Members Daily Post: 19/01/20 (complete)

best of tip + tip x1, Section 2 (complete), test zone

1.My Tips

2.Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.General messages/updates/new reports etc

*

1.My Tips

Daily Chase Tips Main (2019: 24/165, 49p +16.8 ) Jumps Festival Tips (2018:+143; 2019: 6/99,27p, -45.8,)

Daily Chase Tips: Main (2020: 1/14,4p, -8.5)

(handicap chases, 2m7f+, C4+)

2.25 Ayr – SAMSTOWN – 1 point win – 8/1 (bet365/Lad/WH) 15/2 (others) PU

that’s all for main tips today, as of 09.14… write ups at bottom of post…

 

Best of The Blog? (test: 0/8, 3p; -8)

3.00 Ayr – TALKOFGOLD – 1 point win – 7/1 (bet365) 13/2 (gen) NR

that’s all for today, as of 09.48

 

2.Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

JUMPS

Ayr

2.25 – Teddy Tee (HcCh) w1 H1 I3 G3 4/1 S4 UP

3.00 – Talkofgold (micro age) w2 H1 I3 G1 13/2 S4 (S1 IF 11.00+ BFSP)

*

 

TTP Chase Micros

2.25 Ayr – Teddy Tee (any odds, 5/1< best) H1 I3 G3 4/1 UP

 

*

Please Read: All information regarding the members club and how to engage in the content, inc Videos. Inc contact info, research articles and much more can be found HERE>>>

*

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

Chase Angles 2019/20

2.25 Ayr – Donnas Delight I1 3/1 WON 3/1>2/1 

3.00 Ayr – Aloomomo H3 I1 6/4

 

4.General messages/updates/new reports etc

2.25 Ayr – Samstown –

8s for the only real ‘been there and done it’ horse (inc heavy / track / distance),  who also won LTO, looked too big here to my eyes. Yes he is 13 but he’s been lightly raced in recent years and it was only 11 runs ago (Jan 15!) that he was winning a G2 at Haydock. Clearly he’s nowhere near that level any more but in 1st blinkers LTO he powered up the Kelso hill and while it wasn’t a brilliant race, he was beating in form rivals. He just gallops and stays and this could be such hard work today – heavy ground, with frost – holding/sticky – they could be going up and down on the spot here and I thought he could keep going whereas that’s a question for many in here. The blinkers do have to work again which is a risk and he needs to hold a position – but in these conditions I thought that was likely. He travelled well and jumped well under his inexperienced pilot LTO and IF he runs his race he should be staying on at the end – over 3m3f 69 yards.

A case could be made to just leave the race alone I suppose, given there are 4 unexposed one’s in here- but they all have questions.

Donna’s Delight looks the most interesting – but he hasn’t won for a while – he does shape as if this test may be what he wants, (related to Knockanrawley also) but in heavy he has it to prove – he’s had a wind op which may help, the CP have been removed, the yard are in fine form and he drops in class-  his rating is looking good now also – so I can see why he’s been backed but he looks short now, given he’s plenty to prove – he also carries his head a bit high – i’m not sure if that’s an attitude issue or not but with 11/4 shots you don’t want any doubts. If he were 9/2 +  i’d have been pondering plenty but he’s been well found.

Speak of The Devil has chases in him but needs to tidy up his jumping – he does keep hitting the odd one. Again he has stamina to prove over a testing 27+ furlong, and at 7/2 or so I wanted to take him on also.

Diamond Brig is unexposed but may come on for this run also after returning after 600+ runs LTO, and again has a few questions also. 4s or so didn’t seem overly generous for him either.

So, maybe one of those three will slog this out but none are bombproof in these conditions and could all fall in a hole late on. Teddy Tea I was happy to leave given he finds it hard to win, he can hit a fence, has a big weight to lug around and a stamina q also. It could be he’s best fresh.

Another Emotion is being backed – I don’t quite understand that bar the fact he’s lightly raced. I thought he was outstayed at Sedgefield and i’ve no idea what happened LTO. The yard are still a bit hit and miss, so I could leave him.

Pace/Running style… well it depends how quick they go but I hope Samstown can hold a position and if he runs his race he will just keep going. Hopefully the blinkers work again but at 8s, given the questions for the rest, I thought he was worth chancing.

*

3.00- Talkofgold –

One for the ‘best of the blog’ test, and it’s very much that, but I thought she looked solid here. She’s unexposed, races prominently and just keeps going. I’m generally not a big fan of ‘hexham form’ but any trip around there in heavy takes some getting and I thought that was a positive for this test today – while that wasn’t a great race the two in behind have come out and won since. She ran well at Kelso, splitting unexposed 120+ horses, and drops back into a C4 here, with plenty of older legs opposing. She shows up well on the ratings also, particularly HRB/GG. She can take some kicking and shoving but she responds and just keeps going – Danny Cook is the perfect rider for her and he’s riding at the top of his game.

Aloomomo – he may follow up again given his back class but he runs 7 days later and while he won easily to the eye LTO it may have taken something out of him – this is a different test and he’s had issues. But he may take some stopping again, if seeing it out off this big weight.

*

 

Share on facebook
Facebook
Share on twitter
Twitter
Share on pinterest
Pinterest
Share on linkedin
LinkedIn
Share on telegram
Telegram

Post Comments

Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

9 Responses

  1. AW T/T

    2 welcome winners on Sat, 5.7 and 5.1 bfsp not the biggest of prizes but winners all the same.

    1 runner for Sunday.

    3.10 W Boom the Groom…T Carroll Dist…4/1

    Mike

  2. I’ve been trying to educate myself about AW and with the help of geegeez gold i hope i’m gradually getting a little better informed so on what is a sparse day on the turf i had a good look through the Wolves card and i think i might have found one that will at least outrun it’s odds.
    12-50. Conkering Hero 25-1 b365, drops back to 13.5f after struggling over 2m last 3 runs , wide draw should not be a problem and likes to run prominently so should be able to get in behind front running fav Wanaasah. Claimer on board put’s him 4lb below last winning mark and he has won at Wolves in the past.
    Now watch him miss the break and come plum last 🙂

    1. out to 40’s now in places so i thought what the hell le’s pick 3 more biggies and have an ew L15 🙂
      W 1-25. Mans Not Trot 40-1 +
      A 4-00. Letemgo 12-1
      T 3-50. Hash Brown 22-1

      1. Hi Martin
        You should pop over to the freepost where you can join a shambolic coterie of AW fans who have the odd nice touch 🙂

    1. Yes maybe I’ve taken leave of my senses, probably a sign of my issues, but every horse has a price and trying to be ‘rigid’ in my mind with loose ‘rules’ isn’t the way forward. We will find out soon enough. I won’t make a habit of doing it too often! Maybe a reaction from not also tipping the one solid ‘been there and done it’ horse in the Peter Marsh.
      He did win very well LTO, just a case of whether he repeats it as he should be in there pitching if he does.

      1. Just a light-hearted look at 13yr olds running in a 5yo+ long dist hcp ch on a Sunday.
        dist. 3M-4M.5 last 17 years.
        under 20/1

        bets 78 wins 17= 21.79%
        ROI(BF) 240
        it can happen :). in fact, the last two runners, 2nd and first, 6/1 – 16/1.
        Check out any other day. any other age.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published.