Members Daily Post: 25/01/20 (complete)

Tips x2 , Best of x1, Section 1 (complete), test zone, stats pointers

1.My Tips

2.Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.General messages/updates/new reports etc

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1.My Tips

Daily Chase Tips Main (2019: 24/165, 49p +16.8 ) Jumps Festival Tips (2018:+143; 2019: 6/99,27p, -45.8,)

Daily Chase Tips: Main (2020: 1/19,4p, -14)

(handicap chases, 2m7f+, C4+)

3.15 Doncaster

#1 – BURBANK – 1.5 point win – 9/1 (betfS/BV/PP) 8s (others) 11.00 (BetfX)

#2 – SOLOMON GREY – 1 point win – 14/1 (gen) 18.00 (BetfX)

that’s all for main jumps tips today, as of 08.18, write up at bottom. 

 

Best of The Blog? (test: 1/10, 4p; -1.5)

1.15 Chelt – SIMPLY THE BETTS – 1 point win – 15/2 (gen)

that’s all for today, as of 09.00, Chelt ‘through the card’ at bottom…

 

2.Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

JUMPS

Doncaster

12.20 – Successor (micro age) 25/1 S2A

1.30 – Mahlermade (m dist) H3 I3 G1 11/4 S4

3.15 –

Dingo Dollar (m dist) H1 6/1 

Quarenta (m age) w2 I1 G3 7/1 (S1 IF 11.00+ BFSP) 

Azzerti (m dist and runs) G3 12/1 S1 

Good Man Pat (m dist) 8/1 

Chidswell (HcCh) G3 14/1 S1

 

Uttoxeter

2.30 – Clyne (m runs) H1 I3 G3 9/4 S4

4.15 –

Main Fact (m runs) w1 H1 I1 G3 7/4 S4

Comber Mill (all Hc’s) 14/1 

Finvarra (m runs) 40/1 

 

Cheltenham………None

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TTP Chase Micros 2019/20 

1.50 Chelt – Count Meribel (any odds) I3 G3 15/2 

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3.Micro System Test Zone

January Trainers 

Sue Smith (any odds) 

12.20 Donc – Rare Clouds G3 12/1 

3.15 Donc – Ravenhill Road  15/2 

3.40 Uttox – Valence DAumont 4/1 

4.15 Uttox – Minella Fiveo I3 22/1 

Lucinda Russell (any odds, 14/1< best) 

3.40 Uttox – Charmix H3 I3 G3 5/1 

 

Chase Angles 2019/20

Trainers

1.15 Chelt – Court Master 18/1 

3.15 Donc – Burbank H3 I3 9/1 / OK Corrall (both 10/1<) 9/1 

3.05 Uttox – Lamanver Odyssey G3 9/4 

Jockey Angles 2019/20 

1.50 Chelt – My Way 6/1 

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Chase Eye-Catchers 2019/20 

1.15 CheltSimply The Betts (1st run) H3 I3 G3  15/2 

1.50 Chelt – Count Meribel (1st run – hot form) I3 15/2 

1.30 Donc – Lygon Rock (2nd run – hot form) 15/2 

 

4.General messages/updates/new reports etc

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Doncaster SkyBet Chase

Stats/Trends

The 14/15 stats leave 11/15 winners (11/76 runners, 19p, +69) and leave…

Dingo Dollar / OK Corral / Burbank / Chidswell / Good Man Pat / Calipto / Looksniwlikebrian 

Trainers (to have won race with runners) 

  • Dingo Dollar / Azzerti / Good Man Pat 
  • Ravenhill Road 

 

Cheltenham 2m4.5f G3 Handicap 

Stats/Trends

The 11/15 stats leave 10/15 winners (10/60 runners, 19p) and leaves…

Warthog / Spiritofthegames / My Way 

Trainers (to have won race with runners) 

  • Warthog 
  • My Way 
  • Count Meribel 
  • Cepage 
  • Garde La Victoire 

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Cheltenham ‘through the card’ 

I’m off to Cheltenham today, although with my eyes on Donny, and have had a quick flick through the card – more in hope than expectation given how competitive it feels/the time spent… 

12.40 – Monte Cristo 

1.15 – Simply The Betts (‘best of test tip’) 

1.50- Warthog / Count Meribel 

2.25 – Bristol De Mai 

3.00- King Roland 

3.35 – If The Cap Fits (PP prob hacks up but 4/6) 

4.10 – Ainchea 

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Tips…

3.15 Donny – 

Burbank – I just couldn’t get away from him at 9s – Henderson has yet to win this but does have 4 places to his name and this horse decimated his field LTO. He has gone up 11lb but despite his trainers lack of confidence, based on his hurdles form/unexposed chase profile, there could be more to come. He can be a character but I thought he could lob along on/near the front end, maybe tracking Dingo, and power away up the straight. That’s the plan anyway! Im fairly bullish on him, in part due to how he races, so that’s an extra penalty he’ll have to shoulder!

Solomon Grey – I concluded at 14s he was worth a stab as he just has a different profile to most in here. His hurdles form is ok esp his novice and he’s unexposed over fences. The fact he’s had a break and they reach for 1st CP makes me think this is a plan and his jumping has been getting better. There’s a stamina Q, as well as lack of experience, hence wanting a price – but he could relish this trip given how he shapes and the CP may help him late on, as he can idle a bit/think he’s done enough I think. He should leave a mark of 138 behind at some point chasing. He should race prominently and if can get into a rhythm could outrun his odds. 

Of the rest… who are the annoying ones… Fingerontheswitch is the top of that list at 12s but he’s usually held up and he is 10, now on a career high chase mark – it may be within range and is in the form of his life – a bit run wouldn’t shock me but i’ve gone with younger/more unexposed legs to my eyes, but it may be a race where an older horse just running their race is enough. He was my first choice for a second pick but then I changed course to Solomn, so we shall see how that goes! He looks ‘solid’ EW, but that isn’t my usual approach, however much I wish it was at times.

Quarenta appearsto be fancied everywhere and this may be run to suit, I didn’t think he was overpriced on morning odds and does need to step up/find more from this mark now, and I thought he may find this all a bit too much. 7s or so for a horse who’s ridden cold out the back, in a big race is never big enough for me – but he could still be improving I suppose – i’m not sure this will be far enough around here, but I could be wrong. His form ties in with Mahlermade who runs earlier on Donny card and Highway One O One at Chelt – so three horses to keep an eye on, as collateral form, as the afternoon progresses. 

Those four were where I focussed, happy to leave the rest for various reasons. 

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Best of blog… Simply The Betts who was an eye-catcher who I missed posting last night – I think he will destroy a mark of 140 at some point based on his form – that Chepstow race is working out very well, and i’ve no idea how he got so close LTO, losing 15/20L at his fences I think. His novice hurdle form is good. He will be much better going LH on this more galloping track. He’s some engine and is exciting. He has stamina to prove but could relish it. It could be this is just a prep for the Close Brothers , as he’s on the right mark, but I didn’t want to over think that. If he’s here to run his race, 15/2 looks good to me. 

GL with any bets.

Josh

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

17 Responses

  1. AW T/T

    No winners Friday.

    12.00 L Cottonopolis…M Johnston T/J Cl…6/1
    12.35 L Golden Fountain…M Johnston T/J Cl…9/2
    8.00 K Pempie…A Balding Cl…7/1

    Mike

  2. I like Ravenhill Road in the Sky Bet Chase at Donny 3.15 – think the early 8/1 will go fast and this one can improve again at the longer trip for the in form Sue Smith GL

  3. Four I like today are:
    Jarveys Plate Cheltenham 13:15 1pt e/w
    Lalor Cheltenham 13:50 1pt e/w
    Burbank Doncaster 15:15 1pt e/w
    Lami Serge Cheltenham 15:35 1pt e/w

  4. Todays, sorry no write ups, working on a weekend now, so, time is against me.
    13:15 Cheltenham
    CLOUDY GLEN 1pt win 6/1 gen
    SIMPLY THE BETTS 1pt win 15/2 gen
    13:50 Cheltenham
    MY WAY 1pt win 6/1 gen
    COOL MIX 1pt win 28/1 gen
    15:15 Doncaster
    BURBANK 1pt win 9/1 gen
    QUARENTA 1pt win 5/1 gen

    hope all horses and jockeys come back safe and sound and good luck with whatever your selections are today.

  5. TIP TOP
    12.35 Lingfield Mr Shady 11/1
    1.50 Cheltenham Cepage 10/1
    4.10 Cheltenham Sofia’s Rock 9/2

    MAX BETS
    No bet
    Colin

  6. COLINS BETS
    4.05 Lingfield Alicia Darcy 13/2
    5.30 Kempton Pioneering 12/1

    ARUBA
    1.10 Lingfield Petite Jack 9/2
    4.30 Kempton Spirit Power 7/2
    5.00 Kempton Triple Spear 5/2
    8.00 Kempton Jamaican Jill 10/3

    FAVOURED
    1.30 Doncaster Very First Time 7/1
    2.25 Cheltenham Bristol De Mai 9/4
    3.00 Cheltenham Rocket Lad 7/1
    6.30 Kempton Qatar Queen 2/1
    7.30 Kempton Purdey’s Gift 11/4
    Colin

  7. Uttox 1.20 The Cob 11/1
    Chelt 1.15 Mercy Mercy Me 9/1
    Chelt 1.50 Court Meribal 7/1
    Chelt 4.10 Northern Beau 10/1

  8. Great assessment Josh….Simply the Betts…or the Best in your case.

    Spot on….Hosed home. Well Done.

    Tony Mc.

    1. Thanks Tony, nice to read something right, been a while! That was a superb performance from horse and rider, that patience coming down the hill won it.

  9. Sad about Warthog that Josh presuming you know by now

    Ace afternoon, finished work got home at a decent time home alone so no1 around to nag at me watched all the racing from 2pm just me an the dog, had a 10 on Burbank my only bet but some top races there great watch

    Good to see Santini win, although didn’t feel was that impressive but it’s still a win after a bit of a break

    Warthog the only downer

    1. I disagree with the Santini comment if you look both BDM and Santini pulled 29 lengths ahead of the rest and they were not a dumbed down field, he will come on for that and will now go straight in on the Friday with just this and the other run under his belt. With a line through Lostintranslation, Santini has done all that is asked of him on soft ground with a battling opponent like BDM and I for one was impressed. Plus i had a double on him winning today and then 10/1 for the Gold Cup, so, am a little biased…haha.

      1. i wasn’t impressed with the way he finished the race. He didn’t go strong through the line to me and the Gold Cup is an extra furlong at least, the rest of the field should of been getting beat like that as none of them near grade 1 level for me

        But hope he does come on for it as was off a bit of a break, fingers crossed anyways

    2. Yep very sad. Initially thought he’d made it. Tough game at times.

      Punting wise it was one of my better track side days. Had winner of 1st on paddock inspeftion, just so much bigger than the rest and Nick W knows time of day with juveniles. Simply the Betts and winner or last as we decided those at top too short etc. So won’t complain.

      My 3m chase eyes still dodgy. Finger would have been painful but no close enough to OK Coral, trying to out think connections was foolish… Thought may be getting him hncped for Kim Muir. Two selections were naff. It will come right one day but woeful at moment as it has been for an age but on we trudge.
      Was a great card and some good stories at Donny esp Lady Buttons again.
      Josh

      1. Lady Buttons so impressive, i thought she would struggle after that tough battle finish at Xmas

        Driving me mad these Hcp chases, i seem to be coming up with all kinds of reasons for picking the winner when im reveiwing the race back after, but it doesn’t seem to be helping me trying to pick apart the next race i have a go at

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