Members Daily Post: 23/01/20 (complete)

Tipsx2 + write up, Section 2 (complete), test zone, Thyestes trainers

1.My Tips

2.Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.General messages/updates/new reports etc

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1.My Tips

Daily Chase Tips Main (2019: 24/165, 49p +16.8 ) Jumps Festival Tips (2018:+143; 2019: 6/99,27p, -45.8,)

Daily Chase Tips: Main (2020: 1/17,4p, -11.5)

(handicap chases, 2m7f+, C4+)

3.00 Gowran 

#1 – ROARING BULL – 1 point win – 12/1 (gen) UP, 5th 

#2 – BORICE – 1 point win – 14/1 (gen) UP (lost in the fog/never really in it) 

 

Best of The Blog? (test: 0/8, 3p; -8)

None.

 

2.Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

JUMPS

Fakenham

2.35 –

Vinnie The Hoodie (all Hc’s) 11/1 UP

Eclair De Guye (micro class and runs) G3 7/1 UP 6/1

3.10 –

Miss Heritage (m runs) w1 H3 I3 G3  10/3 S4 UP

Makety (all Hc’s) I3 7/1 2nd 

 

Wetherby

1.35 –

Master Newton (all Hc’s,HcH) 12/1 UP

Adelphi Prince (all Hc’s,HcH) 11/2 UP

3.20 – Beau Bay (all Hc’s) 14  w1 H1 6/1 2nd 

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3.Micro System Test Zone

January Trainers 

Sue Smith

3.20 Weth – The Paddy Pie (any odds) I3 G3 4/1 Fell (would have been 2nd)

 

Jockey Angles 2019/20

2.10 Weth – Itsamanslife (25/1<) 12/1 WON 12/1

2.35 Fake – Cougars Gold (17/2< guide) 10/1 UP

 

Chase Eye-Catchers 2019/20

3.00 Gowran – Borice (2nd run) 11/1 UP

3.20 Weth – Kilfilum Cross (2nd run) H3 9/1 UP

 

4.General messages/updates/new reports etc

3.00 Gowran: Thyestes Chase

Trainers Records (winning trainers with runners)

  • Gordon Elliot: 1/28,8 p
  • Willie Mullins: 7/49, 17p
  • Henry De Bromhead: 1/8,3p

I won’t bother listing all their runners! HDB has one (reserve I think) and Mullins/Elliot have 13 between them!

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3.00 Gowran

This is one of the handful of Irish C1 handicap chases I can’t resist attacking – a muddy handicap chase around Gowran, which can take some getting – you really do have to stay. When in doubt in a soft/heavy ground quality Irish Handicap Chase, there’s usually one man to rely on, Big Gordy. He’s only won this once but plenty of 3rd, 4ths and 5th and in the last two renewals is 1/12,4p (and 2x5ths) and it could be he’s now worked out the type of horses needed for this test/how to prepare them. 

Roaring Bull – Stewart’s pin landed on this one LTO at a monster price (he may still be propping up the bar!) and I couldn’t work out why he’s double figures here. It’s possible he’s a bit of a character although it may be no coincidence he returned to form the first time Jack Kennedy jumped on, 3rd run of season and maybe peaking. He’s injured again (i think?) but his replacement isn’t bad and I suspect he had the choice. It was a standing start LTO and Jack reported he didn’t get the initial position he wanted, suggesting to me they wanted him further forward – hopefully they have a rolling start and he races close enough to the pace. He was doing all his best work late LTO over 24f, finding plenty in the closing stages and pulling away – aged 7 he could now be peaking and this stiff 25f in soft/heavy should be right up his street. He’s still unexposed in handicaps (2/6 hncp chases) and I wanted him onside in this. IF running his race, he should get me excited on the climb to the line. 

Borice – I was impressed with him in the Galway Plate – that looked solid form to me and while he’d had plenty of chases in France, it looked like a run which suggested at some point there should be more to come. He was doing all his best work late there and Gordon reported he was worried about the ground/surprised with how good he was. His French form suggests he should be much happier on softer, and combined with a longer trip, could see him in better light. I tipped him LTO at Newbury where he didn’t run that well – ok to a point – I wonder if he didn’t put down on the ground there, i’m not sure, but that race is working out ok. Maybe he needed the run – in any case, I suspect this has been the plan since – the same connections finished 2nd in this in 2017 with Ucello Conti, with Daryl in the plate that day also. Hopefully they can go one better here. There’s a chance he’s being aimed at The Grand National but if that were the case i’m not sure why they wouldn’t keep him ticking over in hurdles, as he should be fine off 146, just about. Anyway, at 14s, I thought he was worth siding with in what look to be ‘ideal conditions’ and with solid Irish handicap form to his name already. He will race mid-division I suspect. 

Of the rest…

Well of the other big priced ones, Livelovelaugh was of some interest, although Townend must have had the choice- i’m not convinced he wants a slog and he was underwhelming enough LTO – however many of Mullins’ horses have been badly needing their first run this season. I’m not sure form behind 00 Seven at Punhcy two starts back is good enough for a race like this, but maybe i’m wrong. He’s 10 and I wasn’t sure he looked well handicapped, and certainly not open to progress really. 

Acapella Bourgeois and Chef Des Obeaux have been well found in the market, put in at prices I could leave – the former does have a question, now aged 10, lightly raced in recent years. He possibly chased home the Gold Cup winner LTO so it is solid form, but a handicap like this is a different proposition and I thought he was open to attack from something with more in hand. 6s didn’t seem overpriced to my eyes. 

Chef is an ex Henderson inmate and i’m not sure he shapes like a slogger in a race like this, run at a good tempo, stiff track, testing ground. There’s a question there for me at 13/2 and he has to prove he’s got something in hand. He ran ok LTO and made an error 3 out, but IF Roaring Bull runs his race, I wasn’t sure why he should be ahead of him in this. Clearly Mullins’ horses are to be feared generally and more so in this race but i’ll take the brave/foolish route and leave all of his!

Smoking Gun… well I’ve burnt my fingers with Joseph’s C1 handicap chasers before and until he wins one, i’m happy to take a watching brief –  he’s multi talented of course but preparing/targeting the right horse for these big Irish staying handicaps isn’t something he’s perfected as yet… 0/55, 9p in C1 handicap chases, 0/30, 3p when over 3m or further. Smoking Gun seems fancied at 5s or so but at those odds, given those stats and his inexperience (although of course that means unexposed) I can leave him also. When looking at horses this price, it makes you realise how solid Kimberlite Candy was at the same price, for example. Eventually I’ll hammer such ‘solid’ horses into my head and tip them when necessary. 

So, unlike some recent chases, I can live with any of the top 3 winning at their odds, which they may do, but none will annoy me, this time. 

Ex Patriot – he has a real stamina question for me, so no, at 9s or so. Moyhenna comes on the back of a fall although was still travelling well 3 from home in an ok handicap, is unexposed, and may be well handicapped – I wasn’t convinced really and his trainer /jockey is 0/29,6p riding here. He also has to prove his stamina in these conditions and he can also jump to his left. However this is only his 3rd handicap chase and there will be more to come at some point no doubt. He won that 21f (good) chase at Punchestown comfortably, off 10lb lower. 

So, maybe Livelovelaugh and Moyhenna were the two other interesting ones at the prices, but obviously I prefer mine. 

Bar the tips, those two above and the top 2 in the market, I was struggling to make a case for the others at the prices. The rest have plenty of questions and many just look badly out of sorts. I don’t think there are any 1st headgear/switcher horses in this that could spring a surprise (always worth looking for esp Elliots, in 1st blinkers or something) . Noel Meade is 0/24,2p in this race and his PU LTO, I can leave him also. 

So, fingers crossed one of mine can get the job done. It’s competitive stuff as these races always are. GL 

Josh 

 

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

11 Responses

  1. AW T/T

    3 runner for Thursday.

    4.30 N Blazing Dreams…B Haslam Hcp…7/2
    5.00 N Ritchie Star…B Haslam Hcp…5/1
    6.30 N Copperlight…B Haslam Hcp…7/1

    Mike

  2. ARUBA
    3.10 Fakenham Miss Heritage 11/4
    7.30 Newcastle Rebel Redemption 7/2

    FAVOURED
    12.55 Fakenham Stonebrigg Legend 5/2
    2.35 Fakenham Eceparti 10/3
    1.35 Wetherby Starplex 5/2
    4.05 Southwell Cold Shoulder 2/1
    6.00 Newcastle Hart Stopper 5/1
    Colin

  3. Mullins and Elliott are considered the best trainers in Ireland and so I understand why the bigger owners want their horses with them. I am sure that they try with their multiple runners as they want to win the races. All of the other trainers do not have the ammunition to give them a run for their money overall.
    It will be interesting to see how Mullins and Elliott go this year at Cheltenham. I do not think that they are that in front of the UK trainers at present with their horse talent? We shall see come the day.

    Nicky Henderson has his issues at present, what with Altior and Pentland Hills in particular. Altior may be feeling his age now (we all do at some time) and Pentland Hills may need another year to get to Champion Hurdle winning potential?

    A couple for Saturday, both each way at current prices, 1.50 Cheltenham, Highway One O One and 2.05 Doncaster, Eva’s Oskar.

    Good luck.

    1. Not sure with Altior Martin, I don’t think the run with Cyrname was that bad at all, Hendo surely known more for getting his horses proper ready for the festival where as Nicholls has certain horses ready for a race and that was surely the case on the day Cyrname clash.
      Actually thought Altior was coming back at the end so thought would of been really interesting to see him have a go at 3M the King George, that race possibly being too close on the calendar tho
      Hard to tell if he’s regressed any from that so would want to see him out again
      Pentland hills a strange one, poss got to the front too soon at the weekend but was looking very strong travelling up the straight in 2nd

      Hope he’s got Santini there or thereabouts tho as iv backed a few times for the Gold Cup already, looking forward to him vs Bristol D M on Sat
      And the Hcp to get stuck into that you’ve mentioned

  4. Sorry it’s late…
    15:00 Gowran Park
    BORICE 1pt win 14/1
    MICK THE JIVER 1pt win 25/1.

    Sorry , no write ups.

  5. Yes indeed, two nice winners Colin and profit on the day! A great big cheesy smile from me and a big thankyou. Well done and keep up the great work.
    Best wishes, Tom.

  6. Mark and Tom, thanks again for your kind words as always greatly appreciated, profit on the day thats all we want, however long term is always the name of the game cannot believe ARUBA for this month now
    + 41.583 points in profit 14 winners from 37 bets.
    Love the sand, why people call it god knows a 10/1 winner at Newcastle AW,pays out the same as a 10/1 winner at Cheltenham
    Colin.

  7. Couldn’t agree more Colin, in fact I am ceasing betting on midweek NH and focussing only on AW aside from Saturdays and the big meetings. Loving your work 🙂

    1. Exactly what I was going to say – with the way mid week NH has gone this season becoming an A/W convert

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