Members Daily Post: 27/01/20 (complete)

Best of x1, Section 2 (x1), test zone

1.My Tips

2.Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.General messages/updates/new reports etc

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1.My Tips

Daily Chase Tips Main (2019: 24/165, 49p +16.8 ) Jumps Festival Tips (2018:+143; 2019: 6/99,27p, -45.8,)

Daily Chase Tips: Main (2020: 1/20,4p, -15)

(handicap chases, 2m7f+, C4+)

None today, struggling to find anything in that Plumpton race with my subjective value eyes – Gleno, Pres, Bill And Barn are all lightly raced over fences and have decent recent runs to their names, Clondaw and Dylan arrive in form when last seen also, and Ask The Weatherman could probably still win a race like this if on a going day, but that’s anyone’s guess. I’ll sit it out and will try to stop throwing mud in mediocre chases hoping some of it sticks, especially on older horses that have had plenty of racing. The lightly raced ones haven’t been missed in the market – it may be interesting to see how some of the form-lines work out – Gleno has form behind Christmas In April who was well handicapped when he bumped into him at Fontwell – the form of Pres’ two runs before the C3 at Winc was solid, with Seaston Spirit franking it. 

 

Best of The Blog? (test: 1/11, 5p; -2.5)

2.15 Kelso -Celtic Flames- 1 point win – 13/2 (gen) 3rd, 15/2 – solid if unspectacular run – not that it affected this one as such but betting on Kelso chases at this time of year appears to be pointless- a guessing game as to whether fences will be dolled off or not due to low sun – they jumped four fewer fences in this, thus making it less of a jumping test and more of a stamina test in the latter stages. That has certainly helped the winner, although given how mine jumped it probably helped him also! I suspect he will be going RH again soon, but a solid run and I lived in hope he may power up the hill – but outstayed and the winner was entitled to do that. 

that’s all for today, as of 09.04, write up at bottom…

 

2.Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

JUMPS

Kelso

1.45 – Taxmeifyoucan (all Hc’s) w2 11/2 UP

3.15 –

Lake View Lad (micro runs) H1 7/1  UP

Newtown Boy (all Hc’s) w2 H3 9/1 UP

McGowan’s Pass (m runs)14,30 w1 I3 G3 5/2 2nd 

 

Plumpton

3.00 – Hideaway Vic (m age) 14,30 H3 I1 G3 7/4 S4 2nd

3.30 – Dylanseoghan (HcCh) 14 H3 I3 13/2 UP

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TTP Chase Micros 2019/20

2.00 Plump – Wenceslaus (any odds) H1 I1 6/4 WON 6/4>3/1 

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3.Micro System Test Zone

January Trainer 

Lucinda Russell (any , 14/1< best)

2.15 Kel – Celtic Flames H3 I3 13/2 – 3rd  / Timesawaiting  28/1 UP

 

4.General messages/updates/new reports etc

 

Celtic Flames – one from the Jan trainers here who looks worth a go at the odds. He is 10 but it’s only his 8th chase start (2/7) and 17th career run in total, inc a point win. They’ve run him over hurdles a couple of times since returning from a long enough absence and he’s ran with credit. He’s back to his last winning chase mark where he beat Middlebrow in March 18 who’s a solid yardstick. That was on the back of falling at the last in his previous race when coming to win also. At his best he has the ability to compete in a race like this, which doesn’t seem the strongest. Russell’s had a couple of winners in the last 8 days, inc her last runner (Haul Us In, who the selection was just behind on his return two starts back) and she’s 11/42, 18p in 17f handicap chases at Kelso, 7/28,11p in C4. She’s also 2/9,3p with 10 year olds in handicap chases here. Hopefully Derek rides him positively as he was LTO – they’ve ridden him in all sorts of ways over fences so we shall see. He should be able to race up there with ease if he wants. This horse stays 17f really well (and gets further) which could help in these conditions.

Of the rest… Lastin’ Memories has been running well and maybe a repeat will be enough – but now they try the blinkers and they must be thinking he’s not been putting it all in. He can be ridden patiently and has shaped as if he wants further- or he’s just slow. If they have a positive effect and he doesn’t get too far back (they may try making all in them) he should go close- he bumped into one LTO. Manetti won a weak race in a crawl really and I’m not sure as to the level of that form. The potential pace of this race may catch him out in the jumping department. Empire De Maulde is unexposed on his 2nd chase start but wasn’t great LTO and now he gets 1st CP, which may make a difference- he didn’t jump well that day but could be a different proposition today. A leap of faith to an extent but the yard are starting to hit form and he should come on for the run. He had ability over hurdles. The rest have plenty of questions to my eyes.

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

6 Responses

  1. today’s selections.
    Plumpton.
    3-30. Ask The Weatherman (unmatched @ 9.8)
    4-00. Scrutinise @ 6.2
    Kelso.
    1-45. Total Assets @ 6.6
    2-15. Halcyon Days @ 19.5
    2-45. Skyhill ( unmatched @ 3.6)
    all 1/2 pt win , unmatched bets will be at bfsp.

    with bog being all over the place timewise i’m using BF for win bets requesting the price i’m happy with and if they drift so be it i can only look at early market prices for any comparison .
    3-15. Lake View Lad nearly made the list and i’ll probably have a minimum bet on.

  2. Boring monday back from a walk,decided to put another tales of a racing groupie!
    Went to Lambourn gallops for Dai was interested in the possible purchase of a horse, Charlie Mann had retired has a jockey and was not training at this time, and he popped the horse over 3 fences.
    Dai and myself then walked over to the trainer who i had never met, shook hands intoduced and then to my total amazement the trainer said he wanted £5000 for the horse, Dai said pounds the trainer said no guineas, and he quickly added £5000 for the owner and £500 for me.
    Still amazed to this day that anyone can be so open in front of a stranger when the trainer had only met me a couple of minutes earlier.
    I could have contacted the News of the World over this now that is a clue to the trainer, and he does not train anymore.
    Colin.

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