Members Daily Post: 05/02/20 (complete)

Best of blog x1, Section 2 (complete) , test zone

1. My Tips

2.Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.General messages/updates/new reports etc

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1. My Tips

Daily Chase Tips Main (2019: 24/165, 49p +16.8 ) Jumps Festival Tips (2018:+143; 2019: 6/99,27p, -45.8,)

Daily Chase Tips: Main (2020: 2/27,5p, -14.8)

(handicap chases, 2m7f+, C4+)

None – no race types of choice. 

 

Best of The Blog? (test: 1/15, 6p; -6.5)

2.45 Lud – Bonza Girl – 1 point win – 9/1 (bet365) 17/2 (WH/BV/UniB) 8/1 (others) UP 5/1,

that’s all for this test today, as of 08.33, write up at bottom of post…

 

2.Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

JUMPS

Ludlow

2.45 – Bonza Girl (HcH) 9/1 UP 5/1 

 

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Please Read: All information regarding the members club and how to engage in the content, what all the red symbols mean etc. Inc contact info, research articles and much more can be found HERE>>>

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3.Micro System Test Zone

Monthly Trainers

(2020: 11/31, 16p, +28.68 BFSP) 

Paul Nicholls (any, 8/1< best) 

3.15 Lud – Dr Sanderson H3 11/2  2nd (prob given too much to do/bumped into one/still learning – he seemed to settle/jump well enough, more prom ride may help- not sure anything beating winner on day though) 

4.45 Lud – Not A Nail 9/1 UP 16/1 

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4.General messages/updates/new reports etc

Micro Monday post HERE>>>

Tracker Tuesday Post HERE>>>

Cheltenham Ante-Post Chat: HERE>>>

Results Update Jan 2020 HERE>>> (i need to update with the ‘monthly trainers’ figure since start of Sept but that’s not 60+ I think, and they’re ticking along this year so far as above)  Those ‘monthly trainers’ look worth following systematically, starting off small and with any luck building up over time, provided my research continues to do the job, and within any month we can judge if trainer is in form etc, obv the Smith/Nicholls strings are firing at moment. 

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Bonza Girl…

One from the TTP section 2 qualifiers today in my ‘best of the blog?’ test…

9s, 17/2 seems big here, IF she’s here to run her race on first start after a wind op. She clearly wasn’t herself at Fontwell and connections obviously thought there was an issue – they put a TT on her that day for first time which makes you wonder if they’d heard something at home/had a concern – the subsequent op may suggest as much. Anyway, she returns here with her trainer in fine form and runs in the race she won last year – that could be significant and suggest she’s a1 here. She isn’t the biggest and I doubt takes much to get fit at home, but we shall see. Conditions are ideal and she’s won fresh before. She also has a bit of pace to track in Liberty Bella. She does need to step forward again which is the question, given she’s 6lb above her last winning mark when accounting for claims, but she’s only 7 and at this price you can ‘assume’ there could be more to come – given her size it could be that there isn’t but plenty of her races have produced subsequent winners and she was highly tried last back-end after a tough enough season – the ground at Donny/Chelt wouldn’t have suited either. She likes winning, she’s tough and I suspect would out-battle most of these in a scrap. It’s just whether Jeremy has her a1/she runs her race – if she does she’s no 17/2 shot and should be thereabouts.

She is open to attack from something with fewer handicap miles on the clock/more in hand – Liberty Bella is interesting but does have the odd question in a handicap now also from this mark, but is lightly enough raced. Oriental Cross is a big mare and it could happen a bit too quick around here with her usual hold up style, having slogged it in heavy at Sandown when last seen – she must have had a tough race there given the break but could be a danger. The Alan King horses are a bit hit and miss at the moment and her last two races are a combined 0/28 for those to have run since , so hardly ‘hot form’ etc – and she shaped in those as if she wants further than this, 77 days off – but hncp h debut. 11/2 didn’t look overly generous.

Getaway Totherock could be the most interesting but is priced up as such – she’s unexposed on handicap debut – her Novice hurdle win – that was the same CD as Bonza Girls win, on officially softer ground – she ran that 9 seconds quicker than Bonza’s race – it’s hard to know if that’s a true reflection as they didn’t go quick at all visually in Bonza’s win, and GTs novice fell apart somewhat here – 0/8,1p those to have run since. The Newbury run was ok – she did look green under pressure there having just watched it back, and does have questions at the price now I think. But, there should be more to come in theory from this mark.

So, fingers crossed for a big run. My ‘test’ is yet to hit top gear but the stats content continues to find plenty of winners, my subjective eyes just need to land on a few more – hopefully some of you may be doing a better job!

Josh

 

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

16 Responses

  1. After watching more closely i am going to bet on E Wiliams Night Of Sin
    He was 4.7 second to Town Parks LTO here .TP is 6lb more today but still can win

    2.45 is very interesting race and a little enigmatic will watch price action if have a time

    1. Bonza Girl is after break what can be healthy for that horse after wind op
      Drinks Interval has good chance and there is Dinos Benefit who was 0.2 L second to BG one year ago. BG looks like out of form but one year ago was also out of form.So my primary selection is BG second one is DB
      And Red Gunner Wolves

  2. I agree there with Bonza Girl won the race last year excellent T/J strike rate have they targeted this race could well be.

    1. that poor mare, the weight of expectation could be too much ! 🙂 fingers crossed, 9s/8s does look a tad insulting. Time will tell.

  3. on a very poor day’s racing my only proper bet is the one mentioned already Bonza Girl L2-45, i did think in the 13:30 Southwell
    Big Time Maybe was overpriced and have had £2 @ 23.0

  4. COLINS BETS
    No bet

    FAVOURED
    3.30 Southwell Directory 5/2
    8.10 Wolverhampton Queen Of Silca 3/1

    Wise decission to have Monday and Tuesday off, the computer course very intence and no time for agreed to finish at 4 rather than 5 so only 30 min lunch, thought it was the basic course but it is a higher level so finding it hard eye balls out on stalks, tutor says should be okay however i have doubts.
    Tuesday hard up 5.45 am and arrived home 11.30 pm because of dancing night in a nutshell knackered!!!
    Colin

  5. MONTHLY GUEST TIPS (Feb: 0/10,1p = -11.6)

    (email received 12pm, posting 12.15)

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    Recommended:

    2:45 Ludl – 1pt win Bonza Girl @ 11/2 (Ladbrokes, Marathon – 5/1 fine) UP
    3:15 Ludl – 2pts win Elixir de Gouet @ 8/1 (general) UP
    2:30 Sout – 1pt win Equidae @ 10/1 (SkyBet, BetVictor, Paddy Power) UP

    Total staked 4pts

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    Bonza Girl (2:45 Ludlow) was surprisingly fitted with a tongue tie on her reappearance at Fontwell in November, and the reason soon became clear, and she seemed to struggle from a fairly early stage, not looking like the mare who completed a five-timer in this corresponding race last season, and confirmed after the race to have had a breathing problem. She has subsequently undergone wind surgery, and it’s notable that Jeremy Scott has brought her back for this particular race. She is now 4lb higher than for that win, but only 3lb worse off with runner-up Dino’s Benefit. Her third to Papagana in a Listed race at Doncaster looks much better now than it did at the time, and a creditable effort at Cheltenham in April shows her fairly treated.

    Elixir de Gouet (3:15 Ludlow – Nap) failed to acclimatise having joined Venetia Williams in the autumn of 2018, the son of Vision D’Etat having already had a fairly busy time of it in France for trainer Thomas Fourcy. His second at Carlisle in the spring is dubious form, and his season on British soil was one of underachievement. This is not at all unusual when an ex-French horse has no downtime between two seasons racing in different jurisdictions, and he is likely to get a lot closer to his useful French form with the benefit of a long break.

    That is true in general terms, but especially so in the case of Venetia Williams, who has an excellent record in handicap chases with horses returning from an absence. If you backed all such horse who had been off the track for six months or more in the past eight years, you would have won 51 out of 276 bets, and had you backed such horses at SP for a tenner each time, you would have netted a handsome profit of £1,203.80. That figure is achieved despite none of the winners going off at bigger than 20/1, and has shown a profit in seven out of the last eight years. Given those stats, it seems prudent to give Elixir de Gouet – who has dropped 10lb since his first start in handicaps – another chance.

    On the all-weather, Equidae (2:30 Southwell) is interesting in the Bombardier “March To Your Own Drum” Handicap, having dropped to a decent mark. The five-year-old entire was a winner on his only previous start on Fibresand, and has dropped below that winning mark after a few lesser efforts at Newcastle, which is not a suitable given his run style. He was far too free to get home over 1m last time, but the return to this surface and the drop to seven furlongs are both valid catalysts for a return to his best, and the Iain Jardine-trained son of Equiano should give backers a much better run for their money.

    Regards,

    Rory

  6. I really don’t like doing this but i’ve got some “info” this morning that the John Spearing trained Shuthegate L1-45 which is owned by one of his assistants is expected to run well , has put in some good work at home and schooled well over hurdles not expected to give Langer Dan i fright but they are hoping to nick a place @ 250-1+, do with that what you wan’t your all adult’s i take these things with a pinch of salt but have had a £1 ew @ 320-1

    1. He beat four home and so not so bad for a 250/1 shot.

      Prep run for the festival??????? Smiley face.

      Good luck to the owners, not a cheap game to be involved in.

    2. Depending on who your source is (hopefully they may actually know assistant personally or something) may be worth keeping an eye on for handicaps down the line – always a positive if showing something at home – but of course that’s outwith any assessment of oppo – that was a bloody deep novice, 2 of them already had official ratings of 125 + 135 – would have been some prospect to get close to those.
      But i’d add to a tracker, you never know! he’s related to winners, but clearly taken some time to come to hand.

  7. I may have missed this in various posts previously but why are certain race meetings going off at odd times? Is it a charity initiative or something to do with bookies and TV etc?

    Apologies if this has already been asked and answered

    Thanks

    Ben

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