Members Daily Post: 16/01/20 (complete)

No tips, Section 2 (complete), test zone, advised strat report

1.My Tips

2.Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.General messages/updates/new reports etc

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1.My Tips

Daily Chase Tips Main (2019: 24/165, 49p +16.8 ) Jumps Festival Tips (2018:+143; 2019: 6/99,27p, -45.8,)

Daily Chase Tips: Main (2020: 1/11,3p, -5.5)

(handicap chases, 2m7f+, C4+)

None, no races of choice today now Wincanton is off.

 

Best of The Blog? (test: 0/8, 3p; -8)

None today.

 

2.Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

JUMPS

Ludlow

2.20 – All It’s Own Expense (all Hc’s) 14,30 ES+ H1 I3 G3 15/8 S3A# S4 UP

2.55 –

Ellens Way (HcH) w2 25/1 S2A UP

Winter Getaway (all Hc’s) 14,30 w2 ES+ H1 I1 G3 9/2 S3A# S4 UP

 

Market Rasen

1.10 – Lord Sparky (micro class) 16/1 S2A UP

 

Wincanton 

Abandoned

 

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TTP Chase Micros 2019/20

(note: these were new this jumps season and do not form part of the section 2 ‘strategies’) 

2.10 MR – Bandsman (any) G3 18/1 2nd 

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Please Read: All information regarding the members club and how to engage in the content, inc Videos. Inc contact info, research articles and much more can be found HERE>>>

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3.Micro System Test Zone

January Trainers

Sue Smith

1.40 MR – Minella Fiveo 14/1 UP

 

Chase Angles 2019/20

Trainers

2.10 MR – Sporting Press (11/1<) G1 7/1  BD

 

LTO Winning Trainers

2.10 MR – Zolfo H1 I1 11/4  WON 11/4>7/1 

 

Jockey Angles 2019/20

12.50 Lud – Fair And Dandy (16/1<) 150/1 DNQ

3.20 MR- Out For Justice (25/1<) H1 I3 7/2  3rd

 

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Chase Eye-Catchers 2019/20

2.20 Lud – Minella For Me (1st run) H3 I3 8/1 UP

2.20 Lud – Town Parks (3rd run) G1 9/2  WON 9/2>9/4 

 

4.General messages/updates/new reports etc

Updated version as of 09.40… figures were wrong for S3A#…

Advised Strategies : New Report HERE>>>

The report above looks back at the ‘advised’ strategies for last year/recent years and a look ahead for 2020 and where you could focus, if either wanting to focus on a systematic approach, or as starting points etc. There’s also the table on the relationship between win strike rate and losing runs. I will move this report into the Welcome Post link also. 

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

20 Responses

  1. A great example of the Bookies “fraudulent” practice is the Ante Post market for Saturday’s “The New One Hurdle”. Although at present there are 9 runners, the Bookies collectively are only paying out to 2 places on the so called “Ante Post” market. No doubt they’ll refund any bets put on subsequently withdrawn horses – believe that & you’ll believe anything!! It’s what is called “having you cake and eating it” or, as I would put it “Screwing the unwary Punter”!!

    1. That was me who sparked the issue with BET365 by tipping Call me Lord at 5/1 each way ante post on another site via Bet365. I went through the race and thought that there were only three in with a chance in the race and that Pentland Hills may come out because of the ground at Haydock that brought this to life on twitter.
      They did take my bet but for two places as they said that ‘it was not an ante post market’ although it was Wednesday and the race was on Saturday. They said that they were wary about all nine runners turning up and so must have been worried about the favourite coming out.
      Anyway, always check the places being given by the bookmaker and ask why if it is not straight forward. I do understand that BET365 are there to make a profit for their shareholders and that they do take bets from me and others that most competitors do not.

  2. AW T/T

    No winners on Wed.

    2 runners for Thursday.

    6.30 N Uponastar…B Haslam Hcp…11/1
    5.00 N Castlehill Retreat…B Haslam Hcp…5/1

    Mike

  3. Think I need to put myself in the must get better camp, those two yesterday were awful, only glimmer was that Scotchtown did run well up to a point, so, maybe shorter distance and he may pick up one, the other RR, was either not on a going day, or, was that out classed etc. It makes me frustrated that you do all that study and they don`t run up to scratch, suppose that`s why it`s called a gamble.
    I can read the Irish horses really well, but, for some reason this season all the English challengers in my opinion look hard to read, they seem to run one race brilliant and the next really poor, or, vice versa, classic example of that is Frodon, although he does always seem to do better after the winter solstice. I think the really Heavy ground since the end of October has not really helped, the year before the trainers were crying out for rain by the end of October.
    It may be my pocket talking and will throw myself to the wolves, but, i do better with the Irish horses, so, may stick with them from now on with the occasional British race on a weekend thrown in.

    1. Interesting comments, I have also noticed this inconsistency and seems to be worse this year, do people think it’s because of heavy ground (takes longer to recover) or trainers targeting specific races more than ever before? Adds another level of complexity to work out if it’s a ‘going day’. I know it’s always gone on, but there are often more trying not to win than vice versa, so many ways a jockey can do this! Also, while I’m on this subject, I can’t believe people still bet so much on short priced favs, far too many get beat to make money with these, how hard do you think the exchanges have hit integrity by making it so easy to win off a loser?

    2. hmm, Stewart, I’d argue that if you can read Irish horses well, you shouldn’t have a problem over here long term haha. But who knows, maybe more consistency with ground? Most bred to be sloggers, and in general only a handful of yards have all the good ones etc – it would be interesting to ponder why you think you do well in Ireland? I’ve an ok record in Irish Nat, have done ok Punch/Galway with targeted arrows but mixed outside of those.

      James…

      my view is all the integrity / bent issue is overblown but people will see things they want to see. I’ve certainly come to conclusion in recent months that there’s more questionable behaviour than maybe i’ve wanted to contemplate, and i’ve heard stories from good sources about certain connections etc – I say that all mainly with my jumps hat on – as if your horse is revved up and there to run it’s race, it is hard to go unnoticed if a horse doesn’t run on merits – they’re not too hard to spot as such – but mainly hurdlers etc – i’m not sure in handicap chases it’s that easy to do – you’re best just not feeding them/ running them harder up gallops close to race if you want to ensure don’t run on merits I think, but who knows. I’ve always been of the view enough/majority of racing is straight to enjoy and do fine long term.

      The stats for handicap chasers wouldn’t suggest any inconsistency… on a basic level…

      -handicap chasers that ‘placed’ (official places dep on number runners/race type etc) on last start win 45% of all races, and that figure has been consistent for years now, having just looked in HRB – and so has the place SR of those – it can fluctuate 1-2% but generally seems fine/normal.

      -testing ground and whether a horse is over a run etc – that’s always been part of the puzzle, I don’t think this year is any softer than other winters etc and some of my better in-form runs have been when the ground has been consistently testing – but maybe it’s the lack of consistency that makes it tougher.

      There have been very few 3m+ handicap chase winners, if any, that haven’t made sense to me –
      Django Django made sense, and more so when you realise ground was soft and not heavy. 2 starts ago he stayed on against Eric Le Rouge at Uttox in a race working out well – the form was there and that was up there as some of best recent chase form – hurdles form suggested a 3 miler. At Aintree he lost both back shoes and never really jumped – he was too short at 6s for me given I thought it was heavy, but he had won fresh – I’m never destined to get a Jonjo horse right though, he was 4/70 with handicap chasers that PU LTO since start 2016 before yesterday. Hard to know if he’d had further problems etc – but a game of subjective chance and some would have thought 6s was overpriced.

      Both Stewart and I liked the Gordon horse, i did think 14s was big but got that wrong – he had been running around Font/Plump but I though this would be really testing and a ‘leveller’ given questions on ground for others, but alas it wasn’t that testing at all – although that’s no excuse for his effort – i think his legs coudn’t quicker and just outclassed, but maybe he did have an off day also.
      It is tough at the moment, smaller fields/abandoned meetings don’t help, but that’s the puzzle and you can only keep plugging away/reflecting etc.

      There will be some on here who, given some of the above, like to just focus on the stats over time, and don’t worry with all the form/second guessing nonsense!

      1. I have seen plenty of seasons like the current one in the past. The ground has been like this before. trainers and jockeys are much more honest nowadays than they have even been. Those of you who can go back as far as me would have seen some dodgy stuff at the races. I do not see it any more.
        It is likely just another season that is different form last season but similar to other seasons over the past forty odd years.
        I do not bet below 2/1 but have no upper limit. The thing with short priced favourites is that the markets push them down low nowadays and there are no bookies out there willing to take them on and push the price out again.

        1. Thanks for comments Josh and Martin – interesting point about short priced favs and the bookies. Josh, are there stats about how winners perform in their next race, the placed horses stat you quote is reassuring

          1. yep LTO winners running in handicap chases look consistent enough over recent years also, again 1-2% difference in odd year… 28% races won by LTO winners. 2020 so far operating at 38% . 11/48, so small sample and that will level out.

    3. Sorry, didn`t mean that to sound negative. It really wasn`t meant that way, just meant that it adds to the constant battle that we have with the bookies, not that anyone is bent, or, running horses just for the sake of it. I know they are not as bad as they used to be years ago, who remembers Micky Quinn, terrible how those horses were kept in his so called stable…
      Also the point about Irish and GB horses, just seems like Josh says that they enjoy the slog more than their GB counterparts, not, that they are not as good, or, not trying as hard. Just my reading of the form seems to be a bit off, that`s all.

  4. nothing fully qualified as a proper bet today but here’s a list of the “nearly’s” i’ve thrown a few tiny ew singles at them and a some 5p ew multi’s for a bit of fun.
    Market Rasen,
    1-10. Compadre 10-1
    1-40. Minella five o 16-1
    3-20. Cusheen Bridge 8-1, Sunny Ledgend 22-1
    3-50. Midnight Mustang 18-1, Gold Patrol 25-1
    Ludlow.
    2-20. Twin Parks
    2-55. Ellens Way 20-1, Regarding Ruth 11-1
    Wincanton.
    1-00. Holdbacktheriver 10-1
    2-35. Gangster 14-1
    3-40. Dawson City 16-1

  5. Josh

    Just been looking at the new advised strategies report. Can you check the results for jumps strategy S3A# .
    2019 shows a loss but you seem to have added it as a profit in the overall results.

    1. Hi John,
      I’m glad you’re on the ball.. yes quite how +75, -21 = +97 i’ve no idea!! I’ve clearly got some figures mixed up there.

      Think it’s correct now… http://racingtoprofit.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/Advised-Strategies-2020-1.pdf

      The lot of them look very good from start of 2018, but alas, 2019 wasn’t poor for many – i’ve tried to be stricter and highlight as ‘advised’ those with at least +2 profitable years live – last year for S3A# was just a bit too bad although would have wiped face/small profit had odd placed horse got nose in front. Hopefully this year gets back to levels of 2018, logically every reason it might, we shall see.

      Josh

  6. COLINS BETS
    7.00 Newcastle Klopp 9/4

    TIP TOP
    3.20 M/R Zen Master 6/1
    Newcastle
    4.30 Palazzo 3/1
    5.00 Penmellyn 4/1
    5.30 Foxy Forever 7/1

    ARUBA
    4.30 Newcastle Palazzo 3/1

    FAVOURED
    1.40 El Kaldoun 3/1

    MAX BETS
    4.30 Newcastle Palazzo 3/1
    Colin

  7. Uponastar at Newcastle 4.30 was 12/1 last night and goes off at 28/1 and was so far at the back of my telly I had go on the planner to find it!
    Surely somebody knew something for it to drift that much? Is it really fair on us to put our money on horses like this if it hasn’t got a hope?

    1. hmm… I mean I am looking with hindsight and i’ve just watched it but some thoughts…

      1. The overnight markets/what odds they’re put in at – well that’s ‘poking in the dark’ to an extent – and the markets can give some indication, esp with ones with that profile etc

      2. That drift will be an indication of very little money coming for it / piling into others – I can’t think it’s had the ears laid off it by ‘people in the know – which would be trainer /owner/ yard folk – dangerous game that esp on exchanges which are monitored. She should have probably been put in at 20s or something – and these AW markets don’t really get going until late do they? When the big exchange money starts flying around. At that C7 level I doubt many connections know what to expect from their horses! She could well have looked fat in the pre-lims, or on her toes etc etc , hence the drift.

      3. the horse – well it’s not that shocking that she’s run like that is it? Running in a C7 AW race, was with Amy and if she’s moving her on, I suspect not showing much at all – did the same LTO for Ben, had another 60+ days off – watching the race – she was keen as anything, found little for pressure – and Paul smacked her twice before 3f out, nothing there at all – the formbook would indicate that was more likely than not – but traders are poking in the dark when pricing one up like that. Trainer/jockey only 1/25 last year, not really a ‘go to’ man as yet. She did stop quickly there, I suspect she’s issues.

      I don’t know if it takes much for a drift like that, in a race like that, no idea. Maybe there were some people in the know etc – but your ‘form eyes’ conclusion would be it more likely has no hope, than is likely to go close- on the evidence available – you could argue you’d have to be ‘in the know’ to support it, hence why market may guide .

      There was nothing about how she ran there that was unusual compared to previous form to my eyes. She’d been held up, and fitness/wellbeing/ability Q etc.

      But, maybe I look at these things with too forgiving an eye!!

  8. Hi Josh, the sort of thing I was thinking of was Fareeq 18.50 Southwell yesterday. Put up by Colin, won well previous race, but drifted out to 7/1 and to my eyes the ride was curious at best – broke ok but jockey was late trying to pick him up, then made some sort of effort to satisfy the stewards before giving up quickly. What do you think if you have a minute to look?

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