Members Daily Post: 20/01/20 (complete)

Tip x1 + write up, Section 2 (complete) , test zone

1.My Tips

2.Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.General messages/updates/new reports etc

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1.My Tips

Daily Chase Tips Main (2019: 24/165, 49p +16.8 ) Jumps Festival Tips (2018:+143; 2019: 6/99,27p, -45.8,)

Daily Chase Tips: Main (2020: 1/15,4p, -9.5)

(handicap chases, 2m7f+, C4+)

3.40 Plump – SHANAHANS TURN – 1 point win – 11/2 (gen) Fell 2nd, 4s

 

Best of The Blog? (test: 0/8, 3p; -8)

None today. 

 

2.Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

JUMPS

Plumpton

2.10 – Ding Ding (micro class) I1 G3 10/1 S1 UP

3.40 –

Antony (m class)  ES+ 9/4 S3A UR

Dylanseoghan (HcCh) 14 12/1 2nd 

4.10 –

Little Boy Boru (HcH) ES+ I1 11/2 S3A UP

Huccaby (HcH) 14/1 UP

 

Newcastle………None

 

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3.Micro System Test Zone

January Trainers

Sue Smith (any odds) (4/10,6p, +10.22 BFSP)

3.00 N – Kauto Damour I3 7/1  WON 7/1> 5/1 

3.30 N – Maxed Out King H3 I3 G1 7/2 2nd 

Lucinda Russell (any odds, 14/1< best) (2/11,4p, +4 BFSP)

3.30 N – Le Frank  I3 4/1 UP

4.00 N – Rising Marienbard G1 18/1 UP

 

Chase Angles 2019/20 

LTO Winners Starting Point (12/1<)

3.30 N – Dunly H1 G3 3/1  WON 3/1>13/8 

 

 

4.General messages/updates/new reports etc

 

3.40 P – Shannahans Turn –

I couldn’t leave this old boy in this race at 11/2 as after much pondering I concluded he could blow this lot away and 11/2 could look massive come race end – if he gets up the hill!

I’ve tipped him once I think, in 2018s Topham Chase, along with his stablemate Ultragold – another brilliant ‘hindsight forecast’  – when you’re in the rut I am it’s good for the mind to remember those bygone days when I could tip winners – (I don’t feel out of form in terms of race reading, more just that final tip decision from shortlists – I don’t wish to tot up the winners this year that were the ‘danger’ horses but I think it’s up to 5 or so and I will take a look. Donnas Diamond yesterday was another – having missed the price I should have left the race instead of throwing much and hoping some sticks, although he made 11/4 look big)

Anyway, back to this horse… he was staying on in the Topham over 2m5f in heavy that day. His last chase win was in the 2015 Galway Plate, 2m6f+ where he powered away at the end. I’m not quite sure why they’ve been buggering about with him over shorter trips this season but at last they step him back up in trip and it looks like he needs it, but of course has it to prove over this far.

Looking back too far is only of some use in these races although along with Antony he’s the only former G3+ winner in the race over fences. To his more recent history which is important… he’s been running well this season, having lost his way earlier in the year.

3 starts ago he ran well on return at Chepstow, not really fancied, over 19f in soft – outpaced, plugging on. Eceparti won that and he was thrown in, winning his next start also. He was beaten 9l there but was ‘staying on’, not going backwards. As he was at Lingfield over 20f in heavy, where he was outpaced on the turn for home and stayed on, not stopping at the line – that was a C3 Vets chase like this, and may be some indication as to his actual level now – Finnegans’s Garden beat him there but he’s hacked up again since. Uhlan Bute was well stuffed there. LTO he ran over 16f at Newbury, outpaced again – there he was beaten by the unexposed 112 rated Le Coeur Net and the 118 rated Defi Sacre – both have won since.

So, he has the ‘hot form’ and the back class. His RPRs have been solid, especially in the context of today’s oppo – 126, 129 and a 120 LTO. His mark has dropped to 118. His Top Speed figures blow most of these out the water so we shall see if that means anything!

Tizzard is in fine form and he’s 7/25, 12p in handicap chases around here. He knows what he’s doing with these veterans and he’s a dab hand at monster moves in trip from LTO, up to staying trips. The jockey is getting better with experience and knows the horse well. He generally tracks the pace and he’s jumped so well on his last three runs. I think he should enjoy lobbing along at this sort of pace – if he runs his race and stays (Galway Plate/Topham suggest he will to my eyes) I think he will take all the beating.

Of the rest..

Well he’s one of the few in here who’s been running his races and arrives in form – Morney Wing / Antony / Uhlan Bute / Loose Chips / Dylanseoghan all have mounting questions on that front to my eyes and I found it hard on recent form to make a case for any of them. Of course when they get to this age it can just be a question of what mood they are in on the day and one of them may step up. Interesting I suppose that Antony was put in so short, but I can’t have him on recent efforts and want to see a bit more – CP return, but he’s usually held up and is a Q over the going I think. But he does have some of the best career form in this, with that Ascot G3 win. Maybe he’s been running into fitness after his long absence. The fact they rock up in a race like this ‘could’ suggest connections think he’s on the downgrade, or they want to get his confidence back. He’s interesting but looked short.

That leaves the main danger…

Tzar De Lelfe – who we were on LTO when winning – he can be sticky at his fences but he has course form and stays – and runs in a vets race- I can’t say 3s is over priced but he may be the only one to a) run his race b) get up the hill – and obv that would be enough. This is deeper than LTO and Tractor Fred hasn’t franked the form. It was slow motion stuff that day, to the naked eye anyway. Shanahans recent races have been much hotter for me. Uallrightharry may well have been coming to win that race but for falling and he ran a cracker NTO in the Sussex National here, behind Christmas In April, who should take all the beating in the 2.40 at 5/6 or so. It has paid to just back my danger horses but I can leave him for tipping purposes at 3s. The selection looks far more interesting at 11/2. Cue the hindsight forecast…

Pace/running style…

Shanahans Turn has the pace to lead this lot over this trip I suspect but may let Loose Chips/Uhlan Bute get on with it – he should have no problem tracking them in 3rd in a no excuses position for me. If he can pop away around here I can dream of him powering away over the last few as the others go backwards- he runs now as if he will just keep on galloping.

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Bar a fall i’d be surprised if Christmas In April doesnt hack up in the 2.40, and he may make 5/6 look big, but we were on LTO which was the time to catch him for now and I’ll just watch it with interest.

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

8 Responses

  1. AW T/T

    No winner Sunday.

    2 runners Monday

    1.20 K…Cool Echo…J Jenkins Dist…20/1
    1.50K…Mitty’s Smile…A Watson Hcp…28/1

    Mike

  2. TIP TOP
    4.20 Kempton Double Legend 2/1
    5.55 Wolverhampton Toro Dorado 7/4

    ARUBA
    1.50 Kempton Miss Thoughtful 13/2
    4.50 Kempton Accessor 2/1
    5.55 Wolverhampton Toro Dorado 7/4

    MAX BETS
    5.55 Wolverhampton Toro Dorado 7/4

    COLINS BETS and FAVOURED
    No bets
    Colin

  3. Being a quite Monday will pass on another racing experience down memory lane, will only be bullet points for had thought about a book so could be long, so the shortened version.
    Trip to Newmarket 1989 for the Cambridge meeting
    Trainer Chris Thornton had a horse called Apache who he trained for Guy Reed.
    Adviced to back horse first time at Ripon won 7/1 head in chest job, they said it could be good, progressed to winning a Listed race at Newmarket in 1989.
    Decided to go and see it run on the Wedsneday and set off on Tuesday for wanted to stop one night so could be on the gallops early weds to see them train, turned up at Newmarket no accomodation, ended up on a mattress on the floor for £8!!!
    Old boy of 80 in the lounge that evening asked if i had car, good he said you can take me to the course in the morning, remember cursing to myself for was going to walk the mile or so for do not drink and drive, turned out he was a gateman, so got in free well was full of it with Apache, in Josh’s words cockey springs to mind, anyway he had to be there for 11am.
    Only went for one night ended up staying five thankfully won enough and ended staying in the Rutland hotel at £50 per night met Guy Reed’s men and had a fantastic night at a night club.
    Well Apache won and all the gate men backed him, and for 4 days had free entry to the course and strutted around if owning the place.
    On Saturday Pat Eddery provided the entertainment for whatever horse he was on planted it hooves into the ground and Pat was pushing and shooving and he could not get it to move and this was right in front of the main grandstand, all the racegoers were laughing, anyway i was walking along near the bookmakers watching the antics on the course and bumped into a lovely lady and got chatting, she asked if i had been down for the 4 day meeting which she had, she then promptly said if i fancied going across for the Arc for they had room on their plane, sadly did not have my passport, what could have been!!!
    Matress on floor Dawn’ husband in nick for drug pushing
    Her brother was head lad at Clive Britains yard so had a private visit round the yard, had a few beers with the lads in the football club one night and they were all shouting about Pirate Army for the following years Derby, which it did not win, and if i had backed everything given that night would have been bankrupt.
    Had 30 mins in the sales which recommend a visit when you can.
    Had breakfast every morning in John Lowe’s brothers cafe where a young apprentice Frankie Dettori ate every morning.
    The head of security at Newmarket retired police inspector gave me one of Harry Wragg’s fancies and it romped home.
    Tips from the lads never trust them for at the time counted 7 or 8 bookmakers in the town so for me that tells a story.
    Well hope you enjoyed the condensed version much more happened one night into five, ended up having to buy extra clothes, but a fantastic experience.
    Colin.

    1. Superb Colin.
      What a shame you didn’t have your passport, who knows what adventures you’d have embarked on!
      Not much has changed in those Newmarket Pubs, i’ve been in a few the odd time in recent years and you would certainly go skint listening to all the stable staff ‘tipping’ x, y and z! No doubt the odd nugget but appears you got yourself in the right circles at the time. Brilliant.
      Josh

      1. The pub that i met Dawn in was the Rising Sun which the retired police inspector said was the drug pub of Newmarket and they would rather have the drugs contained to one pub, he knew her and her husband.
        I have never touched drugs so this was an eye opner for me.
        Another pub can remember not its name going up the high street it was on the left, Steve Smith Eccles and John Francome was at the bar, quick word with Steve because he was born about 8 miles from me, after about 30 mins they moved on.
        Yes the passport, sadly not to be, did not know who she was, amazing feeling walking all the course for four days and not having a badge on and no areas were restricted to me, it was one of those times meant to be.

  4. AW T/T
    No winners Monday.

    3 runner for Tuesday.

    4.40 N Aidens Reward…B Haslam Hcp…6/1
    6.15 N Fortamour…B Haslam Hcp…3/1
    7.15 N The Bull…B Haslam Hcp…12/1

    Mike

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