Members Daily Post: 26/01/20 (complete)

Tip x1, Section 2 (complete), test zone

1.My Tips

2.Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.General messages/updates/new reports etc

*

1.My Tips

Daily Chase Tips Main (2019: 24/165, 49p +16.8 ) Jumps Festival Tips (2018:+143; 2019: 6/99,27p, -45.8,)

Daily Chase Tips: Main (2020: 1/20,4p, -15)

(handicap chases, 2m7f+, C4+)

3.30 Sedge – VEAUCE DE SIVOLA – 1 point win – 8/1 (gen) UP 12/1

 

 

Best of The Blog? (test: 1/10, 4p; -1.5)

None.

 

2.Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

JUMPS

Fontwell

1.50 – Lee Side Lady (micro runs) ES+ H1 I3 G1 9/1 S3A# S4 UP

2.50 – Sky Full Of Stars (m dist) H3 G3 4/1 UP

3.20 – Itsonlyrocknroll (m dist) w1 H1 I3 G1 2/1 S4 UP

 

Sedgefield

1.00 – Xpo Universel (HcH) H3 I3 G1 9/1 S4 S1 (IF 11.00+ BFSP)  WON 8/1 

3.00 –

Nicely Indeed (HcH) 12/1 

Ormesher (m +dist) 5/1 

Bertie Blake (HcH) w1 H3 G1

4.00 –

Island Villa (HcH) w1 H3 I3 G1 11/2 S4 S1 (IF 11.00+ BFSP) 

Sincerely Resdev (HcH) 16/1 S2A

*
TTP Chase Micros 2019/20
3.30 Sedge – Misdflight 20/1 UP
*

Please Read: All information regarding the members club and how to engage in the content, inc Videos. Inc contact info, research articles and much more can be found HERE>>>

*

3.Micro System Test Zone

January Trainers 

Sue Smith (any odds) 

1.30 Sedge – Oscar Wilde H3 2/1 WON 2/1>11/8 

 

Chase Angles 2019/20 

LTO Winning Trainers

1.00 Sedge – Cedar Hill (12/1< guide)  3/1 UP

 

Chase Eye-Catcher 2019/20 

1.30 Sedge – Oscar Wilde (2nd run) H3 2/1 WON 2/1>11/8 

2.10 Naas- Spyglass Hill (1st run/hot form)  H3 20/1 Fell 

 

4.General messages/updates/new reports etc

 

3.30 Sedge – Veauce De Sivola – 

He looked overpriced in this moderate affair at 8s, on his second run back from a break. They return to a CD where he ran well at the back end of last season and he will appreciate these ground conditions. He usually races prominently, jumps well and stays very well. He was formerly decent enough, in the context of this race, and the Foster team appear to have rejuvenated him in Feb/March time, on his first few runs for the yard. I like the strength of that form, in the context of this race. At Musselburgh he comfortably beat a 99 rated McCain horse, despite making a bad early blunder, and that one has since won a couple more times. That Hexham run was solid, having got tapped for toe, running on – he’d have been 3rd there but the horse who was booked for 2nd fell, and he’s won a couple since, and the winner has gone in again. While he’s up in class here, so is the fav and it’s generally a weak contest. With any luck mine will gallop/outstay them all. 

Of the dangers – well Ask Paddy is seemingly in the form of his life but only ran 4 days ago and has gone up 7lb – if he runs his race again he shouldn’t be too far away but is open to attack from something better treated. I don’t think there’s really an unexposed hot-pot in this, but if there is one then it’s Karl Burkes Putdecashonthedash – he’s still a maiden but this could be easier than LTO- he did hit a few fences there, it’s his first run at this course and he has to prove his stamina – 3s didn’t seem overly generous, esp with lugging 11-12 around, but if he jumps, handles conditions and stays, he could be a danger to all and he’s the most lightly raced in here- there isn’t enough there for me to be scared of him to the point of leaving the race alone. 

Outside of those two, maybe Benarty Hill is most interesting but he’s usually held up and it’s hard to know what he beat LTO, in a race that completely fell apart. He did win it well, visually, but I preferred mine at the prices. Late Date appears to have gone out of form a tad but was bang there until the last LTO, in a weak enough race also – he does enjoy it around here though so could be a danger if a few don’t run their races. He may try and push the pace alone, maybe taking on Ask Paddy with mine in 3rd, picking up the pieces as they rattle down the hill. 

So, it’s dire stuff, as most of the jumps racing appears to be outside of weekends these days, but I thought there was enough there at 8s to have a dart. Relying on an 11YO chaser to return to some sort of form in these 3m+ chases may be asking for trouble, but i’ll keep plugging away. 

*

 

Share on facebook
Facebook
Share on twitter
Twitter
Share on pinterest
Pinterest
Share on linkedin
LinkedIn
Share on telegram
Telegram

Post Comments

Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

7 Responses

  1. Hi Colin, yet another cracking day yesterday and more profit!! Well done to you and as always thankyou for taking the time and trouble to post.
    Best wishes, Tom.

  2. A “thank you” from me Colin, been waiting for a day like that and “it comes to him who waits”. Good day all round with Josh finding one as well! Keep it up guys.

    1. Hi Gordon
      It was nice to see Tip Top come bouncing back after a few losers and did it bounce back in style with a 11/1 and 10/1 winners from only 3 bets.
      Has you said it comes to him who waits.
      Colin

  3. COLINS BETS + 0.75

    TIP TOP + 15.75
    2.50 Fontwell Sky Full Of Stars 4/1

    ARUBA + 40.083
    No bet

    FAVOURED – 10.667
    3.50 Fontwell The Brothers 10/3

    MAX BETS + 17.75
    No bet
    Thank you Gerald and Tom for your kind comments.
    Colin.

  4. This isn’t the place to discuss social care provision( or the lack of) but due to personal circumstances i’m finding it harder to post before the start of racing and of course because i find myself with a rare 2 hours spare there is sod all that looks worth a decent bet today.
    So have spent the time number crunching the selection method i’ve been working on and by breaking them down to race class i’ve discovered quite a major difference in profitability.
    Class 1/2 show a loss
    Class 3/4/5 show a profit with C4 standing out as by far the best.
    Class 6 just about break even but relying heavily on the odd biggie.
    I know this is probably boring the pants off anyone bothering to read this far but it does help me when putting things down in writing so please indulge me.
    Going forward i’m will continue to back C3/4/5 and paper trade the rest to monitor any turn around in fortunes.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published.