbrokes, Coral)

    Total staked 5pts

    ————————————-

    Newbury:

    1:15 Set Your Own Odds On Betfair Exchange Novices’ Hurdle 2m 69y

    Chantry House is likely to take the beating in a race dominated by Nicky Henderson this century, but the Cheltenham winner will be short, and it’s more appealing to back each-way against him. The suggestion is Tremwedge, who has shaped really well in a couple of juvenile hurdles for Ellmarie Holden before being sold at the Cheltenham Sales in December for £80,000.

    Tremwedge was just a poor maiden on the Flat, and for him to perform so well on his first two starts over hurdles, despite tending to race freely, gives hope that he will do even better when adapting fully to his new role. His new trainer is adept with juveniles as he’s shown with the likes of Franchoek and Katchit in particular, and the four-year-old is of some interest in receipt of a healthy 16lb from the race favourite.

    1:50 Betfair Bet In-play Handicap Hurdle 3m 52y

    Vive Le Roi goes well here, and with the ground riding primarily good on the hurdles course here, he looks poised for another big run. The winner of a C&D handicap hurdle at the Winter Festival here last season, he made a bold bid to take the same race this term, and went under by less than a length by Champers On Ice. He was conceding 5lb (not including riders’ claims) to fourth-placed Dolphin Square that day, and despite finishing 2¾ lengths in front of that gelding, they renew rivalry with the selection fully 6lb better off. That is despite Vive Le Roi finishing a creditable second in the Lanzarote Hurdle last time, where the trip was on the sharp side for Tony Carroll’s stayer.

    Not only does Vive Le Roi have excellent claims at the weights of confirming C&D form with Dolphin Square, but he’s somehow a much bigger price than that rival, who has admittedly won a lesser-class handicap at Ludlow subsequently.

    2:25 Win Bigger On The Betfair Exchange Chase (Game Spirit) (Grade 2) 2m 92y

    It would be pleasing to see Altior back to his best here, and the return to quicker ground and a left-handed track are both positives, not to mention the trip, so he ought to get back to winning ways, but comments about his jumping made before and after his defeat at Ascot still hold true – that is that notions of him as a superb jumper are coloured by a belief in his invincibility, so when he clears the final ditch with a foot to spare, we tend not to mention the energy wasted in such flamboyancy, or note that when landing steeply after an extravagant leap, he takes longer to gather himself up that should be the case.

    Altior was far too strong for Sceau Royal up the Cheltenham hill last March, but he was outjumped by that rival at the last two fences, and it will be interesting to see if any of Nico de Boinville’s rival jockeys are happy to go head to head with Altior in an attempt to make the most of this potential flaw. If they do, then they risk being taken out of their own comfort zone, but if they don’t then they are effectively gifting the contest to the favourite. Sceau Royal is the obvious one to match his slick jumping against Altior, as he did last spring, but Alan King’s gelding is something of a weak finisher these days, and even if he can poach a lead coming out of the last fence, the long run-in means he’s unlikely to hold on to that lead from a notably strong finisher.

    3:00 Betfair Denman Chase (Grade 2) 2m 7f 86y

    We’ve sadly got to the stage where a rematch of the front two in a thrilling 2018 Gold Cup is no longer enough to great a buzz of excitement, and so it is that Native River is an overwhelming favourite for a race which will not play to his strengths. Might Bite has fallen spectacularly from grace since bouncing out of that Gold Cup to win the Betway Bowl at Aintree. He’s not only been well beaten when standing up over fences in the past season and a half, but he has trailed his old rival by a long way on each of those starts, and was unlikely to have fared much better at Aintree in December, his ignominious unseat merely a different way of losing face.

    The deterioration of Might Bite is a real shame, not just in the way it’s always sad to see a former star in decline, but in terms of this contest, as a trip short of three miles on good ground must surely see Native River vulnerable, and the fact that he’s as short as 1/3 shows how weak the opposition is. Nevertheless, I think he must be opposed at such skinny odds, his Aintree rout hardly conclusive proof that he’s as good as he was, and a chance is taken on Secret Investor, who is not running well, but is at least able to offer the excuse of deep ground being unsuitable. The son of Kayf Tara can get back to his best returned to the sound surface which suits, and while he can’t beat a 2018-vintage Native River, he may not have to improve markedly to get close to that aging rival under these conditions.

    3:35 Betfair Hurdle (Handicap) (Grade 3) 2m 69y

    Good ground makes this contest a relative test of speed, and that will suit Highly Prized, who has impressed on a sound surface at Newton Abbot and Huntingdon this season, and is a rare case of a horse who failed over hurdles in the United States being reinvented successfully in a similar role here. He has thrived of late for Emma Lavelle, and his key attributes are a turn of foot and a quick jumping technique. The race he won at Huntingdon looks strong for the grade, and it’s encouraging that all three of his wins for Lavelle have come off a break of ten weeks or more, making his absence since November a positive.

    Having put him up on a Podcast on Thursday afternoon, his price has collapsed from 33/1 to 8/1, and that’s plenty short enough now, sadly.

    Regards,

    Rory

  11. 1.50 NEWBURY
    ONE FOR THE TEAM…9/2 Best
    Cannot for the life of me understand why that there is no money for the horse.
    – Lightly raced
    _ Progressive
    _ Stays Well
    – Been keeping EX company
    _ Form franked
    _ 2LB Lowered
    _ Twice placed at the track
    If he does not place here, I will not just be thinking about giving up…I’ll do it!

    1. Well done Mac, good shooting there and well reasoned. Never in much doubt up the straight. You live to fight another punting day!

  12. Live from the sofa :–
    1.05 Naas Seskin Flyer = trainer does well with placed horses lto and likes a saturday winner
    3.07 U Poetic Rhythmn = on my tracker and looks an e/w shout to me ?
    3.15 W Belami Des Pictons = looks to have been readied for this race by trainer
    3.22 Naas Wajaaha = e/w and it’s trainer likes a saturday winner
    3.35 Newb Never Adapt = must have a great e/w shout in todays conditions
    3.50 W Lord Getaway = trainer does well with placed horses lto and likes a saturday winner
    Thanks the Sofakingexpert

  13. EW betting our guest tipster gone EW 1.15 Newbury Tremwedge 12/1 1/5 , when i looked more like 10/1 1/5 makes it easier stake 2 points return if placed so a nice 50% profit on stake, win even better.

    My view also taking a bookmakers view it has 14 runners against it, today’s going is advertised good, its last 2 runs soft
    3rd from 9 runners
    3/14
    good ground mentioned 4 runs
    10/15
    10/16
    9/16
    10/17
    My own opinion is it worth doubling your stake with all the risks involved, hopefuly for racing consultants it romps home, for myself i cannot understand the bet and would rather watch to see how it performs on its first run for Alan King, will it be good enough for Cheltenham will see shortly, if it is a blot on the handicap!!!
    Possibly egg on his face
    Colin

    1. I couldn’t back a horse each way in a race like that when it’s a certainty Chantry House will be taking one of the three spots. I don’t understand the bet on Tremwedge at all, but I’m no tipster 🙂

  14. Also drawn to….3.35 NEW
    Sir Valentine. 20/1 6 places WHill.
    got murdered by oh so sleepy last time out, but has a 17 lb pull.
    Trainer has a good record in the race.
    He was one of my alerts as was the other two given!

    1. indeed…. the Betfair SP was somehow 110/1 !!

      Something to be said for such a systematic approach it seems! Good fun for small stakes, and a nice boost to the monthly trainers total! Plenty of faith needed with him but he was lightly raced over here and the better ground / drop to 2m / strong pace has seemingly worked wonders for him! Carnage in the race though, standing start ruined plenty, mine went wrong at first and not sure if good news, fallers at last etc – quite dramatic. Still, any followers of the monthly trainers won’t mind! 🙂

      1. Josh
        On Paul Nichols there is an 8/1 best, so according to the rules this cannot be recorded as a bet or are you dropping the 8/1 best and including all 17/2 and upwards losers that have run, this is always difficult with a price limit when a biggie wins above the limit.
        Can you clarify the rules for must admit have been thinking about recording the trainers results.
        Cheers
        Colin

        1. Ah It says ‘any’ (meant to indicate any odds) , 8/1< best (as per research if some using as a way in etc may be a guide etc) . Any is meant to indicate any odds, but 8/1 or shorter is best as per the stats research. Not an odds cap So he will be recorded as have all his at all odds. If you look at Hollow Park in test zone, that's a cap, 12/1<, Kalashnikov angle has 'guide' Always tricky with odds and those monthly I am trying to make with no cap and sorry if you've read that and thought it was 8/1 or shorter only but the 'any' was meant to indicate any odds. Josh

  15. Nice Pic ! I had a nice go on that Josh, been following a lot of your monthly angles recently, been highly profitable, i just don’t understand why you don’t tip them. Many thanks

    1. ha, well it’s easy afterwards! post race given circs hard to say what would have happened – I personally found him hard to weigh up, needed plenty of faith with that one I thought but there we go. Would have been nice to land on him in best of blog but alas. But that’s the point of such approaches like that. I’ve highlighted the monthly trainers and how they’ve been doing plenty so hopefully a few others may have had a small dabble.
      I’ve been trying to stick with horses high up in HRB ratings in truth, as a way of shortlisting and not getting overwhelmed, and not many in monthly have hit those etc – but in truth i’m just in crap form which is clear.

      1. Josh, I think you have an impossible task of cherry picking a winner from all the stat picks. I tried this a couple of years ago with my systems when it was throwing up between 10 and 20 bets a day trying to pick 4 or 5 a day and it soon became clear that it wouldn’t work. It’s exactly the same as drawing the name from a hat it won’t work long term at all. Now I realise that 20 picks a day is far too many and I quickly started to reduce the amount of systems and tighten up the amount of qualifiers from the remainder to give me an average of 10 a day, on average 3 a day get kicked out either as non runners or out of profitable price ranges, so I’m left with an average of 7 bets. You have to back them all to get any success otherwise you’ll miss too many winners over time. The only ones to swerve if needs be are the shorties and the ridiculously big ones which is subjective of course.

        1. Yep I agree in general, obv that’s reason for odd strategy long term, and now the monthly trainers which have been ticking along since Sept, and at least are refreshed every month or so , and with any luck that may ensure long term they do ok, with the odd blow out month etc.

          For the best of blog test I try and just focus on those top3/4 depending on field size in HRB ratings as they’re generally the best ones in handicaps from the research – we shall see how it goes. You have to just accept missing winners, as you do with everything on this site! You’d go mad otherwise. Time will tell 🙂 But it may transpire I can’t make it work.

          1. I didn’t know the stat picks cover all races types. Do you know how they would fare just using handicaps? Maybe that would reduce the quantity enough if there were just a handful each day to back.

          2. Oh most of the stats are just handicaps. Section 2 is handicaps and nearly all the test zone angles. The Monthly Trainers generally are but not the Nicholls one. Most are handicap angles.

  16. What a top day folks
    Fired a few 2quid darts at the manic Betfair hurdle on the exchange
    And the rest of balance in a few accounts went on the Altior +River double, not much tbf 50quid or so
    Don’t make a habit of that but it stood out like a sore thumb looking at the rest of fields
    Do quite like a shorties multi tho in the right races, do think my treble would of come in last week in the Dublin festival as I wasn’t overly impressed with Chacum pour Soi and do think that A plus tard would of beat him again with the stamina test of the race suiting towards the end but we’ll never know
    Best part of the day tho the exchange darts were Gumball, Flegmatic and Pic’dohry!! Do remember the vibes from the yard last year and Josh’s micro up top was the last nod, 79/1 for me can’t believe the BFSP !!!!!

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