Members Daily Post: 28/01/20 (complete)

Tip x1 + write up, Section 2 (complete), test zone, micro monday

1.My Tips

2.Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.General messages/updates/new reports etc

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1.My Tips

Daily Chase Tips Main (2019: 24/165, 49p +16.8 ) Jumps Festival Tips (2018:+143; 2019: 6/99,27p, -45.8,)

Daily Chase Tips: Main (2020: 1/21,4p, -17)

(handicap chases, 2m7f+, C4+)

2.10 Newc – CAPARD KING – 1 point EW – 6/1 (bet365) 11/2 (gen) (1/5, 3p) UP 3/1. 

that’s all for main tips today as of 08.29, write up at bottom of post…

 

Best of The Blog? (test: 1/11, 5p; -2.5)

None.

 

2.Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

JUMPS

Newcastle

3.10 – Bleu Et Noir (all Hc’s) 16/1 S2A UP

3.40 – The Pine Martin (micro class) 20/1 S2A 3rd 33/1 

 

Lingfield……..None

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Please Read: All information regarding the members club and how to engage in the content, inc Videos. Inc contact info, research articles and much more can be found HERE>>>

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3.Micro System Test Zone

January Trainers 

Sue Smith (any odds)

2.10 Newc – Hill Sixteen H3 I1 5/1 2nd 

3.10 Newc – Whats The Scoop H3 I3 G3 5/1  WON 11/2 

Lucinda Russell (any odds, 14/1< best)

1.10 Newc – Methotothemadness I3 11/1 UP

 

Chase Angles 2019/20

Trainers

2.10 Newc – Capard King I3 G1 6/1 UP 3/1 

3.10 Newc – Voila Eric  7/1 UP

LTO Winners Starting Point (12/1<) 

2.10 Newc – Hill Sixteen H3 I1 5/1 2nd 

LTO Winning Trainers

2.10 Newc – Fortified Bay H1 I3 7/1 WON 7/1>11/1 

 

Chase Eye-Catchers 2019/20

1.40 Newc – Electron Bleu (3rd run/not run over fences since) I3 G3 7/2 2nd 

 

4.General messages/updates/new reports etc

This week’s Micro Monday post HERE>>>

(a Feb trainer / JP / ‘Cold’ trainers)

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Capard King – he looks the bet in here and a rare EW poke, the poor sod. I’ll explain why in a moment. My initial 60 second thoughts when looking at this last night were to leave it alone – you see four LTO winners, all arguably still open to progress, with another in form etc and think it may be worth leaving. Maybe come 2.20 i’ll be wishing I did just that but then I watched a few replays/looked at the form, and concluded that Capard King’s jumping ‘could’ pull this race apart from the front/a handy position. I thought he was entitled to be second fav in this, around 7/2. 

Like many an older horse he’s seemingly been transformed by Sandy Thomson, who’s yard remain in superb form. (4/13,8p last 14 days, 5/19,10p, +36 with 11YO handicappers) Two starts ago, racing handily, he bolted up with a superb round of jumping/galloping. I’m not sure what he beat there although the 2nd ran ok NTO at Ayr, plugging on for 2nd. On paper the race conditions were the same as for Cash To The Ash’s win (well 25 yards further) – Capard ran his race 6 seconds quicker and was easing in the last 1/2 furlong. 

It’s his form LTO which catches the eye – i’m yet to dive into the new Geegeez Sectionals time data (if you’re into your speed figures, even more reason to dip in, especially on the AW – it’s a complex area that I need to get my head around, esp understanding how races have been run ) however looking at Capard’s last race here – he appears to have done too much/gone too hard, especially through the middle part, before he fell in a hole in the last furlong or so – in part I think that’s because Mania may have tried to jump them into the ground again – however he was bumping into two very good horses – the winner was progressive, he’d go up to 140 after that win and then follow up in a decent C2 handicap at Ascot. He was trying to get away from a C2 horse 25lb+ superior to him, with younger legs. Those efforts told at the end but bar those two better horses the other 5 could’t live with it, struggling some way out . Sam’s Adventure was a solid yardstick in 2nd also, running Lord Du Mesnil close a couple of starts back – he didn’t seem to appreciate Ascot/heavy LTO.  That is the best form in this race by some way and nothing in here ran up against horses like that LTO, and Capard was leading them on the turn for home, with the rest struggling. He plugged on. 

His assets on his last two starts have been his jumping and he seems to enjoy it around here. I just want him to run as well as he has the last twice – I was struggling to see him out the places if he did in a race that may not be as competitive as it seems on paper. +5lb wouldn’t have stopped him two starts back and he’s previously been rated much higher, and is seemingly in some of the best form of his life. 

The dangers… 

Glittering Love – he’s the correct fav in this given his unexposed profile and he beat Capard King in March (CKs 1st run for yard) by 5L. There’s a 6lb swing today which may or may not make a difference- his chase form has all been at Hexham/Ayr until running here LTO, and capsizing. He does have niggles in the jumping department and that may have knocked his confidence. He may appreciate this more sedate pace stepped back up in trip, but there’s still questions for him in the context of 2s. With a clear round I think he’s the one to beat and I wouldn’t be shocked if he’s battling with the selection over the last. 

Of the others… Cash To Ash… well i’ve touched on him above, but his jumping is suspect also – this is a much stronger race than LTO, up in class, and he was able to measure his fences there- he jumps out to his right, one of them violently so LTO, and he walked through the last two when under no pressure. He’s up 8lb here and is one of those that Capard King could get under pressure with his jumping, provided he runs his race, as always. 

Likewise Fortified Bay- that MR race is working out ok in fairness and i’m not sure how he won – he’s usually held up cold but may appreciate this step up in trip. He’s in 1st CP here also. He’s another who walked through a few fences at MR and Newcastle is a much stiffer jumping test than around there. He wasn’t great at Bangor the run before that either, but is young/unexposed and entitled to be learning. I wondered if his jumping would keep him in the game in this race, if they go the pace I think they might. 

Hill Sixteen – unexposed, the inform Smith team, but 5s didn’t seem overly generous – I don’t think his form has been great so far, he’s not the easiest ride and he’s stamina to prove – maybe that win will transform him over fences but I had a few niggles having watched a couple of his recent runs. He is a point winner though, so maybe he will now step forward. He’s up 5lb and up in class, into a much stronger/deeper race. He may well have only won LTO due to the horse in front idling/stopping. 

Most of the rest look out of sorts and have far too many questions for me – Ascot De Bruyere is interesting but when taking account of claims (Fox claimed 5lb for his last win) he is still 7lb above his highest winning mark, as an exposed 10 year old. On that basis I was happy to leave but he may appreciate this step back up in trip and the yard are in fine form, which may now rub off on him – his jumping went to pieces a bit LTO also – his last win in Feb was easy off 122 (-5) and I won’t say with confidence that he can’t win from this mark, but he does have a question there. It could be they’re getting his mark down but he races up there and could be in the places.  

Pace wise… Capard doesn’t have to lead but he does seem at his best when prominent. Ryan will jumping him out and see what position his cruising speed takes him to I suspect – IF he jumps as the last twice he shouldn’t have a problem holding a position front rank and with any luck can start to wind it up in the last mile, with a few of these struggling out the back. Hughes may then loom up and we shall see what happens over the last two! The selection isn’t getting any younger but i’ve decided not to have set rules on what horses I go with or not. You have to take it on a race by race, horse by horse basis. At least this one has a touch of class and is seemingly in form. 

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

17 Responses

      1. Newcastle is jumps tomorrow, not AW 🙂 … as an aside he’s 2/12,3p +46 in chase hncps, both Rock On Fruity

          1. Keep checking Linda I do make the odd mistake.

            Just as a bit of interest I have noticed 2 or 3 of the AW picks which have lost and won a run or 2/3 later but not at under our rules either at a different track or otherwise.
            One’s that come to mind are, Rulers Kingdom, Calavade, Fire Fighting.
            There is one running today FORTISSIMO 6.55 S.

            Good luck if you follow it.

            Mike

  1. TIP TOP
    4.10 Newcastle Ladronne 5/2

    ARUBA
    Southwell
    4.25 Crazy Spin 9/2
    5.55 Gulliver 9/2
    6.55 Kodiline 14/1

    FAVOURED
    1.40 Newcastle Electron Bleu 7/2
    6.55 Southwell Fortissimo 11/2

    COLINS BETS and MAX BETS
    No bets
    Colin

  2. Josh

    Is there a reason that I now have to give my full name and email address every time I post on the site?

    Mike

    1. Hmm, that shouldn’t be happening when you’re logged into the members’ area, should just be able to write message and post ? You can edit what profile name appears etc maybe try logging in and out again, no sure why it would start doing that!

        1. hmm, not sure if it’s something to do with being double logged in to the wordpress side also – no idea- i’ll try logging in as you and see- but if you’re on desktop and can see a black bar across the top, or indeed in very top right hand corner have option of logging out, that may be it – will log you out of wordpress element, but stay logged in/can log in with members’ log in box to the right hand side etc – I say that slightly confused as to why the case.

          If this is happening with anyone else, do let me know…

  3. Karl Burke has a sole runner today in Sylviacliffs 6.55 southwell,but is very short for a horse that seems to be regressing.Did manage a 3rd for a very agressive ride lto.Just a minimal investment.
    Very interesting piece on cold trainers.On a very basic level anything that grabs my eye on racing post card,the first thing i check is the 14 day record,a trainer that is 0/10 or more i usually eliminate and then a quick check on days since a winner,you don’t want your hard earned money flowing in to the bookies satchels on a trainer that hasn’t troubled the judge in the last 90 days.
    Hobbs and Pipe have had a revival in fortunes this season but at a more modest level than in the old days of the Pipe/Hobbs/Henderson days.I think its a case of finding the level that their string can be competitive.
    A good example is Henry Daly.He never was a top flight trainer but had a select yard of very good horses,and all went quiet for a good while.He is back with a fair number of winners but at a lower level.
    Maybe the secret to Karl Burkes success is that he has mostly moderate horses,with the odd over achiever but he gets the best out of them by placing them in races where they can be competitive

    1. I agree that Sylviacliffs is a horse that you would not want to back with someone else’s money. However he is a Karl Burke at Southwell and will likely drift out. If he wins and you are not on you will be sick!

  4. That would only be mild indigestion,Martin.16/1 and the cat would be looking at me in a questioning manner.Don’t get much time with work and a shed full of hungry cattle for the long western winter but a very good trainer/Jockey combo is Whittington/Sheehan Katanga 1.40 Newcastle

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