Members Daily Post: 06/02/20 (complete)

1. My Tips

2.Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.General messages/updates/new reports etc

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1. My Tips

Daily Chase Tips Main (2019: 24/165, 49p +16.8 ) Jumps Festival Tips (2018:+143; 2019: 6/99,27p, -45.8,)

Daily Chase Tips: Main (2020: 2/28,5p, -15.8)

(handicap chases, 2m7f+, C4+)

1.23 Donc – ADHERENCE – 1 point win –  14/1 (gen) UP 8/1, nibbled at but run flattened out up the straight.  Twisters ran well and has chases in him, the winner has drifted from 5/2 morning odds fav to 15/2 SP which is annoying, no shock he’s done that but happy to take on at 5/2, one you’d have wanted to be with at his SP. Good ride from Cook. The Greatrex team back in good form. 

as of 08.48… that’s all for today, write up at bottom of post 

 

Best of The Blog? (test: 1/15, 6p; -6.5)

None.

 

2.Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

JUMPS

Doncaster

2.55 – Board Of Trade (micro distance) 9/2 UP

 

Huntingdon

3.40 –

The Composeur (HcH, m runs) 14 ES+ 4/1 S3A WON 4/1>10/3 

Eaton Miller (all Hc’s) G1 7/1  S1 UP 

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Please Read: All information regarding the members club and how to engage in the content, what all the red symbols mean etc. Inc contact info, research articles and much more can be found HERE>>>

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3.Micro System Test Zone

Chase Angles 2019/20

LTO winners starting point (12/1<)

2.01 Hunt – Lots Of Luck H1 I3 G3 4/6 2nd

Jockey Angles 2019/20

1.31 Hunt – Leskinfere (25/1<) I3 G3 10/1 UP

 

 

4.General messages/updates/new reports etc

1.23 Donc – 

Adherence – 

This is a poor race and the sort where nothing would be a total surprise but i’ve no idea how this one is 14s. He looks the big overpriced one in this race to my eyes. 

He’s unexposed in handicap chases, 1/5, and returns to better ground. His first chase win at Taunton 3 starts back was on good to soft and he bolted up there. That was a C5 but this race isn’t that much better, if at all. Importantly he has C4 form over hurdles and his first two runs for the yard last March/April were solid- especially his 3rd at Chepstow where he was beat by 2 progressive ones over 19f, having been outpaced. He stuffed the rest but the winner went up to 117 and the 2nd would bolt up NTO and go up to 120. He did well for a 101 horse and if repeating such an effort over fences one day, he’s take a race like this comfortably enough. Two starts back he fell at the first under Charlie Price, and LTO with Johns back on I think he may have got stuck in the heavy ground – it could be he handled it fine and it was just a mediocre effort but that was also at a time when the yard were quiet enough. Trainer/jockey are now 3/11,4p in the last 14 days. I don’t know if Vaughan jabs his over December sometimes, i’ll try and find out, but it may explain why he went cold enough. 

Stamina is a question – there’s hope he may improve for 3m on decent ground and he’s shaped numerous times, inc for his chase win over 22f, as if he’s well worth a go. His run at Sedgefield over shorter was ok also, staying on, and there’s have been a few winners to come out of that, inc the winner going in twice since. Solid enough for the grade. Tactics wise… he is also usually ridden patiently which I never really like but he does have ‘pace’ relatively speaking, and touch wood has jumped well under Johns. Over this trip it could be he can hold a more prominent position, and with more chase experience also – in any case, given both those questions you want a price and 14s looked worth a go. He’s one of the few in this race with upside potential and I think he could still be well handicapped from 105. 

Of the rest…

There’s nothing really at the prices that would annoy me as such – well maybe the other most interesting at 7s is Imperial Nemesis, who may leave me cursing and could be worth a saver. 

Twister’s has generally been woeful in his career so far (now 0/10) and was in the process of being well stuffed by the fav LTO when they met at Wetherby. However, that was his first chase, the run may have come quick enough after his seasonal return and it could be he will relish this better ground. And he lost a shoe there. 

There were just a few too many questions for a 7s shot I thought and I wanted bigger, (maiden/inexp over fences/stamina to prove/poor run LTO) but he could well bounce to life and prove himself to be chucked in, and Sam now takes over.  Having said he’s generally been woeful – if I look back to his 4th in a Warwick maiden hurdle in Nov 18 he had 125/130+ horses in front of him there. 

There should be more to come from him one day and he’s the sort that’s tricky to assess in the price range – but it is a woeful race. Maybe he will make 7s look good but I’d want to see a bit more first and may prefer to back him at shorter NTO if he runs well here, provided he doesn’t hack up. 

At the top of the market…

Well, Minella Examiner at 5/2  is clearly interesting – throughly unexposed and he was going to bolt up LTO when falling 2 out where he completely guessed at one – we shall see how that affects his confidence. He’s also on much better ground and it could be a faster pace – he shouldn’t have as much time to measure his fences here- so at his price I thought he was worth taking on – however if he got it altogether, he’d go close, given his profile. 

We are then into the exposed brigade – 

Coopers Square is being nibbled at and he could take this but 9/2 didn’t jump out at me for a 9 YO exposed handicapper – 4/11,5p in handicap chases – who is 12lb above his last winning mark and 6lb above a close 2nd in April 19. I can’t have him at his price but he’s a solid ‘been there and done it’ horse who likes decent ground, and just running his race could be enough as the 3 unexposed ones could all falter. 

I looked at Running Wolf for a time given that he’s one of the few exposed ones who’s well handicapped again (on/below last winning mark) and the yard are flying, and do well here. But he does have a few wellbeing questions given recent profile however he goes ok fresh – i’ve more of a stamina question over him also and the general level of the form of his races isn’t great, and in smaller fields. Enough there for me to leave – with eyes on a more unexposed types. 

The rest also have plenty of questions including Pipes and Tudors Treasure who has to prove he stays. 

Pace wise… Coopers S will be up there, the fav maybe also, and there’s 2/3 others who can be up there. Adherence – i’ll have to trust in Johns at this price and hopefully he doesn’t anchor him right out the back – but the leaders could well all stop up the straight. 

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About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

28 Comments

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  • AW T/T

    1.40 C American Dreamer…J Osbourne Cl…14/1…33s bf, pp. WH 4 places 18s
    2.10 C Lunar Deity…S Williams Dist…7/1…20/1 bf , pp.
    7.00 N Calins Lad…B Haslam Hcp…9/4
    7.30 N Ritchies Star…B Haslam Hcp…3/1

    Mike..

    michael dennis 05/02/20 6:04 PM Reply


  • Anyone know any info on Topflight Racing Syndicate keep getting text message,s off them thanks

    willie04 05/02/20 6:48 PM Reply


    • Willie 04

      I did as well, looked them up found very little, it looks a scam to me I would avoid them if I were you.
      Its not listed in the racehorsesyndicate website.

      Mike

      michael dennis 05/02/20 11:05 PM Reply


    • Avoid. I will say no more.

      Martin Colwell 06/02/20 9:30 AM Reply


    • I would personally assume any text as some sort of scam! I can’t think they’ve got your number legally, esp with GDPR etc these days. But that’s just me.
      Sounds like something to avoid.

      Josh 06/02/20 9:54 AM Reply


  • I have an expected losing streak of 31. I’ve just had 29 losers in a row, my longest yet. Plenty in the high teens. I didn’t worry about it as it was to be expected! I did a little bit if I’m honest but it’s only 4 days and it ended with a 20/1 shot which is more than I could of hoped for. I expect the next one to be a little longer and to end with a 3/1 shot!!!
    I just think it’s really important to roughly know how bad it can go sometimes before panicking or questioning the methodology too much.

    Chris Albin 05/02/20 9:25 PM Reply


    • Losing runs to occur even for the best. Are you looking at your methodology for selections? I would give that some thought. You are always allowed to tweak things. Good luck.

      Martin Colwell 06/02/20 9:29 AM Reply


      • I back my systems blind whist monitoring their performance over time or volume and tweak or put them on the naughty step as I see fit without a kind of knee jerk reaction to a run of losers.

        handbag 06/02/20 10:14 AM Reply


  • Poor day today
    Crazy prices 2.40 Chelm
    The King´s Steed 25/1 second here in previous race 9-3-3 on course won by half lenght against today fav Channel Packet.Very talented jock 7 off
    And class Lunar Deity 20’1 on winning mark second in his previous race

    HUNTINGDON 3.05 Colonial Dreams 5/1
    Henderson Horse.Poor lto run but it was first run after break and on heavy
    15.40 Stonebrigg Legend, 10/1 solid ew bet with chance to win

    Pab 06/02/20 12:09 AM Reply


  • The 3-05 Huntingdon looks a fascinating race ,, with question marks for different reasons over the top 3 in the market i thought i would have a closer look at the 2 class horses in the race both coming back after lengthy lay offs . Messire Des Obeaux had a great 16/17 season with 3 wins and 3 places from his 6 starts culminating with 2 3rds at Aintree and Cheltenham in G1 novice hurdles but 6-1 looks a bit short for a horse that hasn’t run in nearly 3 years and he holds an entry in the Stayers hurdle at Cheltenham so this could just be to put him right for that, the other is Virgilio 10-1 who has been off the track for well over a year and had been Chasing very successfully for the 3 years prior to break, did win 3/5 hurdle races and is on the same mark as his last win in this sphere back in Dec 15 in a C2 at Aintree over 2m4f and i’m always a bit wary when the Skelton’s throw a bit of a curve ball, doesn’t hold a Cheltenham entry so could very well be in it to win it. Looking forward to watching this one unfold.

    martin whittle 06/02/20 7:35 AM Reply


    • Virgilio is out to 40-1 and i just can’t leave him alone at that price but just a little £2 ew

      martin whittle 06/02/20 11:51 AM Reply


  • You lucky people……I am bringing back the system I had for racing in North America. I have been testing the new version for a few months and it is working well.

    I will post up the selections here once only every evening between 5 PM and 8 PM. You need to get on at the early price as the SP will be significantly less. So you need to keep an eye out for them as the prices will go and the racing on the East Coast starts around 6 PM UK time.

    You need to stick with it as it makes a good profit over time.

    Martin Colwell 06/02/20 9:35 AM Reply


    • Thanks Martin…

      Can you play on the exchanges with these?

      It’s hard keeping accounts open on UK racing – I can’t think wading into American racing and smashing SP consistently is going to please our bookie friends too much?? 🙂 If ever there was activity to highlight your account to them I would think it’s this sort of thing – betting in markets where they may think you’re a shrewdie, and certainly if beating SP consistently, and substantially.

      I have the same views with French racing and Hunter chases, esp if betting early and snaffling prices way bigger than SP when traders etc have clearly made a balls up simply because they don’t know the markets that well – any betting from UK accounts on such things always makes me think your account could have a shorter life span than normal.

      That could be nonsense mind, you any thoughts on that? If you’ve been backing them yourself, have you noticed anything?

      Best of luck as always and anything posted is always of some value – if it’s a systematic approach, any pointers on the reasons for selections (without revealing all the rules if sensitive obviously) that would be even better.
      Josh

      Josh 06/02/20 9:51 AM Reply


      • You can go n the exchanges but the volume is not so great. It depends on your stakes.

        I tend to find that Bet365 and Betfair let you do these bets and you do not get restricted. Do not go mad. Go £25 max a race and they float along. Three months testing has not led me to any difficulties with those bookies.

        I will post up the prices available when they come through but if anyone wants to dabble on the exchanges they of course can.

        Martin Colwell 06/02/20 10:24 AM Reply


        • Thanks Martin.

          Gerald Finnegan 06/02/20 10:39 AM Reply


        • cheers mate, useful to know!

          Agree about that staking level – I think some can take the mickey too quickly, esp in markets like that – if you’re betting 50s/100 stakes for fun, esp early prices etc that smash SP – well your accounts are not lasting very long at all, even if they’re losing in short term I suspect.

          Sounds a reasonable approach – it would be interesting to see how they may do to exchange SP, but suspect if your early prices are beating SP plenty, they may not do that well.

          Josh

          Josh 06/02/20 10:51 AM Reply


  • COLINS BETS
    Chelmsford
    2.10 Channel Packet 3/1
    3.15 Sonnet Rose 8/1
    3.50 Verne Castle 9/2

    FAVOURED
    2.40 Chelmsford Mohareb 5/2
    4.04 Doncaster Bannixtown Glory 7/1
    Colin

    cleafe 06/02/20 10:30 AM Reply


  • Two for this afternoon from Hendo:

    3.05 Huntingdon, Settie Hill, 1 point each way at 11/1. Been off for a while but if they are to find a race for him at the festival he needs to go well here.

    3.30 Doncaster, Buzz, 2 points win at 7/4. he has to win here to be given a go in a race at the festival.

    Good luck.

    Martin Colwell 06/02/20 12:28 PM Reply


    • Thanks again Martin, some great tips from you this month.

      Steve Goodall 06/02/20 7:44 PM Reply


  • MONTHLY GUEST TIPS (Feb: 0/12,1p = -14.6)

    (email received 11.45 – apols, 30 mins later than planned – distracted by betfair hurdle trends!)

    Recommended:

    1:31 Hunt – 2pts win Thomas Shelby @ 11/4 (SkyBet, SportingBet, Betway) UP
    3:05 Hunt – 1pt win Messire des Obeaux @ 15/2 (general – 8/1 in places) UP

    Total staked 3pts

    ———————————————

    Thomas Shelby (1:31 Huntingdon) was a point-to-point winner last year for Gerald Bailey, and although his debut under rules for Gerald’s wife Caroline was disappointing, he was much improved when winning in fine style at this track in December, and although now a nine-year-old, he’s pretty unexposed after just three starts over fences, and his sound jumping should stand him in good stead once more. Mrs Bailey was on the mark at Market Rasen on Tuesday with another of her small team of chasers, and she can strike again while the horses are in good form.

    The handicapper has been kind to Messire des Obeaux (3:05 Huntingdon), who was one of the best novices around in 2016/17, winning the Grade 2 Winter Novices’ Hurdle and the Grade 1 Challow before finishing third to ill-fated pair Willloughby Court and Neon Wolf in the Neptune at Cheltenham. Rated 146 then, he returns from a tendon injury with the handicapper having dropped him to 140. Alan King has entered him in the Stayers Hurdle, and has had him back in training for some time, with this race as the initial target. As is the case with horses coming back from such injuries, King will be sure to have him 100% fit if not race sharp, as there is no better way of re-injuring a horse than running them when carrying condition and unfit.

    Brillare Momento (2:55 Doncaster) hasn’t achieved quite what she might have, especially as she looked such a good prospect when winning a Listed hurdle at Cheltenham in April 2017. She’s needed a couple of breathing operations which may explain why her career hasn’t quite taken off, but she has fallen to a lenient mark as a result, an returning from a break is the time to catch her. Since joining Martin Keighley, Brillare Momento has returned from breks of three months or more on several occasions, producing form figures of 2113, with the last effort coming in a handicap off 138. Having had a poor time of things last season, she comes back here rated 127, and she can score off that mark assuming Keighley has her tuned up, which history suggests she will be.

    Buzz will be all the rage in the BetSafe Novices’ Hurdle having made a winning debut at Taunton, and the winner has gone on to land a Grade 2 juvenile at Cheltenham, but that does not mean that the form is especially strong, and this classy ex-Flat handicapper made hard work of winning in a modest time. He may be worth opposing with Glory And Fortune (3:30 Doncaster) who achieved at least as much when third in a Listed hurdle at Haydock on his penultimate start, and was totally unsuited by the way the race panned out at Cheltenham last time behind the promising Chantry House. He can do better, and is arguably the form pick on those runs in any case.

    Regards,

    Rory

    Josh 06/02/20 12:32 PM Reply


  • I may have missed this in various posts previously but why are certain race meetings going off at odd times? Is it a charity initiative or something to do with bookies and TV etc?

    Apologies if this has already been asked and answered

    Thanks

    Ben

    921389 06/02/20 2:33 PM Reply


    • Industry led I think , i think primarily to avoid clashes both here and when meetings in Ireland etc – worked well on Sat or Sun when first tried from memory, only 1/2 races overlapped – obviously benefits everyone inc bookies I imaging. I believe it’s a trial but seems to be working well. Something we will have to get used to but i’m all for it if it avoids clashes.
      Josh

      Josh 06/02/20 2:38 PM Reply


      • Thanks Josh,

        That’s a good idea on the proviso that races go off at post time. It seems to me that they are so relaxed about going off on time that a minute here or there wouldn’t seem to make much difference.

        Thanks for answering the question anyway. Makes sense.

        Cheers

        Ben

        921389 06/02/20 2:54 PM Reply


  • By the way as I am posting I just want to echo previous comments from last week about this site. Great insights, friendly debate, sound reasoned advice and tips, good banter and some really useful stats all for the price of an overpriced coffee per week is, frankly, a no-brainer.

    It is perhaps right that you take a look at your tips and methodology as editor-in-chief but I’m sure it will come good and as previous posters have said it is your honesty and integrity which flow through this site that people sign up for and stay signed up and I’m sure this will remain true through this period of introspection.

    Roll on the festivals and a few successful darts here and there to boost your own confidence but I am sure I speak for many that as things stand you can be fairly sure about your core customer base remaining loyal.

    Cheers

    Ben

    921389 06/02/20 3:07 PM Reply


    • Thanks Ben, much appreciated.

      Oh i mean obv I think there’s plenty packed in for the fees etc – but it’s up to members to judge their experience over time against their own benchmarks – and all will be different – but I’d expect my tipping to be some aspect of that and it’s generally been a woeful few months – I have high standards in my own head, and my own drive on that front is the puzzle solving etc – it will all click. Those who judge their experience within 3-10 days (and that’s plenty of them!) will never find a service for them really, but that’s just how it goes. 5 losers in a row is enough for plenty of people before they head on elsewhere 🙂

      I just need to find more people like you, and the core- who in truth haven’t gone anywhere for quite some time which i’m grateful for – but I can’t take that for granted – 2020 cannot be a repeat of 2019, but then again I do enjoy that sort of pressure, most of the time! You’ll always get everything else you mentioned in these parts, and from me, but just the official tipping needs to up it’s game and all will be right in the racing world.

      Times like this are frustrating – that Donny race- well I can’t believe the SP of the winner and if he’s 6s+ this morning we have a winner there, but not at 5/2 – but I take confidence in my own head from how I read him/the race etc – in part about being more patient and the weekday racing is awful at times – I may be feeling the pressure to get involved in races during the week for the sake of it and prob need to work on that. When I read a race like I did at Sandown on Sat I know it’s all there in my head – just pulling it together.

      I am looking forward to the Festival week +140 odd in last 3 years I think inc Midlands National – last year a losing one officially but the ‘through the card’ did well, +36 – i enjoy the challenge – maybe i am just saving it all up for March! But a few winners/being in profit beforehand would help.

      Josh

      Josh 06/02/20 3:20 PM Reply


  • Very enjoyable today from the site josh really liking it most impressive and professional the best I’ve tapped into by miles.

    Ian Phillips 06/02/20 5:47 PM Reply


    • Oh you’re a good man Ian. Always professional in these parts, well I try and you’re free to politely tell me when otherwise!
      The S3As not doing too bad. Had a mediocre of just about profitable time last year, 2018 was very good +75 and maybe they will rise again!
      Happy with how I read donny race, a game of price and I know in myself if that winner was his SP this morning we’d have had a winner so I’ll cling to that!
      Plenty to get stuck into and if you like thinking about the game yourself etc hopefully a place you’ll think of as a racing home! We plough on. Josh

      Josh 06/02/20 7:45 PM Reply


  • North American racing:

    The old Enigma decoder has not thrown anything out of value this evening.

    Back tomorrow.

    Martin Colwell 06/02/20 7:29 PM Reply


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