Members Daily Post: 17/01/20 (complete)

Tip x1 (+write up) , Section 2 (complete), test zone

1.My Tips

2.Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.General messages/updates/new reports etc

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1.My Tips

Daily Chase Tips Main (2019: 24/165, 49p +16.8 ) Jumps Festival Tips (2018:+143; 2019: 6/99,27p, -45.8,)

Daily Chase Tips: Main (2020: 1/12,4p, -6.5)

(handicap chases, 2m7f+, C4+)

1.10 Chep – ON THE ROAD – 1 point win – 9/1 (BetfS/PP/BV) 17/2 (WH) 8/1 (others)  3rd, 9/1>7/1… decent run as expected and exciting for most of the way – he travelled well again, and looked like he may be bang there, but then the two unexposed ones/younger legs pulled away/kept going better, handling the ground fine which was an unknown for both. The winner had some decent form indicating he was well handicapped, 7/2 with 60+ days, ground Q, 1st blinkers was too short for me, and with inexp jockey on – but on form/profile he was entitled to do that if it all clicked. Troeyd Y Melin is clearly well handicapped, that form has a solid look to it behind that winner – who had form with Top And Drop, Horatio Hornblower and others who were well handicapped/have won since, when he bumped into them. On The Road could get into a 0-105 , carrying overweight/12st, and they should find a weak race for him – that effort would win plenty of low grade chases, although always danger bumps into one or two working way up through rankings. Another solid ‘hindsight EW bet’ 🙁 

that’s all for main tips, as of 08.59, write up at bottom of post…

 

Best of The Blog? (test: 0/8, 3p; -8)

None today.

 

2.Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

JUMPS

Chepstow

3.20 –

Pink Legend (micro distance) w2 H3 I3 11/2 2nd 

Skewiff (m age) I3 10/1 UP

 

Musselburgh

1.20 –

Lastofthecosmics (HcH) 10/1 UP

Animore (HcH) w1 H3 G3 I3 4/1 S4 UP

 

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Please Read: All information regarding the members club and how to engage in the content, inc Videos. Inc contact info, research articles and much more can be found HERE>>>

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3.Micro System Test Zone

January Trainers 

Lucinda Russell (any odds, 14/1< best)

3.30 Muss – Izzys Champion 13/2 WON 13/2> 9/1 

 

Chase Angles 2019/20

LTO winning trainers 

1.20 Muss – Animore (12/1< guide) H3 G3 I3 4/1 UP

 

Jockey Angles 2019/20 

1.10 Chep – Albertos Dream 16/1UP

 

4.General messages/updates/new reports etc

Advised Strategies : New Report HERE>>>

The report above looks back at the ‘advised’ strategies for last year/recent years and a look ahead for 2020 and where you could focus, if either wanting to focus on a systematic approach, or as starting points etc. There’s also the table on the relationship between win strike rate and losing runs. I will move this report into the Welcome Post link also. 

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Trends Thursday Post HERE>>>

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Write up… 

On The Road…

This horse has been shaping as though he’s returning back to form and at some point will decimate a poor race from this mark. He is 10 but his last two runs have been promising and it looks as though he’s spent an age suffering from a golden spell in 2017, where he couldn’t stop running well in both hurdles and chases. His last chase win was in March 2017 off 123, going up to 130. He’s now on 107 and while clearly not a 130 animal anymore, when it clicks again in his conditions, he will be winning again. Plenty of his form from those races reads well and I think the slower the better form him now. He’s a win on heavy at Uttoxeter over fences and decent runs over hurdles. This going stick is 3.3 on the chase course which is low – suggesting it could be very very heavy. I’ve a suspicion/hope he may have the time of his life on this ground and will just keep going, unlike plenty others in here who have questions over the going, inc a few fancied ones. In that ‘hot’ spell he was thrown into The Welsh National, which is some indication as to what connections thought at the time. 

Adam Wedge returns to the plate today which I hope is significant and one of the reasons that tempted me in. He’s 3/8,4p on him, 2/3,2p over fences, and jumps on for the first time since December 18. He’s been ridden by inexperienced riders in that time – I suspect to get his mark down, and he’s a safe horse to give said jockeys experience, inc Evan’s two girls. But I think a pro/exp jockey on may be what this horse needs. (all his wins under Paul Moloney and then Adam Wedge) 

The Cheekpieces look important also – they were put on at the beginning of his winning streak in 2017, were then removed for an age and returned two starts ago. He ran an eye-catching race at Ludlow in a ladies hurdle – that was a strong pace over too short a trip but he finished the race as if he’d just had a racecourse gallop – Eleanor is very inexperienced and in part looked to be holding on/didn’t ‘ride’ him in a finish. Swop the jockey on the winner and I suspect he’d have hacked up, and he wouldn’t be 9s here today. This horse once chased home Skykes at Ffos Las in a hncp hurdle, the front two miles clear- he was very smart when last in form. 

Last time out at Uttoxeter he returned to fences and was travelling/shaping well before he guessed at one (out of sync with Isobel in the plate) – it was a long way out in the race where we had the winner, but he was moving with some menace – and if standing up I suspect ‘could’ have been ahead of The Ogle Goggle Man who reposes here.  

The yard have also hit some form in the last 14 days, 3/23, 8p, having been 0/18,4p in the 16 days before that. 

Pace wise… well the only thing missing that I like in chases is that he doesn’t usually race ‘up there’ but in this ground, where they may go slow, it may not matter- esp given how well handicapped he could be in these conditions. In any case the odds allowed the play and there isn’t loads of pace in here – something could try and steal it from the front. I don’t think that will be a reason for defeat and LTO he’d moved up into a close 4th with a mile or so to go. 

The dangers? 

Well at the prices there’s nothing in here which will annoy me – which is a question i’ve started asking myself in the hope of landing on a few more, and not mentioning said horses as the first ‘danger’ horses in the write up. (too many of them have been winning)  

Most of them have questions in heavy – more so unknowns – but a slog is a question for Alminar and I don’t like the 60+ days off and 1st Blink – he is unexposed though but I could leave him at 7/2 The Ogle Gogle Man is solid and a repeat of LTO may be enough, but he tired late there and in this ground there could be stronger stayers – he is still 2lb above his last winning mark also. Again he can beat me at 4s or so. 

Toryed Y Melin is unexposed yet inexperienced and Heavy is a complete unknown really – he’s a maiden under rules, but with plenty of point experience (although only 1/12, and most of those on good ground). Maybe heavy is what he’s always wanted but he’s up in class, rated 94 and at 6s i’ll live with him beating me also. 

I may be doing well to get the top 3 in the market beaten but none of them jump out at me as overpriced, even at that end. No Kimberlite Candy’s there I don’t think!

Lac Sacre has almost doubled in price since I was looking – he is inconsistent and 11. He’s also now on his highest mark since March 2016 and has 12lb more actual weight on his back than LTO, which ‘could’ make a difference in this ground, if it’s as testing as described (Newbury was nowhere near heavy a couple of days back). That wasn’t a great race either that he won. I can leave him also but he’s fit and in-form, which can count for plenty in races like this. 

Big Meadow and Silent Steps just seem a bit out of sorts at the moment and I was happy to leave them. The visor may work wonders for Silent Steps but this is her first run on officially Heavy ground. So, guessing there really. 

Hugos Reflection and Adherence both have questions in Heavy and the former has a stamina Q also, the latter has a ‘yard form’ Q with the Vaughan team 2/33 in last 30 days, 0/11,0p last 14. The race he won at Taunton was weak also. 

I think that leaves Albertos Dream who of the other big priced ones is interesting to a point I think – but he was poor on stable debut LTO, although he may have badly needed it. Heavy ground is no problem for him but he is 3lb above his last winning mark. I want to see more from the Katy Price team also, although one ran ok at MR yesterday but now 0/47, 4p in the last 90 days. 

So, fingers crossed it all clicks for On The Road in these conditions and with Wedge back on – with any luck that’s a sign. I can dream of him costing into this hard held approaching the last (which is 2 out today, the last omitted) and outstaying them all in the ground. 

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

20 Responses

  1. AW T/T

    No winners Thursday.

    3 runners Friday.
    4.45 N Blazing Dreams…B Haslam Hcp…7/2
    6.15 N Epeius…B Haslam Hcp…11/1
    5.30 D Art of America…N Meade Hcp…2/1

    Mike

  2. Looking at your Losing Runs table from your advised strategies sheet Josh I don’t agree with the figures. I’ll use my figures from the last month as an example. I have 269 bets and 52 wins with a S/R of 19% which gives me an expected maximum losing streak (ELS) of 27. If I was to multiply the bets and wins by say 10 which also has a S/R of 19% my ELS would be 38. The formula for ELS if using excel is LOG10(total bets)/-LOG10(1-strike rate). It is important to recognise the amount of bets being used and you should never just gauge this by strike rate alone.

  3. I am an idiot Josh, I’ve just gone back and read the things they call words above the table. But at least I’ve pointed out the variance of ELS in quantity of bets.

    1. cheers Chris – oh you’re far ahead of me on such things so any such comments are always welcome, even if you haven’t read the small print haha – I think that table is useful in just getting into the frame of mind that X losing runs are ‘normal, will happen, and you need to be able to absorb them’ , whatever the approach. 25-50 etc happens, of course when they’re in close proximity it’s hard to take – and losing runs different from maximum draw downs I suppose- no doubt some formula for that maybe, based on SR, ROI, etc

      Obviously there’s also a difference with a systematic /rules based approach where you’d hope such runs are more predictable, if you trust in your approach. ‘tipping’ is trickier given the subjective nature and impact on the human mind etc.

      But, any thoughts from you on that topic in particular are always welcome.

  4. 2 for today,
    Musselburgh 3-00. Ardera Cross 16-1
    Chepstow 3-55. Flaming Charmer 15-2
    both 1/2 pt ew

  5. Hi Josh, hope you don’t mind, I quite liked the idea of “Harry’s Historical Fact of the week”. If I have overstepped the mark or if it is not of any interest to the members please say so, I have put it up on the Friday as I thought people would be busy enough on the Saturday
    I have picked out the big race for the weekend
    So with a little help from Wiki & youtube
    The Clarence House Chase is a Grade 1 which is open to horses aged five years or older and run at Ascot every January
    The event was sponsored from its inauguration to 2013 by the bookmaker Victor Chandler. It was registered as the Clarence House Chase, but it was usually referred to by its sponsored title.
    The first running was planned to have taken place in 1987. However, it was abandoned that year due to frost, and also the following year because of fog.
    The first winner of the race in 1989 was none other than the great Desert Orchid – looking at the list of winners it is a real who’s who of quality horses, the latest winner in 2019 was Altior
    The race often includes some of the leading contenders for the Queen Mother Champion Chase. Seven horses have won both races in the same season – Viking Flagship (1994), Call Equiname (1999), Master Minded (2009), Sprinter Sacre (2013), Sire de Grugy (2014), Dodging Bullets (2015) and Altior (2019).
    The first horse to do the Clarence House/Queen Mother double was Viking Flagship in 1994 That year’s Clarence was postponed at Ascot and rescheduled for Warwick and shown on Channel 4 (the brilliant Graham Goode commentating), if you would like to see this fantastic horse winning the race the link is below – looks dodgy but it isn’t I’ve tried it. Enjoy!!
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jn_WpO-tJ2c

    1. Love watching the old races, the commentaries are of their day, but, do like looking back, my favourite is Dessie winning the Gold Cup, it was in the days before Health and safety and the crowd literally followed him up the hill..

    2. Oh you post comments like that anytime you please. I enjoyed reading that, and I am a history/pol graduate after all! And watching – blimey you had to jump in those days – not sure you’re walking through those fences unscathed. Superb.

    3. Harry
      Please keep them coming memories are great, if you can find the Grundy, Bustino race, in my mind this could be the greatest race of all time or what i have seen, could be biased for was given Grundy first time out as a 2yo sadly did not back him in the Derby.
      Thanks for your comments nice to know someone is backing mine.
      Cheers
      Colin.

  6. Don’t post much on here as I prefer to watch and learn but on another not very inspiring weekday where it is a job to try and find a bet, I’ve come up with mill island 1.55 muss. Since I started this post it’s already drifted to 22s which should undoubtedly be telling me something but for a pound I’m having a go. Playing about on geegeez, 3 hurdle starts at 2m, then straight to 3m chase hcap, trainer not bad 1st time hcap, (also has the fav btw), sire much improved strike rate and roi over fences and further. Cue a tailing off but thought I’d try and grab a share of the limelight in case anyone was interested lol.

    1. best of luck – £1 pokes on biggies, with reasoning, are always encouraged! There isn’t much to go on with him, inc two poor runs in Points and you’d suspect Sam C had the choice- but it is a strange route to take isn’t it? 3 novice hurdles over 2m and straight into a 3m handicap chase- you don’t see that very often- be interesting to see how he travels/jumps

  7. FAREEQ down today to run 2 days after running poorly at Southwell, it had only run twice at Southwell before and do feel that it does not like the surface for it finished 9th from 14 and 2nd from 6 runners, the trainer may have given it a run at Southwell knowing that it does not perform well there to ensure that it is fit for today.
    Cheating not really for a trainer has to look after his owners and take advantage of certain conditions, todays race is worth a staggering £2,782 to the winner, how many races at this level does the owner need to win to pay his yearly trainers fees!
    Trainers and owners do not run their horses for the punters they are trying to stay in buisness, the prize money in this country is a disgrace.
    Colin.

    1. Fareeq drifted out to 7/1 on Wednesday. Maybe it’s as simple that the horse doesn’t like Southwell, but I watched the race closely and it looked a curious ride at best – broke well enough, but jockey delayed a few strides before making a token effort then gave up quickly. Either had today in mind or maybe two quick races to get the mark back down, we’ll see later!

      1. I made an error of judgement by backing it for with Southwell being unique normally will only back a horse that has won their previous.
        The attendance at Southwell is very poor some meetings there are less than 200, so will not take much to push an horse out in the market after the dogs have done there barking that it was not fancied on the day.
        Not disputing what you saw James but could be a innocent explanation, Jockey did not have the right feel thought something might be amiss, does he then flog the horse and it breaks down always difficult for the jockey.
        Did you go onto the BHA webside and see if the stewards looked into the running of the horse, if you have doubts about any horses running always have a look on there.
        Colin

      2. hmm, just watched it and looked fine to me.
        he does have course form – but that was his 5th run in 5 weeks – at this level/quality of horse, you can just run them and some days it will all click, others it won’t, I know that with Blessed.
        The jockey looked to try to me – he was niggling/moving his hands early, gave a tap or two when realised not going as would like, and has then looked after him – no point in flogging him to death when you can see others streaking clear..
        I don’t know Southwell that well but the far side/inside isn’t the place to be is it? He was arguably on the slowest/worst part of the track and 3 of first 4 races nearer stands side – can just be kick back as well there- if you’re getting that crap kicked up in your face you can understand sometimes the horse putting down tools.

        Just looked a flat run to my eyes, but he didn’t have a hard race , which may help when he races again.

        1. Thanks Colin and Josh, I should have looked at BHA website before saying anything, Fareeq lost a shoe in the race. All your comments are valid too, happy to put it to bed and hope the horse runs well today.

  8. COLINS BETS
    12.30 Lingfield Brockley Rise 4/1

    TIP TOP
    3.30 Musselburgh John Williams 4/1

    ARUBA
    12.30 Lingfield Axel Jacklin 10/3
    4.45 Newcastle Double Martini 9/4

    FAVOURED and MAX BETS
    No bets today
    Colin

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