Members Daily Post: 29/01/20 (complete)

Section 2 (x1), test zone

1.My Tips

2.Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.General messages/updates/new reports etc

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1.My Tips

Daily Chase Tips Main (2019: 24/165, 49p +16.8 ) Jumps Festival Tips (2018:+143; 2019: 6/99,27p, -45.8,)

Daily Chase Tips: Main (2020: 1/21,4p, -17)

(handicap chases, 2m7f+, C4+)

None, no races of choice.

 

Best of The Blog? (test: 1/11, 5p; -2.5)

None.

 

2.Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

JUMPS

Leicester

3.15 – Rootless Tree (all Hc’s) w2 ES+ 6/1 S3A UP

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TTP Chase Micros 2019/20 
3.45 Leic – Celtic Rising (8/1<) 6/1 UP
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Please Read: All information regarding the members club and how to engage in the content, inc Videos. Inc contact info, research articles and much more can be found HERE>>>

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3.Micro System Test Zone

Chase Angles 2019/20 

Long Lay-Off Trainers

3.45 Leic – The Fresh Prince 12/1 UP

 

Chase Eye-Catchers 2019/20 

2.15 Leic – Looks Like Murt (1st run) H3 G3  11/4 UP

 

4.General messages/updates/new reports etc

Micro Monday/Tracker Tuesday posts can be found in the relevant tabs to left hand side when logged in on desktop/tablet. 

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What am I doing? >>> 

I can only apologise for my daily tipping which I think is now in the midsts of my worst ever run from a highpoint. This is the worst period I’ve had, mentally if anything, since the club started in 2017. I’ve plenty to ponder and my response to poor form in recent weeks has been woeful, especially with the type of horse I’ve landed on in recent days. This game is a mental test and while a lobotomy is a last resort, I’ll be spending some time trying to work out what’s going wrong. I’m just not very good at the moment, that’s the reality and results suggest I haven’t been for some time. Clinging on to past glories isn’t that useful when you’re giving the impression you’ve just arrived from Mars and never seen a 3m+ chase before in your life. Sadly stepping away/having a break isn’t an option given how I’ve set things up, although it isn’t much fun at the moment.  This game isn’t easy, but it’s particularly tough right now.  It’s deeper than just ‘bad luck’ etc – the raw ingredients are there but it’s just not coming together as it should. The buck starts and stops with me on that front. I’m lacking any sort of strategy and am too reactionary. It’s all well an good being open, honest and feeling the pain (and I do back every tip also). But it’s results that matter, and indeed how I help you get the best out of the content. All of that needs work. It’s just not good enough. Some of you in the comments are helping me keep the show on the road, which isn’t sustainable. While you may enjoy reading some of the content/comments day to day, that only gets us so far. There’s still 250 odd of you here and those numbers have stayed steady for some time, although I suspect I’m close to being in the shit, as patience is being tested. I always thought I was good at dealing with pressure but the evidence is questionable at the moment. 

Anyway, none of that is your concern other than the fact I know it needs to improve and I’ll be trying my best to do just that. You’ll judge whether you’re enjoying it here and I’m adding value to your experience of racing or not.  Some of my recent decision making has been nothing short of unforgivable. I’ll be giving my head another wobble and will return to some sort of tipping form one day and while it’s only one element of what goes on here, it’s an important one. With that said >>> 

In the meantime…

In general my assessment of other ‘tipsters’ isn’t too bad and one All-weather/Flat tipster I advised looking at has been doing very well. If you missed today’s email to the free list you can read about him HERE>>> 

Members Monthly Guest Tipster… this will start on the 1st of Feb with Rory Delargy/Racing Consultants (one of the services hosted by Darren Power/the Betting School who I know well) – I will pull together an intro to this tomorrow with relevant information. The idea is to add some value to this page but we shall see how it goes. You’ll have the choice of ignoring or using as you please. 

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

39 Responses

  1. Josh, you do seem to be tipping rather a lot of older horses lately. After seeing your tip yesterday and the result which had the first 3 places finishers all 8 or younger made me remember about an article/blog/post somewhere (might of been on here) about backing the younger legs against them. I remember diving into HRB on the back of it and there was certainly some substance to it but me being me clearly didn’t save it or follow it up!

    1. Indeed. Woeful… too many shite older horses! That’s where the lack of strategy comes in – but in truth part of it is just poor analysis – assessing the unexposed ones and knowing what to play, how to play and when to leave etc. Seeing Regal Encore (11), Fingerontheswitch (10), Big River (10) Vintage Clouds (10) High Counsel (11) Total Recall (11), Ok Corral (10) and others win 3m+ chases in recent weeks just messes with your mind – of course assessing unexposed/more lightly raced older horses is key, and indeed if they’re well handicapped and up against a load who have so many questions/nothing really unexposed that ticks boxes (Vintage Clouds) – of course in reality you’re just going to miss some and should live with the fact it’s highly likely you won’t land on them. Certainly I’ve been straying towards too many 11 years olds, and in mediocre races, heavily raced etc – poor.
      Newcastle was just silly given the 4 unexposed ones – my initial reaction was to leave the race by I’ve tried to force a bet. The winner should be found if 10s+ on morning odds but I can’t say I’m in the form that would have landed on him – he was 7s when I looked which I wasn’t sure on given niggles – but I’ve read him wrong on multiple fronts – gaining experience, the trip/more galloping track/cp – all four of those were reasons for improved performance, inc in jumping stakes, as was better ground. And reasons for why he may race further forward.
      The mind is clearly a muddle at the moment, cluttered with many things, and not all of them racing/business related, but that’s life.

      But, in general, younger/unexposed/lightly raced over fences is the place to focus. I know that, my response to pressure has been to throw mud at veterans – beggars belief really. Maybe I need to do some meditation! 🙂

  2. I’m happy I only use systems as I couldn’t cope with the mental turmoil involved in what you do. I couldn’t do what you do at all I would be the worst. If systems fail or decline they firstly get tweaked then put on the naughty step and finally deleted. I click the on the bot in the morning and then get off to work. Usually having about 7 or 8 bets a day. No emotions. I back yours and Colin’s subscription service when they hit their sweet spots otherwise I leave them alone. Find your sweet spots mate and you’ll be fine!! My records will be different to yours from the backend of 2018 but I don’t have you down as winning any bets over the age of 10 in your main tips.

  3. AW T/T

    No winner on Tuesday.

    2 for Wed but both in the same race.

    6.15 K Hassaad…A Watson Hcp…9/4
    Alicia Darcy…A Watson Hcp…7/1

    Mike

  4. My own betting is based on 3 tipsters and a mixture of my own HRB systems and since 1st Dec last year I have to admit the tipsters consisting of Josh, happy punter and his brother Gavin on the AW have been big losses. Fortunately the HRB systems have been doing well so I am still above water atm.
    This isn’t me bigging up my knowledge and wisdom on HRB because to be honest, I’m rubbish
    My point is, I think it’s just luck. At the moment all your knowledge and wisdom on horses is just not being rewarded and a few silly systems are. The time will come when my systems will fall through the floor as usual and you’ll have a really decent run.
    You just need your confidence back but the only way that’ll happen is when your luck changes.
    Keep your chin up Josh. At least your honesty and integrity can’t be questioned and everything who comments in here seem to be very supportive of you.

    Danny

      1. I know. I need to stop with them but it’s the same old story, I always fear they will tip the one that will pay my losses back so I kept going but your right, I should probably call it a day with them

        1. Thanks Danny.
          In an ideal world 2018s profit (+183 or so from Festivals/3m+ which were in free posts then – forget what Dec that year was like) would have been spread over 2019 and it would have looked just fine – but yep last year was bad on Festivals/Big race tips , -45 or so – in part a reaction to year before and given those races that’s not that bad at all really. The bread and butter should be the daily main tips though and since September time they’ve been woeful, some bad luck, some muddled thinking. +16 or so the whole of last year for those isn’t great, and if you started at X point they could look bad.
          It will turn, but only an idiot keeps repeating the same things in the hope of improved outcomes – working out which aspect is that, and which is just luck/variance is key – but long term all the 3m+ and Festival are +440 odd so looks fine in that regard, but since back end 2018 it’s all been a bit naff, and that’s going on for a bit too long.
          I’ve been looking over various tipsters who’ve great long term/4-5 year records – all of them have had -50 to -80 max losing points runs from highpoints etc – not that it’s a comfort, but it happens.
          But ultimately I do just need to improve.

        2. I had a cheap annual subscription for £75 and stopped backing them last March but still track them. It’s a slow painful death if you carry on and getting the occasional big winner will only disguise the fact that you are going to lose long term.

  5. nothing much to go at today but these 2 came out on top of my ratings, 1 pt win on both.
    Leicester.
    3-15. Ardmayle
    4-15. Drewmain Legend

  6. Hi Josh, for what it’s worth these are my thoughts on your good self and RTP. You are one very honest person and clearly work your butt off making this site what it is. For the the few quid this costs us each week we as members get plenty of musings and assistance to help us with our betting. I am not a wealthy man but love the buzz of a bet and treat this purely as a hobby. SInce joining RTP some 14 months ago I have had many winners (and losers) and have really enjoyed the whole experience. This Josh is down to you and the many members that contribute. I doff my hat to all of you and say thankyou Josh for making RTP what it is!! Keep up the great work!
    Best wishes, Tom.

    1. Hi Tom, thanks for the encouragement as always. I take some comfort from the fact you’re been enjoying the journey, during what has been my most mediocre period of tipping since I started the blog I think! So, clearly plenty here to enjoy if you so wish, and well you seem to enjoy it but I won’t take that for granted. I need to up my game.

  7. Chin up fella, myself I haven’t been that great, take heart from the fact that when the better ground comes ( don’t care what anyone says, the ground this NH season has been sloppy from start till now, considering the year before we were crying out for rain!), the winners will also come. I’m just about level since start of season, but, don’t know how then I looked and thought, yes, it’s some of the winners you had and I had fancied that I lumped a bit more on, so, from a personal viewpoint I’m happy enough!!

    1. Thanks Stewart – it is a tough game in general – I generally don’t like looking for excuses – changing conditions year to year, month to month is just part of the jumping game- it’s how we adapt which is more important, and maybe knowing how/when to play, step away from a race etc
      Still, there’s been a few too many horses tailed off for my liking and I haven’t been close enough to a few winners I should have – this game is mainly in the head I think, if you’re at the point where you’re generally happy with your approach – and that includes how you deal with life / channel everything in a way so that the outcome is generally positive.
      But the reality is that it isn’t good enough at the moment and hasn’t been since back end of the summer – really poor. So work to do.

  8. Josh – I think you’ll find that the AW tipster service you suggested is profitable, but not to the extent claimed. Often, the prices are just not obtainable and WH in particular seem to be plugged in to him. Take this morning as an example – the tipster claims to have got on at 14/1, but as soon as his e-mail arrived the best price available was 11/2.

    1. Hi David –

      Hmmm… I’ve spoken to Gary before about advised/claimed prices etc – and I do keep tabs and thought generally ok – important to note that tips go up on the blog around 8am Mon-Friday/10am weekends I think- you’re best logging on at just after 8 – the emails can come 20/30 mins after that.
      RE that horse – the general price available was 11s/12s, and that seems to have been around until around 8.30. A short priced horses was withdrawn 20p R4 – which didn’t help but has clearly been backed.
      One of my main bug bears is declared prices that don’t exists and I’ll email him again – however, that is one of the reasons I’m always keen to arrange low cost trials etc – when you can get on / and whether you can get near advised prices – that’s a key part of any trial – and if you can’t, you just won’t stay I suspect – any tipsters buggering about with prices simply won’t have a business long term, it’s that simple. It’s really not in anyone’s interest.
      Given prices he plays at etc I suspect there can be some drop down from advised prices and profits will still be decent long term, but that is a concern.
      Josh

      1. Josh – he also takes a first 4 places bet, which has on a number of occasions only been available with one particular bookie and not with the majors. That bookie is one of the most cowardly out there, so if he is successful, I’m surprised he can get any bets on with them!!

        1. Doubtful he will get a bet on the stand alone bookmaker, few years ago Cheltenham Festival, Rebecca Curtis trained horse Tony McCoy jockey.
          WH stand alone 5/2 most bookies 9/4 rang WH to place £100 on the nose, went to trader the offer £5 at 9/4 and £95 at SP, asked what about the 5/2 you are advertising, reply thats what the trader says take it or leave it, and this was the FESTIVAL.
          He will not get on and none of his customers will either, Pricewise does this one bookmaker Sporting Bet 50/1 most 25/1 and yes it won at 25/1 and Racing Post claimed the 50/1 and doubt anyone would have got the 50/1.
          My advice to you David is pull the plug Now.
          All the best
          Colin

    2. Hi David
      Afraid this is on par with many tipsters and sadly the Racing Post who say they are monitering the tipsters they are not they are only interested in the advertising fees, did have a tipping line in the past through Optimum Racing and also did golf tips for them, and my experience with the Racing Post was disgusting, ask yourself why they do not show results for their own tipsters, if they are so good!!!
      This is the reason i put my bets and prices after 10am and in most cases the majority not the minority should be able to have access to the price, have always been open and honest on prices.
      Colin.

        1. I disagree with that comment. I have been with them on and off for the last five or six years and they seem to over protect the prices.

      1. It’s all a bit subjective. Quite a few of the well known ones are evening odds and I wouldn’t bet then anyway as you’ve got masses of punters chasing the same price which ends up flagging their a/c’s so anything I consider has to be profitable at mid morning odds (by which time the markets have generally settled down, the early nr’s have been omitted and I normally place my bets).
        If a tipster looks profitable on the face of it I’ll go through the last few months results and see what returns to sp would have been. If there’s not enough profit to cover subs using a fiver stake I don’t look any further.
        If subs are covered I then see what bank I would need to bet over 3 months. Say subs are 30/mth and advised p/l is +120 per annum. I half the p/l and divide by 4 which in this case would be 15 and that is then my minimum target of points profit for the 3 months. I will need a bank of 100 x £2 to give me £30 profit which will pay for month 4. My maximum risk for the 3 months is £290. At this point if month 4 is covered I can increase my bank/stake to cover future subs and make a few quid myself and possibly take out a longer sub to increase my share . If all I have to do is open my email and place a bet I’d be content clearing £50/month. If I’m chasing prices for 6/8 picks a day I want at least another zero on that as my bank to sustain that many bets would have to be at least 200 pts and would include upward of half an hour of angst before elevenses which is taking the piss.
        It seems a long winded way of doing things but far better than jumping straight in with tenner bets and a bank of 1-2k on the say so of a genie in the bottle.

        1. There’s plenty of good stuff there Mike – sounds a solid approach that works for you – nothing wrong with starting at £2s bets – at least as you say it can only get so bad – and you’re assentingly likely profit – and of course considering subs is an important element.

          1. Yep, them subs can be a bank breaker if not approached correctly.
            I don’t see the point of thinking, ‘well I’ve got 2k in my kitty what’s my stake’ on a promise.
            Stake the bare minimum and try for 3 months. No pressure, No chasing profit cos you’ve in effect written off the cost of 3 months anyway as your max risk.
            As your confidence in product/bank increases to a sustainable level you can always add to the pot.
            I like to relax after placing my bets and not be pacing around waiting to see if the next race is going to give me another loser.

  9. Hi Josh
    Losing runs always effect the confidence and if you strongly believe what you are doing is for you trying to find the long priced winners keep on doing it.
    Long losing runs for any subsciption service is not ideal for they will unsubscribe for many do not have the finance to keep going, you have said in the past that RTP is not a tipping service but soon has you start putting up bets then it is and for that reason members do join, not all granted.
    My own betting is normally in the 2/1 to 10/1 range and anything above is a bonus, you can certainly make good profits in this range, again provided you find the right one to back!!!!
    My biggest fear after confidence is that anyone backing my bets are losing their hard earned cash so a losing run does effect me.
    Try looking in the shorter price range again 1 point win and 1/2 point win for the longer priced bets.
    Cheers
    Colin
    PS sat in my bunker trying to find a winner Ha Ha

    1. cheers as always Colin.
      Yep it can be confidence – most of what affects us in this game is in the head – I’m generally confident in my long term approach, while conscious I generally have bursts and a niggle I could be over-reliant on those batch of biggies that have come in and will again. But the daily stuff needs improving on – I’ve probably been trying too hard to find bets as a way to break a run, and thus making it worse – the ‘best of the blog’ is meant to help with diversity and give me more options if I can make that work – I know what boxes I want a horse to tick, just need to regain some discipline and some less muddled thinking .

      Yep obviously this place isn’t ‘just’ a tipping service but it is an element, and an element that for small stakes I’d like to cover stubs long term/profit – and the reality is that any tipping content is the easiest bit to sell/advertise! It’s the hook – people can then come in and within a month or two see if they like the overall package – my target subscriber I suppose isn’t someone who ‘just’ wants to follow tips, but may also like the odd system, or finding their own bets using the info/ideas/chat on these pages, and/or just enjoys the ‘magazine’ element, in sense of various content to just enjoy flicking through – even to extent of enjoying reading comments on a day like this when such a discussion – it’s hard to package and sell that without someone immersing – those potential subscribers exits.
      But in reality, everyone will judge their experience differently – but if their betting accounts have holes in over time, and their judgment is solely on my tipping, that’s fine and what I’d expect.
      I’ll pull it around – a +100 point Festival week, another Scottish/Irish National double and all will be right in the world haha

  10. Honesty – Hard work -good decisions -luck-Success/
    Racing is not an exact science or we would all be millionaire Josh you work hard and make selections in good faith -you are on a poor run after a good run work harder to get better strip back some of the input get back the basics of 2018 it will turn around -don’t get hung up about losers just tweak your strategy- subscribers like myself like the content and make betting decision on opinions and content of this and other sites – I have missed big priced winners over my subscription by not betting all Josh’s selections simply because I don’t fancy them ! Signed up for another Year In Jan 2020 by the way !

    1. haha cheers – yep working on that ‘good decisions’ element is the key! I’ll get back there, but something clearly needs tweaking.

  11. Tipping is a hard game as I know myself away from this site. As I tip on three sports I am not so dependent on horse racing as is Josh. I am not a fan of the concept of specialising in types of races. I think that you need to be a bit more flexible than that to be successful. I think that comes out with Josh when he tackles the festivals.
    I do try to put up the odd subject for discussion each week. I enjoy that more than guys tipping every day on here (although Colin does at least turn in a profit). So more members need to join in.
    It is difficult with the tipping as you are always thinking that you need to find winners to keep the members subscribing. I do not like it when people start talking about luck and it turning as that sounds a bit desperate. Randomness occurs in life every day but there is no leprechaun out there waiting to dish out luck.
    Cleltenham will be upon us soon and that will test all across the four days and so that is something for all tipsters to look forward to.

    1. Thanks Martin –
      I mean my main driver is that I like solving the puzzle and don’t like being crap ! And that drive, and hard work, usually pays off in time – but in truth the last year hasn’t been great – although from Feb-Aug time the daily was doing ok before the wheels come off.

      I suppose the ‘best of the blog’ idea is in part a response to realising that just specialising on 3m+ chases may not be sustainable, esp given how poor weekday jumps has become, and that I need to be using my own stats work/eye-catchers/qualifiers better.

      I’l get there. I enjoy the Festival week as for me it’s the ultimate test, so we shall see how that goes. I do need to return to some sort of form before then mind, and I will try and take a few days off before it to re-charge, which worked well in 2018 (although that was thanks to the snow!)

      I don’t like making excuses – variance is a thing, but shouldn’t be used to keep ploughing on with an approach/mindset etc that may need tinkering with.
      But the reality is that -50 to -80 loss of points from highpoints is normal – there’s 4/5 services with decent long term records who I know have had runs like that, and more than once.
      Still, something needs work.

  12. TIP TOP
    6.45 Kempton Asdaa 3/1

    FAVOURED
    6.45 Kempton Asdaa 3/1

    MAX BETS
    6.45 Kempton Asdaa 3/1

    COLINS BETS and ARUBA
    No bets
    Colin

  13. Josh
    Just had to check the back records and I’ve been a member since Oct 2016 so you must be doing something right for me to still be here. Never underestimate the role that you personally have played in creating and sustaining a community and the spirit that they engender on this website.
    Yes people are drawn by tips but here you not only have the opportunity to follow those brave enough to put up selections every day as well as your own, and it’s our personal choice who we do or do not follow, but also to read well informed views and logical assessments.
    You clearly recognise there is an issue with how your tips are going and are getting to the heart of some of the reasons that underpin this current run (we have all been there) and when confidence is low you/we do tend to overanalyse both what our approach is and question the selections our analysis throws up and as you say – “I’ve probably been trying too hard to find bets as a way to break a run, and thus making it worse”. Perhaps its a good time to reign in and limit selections for a month and don’t be too afraid to dip into the shorter end of the market .Finally definitely take a break the week before the Festival to recharge and then hone in on the festival focus -I feel its so beneficial to do so.

  14. i personally wudn’t mind if you just didn’t tip in these lesser races Josh
    On a losing run myself through my own selections and yours so iv mostly stopped. Trying to make it proper hard for myself to have a bet whilst its always been too easy for me to throw money at loads of bets, have to be jumping off the card at me.
    Vintage Clouds pissed me off last weekend cus i had it down to him an Def Red but went for the wrong one, which seemed so obvious post race

    Is anyone in really good form tho across the tipping world?? I know Colin goes quite well in here but dont think anyones figures that good for this NHseason

    Looking forward to the guest tipster feature even if just for looking at their angle towards finding a selection, can always learn

  15. Josh, look how many painfully close seconds at big prices you had the other month, if a couple of those had gone in it would have done wonders for the mindset. I back yours each way, and I’ve got no complaints because that eases the pain for me when the winners aren’t dropping. I don’t post much on here because I know sod all about reading a race, but I’m well in profit with my subs over the couple of years I’ve been involved thanks to all the regular contributors.

    1. This is a great shout Josh
      Not many as open and honest as you are with us on here as people have already said, but some big prices in all those 2nds so if even a couple of those had finished ahead things wudn’t be nearly as bad

      1. cheers gents – oh yep there have been 3/4 agonising 2nds in the 12/1-16/1 range – any chase where defeat is 2/3L< or so is a game of fine margins - one jumping error, one less jumping error, jockey misjudgement etc etc - that's racing and variance and the sort of thing that evens out - at same time the 16/1 winner I had at Plumpton may have been lucky with a late faller etc - that's the game, and in another time a few more of those may have gone in - at same time it can't disguise from some abject assessments also. I do need to get better at knowing when not to play, and not fear a quiet time/force it. The quality jumping game is increasingly geared towards Saturday's /Festivals. Still, you can't look for excuses in this game, just reflect and work harder. I'll always be honest and open - it's the least you can be - but that alone doesn't pay the bills over time! 🙂

  16. Josh
    I tend to agree with what Colin said earlier about the shorter priced horses. Many years ago I read Alan Potts first book where he said that the shorter priced winners in the 3/1 to 5/1 range allowed him to have a go at the bigger priced selections in the bigger handicaps where the strike rate was lower but if he managed to a couple of big priced winners it ensured him a profit over the year. There seems to be many winners within that price range in stats and the best of the blog. Maybe this might cut down any long losing runs and give you the confidence to stick with the bigger priced selections knowing a winner two at the big festivals will show you a profit at the end of the year.

    1. Hi John,
      Yep, I know that’s an area to improve on, esp on weekday racing/smaller fields – as per that work I did on 4/1< shots etc- I'm ignoring plenty of winners that are sent off in that range, of course the hope being you will land on a few 6s/7s that get backed in - you still need to be assessing value, which is subjective and I've always thought harder the shorter you go - but certainly in 7/2>6/1 range there is reason for improvement and I’ll ponder that.
      I’m confident in my approach long term in the big races/festivals- they will always be a much bumpier ride – saying that the odd abject approach to big Sat races in recent weeks.
      Plenty there to ponder.

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