Members Daily Post: 02/02/20 (complete)

Main tip x1 + write up, Section 2 (complete), test zone, various section 4 musings…

1. My Tips

2.Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.General messages/updates/new reports etc

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1. My Tips

Daily Chase Tips Main (2019: 24/165, 49p +16.8 ) Jumps Festival Tips (2018:+143; 2019: 6/99,27p, -45.8,)

Daily Chase Tips: Main (2020: 2/26,5p, -13.8)

(handicap chases, 2m7f+, C4+)

3.40 Taunt   BROADCLYST – 1 point win – 14/1 (gen) UP 10/1 – he never really travelled through that again, a moment down the back you thought he was coming into it but soon apparent he wasn’t – he’s not looking like franking that Winc form anytime soon – he has ability, just whether this yard can find the key. 

as of 08.28, that’s all for main tips today. Write up at bottom of post…

 

 

Best of The Blog? (test: 1/14, 6p; -5.5)

None.

 

2.Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

JUMPS

Musselburgh

3.20 – Traditional Dancer (HcH) G3 22/1 S1 S2A Refused (x3 now)

 

Taunton

2.05 – Ashutor (micro runs) 14,30  H1 I3 13/8 2nd 

4.10 – Astra Via (m runs) 14 12/1

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TTP Chase Micros 2019/20

1.15 Muss – Senor Lombardy 14/1 UP

2.40 Taunt – Seeanythingyoulike H3 I1 G1 4/1 UP

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Please Read: All information regarding the members club and how to engage in the content, what all the red symbols mean etc. Inc contact info, research articles and much more can be found HERE>>>

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3.Micro System Test Zone

Monthly Trainers

Paul Nicholls (3/6, +6.875) (any odds, 8/1< best)

1.35 Taunt – Brewers Project H3 I3 G3 5/6 UR

3.10 Taunt – Get The Appeal 9/1 UP

3.20 Muss – Highland Hunter H3 2/1 WON 2/1>10/11

4.20 Muss – Mortlach H1 I3 2/1 UP

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Chase Angles 2019/20

Trainers

1.15 Muss – Senor Lombardy (11/1<) 14/1 UP

 

Chase Eye-Catchers 2019/20

3.40 Taunt – Broadclyst (2nd run – hated CP/Warw LTO to my eyes, Worthy Farm franked Winc 2nd since)  I3 14/1 UP

3.40 Taunt – Truckin Away (1st run/Hot Form – Exeter race solid form – split Cloudy Glen and Worthy Farm in that race)  G1 9/2 UP

 

4.General messages/updates/new reports etc

February Guest Tipster: Info/Intro HERE>>>

(Monthly Guest Tips will be posted in the comments below for now – Rory tips at lunchtime, so a comment from me will be posted anytime between 11.30-12.45 – his prices seem to hold firm) 

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Sat review… A welcome big chase winner on Saturday – that one ticked plenty of boxes – unexposed over fences / in-form / ‘hot form’ / yard in form / trainer won race before / not a hold up horse / decent price  – a few more like him would be welcome. Deise Aba is a a fine staying chaser in the making by the looks of it, plenty more improvement to come. It may transpire it wasn’t a great race, many didn’t run up to form which was possible – Cloudy Glen ran like a horse who’s still chucked in – he’s a bit of a thinker- only consenting to run well when Charlie rushed him up, that effort eventually told – I think he stayed – but he could be interesting over 2m4/5f with an aggressive ride.

I’m happy enough with how I read the Edinburgh National – Little Bruce just wasn’t good enough, 4th behind Sumkindofking – that suggests he simply didn’t have the class, as he didn’t have any other excuse and the 1-2 did have form at a higher level – so, I got him wrong. I can live with leaving Bob M at 5s – a shame he wasn’t 7s/8s+ as i’d have been gutted to miss him at that price- he had to prove stamina, going RH – had jumped to left on prev RH chase runs, niggles over the tighter track and the yard had been very quiet – enough questions for a 5s shot to my subjective eyes but that form behind Boldmere LTO is now looking good (he’d have won at good race at Wetherby but for falling at the last). He had always shaped like a dour stayer but at least we’ve backed him once before when winning at Chelt- he has a mind on him also – another reason for wanting a bigger price imo, but is clearly talented. Interesting to see where they go next. 

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The ‘Monthly Trainers’ are ticking along – i’ll do a results update more generally early next week for Jan but since Sept 1st they must be on around +55/60 points now, and as a fun systematic approach to follow for fun stakes, £2.50s say, they could be worth some attention, although that’s probably given them the kiss of death.

If you’re new there’s plenty to flick through in the Welcome Post link above, inc loads of research reports/angles, some of which can be found in the Micro Monday tab on the left hand side (on desktop/tablet)

As a selection of reports you may be interested in, from the welcome post  >>>

  • Trainer Track Profiles: Winter All-Weather 2019/20: READ HERE>>>
    • Mike kindly posts the qualifiers in comments below if you like playing on the Sand.
  • Trainer Track Profiles: Jumps 2019/20 : READ HERE>>>
    • This report is the foundation for the Section 2 qualifiers above
  • Micro Monday article – how 4/1< SP shots perform in handicap chases: Read HERE>>>
  • Analysis of The Ratings Pointers win %/how to use them (as per Key in welcome post): READ HERE>>>
  • The Importance of Race Position in Handicap Chases: READ HERE>>>

Cheltenham Festival 2020…

Last year’s 30 pages of stats/trends/trainer pointers can be found HERE>>>

i’m not sure how useful they may be at this moment in time but i’ll be starting to research this year’s report soon, and the Micro Monday posts will now focus on The Festival during Feb, with a look at some trainers / jockeys etc.

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Write up…

Broadclyst – I found it impossible to leave him in this race at 14s and that more than makes up for the risk that he may not run his race. I tipped him two starts back at 12s, on the back of his unexposed profile and the strength of the form of his Chepstow 2nd over fences – numerous winners had come out of that, indicating he had some ability/the mark was workable for that sort of race – sadly for me the 1st blinkers worked a treat on Worthy Farm and he beat me. B got caught in a pocket behind a loose horse at Wincanton at the wrong time which didn’t help, losing a few lengths. Obviously Worthy Farm has since franked that form, (an error leaving him at 5s LTO) dotting up again and beating an in-form solid yardstick in 2nd, the rest well stuffed. All of that form reads well in a race like this – I just need him to repeat/build on that form – simple!

LTO never went to plan – he seemingly resented the 1st CP, never really travelled and was in no sort of rhythm at all – he didn’t jump the fences down the back well 1st time and made a bad error as they turned down the back for the final time- I think he lost confidence and just wasn’t at the races. It could be he’s a thinker/mentally immature still and he throws in the towel again – this could be over after 3/4f if James is busy in the saddle – but he will try and race him up there I think, and if he can just lob along at his pace, seemingly happy – we could have some fun on the turn for home. Clearly he’s got the ability/profile to win this race. His ‘master’ Inform speed rating is the best achieved by anything in this, for that Wincanton 2nd – to give some substance to the visual impression. There’s clearly nothing physically wrong with him given the quick return and Down does well at the track, and with horses returning 10< days (he’s 11 days) … 6/23,8p +24 SP in 5 years, 4/11,5p when James D rides. Here’s hoping.

Of the rest…

There’s nothing that would annoy me at the prices, which is the first question I ask in my final deliberations.

Darling Maltaix could hack up here – he could win this well given the overall strength of his form – but he can be keen and he’s only 1/17 in his career – a poor return given his latent ability – I don’t know if they will try to be aggressive again or will ride cold, as when winning at Ascot over hurdles- he just needs to switch off – if he does he should go well. He was behind Deise Aba in that Ascot race but he didn’t run great there- although this is much weaker on paper. Obviously the yard are in flying form again. But he’s 11/4 – I couldn’t wade in at that price given the questions and he’s the sort of profile I’m happy to take on.

Truckin Away would have interested me if bigger than 4s – his form is starting to read well inc that Exeter novice hurdle 2nd behind Danny Whizzbang and LTO in his 2nd chase – subsequent winners in and around him – he’s unexposed, and has the ability to take this – he didn’t run great at Exeter- he may have needed it but he’s since had a wind op, the TT stays on and 81 days off, suggesting it was major enough surgery I suspect/he had enough time off from his usual training routine. If A1 here and that op has done the job then obviously he could go close – but 4s just wasn’t enough for me.

I’ll live with either of those two winning at the prices, which one of them may well do.

I’m more than happy to leave the rest –

Shanroe In Milan is up 8lb to a career high and up in class, all his winning form at C4, and that Muss race he won was northern dross. But he tracks the pace and is in form! Ground is fine. So, maybe that will be enough today, as it’s possible others don’t run their race – but at 5s I could leave – him being 5s makes Worthy Farm at 5s on last start look monstrous imo and that’s something I need to improve on.

Shoal Bay is a summer jumper who wants better ground I think. We backed him when winning at Worc. I was happy to leave him, as I was As I See It who’s unexposed but too many questions, as there are for Quite By Chance and Lord Bryan.

Plantagenet  – niggles about his well-being and possibly wanting better ground – we backed him at Cheltenham when second, an error 2 out possibly costing him- he’s stuck on a career high mark also and needs more. His last win was off 114, with a 7lb claimer also, and the yard are still a bit quiet – although signs of life recently.  He’s had 58 days off, Seamus Mullins is 2/55 with his handicap chasers 60+ days off last 5 years, although this one has gone close fresh. IF he ran his race he could be in and around the places and a big run wouldn’t be a shock. But he is open to attack from something with more in hand I think. He is a CD winner though also.

Cap St Vincent – could still have more to come but his best form is on better ground, and he’s stamina to prove, the yard continue to blow hot and cold – it’s harder getting a Vaughan horse right than it is Jonjo’s I think! I wouldn’t completely fall off my chair if he ran well though, but not for me today.

So, Broadclyst will do – I just hope i’m not screwing up my betting slip after 2/3 fences, as that’s always annoying – but I can’t leave him at 14s for the reasons stated.

Pace wise…

James D wanted B to be up there last time and I suspect he will try to do so again, maybe kept wide in daylight, but not too far off the pace. He does just gallop when on song. Connections may go for a ‘give him confidence’ approach and potter him around out the back mind. Hopefully not.  He should be in a no excuses position, if here to win his race. Held up/mid div over this CD is not the place to be usually.

Josh

p.s… I’ll just be watching Leop again, and enjoying the racing – maybe a muggy £2.50 on the Battleoverdoyen/Kemboy double at 11/2 or so to pay for 2/3 pints next time I’m in the pub.  The heart/racing public would obv love to see Faugheen win and it would be some atmosphere if he does, but the head has to favour younger legs, surely?!

 

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

28 Responses

  1. My Leo Bets
    Black Tears at Opener 16/1
    Mt Leinster at 1.55 11/4
    22/1 Quartz Du Rheu 2.30 it looks like Mullins is serious about that horse
    My nap is Fitzhenry 10/1 at 4pm small place bet on Portmore Lough same place
    Very small punt place bet on La Bague Au Roi 33/1 i simply like that horse

    1. I do like 3 0f yours Black Tears,Quartz Du Rheu and Fitzhenry, have added Bellshill 3-30 for a small ew L15.

        1. Welcome back Pab! 🙂 Well done, top picking that. Superb.
          Martin – one more soon and you will be getting excited!

  2. Write ups follow later
    16:00 Leopardstown
    MOONSHINE BAY 1pt win 20/1 gen
    SHADY OPERATOR 1pt win 12/1 gen
    ARTICULUM 1pt win 16/1 gen

    write ups to follow.

    1. Ah, I thought they were just wrapped up as the ‘4/1 Offer Races’ and covered ITV races, and that race was the last on ITV, and the two 4/1 + Offer races today are 2.40 Taunt and 4.10 Taunt –
      But, if it’s just ITV races then yep, best wait until next week!

      1. You are correct James, just read the Ts and Cs, the last 4/1 Feature race was 5.45 Newc on 31st Jan – so if you had winner of that at 4/1s+ you’ve got a freebie on 2.40 Taunt, and anyone who backed my winner via ITV has to wait until next ITV live race – which does make sense!

  3. 16.00 Leopardstown Robin des Foret 15/2 e/w 6 places with PP – good 3rd at Cheltenham, then going best as they turned in last time, today’s shorter trip should suit GL

    1. Another e/w collection, drifts out to 10/1 and finishes 5th – I’m saving the winners for Cheltenham!

  4. NO BETS on any of my methods

    January’s Results
    Colins bets -1.25
    Tip Top + 14.25
    Aruba + 37.583
    Favoured – 13.167
    Max bets + 14.75
    Colin

  5. Fred, 2.15 Musselburgh, needs to win this to earn a trip to the festival, 15/8 now.

    Highland Hunter, 3.20 Musselburgh, can be another winner for Paul Nicholls at this meeting. 7/4 now.

    I like Blue Sari, 1.55 Leopardstown, looks good each way at 5/1.

  6. Another very poor days NH racing, so another true tale from me, this time football related.
    Must be 1974/75 went into the Hurt Arms Hotel Ambergate early doors and sat at the bar was Colin Boulton Derby County’s Championship goalkeeper along with his wife, just a nod of acknowledgement from me.
    Over the weeks started chatting and one Weds night he said that their was a Quiz night down at one of the Derby hotels and a few players had to attend, after onto Bailey’s nightclub to see the 3 degrees, thought my birthday had come early!!!
    Cut it short a party of 12 turned up at Bailey’s and they all got in free then the doorman looked at Colin and myself and said you 2 cannot come in no tie, those days the fashion was leather jacket and a polo neck jumper, anyway the chap who was in control of the party said to the doorman this Colin Boulton Derby County’s Championship winning goal keeper, had to smile at the doormans response do not care who the -uck he his not coming in without a tie.
    The leader of the party told us to wait and he just walked into the club, after a few minutes he returned and told us to follow the building round to the back and there would be a door ajar so we did get into see the Three Degrees free and they were fantastic.
    Another time met him in the Hurt Arms and he handed over my ticket for the European Cup Semi Final against Juventus, just paid him the face value.
    Had a few trips to the players bar at the Baseball Ground, sadly never met Brian Clough, this only lasted about 6 months for had signed up for the forces so lost touch, happy times while it lasted.
    Colin.

    1. I did meet Cloughie.

      In the late 70’s when Forest ruled Europe I was playing for Thamesmead Town in the Kent League and we went on a pre season tour (we had to pay for it ourselves) to Cala Millor in Majorca. We played Forest in a mini tournament (Lost 2-0) and Cloughie and Peter Taylor were on the touchline. He did not do much apart from shout at his team and ours. he did like a drink!

      1. I often frequented a pub in Wetherby many moons ago and when the much maligned Cloughie ( by Leeds senior players, f’kin dinosaurs) brought the much trumpeted Duncan Mackenzie to the club. His party trick at the time was doing a standing jump over a Mini. One starry, starry night, or should I say morning as it was well after 2.00am on a SATURDAY morning, whilst Bremner and co were slumped over the bar with a fag in the mouth, Dunc was taking fivers off all and sundry in the car park where there happened to be a Mini. Well over 200 quid for charity later he went home to grab a few hours sleep before facing Everton. He scored, Leeds played shit. Wonder why that was!!!!!!!!!

      2. Please do not mention Forest again Martin not on my watch, for it upsets my system especially for the first time in years they are above us in the table.
        On a serious note my age group all wanted Cloughie to succeed for Forest for we all held him in the highest esteem, and Derby should never have accepted the resignations of them both, big, big mistake.
        Clough was a confirmed alcholic.
        Colin

  7. When things aren’t going well on the results front & you’re feeling despondent, just remember that we also have great stories such as the above from Colin & Martin on this site to cheer us up. Priceless. Where else would you get this?
    Thanks fellas,
    Steve Whitelaw

  8. Hi All,

    So here are mine for today all 1pt EW

    13:30 T Royal Crown
    14:30 L Treacysenniscorthy
    15:40 T Shanroe in Milan and Shoal Bay
    16:45 T That’s Entertainment

    Good luck to all
    Cheers

  9. HASTRABAL 3.50
    Went straight into my alerts, after a very easy Victory LTO
    Should take all the beating. Short tho!

    1. Hmm I won’t put it down to that at price. He didn’t have a hard race LTO, more like a gentle gallop really, tailed off early. But you may be right.

        1. Horses are getting paid some money just for run.They have to make money for his owners even if trainer knows that they will have poor run
          Life is hard

          1. It’s easy with hindsight. That trainer knows what he’s doing with quick returners as per stats. You have to try and judge whether he had a hard race or not LTO and to my eye he didn’t. He is a chaser and may still be developing. Hasn’t had many chase runs and not enough to conclude what his optimum rest pattern is. That was his first time over fences with such a short turn around I think and as such you can’t say for certainty they won’t respond to it. You have to weigh up any questions against price. He was being niggled early as he was LTO. Its best not putting horses into a box of x y z etc. Some do conform to clear patterns, esp fresh, or needing x days. Some like returning quick etc.

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