Members Daily Post: 04/02/20 (complete)

Tip x1, Section 2 (complete), test zone

1. My Tips

2.Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.General messages/updates/new reports etc

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1. My Tips

Daily Chase Tips Main (2019: 24/165, 49p +16.8 ) Jumps Festival Tips (2018:+143; 2019: 6/99,27p, -45.8,)

Daily Chase Tips: Main (2020: 2/27,5p, -14.8)

(handicap chases, 2m7f+, C4+)

2.45 MR – COUGARS GOLD – 1 point win – 3/1 (gen) UP, poor effort and obviously the 12yo beats the 11yo.  Not many positives there – he did beat the other 3 at top of market but they were all poor. Moving on. 

that’s all for main tips today as of 08.48, write up at bottom of post…

 

Best of The Blog? (test: 1/14, 6p; -5.5)

None today.

 

2.Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

JUMPS

Market Rasen

2.10 – Landofsmiles (HcH,micro age) H3 I3 G3 9/2 S4 UP

2.45 – Smuggler’s Blues (all Hc’s) w2 I3 9/2 UP

3.50 – Lady Master (m class) H3 G3 9/2 WON 9/2 

 

Sedgefield

1.25 –

Bertie Blake (HcH) w1 H3 I3 G3 11/4 S4  WON 11/4>10/3 

Phantom Isle (HcH) G1 50/1 S1 UP

1.55 – Sincerely Resdev (HcH) G3 8/1 WON 8/1> 9/2 

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TTP Chase Micros 2019/20

3.50 MR – Robin Gold (any) 4/1 UP

4.35 Sedge – Two Hoots (any) 14 H3 G1 4/1 UP

 

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Please Read: All information regarding the members club and how to engage in the content, what all the red symbols mean etc. Inc contact info, research articles and much more can be found HERE>>>

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3.Micro System Test Zone

Monthly Trainers

Sue Smith (Jan/Feb, 7/22,11p, +15 BFSP)

3.00 Sedge – Valence DAumont (any) 6/ 1 WON 6/1> 8/1 (10.6 BFSP) 

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Chase Angles 2019/20

Trainers

3.50 MR – The Crazed Moon (any) I3 14/1 2nd 

LTO winner starting points (12/1<)

2.45 MR-  Balgemmois  H1 9/4 UP

3.50 MR – Quantum Of Solace H1 I1 G1 9/4 3rd

LTO winning trainers

3.00 Sedge – Ouro Branco (12/1< guide) H3 I3 G3 5/2 UP

 

Jockey Angles 2019/20 

2.45 MR – Cougars Gold (17/2< guide) H3 I3 10/3 UP

3.50 MR – Lady Master (17/2< guide)  H3 G3 9/2 WON 9/2 

 

4.General messages/updates/new reports etc

New Micro Monday post HERE>>>

(first foray into Festival stats)

‘Tracker Tuesday’ post will follow by lunchtime.

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Write up…

Cougars Gold… I concluded 3s was fair here as I thought it was a 4 horse race and that his chance is greater than 25% – time will tell whether that judgment proves correct but I thought he’d be entitled to be 2s in this line up – he ran well 12 days ago possibly over a trip too short, and definitely at a track too tight – that was in a much better race than this though and he now both drops in class, moves back up in trip and returns to a track where he’s won. I also thought Sean will be aggressive and there was a chance he gets an easy lead, and could try and stretch them. That’s the plan anyway. ‘Miraculously’ they’ve got his mark down 6lb since his seasonal return and now he’s back on his last winning mark. He’s 0/5 at C3 so should appreciate these conditions. There’s a chance the Bowen yard is about to burst into life also having been quiet over the deep winter season (as is often the case) – their Lord Bryan nearly won that chase at Taunton, and the selection did run well 12 days ago, staying on. I suppose there’s a question over whether this comes too quick but he’s won after 18 days before over fences and i’d prefer a shorter break than a longer one. 

He’s got some solid form to his name and his return at Exeter was decent – won by Cap St Vincent who franked it on Sunday. The race did fall apart a bit but Keep Moving would have been in front of him if not falling late, and he’s won since. There’s been various excuses since – mainly the yard being quiet I think, and of course he may have not been a1, in order to get the mark down – two starts ago they removed the TT/put blinkers on, which prob didn’t help. The front two LTO were unexposed and arrived in form and were 122/125 horses, the 3rd was in form also. He’s achieved the best of these over fences I think. 

I think this is about whether he runs his race, as the rest could be in trouble. I could have left it ‘oh he’s too short’ but concluded that if he won this well at 3s, which I think is likely, i’d be rather annoyed. I need to stop having strict  ‘when I play’ ‘rules’ in a game that should have none, especially in smaller field races. Of course when he UR at the 3rd i’ll be cursing 🙂 

Of the rest…

Well he is open to attack from younger/less exposed legs, but I didn’t rate them really, not at the odds…

Balgemmois should run his race again and shaped LTO as if he may relish this trip. That wasn’t a great race, he was held up a bit there and I just thought the selection could have more class/will definitely stay – he does have that to prove. 

As does Smugglers Blues – 9/2 may prove fair but he’s another 100+ days off, is usually ridden quietly and again he has stamina to prove – now he could improve for it and this 23f may be better than the 26f at Ludlow- where he didn’t look to stay there at all. I don’t really rate the form of his chase win and he does have questions to answer. Not enough there for me at 9/2 but he’s lightly raced over fences and unexposed over this trip – never a shock if they win. His profile/rest patterns/age suggest he’s had a few problems. 

Cuban Pete – the ground could be the reason for bouncing back to form here, and maybe going back RH,  but there’s a possibility that he’s best fresh – both his wins have been after 90+ days – the ground may well have been the issue the last twice and he’s unexposed – maybe Charlie will try being aggressive again but at 3s I thought he had a few questions now. IF he runs is race he could give Cougars a bit to think about though. 

I can leave the rest, a 10, 11, 12 year old and if one of them takes this all four above will have fluffed their lines. 

Pace wise… part of the reason for getting off the fence with Cougars at 3s is that I think Sean will try and make all, in any case he should be in the box seat/no excuses position if good enough. 

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

17 Responses

  1. First of all there was no bets today on any method, started my computer course today and it was very intense possibly signed up for the wrong course although the tutor said that i will be okay.
    Very little free time 30 mins for lunch so Tuesday i will not be putting anything up and this will be for 6 weeks.
    Colins bets will definetly stay from Weds.
    Honesty is always my game a divorce at 54 for which came out of with very little, and my son only stayed with her for 2 months aged 12 he came to live with me, and after 9 months lost my job so with my reduncey money decided to back the horses and it worked very well for 5 years till the bookies closed me down, so i do need an income and the horses is all i know, so with the success of Elite i have to promote my other methods when they are successful to earn money for i do have bills to pay.
    RTP have enjoyed it and many people on here and i will always put up any old methods i come up with and hope that you will make money on them, but cannot keep doing them for free and when other people are investing in them then it is not possible to continue putting them up.
    So Mon/Tues there will be no bets for 6 weeks.
    Guest tipster Elite for March should be okay for the course finishes on 10th March and either Neil or myself can forward the bets, for this morning was at the Newsagent for 6.15 and we are going to use BFSP in future having checked the returns this looks the way to go, and everyone achieves the same price.
    See you Weds
    Colin.

    1. Hi Colin. Your Tip Top and Aruba bets have been going great guns recently. Long may it continue.

      Whilst BSP may suit you and some others, would it be possible to put up the odds at the time you post? If I don’t pick up your tips till later in the morning, it gives me an idea whether the odds I can get have moved from the odds when you tipped it and whether it is still a value bet. If not, no worries.

      Good luck with the computer course. 6 weeks sounds like hell to me 🙂 and good luck in your tipping ventures.

  2. AW T/T

    1 winner Monday 9.14 bfsp our good friend Hot Hot Hot.

    4.50 K Sir Rodneyredblood…J Jenkins Dist…4/1
    8.00 K Luck of Clover…A Balding Cl…8/1

    Jan Figures

    with 190 bfsp 13w/74..prof 244.29…ROI 330.12%..Ref Hot Hot Hot win not hcp.
    with 80/1 sp 13w/74..prof 112…….ROI 151.35….As above
    w/out 12w/73..prof 55.29..ROI 74.71…. if not backed HHH.

    Not sure if anyone backed HHH at bfsp so reason for quoting it at sp.

    Mike

    1. Thanks for that Mike as always… I’ll put that order or merlot back in with Amazon after they cancelled the bugger.
      Those TTP Winter AW stats performing better than could be hoped for so far, just backing systematically. +55 BFSP isn’t to be sniffed at, with the bonus of the monster ‘non qual’.
      If that keeps a 16% SR it won’t fail to be profitable long term I doubt given no odds caps.
      We shall see how they continue to do for Feb/March to end of winter season but its starting to suggest that the template/approach I used could be the way forward for Flat Turf 2020 in section 2. Combine that with a few test zone angles for Flat and my usual ‘big meeting notes’ /trends etc that could be a good basis for the summer.
      Hopefully that hasn’t put mockers on them now but time will tell!
      Thanks again for posting/monitoring. May have to make them more ‘official’ next winter at this rate.

  3. Some kamikadze bets for tomorrow
    2.10 MR Viva Vittoria,16/1 won here 0n good at 116 today 117 with jock 10l off
    First try on distance .Had very poor last two races but first was after PU second C3 on heavy. Very close second one year ago on her third start of season today will be her third start of season. VV has best P/L figure in that race.If jock will be able to manage and VV will stay on distance then VV can win
    Second horse that race is Landofsmiles,however staying without win long time

    4.20 MR ver poor conditional hurdle race my bet is Fergal horse BALLYHOME CD winner 1 lb higher today 8/1.
    very good FU stats PP in his last two races but he was chasing at the end of season.Back to hurdle with his jock Connor Brace and nice price

    My third is so much kamikadze .3m 3f c5 hurdle at Sed
    Lammturner,11/1 i hope will be better prce. CD winner on soft.Running with or 80 won with 76
    My secret in that race is Agent Louise 66/1
    Two times CD winner last win march 2018 two time UTT winner
    Life is crazy if that horse will bounce back to his old form
    Can”t avoid small bet with 66/1

    1. I’ve done the same with Agent Louise Pab and stuck her in a EW L15 with 4-35 Sunny Ledgend, 2-10 Muthabir and 4-20 Our Dot’s Baby

  4. 4.35 Sedgefield Two Hoots is getting the attention in this one but I think trainer Sean Curran shouldn’t be over looked has an impressive strike rate over the last 14 days he sends out Robin De Brooke who finished 2nd of 7 lto beaten by 6 lengths slightly bigger field with blinkers on and the positive booking of Brian Hughes signs are there for a big run and could well be the main danger at 5/1 .

    1. Old boy Sunny Ledgend finished 36l behind Two Hoots on his first run for 18 months is 11lb better off in this and i’m hoping he can finish a lot closer today, a nostalgic small ew at a big price.

  5. Hi, Just wanted to point out that 3.15 MR Mcfabulous (Nicholls), today is the 90th day since his second last run. So he has had 2 runs in ninety days. Tomorrow he would have had 1 run in 90 days and would have qualified under Josh’s Nicholls angle. Sorry to be nerdy but thought it worth pointing out. Cheers

  6. MONTHLY GUEST TIPS (Feb: 0/7,1p = -7.6)

    No Bets Today

    All three selections have shortened up too much, but here’s the write-up:

    Evan Williams joined an exclusive club when sending out his 1,000th winner late last month, and while he is a trainer who tends to stay fairly close to home, his runners are always of particular interest when travelling a long way from his Vale of Glamorgan base. With a winner on the board at Carlisle on Monday, Williams is again in search of distant treasure (I’m making Sedgefield sound a bit more exotic that it really is, aren’t I?) today, and has a sound chance of hitting the target with Sabbathical (1:25 Sedgefield) who has improved markedly for the switch to handicapping and landed a nine-runner handicap at Leicester last week by 15 lengths from Thoor Castle. He ground his rivals into submission there, and while margins can be misleading in the mud, it’s hard not to think that he’s well clear of his current mark, so it makes sense to turn him out quickly under a penalty.

    For a horse who stays well on the Flat, it’s taken connections quite a while to try Blue Hussar (2:15 Market Rasen) over a staying trip since hurdling, even when he was regularly getting outpaced over shorter. The gelding was again done for mid-race pace when beaten on his first attempt over three miles at Wetherby, but stayed on dourly to score over this course and distance last time, and should have more races in him now he’s racing at his optimum trip. He’s been raised to a mark of 115, but that’s very fair on the pick of his form, and it’s clear that he’s better than he’s shown more often that not over shorter trips. In an ideal world, he’d be racing at a stiffer track than Market Rasen, but that’s a harsh criticism of one coming off a C&D win, and he was rated 124 when first going handicapping in this sphere.

    Smuggler’s Blues (2:45 Market Rasen – Nap) could provide value in the Eric And Lucy Papworth Handicap Chase with his latest run at Ffos Las much better than it looks. He jumped out of his right at the West Wales course, but still looked the likeliest winner at the end of the back straight, only to weaken as a lack of fitness told. He was fourth to Warthog on his chase debut last term, and caught the eye a couple of times before winning at Bangor in the spring.

    Assuming fitness isn’t an issue here, he should prove better suited by this right-handed track that he was Ffos Las, and appeals as the sort to click sooner rather than later over fences. His jockey, the trainer’s son, is neither the most stylish nor a particular darling of the punters, and I’d hope we will get a fairly decent price about Tom George’s runner. His Bangor win saw him well ahead of subsequent winners Charlie Snow Angel and Lickpenny Larry, and he’s only had a handful of starts all told, so it will be disappointing if he doesn’t get back to that form at least.

  7. At least BALLYHOME won and he can repeat next race. Vittoria has to comeback on distance and has better jock Lammturner, 5th until next

      1. He had long break
        There are important stats showing horse rhythm
        Fu first run after break 2 fu second 3fu third etc
        it works i lost some bets on horses what had winning profile but for example 3u stats was like 5 runs 1 place 0 wins
        It is worth to watch hard on aw when horses running very often

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