From the members’ post…
Daily Chase Tips: Main
(handicap chases, 2m7f+, C4+)
1.10 Chep – ON THE ROAD – 1 point win – 9/1 (gen)
This horse has been shaping as though he’s returning back to form and at some point will decimate a poor race from this mark. He is 10 but his last two runs have been promising and it looks as though he’s spent an age suffering from a golden spell in 2017, where he couldn’t stop running well in both hurdles and chases. His last chase win was in March 2017 off 123, going up to 130. He’s now on 107 and while clearly not a 130 animal anymore, when it clicks again in his conditions, he will be winning again. Plenty of his form from those races reads well and I think the slower the better form him now. He’s a win on heavy at Uttoxeter over fences and decent runs over hurdles. This going stick is 3.3 on the chase course which is low – suggesting it could be very very heavy. I’ve a suspicion/hope he may have the time of his life on this ground and will just keep going, unlike plenty others in here who have questions over the going, inc a few fancied ones. In that ‘hot’ spell he was thrown into The Welsh National, which is some indication as to what connections thought at the time.
Adam Wedge returns to the plate today which I hope is significant and one of the reasons that tempted me in. He’s 3/8,4p on him, 2/3,2p over fences, and jumps on for the first time since December 18. He’s been ridden by inexperienced riders in that time – I suspect to get his mark down, and he’s a safe horse to give said jockeys experience, inc Evan’s two girls. But I think a pro/exp jockey on may be what this horse needs. (all his wins under Paul Moloney and then Adam Wedge)
The Cheekpieces look important also – they were put on at the beginning of his winning streak in 2017, were then removed for an age and returned two starts ago. He ran an eye-catching race at Ludlow in a ladies hurdle – that was a strong pace over too short a trip but he finished the race as if he’d just had a racecourse gallop – Eleanor is very inexperienced and in part looked to be holding on/didn’t ‘ride’ him in a finish. Swop the jockey on the winner and I suspect he’d have hacked up, and he wouldn’t be 9s here today. This horse once chased home Skykes at Ffos Las in a hncp hurdle, the front two miles clear- he was very smart when last in form.
Last time out at Uttoxeter he returned to fences and was travelling/shaping well before he guessed at one (out of sync with Isobel in the plate) – it was a long way out in the race where we had the winner, but he was moving with some menace – and if standing up I suspect ‘could’ have been ahead of The Ogle Goggle Man who reposes here.
The yard have also hit some form in the last 14 days, 3/23, 8p, having been 0/18,4p in the 16 days before that.
Pace wise… well the only thing missing that I like in chases is that he doesn’t usually race ‘up there’ but in this ground, where they may go slow, it may not matter- esp given how well handicapped he could be in these conditions. In any case the odds allowed the play and there isn’t loads of pace in here – something could try and steal it from the front. I don’t think that will be a reason for defeat and LTO he’d moved up into a close 4th with a mile or so to go.
Well at the prices there’s nothing in here which will annoy me – which is a question i’ve started asking myself in the hope of landing on a few more, and not mentioning said horses as the first ‘danger’ horses in the write up. (too many of them have been winning)
Most of them have questions in heavy – more so unknowns – but a slog is a question for Alminar and I don’t like the 60+ days off and 1st Blink – he is unexposed though but I could leave him at 7/2 The Ogle Gogle Man is solid and a repeat of LTO may be enough, but he tired late there and in this ground there could be stronger stayers – he is still 2lb above his last winning mark also. Again he can beat me at 4s or so.
Toryed Y Melin is unexposed yet inexperienced and Heavy is a complete unknown really – he’s a maiden under rules, but with plenty of point experience (although only 1/12, and most of those on good ground). Maybe heavy is what he’s always wanted but he’s up in class, rated 94 and at 6s i’ll live with him beating me also.
I may be doing well to get the top 3 in the market beaten but none of them jump out at me as overpriced, even at that end. No Kimberlite Candy’s there I don’t think!
Lac Sacre has almost doubled in price since I was looking – he is inconsistent and 11. He’s also now on his highest mark since March 2016 and has 12lb more actual weight on his back than LTO, which ‘could’ make a difference in this ground, if it’s as testing as described (Newbury was nowhere near heavy a couple of days back). That wasn’t a great race either that he won. I can leave him also but he’s fit and in-form, which can count for plenty in races like this.
Big Meadow and Silent Steps just seem a bit out of sorts at the moment and I was happy to leave them. The visor may work wonders for Silent Steps but this is her first run on officially Heavy ground. So, guessing there really.
Hugos Reflection and Adherence both have questions in Heavy and the former has a stamina Q also, the latter has a ‘yard form’ Q with the Vaughan team 2/33 in last 30 days, 0/11,0p last 14. The race he won at Taunton was weak also.
I think that leaves Albertos Dream who of the other big priced ones is interesting to a point I think – but he was poor on stable debut LTO, although he may have badly needed it. Heavy ground is no problem for him but he is 3lb above his last winning mark. I want to see more from the Katy Price team also, although one ran ok at MR yesterday but now 0/47, 4p in the last 90 days.
So, fingers crossed it all clicks for On The Road in these conditions and with Wedge back on – with any luck that’s a sign. I can dream of him costing into this hard held approaching the last (which is 2 out today, the last omitted) and outstaying them all in the ground.