Members Daily Post: 30/01/20 (complete)

Best of x1, Main Tipx2, Section 2 (complete), test zone

1.My Tips

2.Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.General messages/updates/new reports etc

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1.My Tips

Daily Chase Tips Main (2019: 24/165, 49p +16.8 ) Jumps Festival Tips (2018:+143; 2019: 6/99,27p, -45.8,)

Daily Chase Tips: Main (2020: 1/23,4p, -19)

(handicap chases, 2m7f+, C4+)

2.20 Winc 

POP ROCKSTAR – 1 point win – 11/1 (bet365/BV/Unib) UP/tailed off 16/1

CYCLOP – 1 point win – 14/1 (gen) PU 16/1 ,

woeful again, that was over very early as the market suggested it would be. Worthy Farm did make 5s looks good which is frustrating.

 

Best of The Blog? (test: 1/12, 6p; -3.5)

2.45 FL – Jammy George – 1 point win – 4/1 (gen) 2nd, ran well enough, no excuse – given how he jumps you wouldn’t want to be with him in a competitive handicap I don’t think, but winner did that a shade cosily come the line. Vaughan was 0/29,2p in last 30 days before today so maybe they could burst into life again soon.

 

2.Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

JUMPS

Ffos Las

1.35 –

Rooster Cogburn (micro going IF hvy) G1 (not ‘heavy’ so officially DNQ)

Khanisari (HcH) 40/1 

Ring The Moon (HcH) 3/1 

3.45 –

No Rematch (HcH,m TJC) ES+ 5/1 S3A WON 5/1

Alf ‘N’ Dor (m age) ES+ 8/1 S3A UP

Special Princess (m class) w2 ES+ 5/1 S3A UP

4.20 – Mouseinthehouse (m TJC) G3 15/2 WON 15/2>7/2 

 

Wincanton

1.45 – Misty Bloom (HcH) w2 14 7/1 UP

 

Limerick

4.10 – Cahirdown Boy (HcH) ES+ 14/1 S3A UP

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TTP Chase Micros 2019/20

2.20 Winc – Darlac (any odds) 7/1  UP

 

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Please Read: All information regarding the members club and how to engage in the content, inc Videos. Inc contact info, research articles and much more can be found HERE>>>

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3.Micro System Test Zone

Chase Angles 2019/20

Trainers

2.20 Winc – Darlac 7/1UP

2.20 Winc – Coningsby (13/2<) G3 12/1 UP

3.15 FL – Twasnt The Plan I3 G3 9/1 UP

Long Lay Off Trainers

3.25 Winc – Ibleo 10/1 WON 10/1>8/1 

 

Jockey Angles 2019/20 

2.20 Winc – Worthy Farm (any) H1 I1 9/2 WON 9/2>3/1 / Coningsby (17/2< guide) G3 12/1 UP

 

Chase Eye-Catchers 2019/20 

2.20 Winc – Wandrin Star (2nd run) 14/1 UP

2.45 FL – Jammy George (1st run) H1 G3 3/1 2nd 

 

4.General messages/updates/new reports etc

 

February Guest Tipster: Info/Intro HERE>>>

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2.20 Wincanton –

Pop Rockstar –  a lightly raced handicap chaser who won at Carlisle on his return this season as if there should be more to come. With the claims he’s 8lb higher here although Junior is probably a 3lb better chase rider now than in October. I don’t know what he beat there but his win in April is working out well enough – 7 other subsequent winners from that including thumping Broadclyst in 2nd who’s form ties in with Worthy Farm in this after LTO. His second at Chepstow in 2018 behind Bennys King is also working out well, and given his profile it’s hard to say with certainty as yet that this mark is beyond him. He has it to prove, hence wanting a decent price. The yard are in form, (for them, not that I can ever catch a Jonjo horse right) and do well here, and Junior is riding very well and is 4/13,8p at the course. The horse drops down in class and trip from a couple of G3s, inc the Welsh National LTO. That was his first run after a wind op and he went ok there until 5 out – he moved well – he may have over-raced a tad as is his want and stopped quickly enough, plugging on. This is much less testing ground and he may be sharper here. The other niggle is that they can ride him patiently but at 11s I’ll trust in his jockey – he seems to have some relative speed for a staying chaser. With any luck he sits just off the pace as you rarely want to come from too far back here.

Cyclop – he’s 9 and had more racing that most/all in here and doesn’t win too often but he’s starting to look chucked in against old form and will find a race at some point. Jack Tudor gets the leg up here and he’s 1/3,2p on DDs horses, inc one of his few wins this season. The yard have been under a cloud for an age but there’s been the odd sign recently, inc this one LTO on his first run over fences for a while, that they could be about to return to form. At MR he bumped into a well handicapped one there on first start for Pipe, the rest well stuffed. Very First Time was further behind and he bounced back at Donny winning a C4 in decent style. So, some substance there and with the 5lb claim he has nothing on his back here. With that and even with being out the handicap he’s now 10lb below his last winning mark. He’s got course form and may have won a Somerset National in the past but for capsizing four out when tanking. He also runs up there, and Jack may be aggressive on him – in any case he should be up there, not that he has to, but if he could get to the front at some point that would help. He is a C3 winner but does need a few to under-perform here but I thought that was possible and 14s looked worth a go.

Of the rest…

Moving In Style – I’ve given him enough goes and he keeps running his race/finding one too good – I do like any ‘Copperhead form’ as he could be a smart handicapper in the making, but he’s not really doing anything different here and I don’t know why STD isn’t on. James B doesn’t have the best track record as yet. It could be as simple as a repeat of LTO being enough but each of these runs  will take something out of him and you’d think he needs more. He has been running well but I couldn’t wade in at 11/4 or so and want to take him on. But he sets the benchmark on that run LTO and a repeat could be good enough.

Worthy Farm beat me here LTO into 2nd which was frustrating and I think, at the prices, that was the time to catch him in 1st blinkers. I just don’t know whether he will take to them again, he can jump out to his left a bit and on this ground/class they will go quicker, which may or may not find him out, up from a 0-125 to a 0-140 here today. I didn’t think he was overpriced but he may make what is now 5s look decent if he runs his race again, but that is the question, and he didn’t look the most straightforward LTO either. But, on paper he’s solid, he’s still unexposed (some questions over the form now though) and it’s Nicholls/Cobden. Clearly not a shock winner.

Plenty of these have it to prove from their handicap marks, and a few have form/well-being questions also, and have had short breaks. The likes of The Kings Writ (+13lb above last win) Conningsby (+9lb), Reikers Island (+8lb), Commodore (+10), One of Us (+4lb) have to improve again and I wasn’t sure they would – but Coningsby is lightly raced over fences (swaps Blinkers for CP, which is a Q given his winning form in blinkers, and the 54 days off) and Reikers Island- has ran well off 137 before, 132 today. Again I don’t really like the 69 days off or his last two runs – he needs more but maybe he will bounce back to form, and he may want better ground.

One of Us is a bit of a boat and needs some riding, again he’s now on a career high. I thought he may want further but he did win when last seen, although in a race that isn’t really working out now. He’s had a short break also.

Darlac is unexposed/lightly raced but now 0/5,0p and a few too many questions, Heskin getting the ride -they may just want him to have a clear round – but given his profile and his trainer, you can never fully write one off from them. But I was happy to leave him today.

Elan De Balme is just an unknown quantity from France, first run for Pipe. He has stamina to prove and hasn’t been shaping on his last few runs as if he wants it, and these French chasers can take a few runs/time to acclimatise. I’d be concerned if he’s well backed but he’s on the drift as I write. He is in the ‘could be anything’ category, and they can be dangerous. ‘The Professor’ doesn’t seem to own many bad horses in the Pipe yard and this could be one to watch moving forwards.

Wandrin Star has nearly doubled in price from the time I was pondering to now – he needs more from this mark, he may want further, the form of his win here isn’t really working out (possibly lucky also with last fence faller, who hasn’t done anything since) and the yard are a bit quiet – Bailey ran blood tests on everything last week I think given concerns over how they were running. The odd one has run well though so maybe nothing in it. He is best fresh but all of his form/places to date has been in the second half of the year – that price is looking a tad insulting now though, but he needs more. If they go hard here that would improve his chance.

So, we shall see. It does feel open enough I suppose but hopefully my two can run their races and that’s good enough today.

Pace wise… well I hope they’re aggressive with Cyclop – Sean may be up there with Coningsby as may Charlie on Commodore- there’s a few in here who could lead but who’ve been happy to track the pace also. I hope Junior doesn’t anchor Pop R right out the back, as that may be game over from the beginning.

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Best of the Blog test…

Jammy George – 4s has drawn me in here although he’s on the drift it seems. I still don’t know how he got so close LTO and in this beginners chase I wanted to be with him as I thought he look over-priced. They were aggressive with him at Newcastle when he came down early, and that may have dictated more patient tactics NTO, just to get him round. Gavin may try and be aggressive again here, and he shapes like a thorough stayer. That’s the question for Present Value, who did beat the selection over 19f in a hurdle race – but he does have stamina to prove and there are mixed messages from how he’s been shaping, but the yard are now in decent form and he is related to Paisley Park, so maybe he will relish it. He’s the money horse it seems. The rest have a few questions also. I thought this looked a good opportunity for JG, if he can jump/hold a position but if he runs his race, he should be staying on in what could be testing enough ground

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

15 Responses

  1. AW T/T

    1 winner Wed Hassaad 2.04 bfsp. Don’t spend it all in one bookies.

    3 for Thursday.

    1.55 S Frame Rate…I Jardine Hcp…9/2
    3.35 S Constitutional…K Burke Cl…7/2
    5.00 C Poetic Era…D Simcock Hcp…6/1

    Mike

  2. The 2.20 at Wincanton a nice race to have a go at folks
    Good pot good turnout now just to figure it out………

  3. The most interesting of K burkes entries at southwell is seize the time 1.20.Lightly raced 3yo,no form on sand,might be progressive,you wouldn’t pay much attention to last run,he doesn’t send his 3yo’s to lingfield to win 0/23 last 5 years.Price bit skinny at 11/2 but with 7 runners its probably 6/1 the field anyway

    1. Seems a big price and friendless in the market too, surely if he was considered good enough to run in listed and a group 2 he’s worth a go in this ?

  4. trying a twohorsesforprofit route today, something all of you know I have done for a while, but, going to try it on a daily basis with the two top races of the day, chase and hurdles, in test at the moment and has to be class 4 at least.
    TEST ONLY
    13:45 Wincanton
    EARTH MOOR 1pt win 11/2 gen
    LUNGARNO PALACE 1pt win 14/1 gen
    14:40 Wincanton
    THE KINGS WRIT 1pt win 9/1 gen
    DARLAC 1pt win 7/1 gen

    like i said test only at the moment, hopefully back tomorrow.

    1. Just a side note on the state of the ground, wasn`t using it as an excuse, it is factual, rain in November 2018 was 1234mm average, compared with 2019 November being 2586mm, double, so, ground can only soak so much up..From a punting viewpoint, maybe we shold be looking more into the mudlarks this season.

      1. The ground is different at every course and the way they measure it is open to personal opinion locally too much. Without watching the first race at every meeting yourself you are guessing a bit re going.

    2. Good luck Stewart, I will be watching with anticipation, hope this goes well for you……..and the members of RTP (smiley face).
      Best wishes, Tom.

  5. Rookie mistake yesterday was getting a bit frustrated with nothing qualifying for a bet so had a go at my top rated instead well that was 2 pts down the drain, nothing again today so no proper bets just a silly 5p ew L63 0n:
    Wincanton
    1-10. Cill Anna
    Ffos Las
    1-35. Main Fact
    2-45. Mr Clarkson
    3-15. The Gipper
    3-45. Dusky Hercules
    4-20. Bredon Hill Lad

  6. Good luck with the guest tipster section that is coming. Rory Delargy is the best horse race analyst around at present and so he certainly has the knowledge. Plus he usually goes for value.

    1. Two for today (free of charge) – each way – 12.50 Southwell, Qaaraat and 4.05 Southwell, Angel Palanas. Good luck.

    2. thanks Martin – well i’d hope every ‘racing tipster’ goes for value! as subjective as that may be – a bit buggered if they’re not mind.

      Yep we shall see- if he is one of best in your view, that’s promising – but again given the results and max loss of points he’s had from high points etc as per notes above, does show you how tough this game is, esp when playing 6s/8s/12s+ – the long term profit has been superb and given time he tips, the prices seem to stay static/don’t crash, but we will put that to the test. His write ups are very informative.
      Josh

  7. COLINS BETS
    3.35 Southwell Holy Eleanor 9/4

    ARUBA
    1.45 Wincanton Tea Clipper 5/1
    3.05 Southwell Forseti 3/1
    3.45 F/L Dusky Herculles 11/2
    5.30 Chelmsford Classic Star 9/2
    8.00 Chelmsford Famous Dynasty 7/1

    TIP TOP
    5.30 Chelmsford Classic Star 9/2
    8.00 Chelmsford Famous Dynasty 7/1

    FAVOURED
    12.50 Southwell Harry’s Ridge 7/2
    1.45 Wincanton Danse Idol 7/1
    1.55 Southwell Arabian King 7/2

    MAX BETS
    5.30 Chelmsford Classic Star 9/2
    8.00 Chelmsford Famous Dynasty 7/1
    Colin

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