Members Daily Post: 18/01/20 (complete)

Video preview…Tip x1, ITV ‘through the card’, Section 2 (complete), test zone

1.My Tips

2.Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.General messages/updates/new reports etc

*

1.My Tips

Daily Chase Tips Main (2019: 24/165, 49p +16.8 ) Jumps Festival Tips (2018:+143; 2019: 6/99,27p, -45.8,)

Daily Chase Tips: Main (2020: 1/13,4p, -7.5)

(handicap chases, 2m7f+, C4+)

#1 2.40 Hayd – RED INDIAN – 1 point win – 9/1 (Bet365/WH) 8/1 (gen) UP

 

as of 08.30, that’s all for today. Video preview at bottom of post 

 

Best of The Blog? (test: 0/8, 3p; -8)

None.. i’m trying to generally stick with those horses listed on this page (anywhere) that have a H1/H3, are generally unexposed/open to progress etc – and nothing really I fancy on that front today – i’ve looked through the trends races also – but as it’s quiet i’ll do an ‘ITV through the card’ and see how that goes!

 

2.Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

JUMPS

Ascot

2.25 –

Jolly’s Cracked It (all Hc’s) G1 12/1 S1 3rd

Pic D’Orhy (HcH) 14  I3 7/2 UP

 

Haydock

12.55 – Bonne Question (micro going) H3 I1 8/1 UP

2.40 – Champers On Ice (HcCh) w2 H3 I3 9/1 UP

3.45 – Ubaltique (m dist) 14/1 UP

4.15 – King Uther (m going) 9/1 

 

Taunton

1.05 – Et Apres Thou (m dist) 14,30 8/1 UP

1.40 – Khanisari (m runs) 22/1 S2A UP

3.55 – Inch Lala (m runs) 11/1 UP

 

*

Please Read: All information regarding the members club and how to engage in the content, inc Videos. Inc contact info, research articles and much more can be found HERE>>>

*

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

January Trainers 

Sue Smith (any odds) 

12.55 Hayd – Flamboyant Joyaux H3 G3 5/2 2nd 

2.40 Hayd – Vintage Clouds G3 8/1 WON 8/1>7/1 

4.15 Hayd- Silva Eclipse H3 11/1 WON 11/1>4/1 

 

Lucinda Russell (any, 14/1< best) 

12.55 Hayd – Vengeur De Guye I3 20/1 UP

 

Chase Angles 2019/20 

LTO Winners Starting Point (12/1<) 

1.15 Ascot – Nearly Perfect H1 I3 G1 2/1 UP

3.45 Hayd – Ard Chros  12/1 UP

 

Trainers

2.40 Hayd- Geronimo 13/2 3rd 

3.00 Ascot – Kayf Adventure (14/1<) 16/1 (shortening) 3rd 

3.35 Ascot – Defi Du Seuil (14/1<) H1 I1 G3 10/11 WON 11/10 

3.45 Hayd – Sir Egbert 12/1 UP

3.55 Taunt – Loveherandleaveher (10/1<) H3 I1 G3 15/8 2nd 

 

Chase Eye-Catchers 2019/20 

1.15 Ascot – Barbrook Star (3rd run) I3 6/1  UP

2.40 Hayd – Midnight Tune (1st run) 13/2 UP

3.00 Ascot – Kayf Adventure (3rd run) 16/1 3rd

 

4.General messages/updates/new reports etc

Sat Big Race Trends/Trainer Pointers

(from the Thursday trends post…) 

2.40 Hayd – Peter Marsh 

Stats/Trends

The 15/15 stats only remove four, leaving…

Acting Lass / Definitly Red / Midnight Tune / Champers On Ice / Vintage Clouds / Flying Angel 

All 6 have run at G1/2 level which is a positive. Being heavily beaten LTO has been a positive in this race – maybe not having a hard race or going up in weights isn’t a pos going into this or maybe it’s just an illogical ‘trend’ to be treated with caution. Within the stats above those that WON LTO are 1/10, 3p (Midnight Tune) The well stuffed ones from the list above…

Definitly Red / Vintage Clouds WON 8/1 / Flying Angel 

Trainers (to have won race with runners) 

(just backing the Sue Smith runners in this hasn’t been a bad approach… 4/14, 9p, +14) 

  • Prime Venture 
  • Champers On Ice 
  • Vintage Clouds WON 8/1
  • Flying Angel 

 

2.25 Ascot: G3 Handicap Hurdle

Stats/Trends 

There are only 8 runners in this race and the fewer the runners possibly the less relevant this sort of approach can be. (esp in sense races may not be truly run etc) However  10/10 through to 8/10 stats  (inc 5 and 6 YO) leave 7/10 winners (7/22 runners, 10p, +92) and just leave one… 

Bold Plan 

Trainers (to have won race with runners) 

  • Pic DOrhy 
  • Bold Plan 
  • Ballymoy 
  • Soul Emotion 

 

3.00 Ascot 

Stats/Trends

The 15/15 through to 13/15 stats leave 10/15 winners (10/35 runners, 13p, +58 BFSP) and leaves…

  • Espoir De Guye 
  • Sams Adventure 
  • Aintree My Dream 

Trainers (to have won race with runners) 

  • Espoir De Guye 

*

ITV ‘through the card’ (x4… 6/27,11p,-4.6)

1.50 A – Papagana – 9/4 UP

2.05 H – Thebannerkingrebel – 5/4 UP

2.25 A – Song For Someone – 11/1 2nd 

2.40 H – Red Indian (main tip)- 6/1 UP

3.00 A – Espoire De Guye – 5/2

3.15 H – Ballyandy – 7/2 WON 7/2>5/2 

3.35 A – Defi Du Seuil – 5/6 WON 11/10 

2/5, 3, +1.6 

**

Peter Marsh Preview Video

 

 

 

Share on facebook
Facebook
Share on twitter
Twitter
Share on pinterest
Pinterest
Share on linkedin
LinkedIn
Share on telegram
Telegram

Post Comments

Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

26 Responses

  1. AW T/T

    No winners Friday. It has been a quiet spell but they do pop up.

    5 runners on Sat.

    12.30 L Precence Process…P Phelan Dist…4/1
    6.45 C Brains…J Osbourne Cl…5/2
    7.15 C Ultimate Avenue…D Simcock Hcp…7/2
    Papa Stour…S Williams Cl…9/4
    7.45 C Vexed…D Simcock Hcp…7/2

    Not the most inspiring of prices but a winner at any price would be welcome.

    Mike

  2. Thoughts to 2moz-
    Initial thought for the main race Clarence House was that if BG rides Defi brave and times it spot on then he should win a bit more cosy than last time as obviously has a great turn of foot but didn’t last long and was nearly caught. Unsure if the softer ground added to that tho slowing him down as didn’t seem to be the case last season, was staying on stronger than has did in that last race. So would be a worry if the ground is as described going up again with Un de Sceaux proven in bad ground if Defis speed blunted. Should be another good watch

    Went through the Ascot 3pm and even tho it’s a big hike for the fav if you watch that last run over C+D then I’m thinking it ain’t going to stop Espoir de Guye, 4/1 maybe not so bad with how impressive he was last time
    Unsure with the form of the 2nd fav and Happy Diva back out soon enough for me after 2 full on races

    And then Haydock 2.40 thought quite a poor race, ruled most of the field out fairly quickly to my eyes. Interest in Prime Venture after going well last race but that was only just before new year, trip poss a bit sharp and claimer puts me off aswel.
    Would normally try for something lower in the weights in this ground but the form of Midnight tune hard to way up in small fields, others strange preps or other put offs
    Been haggling between Def Red and Vintage Clouds. VC won at the track, racing weight down from last time which should help and at last winning mark, just seems well off the pace last few runs always making late headway which I’m unsure of
    Def Red is racing well, good run last out in the Becher which the form looks strong, is he good enough still to give a stone away tho here??
    Has won a couple of class 1s tho in heavy ground, and bit more of a break than most in this so would side with him hopefully he can race prominent in a bit lesser company, tough task tho top W

    Think might do the 2 singles and a double fingers crossed

    1. Vintage Clouds has a poor win record over fences and so I would not want to back him these days.

      I do like Dr Newland on a Saturday in a handicap – 3.25 Taunton, Theo.

      Hendo’s are worth a go at a price on a Saturday. 2.25 Ascot, Soul Emotion and 3.35 Ascot Janika.

      I do like Defi, more than Mt Geraghty, who to me is a bit gung ho when he needs to stay calm.

      Anyway, good luck today.

      1. GL Martin..

        Can you flesh out the Newland in a Saturday handicap angle please? It is just a general observation or a more specific micro… as his Saturday stats don’t jump out at me having just looked … well 29/233, 73p since start 2015 in all Sat handicaps, AE 0.86, but is +42 BFSP … but the day doesn’t stand out above other days of the week from what i can see, but assume you may have unearthed something…

        Josh

        1. I am not going back too far these days in time as I see the game evolving quicker than before. To be preciser and not completely vague I have Dr Newland in handicaps on Saturdays and ‘big days’ (such as meetings at Cheltenham and Kempton at Christmas, Aintree etc) in the last 12 months. All runners. BFSP better than SP but no record of early prices.

  3. Would anybody know if Danny Cook has to ride for Sue Smith or would he have the choice of the 2 horses asking for a friend

    1. I was discussing this with Josh last night. Personally I think he has the choice and he was on Red 2 years ago in the Cotswold when Wakanda won the SkyBet with Henry on although that was a graded race versus a handicap so we don’t know for sure.

  4. a few today,
    Ascot.
    2-25. Ballymoy 6-1
    3-00. Kayf Adventure 22-1
    Haydock.
    2-40. Geromino 13-2
    4-15. Silver Eclipse 12-1
    Taunton.
    2-50. Royal Vacation 11-2 1pt win
    3-25. Limited Reserve 9-1
    all 1/2 p[t ew unless stated
    a couple at Navan for shrapnel.
    2-30. Spancil Hill 20-1
    3-05. Ministerforsport 25-1

  5. Busy Saturday for me:
    Ballymoy Ascot 14:25 1pt e/w
    Vintage Clouds Haydock 14:40 1pt e/w
    Muratello Haydock 15:45 1pt e/w
    Everlanes Taunton 15:55 1.5pt win

      1. Thanks. Kicking myself for not tipping Thomas Darby but not a bad day at the office. I’ve had a total of 9 bets in January. Less is more.

  6. TIP TOP
    No bet

    FAVOURED
    2.25 Ascot Ballymoy 6/1
    3.20Lingfield Highland Acclaim 6/1

    MAX BETS
    2.25 Ascot Ballymoy 6/1

    1. GL Colin… I thought Max Bets were when a horse appeared 2 or more times on your angles on here? Or do I have that wrong/he crops up elsewhere also?

      1. Josh well spotted unable to give you the prize already drunk it HA HA
        It is a bonus for it is an Elite bet as well as Favoured so even though an error will have to include it in the results.
        To much on my mind for Neil wants a write up for Elite for advertising purpose also knackered for danced 4 nights out of 7 which must have been a solid 12 hours dancing, in total thats also including the 263 miles walked this month at the end of Friday not bad for 65, and 2 stone lost in 6 months,easy just like picking winners, whoops here i go again cockey Col.HA HA
        Cheers
        Colin

  7. COLINS BETS
    Chelmsford
    4.45 Sagittarian Wind 7/2
    7.15 Glory Of Paris 5/1

    ARUBA
    4.15 Haydock Takingrisks 9/1
    7.15 Chelmsford Strawberry Jack 11/4
    Colin

  8. Sorry no write ups.
    13:55 NAVAN
    DOLCIANO DICI 1pt win 8/1 gen
    COKO BEACH 1pt win 8/1 gen
    14:25
    SONG FOR SOMEONE 1pt win 11/1 gen
    BALLYMOY 1pt win 13/2 gen
    14:40 HAYDOCK
    VINTAGE CLOUDS 8/1 gen 1pt win
    PRIME VENTURE 6/1 gen 1pt win
    15:00 ASCOT
    SAMS ADVENTURE 11/2 gen 1pt win
    KAYF ADVENTURE 12/1 gen 1pt win

    may have a dabble at write ups later, but, as its late and I have a lot to do, can`t guarantee.

  9. E/W Lucky 15.
    Ascot 2.25 Song For Someone 10/1
    Ascot 3.00 Happy Diva 15/2
    H/ock 3.45 Fiddlers Bow 20/1
    H/ock 4.15 Takingrisks 10/1.

  10. Well the error in the 2.25 Ascot on Ballymoy did not win, sadly on RTP the other bet for Elite was Thomas Darby which won at 10/1 which was widely available.
    Sorry to anyone who backed Ballymoy because of Max Bets.
    Colin

  11. I’ve been out all day and only just managed to watch the race but as someone who has followed him over the past few years tipping him when he went close I’m totally over the moon to see Vintage Clouds finally win a big race his class deserves.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published.