Micro Monday: 27/01/20

 

A random collection of trainer stats/pointers/angles this week. There’s another ‘trainer to follow’ in February to go alongside the Sue Smith pointers, a look at JP McManus and then some ‘cold’ trainers who could burst into form soon….

 

February Trainer

Paul Nicholls

  • February
  • National Hunt
  • Horse Runs Prev 90 days: 1 only
  • 2015>

109 bets / 37 wins / 49p / 34% sr / +54 SP / +79 BFSP / AE 1.39

    • 8/1< SP best: 90 bets / 36 wins/ 48p / 40% sr / +47 SP / +58 BFSP
    • 17/2 + SP: 1/19,1p, +21 BFSP (Brio Conti last Feb, 25/1)
    • PU LTO: 5/13,6p, +55

 

A small name to follow in February! It’s well known that Nicholls gives his horses flu jabs at the end of December/early January, which can see a dip in performance/fewer runners. In the last 30 days they’ve been going ok… 9/40, 15p… 1/12 in handicaps. Having dived into the stats it does appear that those horses that are lightly raced this season (just 1 run in previous 90 days) are the place to focus. (from a ‘systematic’ perspective) February really does stand out with this angle, and with the flu jab regime it logically makes sense. We shall see how they do this year.

 

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A look at JP…

Last week I touched on JPs record at Warwick with horses trained by Jonjo O’Neill. I thought it best to see if there were any others that stood out. For now i’ve just touched on two trainers below, including the Jonjo angle (+ another track). Jonjo does have far fewer horses owned by JP but hopefully it still ticks along…

 

JP McManus

Nicky Henderson

  • Track: Doncaster/ Kempton/ Newbury/ Newcastle/ Punchestown/ Sandown/ Warwick
  • Any odds
  • 2012>

100 bets/ 49 wins / 66p / 49% sr / +55 SP / +75 BFSP / AE 1.3

 

Jonjo O’Neill

  • Track: Carlisle / Warwick
  • Handicap Hurdle / Handicap Chase (standard/not novice hncps)
  • Any odds
  • 2012>

65 bets / 16 wins / 21p / 25% sr / +92 SP / +127 BFSP / AE 1.62

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Cold trainers? 

Last week one of you (James I think) suggested looking at trainers that had been ‘out of form’ who could now burst into life, and may be worth following – certainly as a way in. Many trainers can suffer quiet periods and often this can be due to illness in the yard, caused by a variety of factors – for example I believe bad feed/hay and local oil seed rape fields cause plenty of problems. Sometimes these issues can be hard to detect but for whatever reason a yard’s horses will under-perform. One of the ‘benefits’ of a quiet period is that some horses handicap themselves and can have a bit in hand when returning to full health. If a yard decides to ‘shut down’ or run fewer horses this can give younger horses more time to develop and they may return to the track at a time when their opponents have had long seasons.

Recent examples would be Phillip Hobbs who had a very quiet/inconsistent late 2018/early 2019 where they just were not firing on all cylinders. This season has been much improved with many leaving poor form from this period well behind them – trying to note down ‘quiet spells’ for yards can help in excuses a horse’s poor form at the time. Rose Dobbin has problems last year, almost shutting the yard down, but they’re back firing. Ben Pauling has had well publicised issues also. There’s been the odd sign that they’re about to burst into life, but he hasn’t had a hot streak just yet. I read that Kim Bailey has been running blood tests on all his string, unhappy with how some of them have been running – I don’t think anything has come to light as yet.

With these ideas in mind, there’s three trainers that may be of interest. Of course, these trainers may just have had too many poorly handicapped horses/not much strength in depth.

However, the following three trainers may be worth noting down for the coming weeks…

 

James Ewart 

I believe by the trainer’s own admission his yard was quiet at times in 2019 – indeed from the 1st Jan 2019 to 25th December he was

… 120 bets / 12 wins / 32p.

In the context of those numbers I found it interesting that since the 26th December he is 24 bets / 5 wins / 8p . I suspect by the end of January he’ll have had at least half of his 2019 winning haul, in just the first month of the year. That could be some sign as to the problems they had, or indeed a poor crop of young horses/too many older horses, for example.

As some sort of pointer to his handicappers >>>

  • Handicap Chase/ Handicap Hurdle (standard/not novice hncps)
  • Horse had 0-3 wins in National Hunt Handicap Type (hurdle/chase)
  • 16/1< SP

 

247 bets / 50 wins / 100p / 20% sr / +126 SP / +177 BFSP / AE 1.24 

As a comparison… within this angle in 2019… 6/32, 10p. In 2018 he was 5/34, 14p also. Those runners were way down on the 3 years before (68/55/50). In 2020 within this angle Ewart is already 3/8, 4p and has half the winners of last year already.

It could be that as well as  illness issues last year, Ewart has also had to restock with younger blood. In any case, maybe 2020 is going to be a good year. Time will tell but the early signs are promising.

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Katy Price

Some caution here as Katy doesn’t have a massive string I don’t think. Her whole focus appears to be on the chasing game and bringing horses along slowly until they are ready for fences. (1/110,15 in non-handicap hurdles for example).

On the 23rd of Jan she had her first winner since 28th August 2019… she was 0/67, 9p before then. That could have been an illness issue or that some of her string were in the grip of the handicapper. These smaller yards often don’t have a conveyor-belt of new/young horses coming in, and stats such as those above may not be down to illness/out of form issues at all.

A pointer for her chasers >>>

  • Handicap Chase/ Handicap Novice Chase
  • 3m+
  • Jockey: Ben Poste
  • 12/1< SP (0/19,1p when sent off bigger)

 

39 bets / 14 wins / 20p / 36% sr / +69 SP / +81 BFSP / AE 2.13

 

Some caution: those numbers are very solid, but do stem from just four chasers. I suppose it’s some indication that when these horses start winning, they’re well handicapped and she knows how to get a few wins out of them/keep them sweet. However, i’d be surprised if that angle didn’t tick along over time.

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Seamus (JW) Mullins

From the 1st of August 2019 to the end of 2019 the Mullins yard were: 1/105, 14p. Those stats would suggest some sort of issue.

In the last 27 days the yard are: 2/19, 8p.  Maybe a sign of a resurgence ahead, although the yard have never been the most prolific. But if they have had issues, the next few weeks/months could well see a turnaround.

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That’s all for this week’s musings. As ever if you’ve any questions, fire away below.

Josh

 

 

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  • Hi Josh, Yes it was me! Excellent piece of work again, many thanks. I will probably leave the nicholls feb angle as the AE is not high enough for me. I caught a Sandy Thomson interview pre race just now and he mentioned he didn’t have a winner between feb and oct ! not sure how many runners he had in that time though. I like the Katy Price angle and will make a note of that. I was at Market Rasen a couple of weeks ago and saw how immaculately her horse was turned out, so i reckon there is a lot of effort going on there and know what they are doing judging by those numbers . Cheers James

    jamesm 28/01/20 2:47 PM Reply


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