Members Daily Post: 07/02/20 (complete)

Main tip x2, Section 2 (complete), test zone

1. My Tips

2.Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.General messages/updates/new reports etc

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1. My Tips

Daily Chase Tips Main (2019: 24/165, 49p +16.8 ) Jumps Festival Tips (2018:+143; 2019: 6/99,27p, -45.8,)

Daily Chase Tips: Main (2020: 2/28,5p, -15.8)

(handicap chases, 2m7f+, C4+)

2.10 Bangor – BENECHENKO – 1 point win – 13/2 (WH) 6/1 (gen/bog) (as of 08.38) UP 4/1, the first 2m or so went to plan, looked to be travelling well dictating, has hit a flat spot and then all sorts of carnage at one of jumps, game over, may have been going backwards mind but hard to know. plugged on after that. Another drifter winning, 9/2 to 7s. 

3.30 Kempton – WAIKIKI WAVES – 1 point win – 11/1 (WH/BetfS/PP/BV) 10/1 (the rest) (as of 09.14) UP 12/1 – well that was depressing to watch – never travelled early at all, just not at the races, and plodded home – complete off day from him, that was over after 2f. 

that’s all for main chase tips today, write up at bottom of post…

 

Best of The Blog? (test: 1/15, 6p; -6.5)

None today.

 

2.Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

JUMPS

Bangor

2.10 –

High Counsel (all Hc’s) w1 w2 H3 I3 7/2 UP

Misfits (HcCh) 11/1 UP

3.50 –

Prince Khurram (HcH) w2 H3 14/1 UP

Oscar Nomination (all Hc’s) w2 I1 16/1 S2A UP

Nefyn Point (HcH,m TJC) H1 I3 G3 13/2 S4 (S1 IF 11.00+ BFSP) UP

The Herds Garden (HcH) I3 18/1 S2A UP

 

Kempton

3.30 – Another Stowaway (m runs) I3 9/1 UP

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TTP Chase Angles 2019/20 

3.30 Kemp – Another Stowaway (any) I3 9/1 UP

 

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Please Read: All information regarding the members club and how to engage in the content, what all the red symbols mean etc. Inc contact info, research articles and much more can be found HERE>>>

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3.Micro System Test Zone

Monthly Trainers

(2020: 11/31, 16p, +28.68 BFSP) 

Paul Nicholls (any odds, 8/1< best) 

2.45 Bang – Bob And Co  1/2  WON Evens 

4.00 Kemp – Duc De Bourbon H3 I3 9/4 

 

Jockey Angles 2019/20 

2.10 Bangor – Albertos Dream (25/1<) 11/1 UP

3.30 Kemp – Touch Kick (any) H1 I3 G1 9/4 UP

 

Chase Eye-Catchers 2019/20 

2.10 Bangor – Benechenko (3rd run) H3 I1 13/2 UP 4/1

2.10 Bangor – Big Difference (1st run) 10/3 UP

2.25 Kemp – Celtic Joy (Hot Form – 1st run) H3 I3 G3 10/3 UP

3.30 Kemp – Kilfilum Cross (3rd run) H3  10/1 2nd 

 

 

4.General messages/updates/new reports etc

Trends Thursday Post HERE>>>

(inc Betfair hurdle which has traditionally been a decent race with my trends approach, i’ll see what sort of shortlist it throws up Friday afternoon) 

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2.10 Bangor –

Benechenko – I thought 6s was just about fair in this line up – he has shaped like a thorough stayer most of his life and is well worth a go at this trip – I think he will stay and may enjoy this tempo.

He gets 1st blinkers also to help him and it’s a bit of a coin toss as to a) whether they work b) whether the horse travels strongly, but without doing too much. Hopefully they try an aggressive ride also – I never know why you’d put blinkers on a horse to spark the flight instinct only to then hold them up. But we shall see.

I had a look at Beneficials offspring’s record with 1st blinkers –

  • Beneficial (sire)
  • 1st blinkers
  • 7/1< SP

51 bets / 11 wins / 22p / +12 SP

Of those aged 5-8… 11/41, 19p, +22.

Fergal’s record when applying them is solid enough and the horse ran well in 1st CP in Feb 18 over a trip too short.

His form has a solid look to it and if I look back to his novice hurdles form you’d have to think he will demolish a mark of 107 when it all clicks – the hope is that this trip, the blinkers and maybe the form of the yard (6/20,13p last 14 days, in better form than when he last ran) help him to show his best.

So, I thought there was enough there at 6s in this race. If he’s evidently travelling well and holding a prominent position I don’t think he will be found wanting in the last few furlongs here.

Of the rest…

High Counsel is the right fav given he’s in the form of his life but he’s up the weights again, didn’t beat much LTO for me, and he does have stamina to prove – he ran LTO as if he’d be fine but he is 7/2 and that felt about right. But a massive run from him wouldn’t be a shock.

I couldn’t really have the rest for one reason or another.

I can leave Big Difference at 7/2 – he is unexposed and has chases in him – i’m still not sure on the form of the yard – very quiet yet again. The yard had illness problems in Oct/Nov and Pauling’s stats, bar the odd horse, suggest there could still be lingering issues. They should all burst into life at some stage but i’d want bigger odds on one of his at the moment. This one may have won LTO but for slithering on landing up the straight – but he’s inexperienced and again has stamina to prove. Too many questions for one at 7/2 for me. 

Neither of those two would be a shock. I suppose Sheneededtherun wouldn’t either at 9/2 but again questions from this career high mark and stamina to prove also.

Albertos Dream is a proven stayer and that can count for plenty but he’s 11 now and doesn’t look in the best of form. I suspect Katy Price runs plenty of hers into form (my ‘contacts’ suggest she doesn’t have the best work riders/the horses run away with them and thus don’t get properly fit at home – the horses getting fitter with racing and then winning a few makes sense logically on that basis) and he could step forward here. But at 10s i’ll just have to live with an old timer beating me. He usually held up also. 

Clondaw is a monkey – if he travels he will stay, but he can get in a strop and need plenty of scrubbing along. A risky one. But if running his race he will plug on. That could be enough but not for me today.

The rest have even more questions to my eyes.

So, fingers crossed Fergal can have another winner – it will be obvious early on if the blinkers have had a positive effect – he’s generally been consistent, responds to pressure and runs his race. Cue a PU! 🙂 

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3.30 Kempton

Waikiki Waves –

11s looks big here to my eyes. I fancied this one LTO in the ‘best of blog test’ and he ran better than his final finishing result would suggest. I thought the break before his last run may have been deliberate/he went well fresh, but reading Moore’s quote for the race in the RP online today, it appears he had a set back and wasn’t fully fit for that race- in that context he ran even better. He seemed to find the pace a bit too much over that trip/class, having wanted to race prominently originally – he also seemed to struggle over some of the fences, while jumping others superbly. It looked exciting after the pond fence and he was in there pitching. He then walked through the last, game over – he’d have been battling for a place there and Cap Du Nord who was in front followed up on his next start. Solid form. 

He arrived into that race in the form of his life and looked progressive. He does need to step forward again and has it to prove over this trip – but he shapes like he will get it, esp on this ground around here – and that’s a reason for why he may improve further. He does have class to prove but LTO was good enough for me, esp in context of his price. And given his profile I can’t sit here and say he can’t win from this mark – he’s that to prove and this race may tell us plenty. But I don’t want to miss out today at 11s, as clearly if the mark is fine/he stays, then he won’t be that price NTO. 

I thought he could give Touch Kick enough to think about and Jamie will try to track the pace – I hope so anyway. Gary and Jamie are in decent form, 1/5,3p last 14 days, 4/12, 8p last 30 days. This horse should be spot on for this and will appreciate the light weight on his back as he doesn’t look the biggest.

Of the rest…

Touch Kick looks short to me – he is 9 and now on a career high mark – 6lb above that Fakenham win which was a poor race. He does have that to prove and I want to take him on at 2s. That may prove foolish and if he runs his race he should go close, but he isn’t bombproof for me, albeit he could make me look silly. He’s the obvious one and while that may pay today, it doesn’t long term. 

Wicked Willy is well handicapped now, 3lb below his last winning mark, and I suspect will strike at some point. I fancied him LTO, foolishly, as Sam held him up cold and that was over early. His hold up style is off putting for an 8s shot in a big enough field like this, but he does have more chases in him and conditions suit. He has course form over hurdles and will stay. This could also be run to suit. I suppose at the odds he may be the ‘annoying winner’ in this line up but I need to stop backing hold up chasers and if he does me, so be it.

Canelo has too many questions for an 11/2 shot but he’s unexposed, so again, no shock – not to sound like a broken record. Alan King’s yard isn’t in the best of form either and he can be ridden patiently. I found him easy to leave at his price.

Another Stowaway – i’m not totally sure on him as a horse, something niggles at me inc his overall form, and he does need more than LTO – again the George yard are a bit hit and miss at the moment also. He shouldn’t get an easy lead like LTO but they will try and be prominent. He should have more chases in him when it clicks again. A repeat of LTO shouldn’t be enough in this line up. 

Boughtbeforelunch just doesn’t like winning but one of his placed efforts could be enough if a few others fall in a hole. I can’t have him at 7s or so but he does usually run his race.

Kilfilum Cross – you do wonder if they’re getting his mark down for the Kim Muir – now on the same mark as for his 2nd last year, but horses rated 133 got into that race so they could get a couple more pounds off before a return to Chelt in a few weeks. However they do try 1st CP which makes me think he could be here to run his race (they could have saved for the Festival, unless they want to test whether they help or hinder) – this trip/ground will suit much better and he could go well, but is open to attack from younger/less exposed legs- although in fairness this is only his 9th chase start! Maybe an interesting outsider and second guessing connections can be a foolish game, but surely Chelt is the aim again??! My eye-catchers have been doing ok generally. 

So, maybe the Nicholls horse will bolt up as the market expects, but it feels a bit more open to my eyes and if he does falter, hopefully my pin has landed on the right one. Provided he jumps I suspect he will look dangerous turning for home- after that we shall see if he relishes this trip or not.

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

12 Responses

  1. I have only Another Stowaway after first look
    and it is enough for me
    cold here i have proven losing run under cold weather

  2. COLINS BETS
    7.15 Chelmsford Siena Mia 4/1
    good winner yesterday at 9/2

    FAVOURED
    2.00 Southwell Sambucca Spirit 4/1

    Colin

  3. Hi Josh
    Diamond River is running again today 16-00Kempton up against the Paul Nicholls qualifier so we will see how much he has learnt from the Warwick race expecting a good run according to Nicky Henderson we shall see hoping for good run and safe return

    Peter

    1. Hi Peter,
      Best of luck, exciting times… yep he was keen enough LTO and obviously entitled to step forward plenty, mentally if nothing else – it looks a decent enough race, hope he runs well – being in and around the Nicholls horse and C Gordon’s would be solid enough form as their LTO races are starting to work out well – and if you can beat them, even better. The sort who looks to do better in time, and over further- but if you’re going close/winning bumpers, would suggest you’ve a 2m6f+ horse on your hands to look forward to. Enjoy your day out if you’re going,
      Josh

    2. The current 11/4 seems OK in his race. So 1 point win.

      I prefer Global Society for Hendo in the 1.50, at 5/2, 2 points win.

      Also I did not mind Royal Ruby in the 2.55 at 10/1, 1 point each way.

      Good health to the horses and the jockeys.

  4. MONTHLY GUEST TIPS (Feb: 0/14,1p = -16.6)

    (email received 11.30) >>>

    Recommended:

    2:25 Kemp – 1pt win Not That Fuisse @ 5/2 (general) 2nd
    2:55 Kemp – 1pt win Another Tuco @ 8/1 (general) UP

    Total staked 2pts

    ——————————————-

    “Of all the gin joints in all the towns in all the world, she walks into mine. Play it, Sam. Play As Time Goes By.” It’s probably one of the most quoted lines in cinema history, and it’s certainly the most misquoted. Rick Blaine may have had mixed feelings about the arrival of Ilsa Lund in his life, but I’m feeling decidedly upbeat about the chances of Ofalltheginjoints (1:50 Kempton) in the Every Race Live on RacingTV Novices’ Hurdle.

    Colin Tizzard’s charge put up his best performance when just touched off on good to soft ground over C&D on his second start, and although he’s not progressed as hoped, he’s faced quite stiff tasks in black-type events at Sandown and Cheltenham since, both on more testing ground. The return to this track on better ground should be a catalyst for a return to his best, and he looks value against likely hot-pot Global Society, who impressed visually on debut for Nicky Henderson at Doncaster, but didn’t achieve a huge amount on the clock, and will be more thoroughly tested here.

    Not That Fuisse (2:25 Kempton) was unplaced on his handicap debut over fences, but that came in the Caspian Caviar Gold Cup at Cheltenham, which was a big ask for a novice, and he looks well handicapped based on what he did prior to that. The French-bred gelding was second to Erick Le Rouge on his chase debut when he had On The Slopes behind him, and he caught the eye when splitting Al Dancer and Getaway Trump at Cheltenham next time.

    He is on a decent mark on that piece of form, and new handicapping rules mean that he could not be raised for it, so he entered handicaps based on his hurdles rating, and while his jumping needs a bit of work, he appears capable of better as a chaser, and can show as much back in calmer waters. He meets On The Slopes just 1lb worse than when finishing 3½ lengths ahead of him at Uttoxeter, and he should not be a bigger price than that rival now.

    Another Tuco (2:55 Kempton – Nap) has yet to achieve a great deal over hurdles, but he has been dropped back to the minimum trip on both starts since making his debut over three miles at Doncaster, and it’s hardly surprising he’s been beaten a fair way by the Nicky Henderson-trained pair Mister Coffey and Shishkin in a couple of above-average novice events at Newbury.

    He is entitled to improve markedly for the switch to handicaps, and it is encouraging to note that not only did Warren Greatrex train the winner of this race 12 months ago, but that the yard is sending out a steady flow of winners again after a surprisingly quiet winter. If the name seems familiar, it’s perhaps because the brilliant but ill-fated Tuco was the first horse ever to sport the colours of Gigginstown House Stud back in the early 1990’s.

    Regards,

    Rory

  5. North American racing for Friday;

    As at 6.15 UK time.

    All at Gulfstream:

    Race 7, 9.03, Frank Alone 7/1.
    Race 8, 9.33, Remarkable Soul 16/1.
    Race 9, 20.03, Fortunes Fool 8/1.
    Race 10, 10.33, Smoke And Gloat 8/1.

    Good luck.

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