Members Daily Post: 03/02/20 (complete)

Section 2 (complete), test zone

1. My Tips

2.Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.General messages/updates/new reports etc

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1. My Tips

Daily Chase Tips Main (2019: 24/165, 49p +16.8 ) Jumps Festival Tips (2018:+143; 2019: 6/99,27p, -45.8,)

Daily Chase Tips: Main (2020: 2/26,5p, -13.8)

(handicap chases, 2m7f+, C4+)

None, no races of choice, i’m trying to leave novice hncps alone. The 2.20 Carl isn’t the best race either, top rated a solid 99.

 

Best of The Blog? (test: 1/14, 6p; -5.5)

None, nothing below catching my eye at the prices.

 

2.Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

 

JUMPS

Carlisle

4.00 –

Longhousesignora (HcCh) H3 G3 3/1 UP

Hidden Dilemma (all Hc’s) 16/1 S2A 2nd 

 

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Please Read: All information regarding the members club and how to engage in the content, what all the red symbols mean etc. Inc contact info, research articles and much more can be found HERE>>>

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3.Micro System Test Zone

Chase Angles 2019/20 

Trainers

4.00 Carl – Holly Flight (11/1<) G1 7/1 

3.25 Carl – Dorking Cock (13/2<) H3 I3 G3  4/6 WON

 

LTO winners starting point (12/1<)

4.00 Carl – Haul Us In (12/1<) H1 I1 13/8 UP

 

4.General messages/updates/new reports etc

February Guest Tipster: Info/Intro HERE>>>

(Monthly Guest Tips will be posted in the comments below for now – Rory tips at lunchtime, so a comment from me will be posted anytime between 11.30-12.45 – his prices seem to hold firm) 

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Broadclyst was poor again and i’m now teetering on the cliff edge with him – problems in his head I suspect, or he’s feeling something they haven’t identified – JD never looked that happy. I’m not sure where they go with him now. If he were mine i’d probably move him to a better chase trainer but maybe that’s being harsh. The race had a ‘it may fall apart’ feel about it – Cap proving his stamina, just, and in that ground- I thought the combination may do for him, both unproven (hadn’t proved he couldn’t handle soft and stay – first run beyond 2m4f) but the slower pace seems to have helped him in what turned out to be a weak race, and he had form this season to do that- the Exeter win ok, Aintree run solid – Vaughan joins Jonjo in the yards i’m never destined to get right. The sort that makes more sense post race, as most winners do I suppose! Only two horses have run their races in the end. I’d probably take the Hobbs horse from it but i’ll watch it back again – I suspect he will come on bundles for that run.

One error with Cap, although not sure it would have convinced me… on closer inspection when digging in Geegeez Gold –   before that win, T Vaughan + A Johns + Taunton + Handicap Chases = 5/17,6p +18 SP, that’s now 6/18, 7p, +32 – last 5 years- i’d best save that angle somewhere – the sort of yard/angle where you may be best following it blind as a few prob don’t make much sense on paper. 

A profitable weekend for the main tips but a fair amount of work to do to get back on track. 

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

16 Responses

  1. My first look at tomorrow nightmare races
    Sleepy Haven C 4.30 i am not so much convinced
    nice shot at wolves can be Red Gunner.11/1 .Only one horse in that race who won or be placed on course best stats on distance .Minus is that he is top weighted
    Bod Angel 3/0 on course .So with that price i can risk small bet on RG
    Last race looks like Ember´s Glow is the best here but short in price
    Yasir can be ew bet

    1. RG is running after 14 days break his previous two poor runs were after long break what was not favorably for him

  2. AW T/T

    5.00 W Lyrical Ballad…N Mulholland Hcp…9/1
    6.30 W Bezzas Lad…T Carroll Dist…7/2
    Hot Hot Hot…T Carrroll Dist…11/1 ( the 190 bfsp winner 80/1 sp now in a hcp for the 2nd time)

    mike

  3. I share the same view as yourself today today josh not a lot to go on other than mymilan and that’s a possible with the form of Sandy Thomson.

    1. best of luck Ian – I rarely dive into novice hncps if I can help it even over 3m+, given the general unexposed nature of the horses – the sort of race type I suppose it can pay to be on top of point form etc – anyway – yep Mymilan is interesting – I didn’t think he stayed over 23f at Kelso, giving out late – dolled of the fences there which made it more of stamina test – at price i’d have a niggle about him getting up this hill but its more an unknown and I could be talking nonsense. Ballybreen has been transformed by blinkers/make all tactics but now up in class and stiffer track. I’ll keep a watching brief – had a look at 4pm given no. of stats quals etc above but looks competitive enough on paper to me. I’ll sit today out and start my Festival research!

  4. On a quiet day… The annual ‘Festival Ante-Post Chat’ post is now up for those of you who like to muse this far out! I know some of you like an AP portfolio etc so post away if you’ve any fancies or thoughts at this stage… (post will live in Free reports and systems tab but i’ll re post every week)

    http://racingtoprofit.co.uk/2020/02/03/apchat-2/

    Josh

  5. hi all,
    I make 4.30Car Mint Gold over priced in my book ,seems to need his first few races to get fit back to his only winning course again , in my tracker and looks an e/w bet to nothing for me .

    Great Site thank you
    se

  6. Josh, did I read somewhere that Colin would be on a computer course from today and his tips would be posted by you? Or have I got it wrong? Gordon

    1. Well you’re right he’s starting a computer course, i forget when but fact haven’t heard from him, maybe it is today!
      You’d think they will have a break for lunch so with any luck if it is today, they may appear soon.
      I’m not sure what a solution is after that in truth – I can’t promise to be sat here between 10-11am on X days ready to post etc – i’d hope he could get them posted evening before, but he uses a newspaper (other than RP I think!) as part of process for some of his angles I think, hence why prob has to be on day.
      So, i’m not sure how that will work –
      Josh

  7. 4.30Car Mint Gold
    Looks to be over priced to me
    normally takes a few runs to get fit
    Is in my tracker
    Has it’s only win registered to this course
    e/w bet to nothing for me ??
    I think will make an even better chaser later this Season ?
    Stable companion in as top weight in the Handicap ??? ( queue this one winning instead ) ha ha

    thanks
    SE

    1. Thanks for posting Brian – our new sofaking expert! – all thoughts, esp when with reasoning, welcome in these parts and appreciated – I have to approve new comments from 1st time posters, hence delay in first one going up –

      brave man tacking that hncp hurdle- looks a good old mix in there- note your one is having 1st start after a wind op – whether she’s got him ready we will see, but jockey is riding with confidence and given yard/what they’re bought for – chasing as you note- if he is a1, you’d expect him to just keep going when some of these may start going backwards. best of luck.
      Josh

  8. MONTHLY GUEST TIPS (Feb: 0/7,1p = -7.6)

    Email received at 12.00 –

    Recommended:

    2:20 Carl – 1pt win Mymilan @ 7/2 (general)
    4:30 Carl – 1pt win Xpo Universel @ 11/2 (Bet365, 888Sport)

    Total staked 2pts

    NB both horses bigger on exchange

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    Sandy Thompson has his Borders stable ticking over very nicely as spring approaches, and he should again be on the scoresheet at Carlisle on Monday. A winner at the track in December, Mymilan (2:20 Carlisle) looked well ahead of his mark for much of the race at Kelso last time, but after taking control before turning out of the back, he found the omission of both fences in the straight against him, wandering in front with nothing to jump, and mugged late on by Kings Eclipse. The feeling is that he would have won if held on to for longer, but more significantly, he would almost certainly have won if having something to jump, having impressed in that department throughout the race.

    The son of Milan is stepping up slightly in trip, which could be viewed as a negative, but for me the long run from what turned out to be the last fence at Kelso provided a sterner test than this race will, assuming all the fences are jumped. In truth, he belongs in a better class than this already, and is likely to improve considerably on what he’s achieved, so it will be a huge disappointment if he can’t complete the task set for him from a mark of 99, just 4lb higher than Kelso.

    Xpo Universel (4:30 Carlisle – Nap) showed last season that he could take a couple of quick races, winning handicap hurdles here and at Kelso within a week in December 2018, and he can strike while the iron’s hot having got back to winning ways at Sedgefield last time. He’s got more on his plate under a mandatory 7lb penalty for that win, where the race was arguably still in the balance when his nearest rival blundered his chance away at the last, but this looks a weak enough race for the grade and connections will be keen to turn the mudlark out quickly while they know he’s in top form. He gets on well with 7lb claimer Kane Yeomans who has been on the last twice, and a repeat of Sedgefield under ideal conditions should suffice.

    As far as the Dublin Racing Festival goes, there were plenty of Cheltenham clues, and a few shortened up for future targets. The horse who impressed me in terms of the future was Latest Exhibition, who won the Nathaniel Lacy and has a choice of the Ballymore or the Albert Bartlett next month, and strikes me as a big price for both. He can be backed at 12/1 in a place for the longer race, and 7/1 with a run with another firm, and I think that does not do him credit. He’s actually a much better jumper than he gets credit for, and for all he can miss one, he tends to get away from his obstacles very swiftly and that is a trait I always look for. I don’t think this fella needs three miles, but it may be that Paul Nolan believes the longer race is a better option than taking on Envoi Allen in the Ballymore. We shall see.

    Regards,

    Rory

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