Members Daily Post: 15/01/20 (complete)

1.My Tips

2.Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.General messages/updates/new reports etc

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1.My Tips

Daily Chase Tips Main (2019: 24/165, 49p +16.8 ) Jumps Festival Tips (2018:+143; 2019: 6/99,27p, -45.8,)

Daily Chase Tips: Main (2020: 1/11,3p, -5.5)

(handicap chases, 2m7f+, C4+)

3.25 N – REALLY RADICAL – 1 point win – 16/1 (bet365/WH) 14/1 (gen) UP 8/1, that was over after 2 fences, held up, not sure he was able to keep up/didn’t have class to do so or was just had an odd day/never going. As an aside the times suggest ground is no worse than soft, not sure where they’ve got heavy from. 

that’s all for main tips, as of 09.37, write up at bottom of post 

 

 

None today.

 

2.Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

JUMPS

Newbury (inspect 8am)

2.20 –

Le Ligerien (micro distance)14,30  H1 I1 G1 7/2 S4 WON 7/2>2/1 

Who Shot Jr (m dist) w2 14/1 UP

 

Plumpton 

Abandoned 

 

 

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Please Read: All information regarding the members club and how to engage in the content, inc Videos. Inc contact info, research articles and much more can be found HERE>>>

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3.Micro System Test Zone

Chase Angles 2019/20 

Trainers

1.45 N – Vado Forte (13/2<) 14,30 H3 I3 G3 4/1  UP

 

Chase Eye-Catcher 2019/20

3.25 N – Indy Five (1st run)  4/1 UP

 

4.General messages/updates/new reports etc

Micro Monday HERE>>> 

NEW Tracker Tuesday HERE>>>

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3.25 Newb –

Really Radical – 14s seems a tad insulting for this one’s chance here – he’s lightly raced, generally consistent, appears to handle heavy, there should be more to come one day, he can race prominently, has jumped well so far and the yard are in very good form. He looks like a chaser, a galloper and may enjoy this track. His ‘hot form’ wouldn’t be as strong as some in here but his races have produced subsequent winners and i’ve a feeling he bumped into one LTO – the front two miles clear there. He was carrying a big enough weight there and he got racing plenty early enough in conditions. By going up in class he gets to carry a light weight which, depending on just how awful this ground is, could be a positive – especially in a race where they won’t dawdle. He hasn’t won a race yet which always poses questions and why you’d want a decent price, but he responds to pressure and the CP seemed to help him LTO.

His chance is enhanced as I really didn’t like the rest at the prices.

The ‘annoying’ winner to a point would be Indy Five but it’s hard to say 9/2 looked overly generous – he did look to be coming back to something like his best LTO and he is well handicapped – and he will try and stretch them from the front. He was also in a scrap a long way from home and there’s a chance he gets an easier time on the front end here. He is tricky, and appears to race enthusiastically – there’s a chance he does too much in this ground and falls in a hole late on – or he does a poor man’s Captain Chaos and breaks the race apart – and it could be there’s no Kimberlite to overhaul him in this if he keeps going. I wouldn’t put anyone off a saver at 9/2 but I didn’t want to fully wade in given the niggles. A shame he wasn’t bigger really and maybe he will make 9/2 look good, we shall see.

A proper slog in heavy is a question for them all really, inc Notachance who’s at least fit and in form – but he will need more than LTO and they reach for CP. He’s got 11-12 to lug around also and if he beats me at 3s so be it – there could me more to come and that Exeter win is working out well enough.

Samburu Shujaa – I’d want to see more before wading in at 9/2 or at least wait for better ground – his best hurdles form was on a decent enough surface. He should make into a strapping chaser but he cut out a bit too quickly for my liking LTO in heavy, when fitness shouldn’t have been a questions. He’s unexposed over fences though and Hobbs is in fine form, and Ben Jones is having a great season. But the ground is the question, in context of price.

Le Boizelo is just open to attack from anything better handicapped, and LH is a question. He should need more than LTO and i’m not sure where an improved run will come from. But, he does handle conditions and gallops, and that could count for plenty today. I could leave at 6s though.

Django Django has a few too many questions for me at the moment, and 6s wasn’t big enough to lure me in. His two hncp hurdle wins were on Good and Good to Soft. Linehall I can leave after 619 days off and again he’s got a ground question.

That leaves Scotchtown – he’s probably got some of the best placed chase form in this and his mark is looking tempting – he’s had a wind op since last run so some questions now and that effort LTO was laboured enough at a time of year the yard were thriving, as usual. Heavy is a question for him and he does often find one or two too good, now 0/12 over fences and he hasn’t won since Nov 2016. He does respond to pressure but sometimes too late and there is a niggle over whether he likes a battle, hence the visor I think. But a repeat of that Sandown run or Newbury run in December would put him in the mix here so I can see the case. Whether he will need it or not I don’t know but I was happy to leave at 13/2 but he could be in and around after the last.

In these conditions I thought it looked open enough and 14s was too big for the selection based on his recent efforts, in my view anyway. Hopefully he can track Indy Five / Scotchtown and just keep going after the last.

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About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

16 Comments

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  • Evening,

    May kick myself for this, but, early prices for those who can get them.
    15:25 Newbury
    SCOTCHTOWN 1pt win 7/1 gen
    REALLYRADICAL 1pt win 9/1 gen

    write ups in morning.

    Stewart 14/01/20 8:07 PM Reply


    • SCOTCHTOWN
      I think this one has needed a wind op, early in his career NTD said he won a race carrying his head in his chest, some people may say that is because he won that easily and some say that it was because he was trying to get air in his lungs, suppose we shall see today, i do think he comes with a lot on the bridle and when the button is pressed, their isn`t a great deal in the gears. I think he travels well through races and has that speed that I like going through races, hopefully STD can then leave a little in the tank to finish these off.
      REALLYRADICAL
      I believe this one needs a restraining ride and a long straight to fully show his worth, he has been running on tighter and more undulating tracks and I just don`t think he has been given enough time to get his act together before getting either another fence, a turn, or, an undulation thrown in his face. Newbury will suit better than anything he has encountered so far and i felt the hurdle race here, he was doing well, but, needed a few fences to slow others down, he does jump big and these Newbury fences are quite stiff, so, at 9/1 is definitely value odds in my eyes and as he unexposed this could be his day!

      As always hope all horses come back safe and sound and good luck with whatever you select today.

      Stewart 15/01/20 7:47 AM Reply


  • Karl Burke has 2 runners in races that he excels with at Southwell,lightly raced 3yo’s having their sand debut 5.20 Lady Latte 5.20 Ladlays Beluga 6.20

    The latter is unbackable but lady lotte is an attractive price at 20/1 but with reservations.
    The booking of Rhona Pinder suggests she is entered in hope rather than with confidence.She has had a few winners at the course
    The 4 month lay off is of no concern as Burke is a master of getting horses race ready at home.She may have strengthened up and at 20/1 is worth a small interest.She may be even longer price in the morning so i wouldn’t worry about getting on early.One of these bigger priced ones will drop in before the end of March and I don’t want to be kicking the cat tomorrow evening

    gerry michael flynn 14/01/20 9:02 PM Reply


    • You should be backing all Karl Burke runners at Southwell based upon the past 18 months profit. I can understand not backing those below 2/1 but do not be selective otherwise . So I think that I am agreeing with you.

      Martin Colwell 15/01/20 8:47 AM Reply


  • AW T/T

    No winner Tuesday. 1 runner Wed.

    4.50 S Momtalik…D Shaw Dist…14/1

    Mike

    mickeydee 14/01/20 10:40 PM Reply


  • Late on the debate but surely Josh there’s no downside to a Guest tipster now and then
    if you want to use it then check out any tips yourself, could discuss on here any thoughts we have about any of them and maybe even make a couple of quid. Or just ignore

    I think iv been on the site for poss 6months now, I don’t use the stats at all, iv tried to make it work a few times but haven’t been able to and haven’t thought iv missed a lot from scanning over them but Josh is most likely right it’s laziness on my part not reading through things properly but also using my time to go through races which I like to do. And can’t systematically follow any of the stats packs or micro’s as i do like to check a horses chance myself as also been trying to cut down losses.

    I joined here as a quick read through of Josh and a similar liking for the longer distance chases (never fell in love with hurdles think more unpredictable results so just steered clear)

    Danny’s comments ring true with me mostly, the only disappointment iv felt from the site is the lack of interaction
    Iv a WhatsApp group with some friends but they aren’t as into the racing as me and don’t get as involved where as I feel like I could talk to people all day about it
    But I can’t complain about this if I’m not contributing myself so going to try and put all my thoughts on here from now on
    I think I like reviewing a race to see what iv missed or gone wrong, as much as trying to pull a race card apart in the mornings

    Ryan Mercer 14/01/20 10:49 PM Reply


    • Thanks Ryan.
      We shall see how the monthly Guest Tipster idea goes – may hopefully be in interesting/informative/profitable addition but as with any section / comments on here etc, you can just scroll straight past!

      Interaction is one of those things that fluctuates and cannot be forced etc – I think i’ve created/managed a space where generally all polite opinions/musings are welcome – it will never be a ‘chat room’ – well not in these comments as its just not practical and reams of ‘chat’ that you’d have in whatsapp or messaging, on here, just isn’t appropriate I don’t think. Whether there’s any tech that could allow chat in a pop up box on an afternoon i’ve no idea! – maybe I need to do more on trying to spark off conversation on X, or pulling together odd posts which discuss X – but at the end of the day you can’t force people to engage, it’s up to them, and generally speaking while it has been quieter at times (in part linked to results/overall happiness barometer!) there’s still been stuff to flick through – and you can have too much – a thread/discussion like yesterday every day, and indeed on the Guest Tipster idea, isn’t sustainable. But enjoyable to read when such discussions come along.
      There’s no perfect answer really – hopefully members feel like they can comment on what they please without being shot down- but from the total membership it’s always been a small minority who comment regularly anyway.
      Josh

      Josh 15/01/20 3:18 PM Reply


  • Punchestown 3-05. The Horsechestnut 16-1 b365 1pt ew
    a couple more for tiny bets
    1-00. De Benno 18-1 4 places
    2-35. Sweet Sting 45-1 4 places
    i’m putting Newbury and Plumpton on hold in case they are off or going change.

    martin whittle 15/01/20 1:32 AM Reply


    • Newbury.
      12-45. Martha Brae 8-1
      1-15. Mahler’s Promise 7-1
      2-50. Mon Palois 14-1
      all 1/2 pt ew

      martin whittle 15/01/20 8:07 AM Reply


      • 2 places @ 14-1 and 16-1 with bog, 5 pts staked 4 pts returned.

        martin whittle 16/01/20 12:31 AM Reply


  • To be more interactive is definitely better, but, as Josh has found in the past when we have loads of comments on here, people maybe can`t be bothered to read all the comments and then miss out on the nuggets of information held therin.
    Maybe if we do set up a separate whats app group with Some one as admin, but, not Josh, as i know myself I have a whats app group for the football team and i get drained with the amount of comments in there.
    Just a suggestion though.

    Stewart 15/01/20 8:52 AM Reply


  • There are successful long term tipsters re horse racing. Josh does know some of them as do I. I am not going to name them on this site though. It is Josh’s gig.

    The vast majority are not telling the whole truth re prices and results. Most people know that. But the long term profit makers are out there. You have to dig for them.

    Martin Colwell 15/01/20 8:53 AM Reply


  • Why not a seperate page on here for conversation.
    Not a clue what Stewart means with his whats app but the alarming piece i get drained with the ammount of comments in there.
    Joined Facebook only to keep upto date with one of my dance classes and that is kept to event days and is fine, do not understand it but i am always having requests from young girls to be their friend, so will steer clear of facebook and also whats app.
    A seperate page on RTP would be good and would be monitered if anyone put chit chat on members for it could be deleted.
    Colin.

    Josh missed the dancing through the bookies yesterday, very good!!! wished i could do smile face on my computer.

    cleafe 15/01/20 9:24 AM Reply


  • COLINS BETS
    4.20 Southwell Sea Of Cool 3/1

    FAVOURED
    3.25 Newbury Le Boizelo 11/2

    cleafe 15/01/20 10:12 AM Reply


  • TIP TOP
    12.55 Wolverhampton Dark Phoenix 3/1
    6.50 Southwell Fareeq 9/2

    ARUBA
    12.55 Wolverhampton Dark Phoenix 3/1
    4.20 Southwell Crazy Spin 7/1
    5.50 Southwell Airshow 11/4
    6.50 Southwell Fareeq 9/2

    MAX BETS
    12.55 Wolverhampton Dark Phoenix 3/1
    6.50 Sothwell Fareeq 9/2
    Colin

    cleafe 15/01/20 10:35 AM Reply


    • Well done Colin, another good winner!!

      harrys 15/01/20 4:27 PM Reply


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