Members Daily Post: 14/01/20 (complete)

No tips, Section 2 (none), test zone…

1.My Tips

2.Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.General messages/updates/new reports etc


1.My Tips

Daily Chase Tips Main (2019: 24/165, 49p +16.8 ) Jumps Festival Tips (2018:+143; 2019: 6/99,27p, -45.8,)

Daily Chase Tips: Main (2020: 1/10,3p, -4.5)

(handicap chases, 2m7f+, C4+)


A shame Exeter is off although small enough fields in the chases but I was interested to see how the eye-catchers got on. 

There’s one at Doncaster in the 3.15 – he’s short enough and novice hncps are notoriously tricky given they’re all generally unexposed/inexperienced over fences  – Financial Income needs to show more though however this is a much weaker race than LTO – he looks a big galloping sort but he ‘could’ want decent ground. He is a point winner and Curtis will find the key at some point. She’s 7/16,8p +6 when teaming up with Coleman in the last year. 

Ballymagroarty Boy – he’s interesting at 10/3 –  this is a 5 runner race and he may make that look good – Hawke is 5/25,8p with horses having 1st run after a wind op, +22 SP – so note that down if you wish for the future. The horse has won fresh/could be best after a break, CP return, he’s a hurdles winner – and that Chepstow race is working out well – he ran ok there – although having just watched it back was a bit ponderous at his fences – he should have more space/time here and he will stay in the ground. I don’t like the other three. 

On the flip side, he’s inexperienced, he’s yet to win a chase (hasn’t run in points) may need the run/may not, they clearly think he needs CP to concentrate – so it’s hard saying 10/3 is overpriced, even in this line up, in what could effectively be a 3 runner race. 

Anyway, those two are the most interesting but i’ll keep a watching brief in this race. 


Best of The Blog? (test: 0/8, 3p; -8)



2.Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs







Please Read: All information regarding the members club and how to engage in the content, inc Videos. Inc contact info, research articles and much more can be found HERE>>>



3.Micro System Test Zone

Chase Eye-Catchers 2019 

3.15 Donc – Financial Outcome (3rd run)  I1 G3 3/1 


4.General messages/updates/new reports etc

NEW … Micro Monday HERE>>> 


Monthly Guest Tipster... if you missed my musings on this potential new addition to the daily members’ posts, and indeed the extensive chat in the comments, you can find it in Monday’s post HERE>>>




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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

32 Responses

  1. AW T/T

    No winners Monday, 1 NR and 1 mistake thanks to Linda spotting it.

    1 runner Tuesday.

    5.30 C Duke Debonair…J Osbourne Cl…3/1


    1. Cheers for keeping up with these Mike.
      Time is against me keeping abreast of things lately due to often finding a proper pub with an open door when out for my daily visit to the docs/hospital. I know that the medics will have sorted me out soon but I’m not sure how to train my legs to keep going past a pub. I digress:
      Reading the comments 13/1 about the addition Josh is considering re ‘guest tipster’ I thought it an opportune time to put profit figures to the task you set yourself as it follows part of Aspirin’s reasoning for being here.
      My first bet of 1% from @ £200 bank using the aw stats Josh provided was on 2/11/19. As with all my bets, using a compound stake the bank now is £539.13

      An Addendum :
      As much as Josh can’t get his head around AW, his stats are the dogs bollox.
      S1 – S4 jumps make a profit every year although S3 having a sticky time.
      Don’t really follow the flat statwise so can’t comment other than agree with G1 over 5f. Returns from Josh’s stats with a G1 is far higher than just G1 though.
      Is a ‘Guest Tipster’ a good addition to the blog?
      I think my last point indicates it would be remiss to disregard it, if for no other reason than it provides further info to tailor your own betting.

      Mike: this is not directed at you other than the p/l for aw. I’ve just realised I carried on and don’t want to re-write it

      1. It would be of interest to see what the G1 figures are for 5f on the AW are, if there are any at all.


  2. Like many a subscriber I find the site invaluable,especially the stats section,cuts down on research and provides a way in.The lasting lesson was to look for value,so 7/1 is my cut off,so on any given day there may be 1 or 2 to consider further
    The first part of the jumps season has been poor on value selections so far,mainly due to 4,5 and 6 runner fields.Amidst that there was the 2 Bowen horses at 16/1 and 20/1 and looking back to 2018 there was a jonjo and henderson 33/1 and 16/1.
    My results using tipsters have usually gone badly.Its an all or nothing.You place your bet knowing in your head the selection hasn’t a hope in hell yet the tipster is better than you.Then theres the rushing around for that price,finding you can get nowhere near it and concluding that in reality they are as much in the dark as yourself.
    I think there is no harm in having a guest writer on the site,i think previously they might have been on a day or two which will usually be the losing day which is natural,a month should give a better perspective.
    You can read or scroll through.
    My advice is as always use the stats and research,find your path and most importantly have fun,take time off to enjoy other pursuits because in the grand scheme it is of little importance.
    If you start out on Jan 1 with a hundred and end up with a hundred on 31st Dec you had a good year.101 and you have done better than 98% who bet.
    An achievable goal is 100 pts profit and you are doing as well as any tipster

    1. Thanks for posting Gerard, pleased you’ve found a way to use the content/have fun that suits you etc. Some very wise words in that comment.

    2. Yeah I find that tipsters who advertise their profits to advised prices the night before are a complete joke and usually not profitable at all . Especially when advertising big priced horses that halve in price and win or drift and win so they can claim the SP .

  3. A few for today,
    1-15. Enduring Love 10-1 b365 1pt ew
    2-50. All About Alfie 14-1 sky 4 places 1/2 pt ew
    2-00. Jully Les Buxy 6-1 bv 1pt ew
    1-05. Simply Lucky 20-1 sky 5 places 1/2 pt ew
    2-10. Nestor Park 11-1 b365 1pt ew
    3-50. Legalized 18-1 sky 4 places 1/2 pt ew
    i’ll try and put my reasoning up later time permitting

    1. sods law after trialing these for a while first day i post them just scrape back 3 pts in the last, before today staked 100 pts returns 114.5 pts, today down 6 pts. just one word springs to mind – bugger.

  4. Hi Manyanga
    Just picked up your post from yesterday, ref placing bets afraid has we all know bookmakers do not want potential winners so why take a risk restrict them close them down, when there is abundance of new young losers coming through through their constant adverts making out they are your best friend, again all the kids are buying football shirts with a bookmakers logo on so an 8 year old is growing up thinking the bookmakers are lovely.
    So her at 365 will probably pay herself £400 million next year
    My team are sponsered by 32 Red and they are paying Wayne Rooney to play for Derby and i certainly do not agree with this.

  5. Well it is a quiet day racing wise, and there’s rarely a comment you make Colin (non tips/horses you fancy etc) that I don’t take umbrage with! 🙂 Although they’re always welcome as it’s the starting gun for a discussion… esp when the racing is a bit naff…

    – there’s clearly a big debate around responsible gambling and how companies deal with addicts etc – I’ve just seen the gambling commission/gvt has banned betting on Credit Cards etc – ah those pesky MPs again, in the pay of the big companies! 🙂 They won’t like that at all, but I quite agree with that move – no one should be betting using debt etc in my view.

    -But, also, my regular reminder that the majority of people ‘gamble’ responsibly and it’s a perfect legitimate past time! Obviously. (i think of myself as a bettor not a gambler, I don’t like that term when I think there’s an element of skill, of course as well as some luck, but that’s semantics I suppose)

    -I’m not sure what I think about bookie sponsorship etc but I think i’d tend to agree with you when it comes to football and other mass sports, that could well influence very young people. But this whole topic is a can of worms – you can’t just ban gambling/betting – and as such as with any pursuit in life, there’s going to be a downside. Just how thats managed and maybe bookies advertising being everywhere is an issue. I don’t know. I think Instagram/social media/progs like Love Island are more damaging to young people but that’s another issue!

    – Restrictions – a tricky issue where I think there should be a minimum liability of £500 say on the day of racing – maybe that will come in at some point. I’m not sure there is any method to bookies closing accounts down – most of it is algorithms etc no doubt and I don’t know how they work – or whether you can do anything that gives you a better chance – and the reality is that there are enough firms to get on still, maybe not with BOG etc – but i’ve always been of the view that if you take the piss, then you get what you deserve.

    If you’re betting 50s/100s/200s with one firm on decent odds horses with big liabilities on your bets – and if you’re doing that the evening before, taking stand out price with one firm etc – then you get what you deserve in my view because that’s the reality we live in – we have to try and understand the landscape as it is – and part of that is the fact that the exchanges have ruined traditional bookmaking to a point, where they don’t have expert teams of traders pricing up races anymore as such – not on the scale they used to – they rarely take a view – it’s no longer punter vs bookmaker as it was pre exchanges I think – as such I think may use ‘betting information’ esp on early markets which they’ve priced up as some sort of guide as to whether they’ve made a pricing howler etc.

    Also, if you’re following a big tipster with a big following, esp the evening before, the bookies will no doubt know you’re following a tipster, which they may judge reduces their chance of beating you over time. They , esp the independent ones like Geoff Banks/ Star Sports – I suspect want to think they have a chance of beating you over time. None of them like to think you’re arbing – backing horses at much much bigger prices than they go off at etc and assuming you’re laying off for a profit etc
    In part that’s one of reasons I bet on the day – it’s still possibly to find value I think- but you have to judge whether you want to win less over time but still have betting accounts, or win more in a short space of time and have none in the future! I’ve still got all my accounts – i’m restricted on some to smaller stakes, BOG gone on others, but I can still get 10s/20s/40s on etc on the day with plenty. And the exchanges are good for big saturday feature handicaps. There was 70k of liquidity in the Classic Chase at 10am or so on the day, easy to get 25 matched on a 18s shot etc.

    Clearly there is some skulduggery from bookmakers, hence why min liability would be great across the board- but I don’t think some punters help themselves, given the current landscape/what we know. Of course all that may be nonsense, and there is no method, and whether you get an account closed is just random! But they are running a business, and if a bookie judges they will never win from you over time, you’re in trouble – but it’s about the signals you give through how you bet/when etc – i assume that plays a role but maybe not.

    And of course there are now companies like BetConnect that you can use to get on. Or just rattle through a load of accounts using family/friends!

    Ms Coates – well good on her, she/her firm can pay themselves what they like as far as I’m concerned, if it’s playing by the rules as they are set. And from what i’ve read they are playing by the rules as are set out I believe – obviously many a firm is based in Gibraltar/abroad, as is part of their operation – but I believe/assume they contribute to the Levy what they should, and they pay Corp Tax on what they earn in UK, which last year or year before was £78 million+(which actually does seem low given their operating profits in truth)

    I read that two years ago I think, 52 BILLION was bet through them globally, and they made a profit on that of £2.5 Billion. 52 Billion is more than the economic output of Croatia and Ukraine combined. Madness.

    Coates built that company up from a portacabin in Stoke where they are still based, and employ over 4000 people – god knows what that town would be like without them, inc the Football team they own etc – and crikey, think of the income tax etc they all pay. Her Dad was the son of a miner and built his business from scratch also. And she gives 10s of millions away a year to charitable causes.

    My point is, play the ball, not the man/woman. If you think the Betting Levy should be bigger so be it, or Corp Tax should be higher, fair enough, but they play by the rules as they are set. And every one of us can write a cheque to HMRC and pay more tax if we wish to! 🙂

    If you despise excessive high pay, fair enough, (and her figures could be deemed excessive, but you can’t just have a one off Denise Coates Tax! It’s her company after all) but clearly there are many people you could pick on. But that will no doubt be an ideological point which is subjective and thus the end point will be agreeing to disagree, depending on your stance. And this isn’t the place for politics.

    But Ms Coates has been mentioned so many times on these pages. Time to find another bee in your bonnet Colin! 🙂

    1. Oddly enough I don’t have a bad word to say about B365!! Still with them. As you imply, some of the media criticism of their CEO smells of misogyny. The advantage of their huge turnover is not just high salaries, it means they can (and do, to my mind) offer decent odds. It is noticeable to me that B365 don’t immediately shorten their odds in a panic when a horse starts to attract support, maybe because it has been heavily tipped.
      Some of the smaller books clearly struggle to maintain their margins on lower turnover, and throw you out if you threaten to win – this is not on the back of betting £50s and £100s, just £5s and £10s.
      (Anyone know how to make money on the exchanges! – I have always failed….. )

    2. Wow Josh do not who has the bee in the bonnet HA HA but you must surely have sore finger tips!!!!
      For myself i have never placed a wager the night before do not agree with for often prices you struggle to achieve are given by tipsters who then in my view claim false figures, hey ho but that is my view.
      Bookmakers had dealings with said before my mate Adrian has 30 pitches, and used to go to meetings with them in my younger days and would lay off their bets.
      Bookmakers watching you we used to do Towcester Point to Point after a period of time one chap who put decent bets on won 8/9 times out of 10 soon has Adrian spotted him he would shout to me and i would take note of what he backed at the first bookmaker then run up to Adrian who was in the middle of the line where he would rub the name of the horse of his board so he took no bets on it, i would then place bets for us higher up the line and we all went home happy for a beer and curry.
      Today this shower are not bookmakers there is no competion on prices they are a total monoply, all in all do feel that i have background knowledge on bookmakers through experience.
      PS we did epsom derby day, Ascot, Cheltenham and many more meetings.

      1. Great stuff, I do like stories like that – you’d have to dance between pitches these days haha – Im trying to imagine you running between pitches – great days i’m sure.

        Oh we agree about tipsters and overnight prices etc – i’m not sure how long that practice will last for/tipsters will get away with it, esp with BOG reducing evening before- esp for ‘bigger’ odds selections – but there are plenty who’s results may well depend on stand out evening prices which no one ever achieves. If the tipster is really good then a % reduction may not matter in the prices you get vs advertised, but if you’re winning over time with horses with a massive disparity from evening before and at the off, I suspect your account may be in trouble .

        Yep- as above I think Exchanges may have ruined traditional bookmaking –

        they still take opinions at Point To Points, as no exchanges – and they are great. I assume that’s what it used to be on the track, different bookies taking different views- and reacting to live information (x betting wads on track, and reacting etc) but now sadly it’s all just linked to exchange prices it seems.
        Maybe that’s one are where ‘the good old days’ really were good !

        1. Wow – where to start!
          I do most of my tipping the night before races – not because I’m following this or that Tipster but because it fits better into my lifestyle. I take great exception to anyone telling me that I am a Mug for doing so.
          Bookmakers are out to make a profit and will do ANYTHING to that end – be it “paying off” MP’s and other influential people, sponsoring anything they can get away with, reducing costs by closing off accounts from winners, increasing income by any means possible, etc. etc. There is very little control of the Industry & it’s easy to say that they are operating within the rules when the rules are so lax.
          I side more with Colin on this than Josh – but that’s the beauty of this website in that it allows all sorts of views and there is no stifling of debate.

          1. Don’t think anyone is calling you a mug Phil…

            as per my comment above… “Of course all that may be nonsense, and there is no method, and whether you get an account closed is just random!” – my views on what causes account closures may be complete tosh! There’s logic in my head.

            (I assume you mean ‘betting’ not ‘tipping’ – there are reputable night before tipsters no doubt who are fair with prices they record etc)

            It’s a tricky one –
            the other side of the debate of course and some would argue – is that if a bookie has priced a race up – taking said price shouldn’t be a reason for closure etc.

            Maybe it is all random/and there is nothing we can do to mitigate account closures/restrictions, and as such you should get stuck in at any time, while you can.

            By early evening I’m more thinking 5/6 pm when market is very fresh/new – but again, maybe that’s a nonsense opinion. In reality we don’t really know what drives these decisions so are poking around in the dark. It certainly isn’t just ‘winning’ – you can get restricted by losing over a period of time, but if their computer doesn’t like your betting behaviour, they will act. All very odd.

      2. BRILLIANT Towcester story, Colin. Hope EVERYONE reads it.
        (Reason I listen to David Massey is that he still works the small racecourses, seems to love it. Also has some good stories. Hope you won’t be rude about him too………..)

        1. Pleased you enjoyed it and as always it is the truth, and i have had a wonderful life in the racing world covering every aspect and my view is more in line with trainers and owners, and how many of them struggle bar the top few.
          You set my alarm bells ringing for i never try to be rude about anyone, yes i am blunt and honest and passionate especially over horses and racing, and do find it difficult that people do not see how the bookmakers have been allowed to fleece racing just taking out and putting little in.
          Plenty of stories and for me it is nice to remember them, once at Newmarket where a lady offered me a seat in there plane to fly over for the Arc but that is for another day.

  6. My comments on your suggestion of guest tipsters Josh,
    Firstly I think I’m a bit put off initially due to Racing Consultants possibly being the first one. I was scarred on using tipsters due to paying out a fair bit of membership money and the service was really awful. Possibly a bad year for them but I did lose lots, because I was forever chasing my losses and the initial payment.
    I myself love the site as it is and really welcome the views and comments Posted but your right, something needs to be done because it’s getting quieter and some days a bit non existent.
    I liked someone’s suggestion earlier of maybe a lucky 15 posted daily, maybe 4 different members choosing a race each and forwarding their chosen horse and the reasons behind their choice and then the worst tipster of the 4 for the week or month being replaced by another member maybe? It would be a bit of fun and quite competitive and definitely an interest to me. I know there is a bit of admin required to sort it and track etc but you know I wouldn’t mind looking after that for you if required.
    I think all members including myself need to participate in the site a bit more maybe? I placed a bet on a little betfair system I use yesterday and it won and these are the sort of things I think we can all share a bit more to help each other on the site. Or members can obviously ignore them if they so wish.
    I will post later but it’s probably very well known already but there just maybe a few don’t know it who may find it useful
    Keep up the great work.

  7. Interesting reading gents on this wet and windy day on the south coast. Once again this is what makes this site so special! Without the “dreaded bookies” this would not exist, so very much a love/hate relationship. Have a good day one and all,

    6.30 Chelmsford Rebecke 5/1

    3.50 Doncaster All My Love 33/1
    6.00 Chelmsford Karisoke 7/2

    3.50 Doncaster Theflickeringlight 9/4

    No bet

    No bet

  9. Indeed we do seem to be in the doldrums with mid week NH racing at the moment due to often small or poor quality fields so much so that AW is my main financial outlay at the moment- a mix of some of Colin’s ever growing portfolio and Gavin plus a system I’m developing through Gee Gee stats.
    With regard to the guest tipster idea – I think its worth a bash – no one is forced to follow. I think that it would be important though for such guest tipsters to give a bit of back history and how they presently tip to their clientele with a resume of last year and current quarter performance so we can measure the “trial” month in context.

    1. Thanks Danny…

      In terms of members posting etc – obviously I can’t force/nor indeed expect people to post – it is what it is on that front – i try to manage it as best I can in terms of creating an atmosphere where people are free to post up what they wish, ask what they wish, or pose a thought/question – those who are comfortable and/or have the time to do so will, those who don’t, won’t.

      A key part of engagement is responsiveness – which is why I try to respond to most comments, esp when a question or a reply to me, and/or if I think someone has got wrong end of stick or whatever – and some of the topics, inc the guest tipster idea, take some time to respond/think about – i’ve probably spent 2h+ responding to comments – which I should do, if people are going to take time to post.

      In terms of Guest Tipsters – that’s my job, to research, introduce/set up – i’m the one in control of all the content/what I post up and it will very much be me getting added into service/receiving tips as a subscriber would and relaying at appropriate time – that does have to work for me – any time Mon-Friday is fine as bar odd days/when i’m away, i’m at my desk most days etc – weekends could be trickier if say they email/send out selections after 9/10am.

      But the first instance is very much trying to get ‘complimentary’ content you may find useful/can use in your own punting/may turn a profit – rather than showcasing a service you may wish to join – that latter part isn’t the aim within this club and will dictate how I discuss/talk about them in here.

      In terms of Rory – last year’s total figures look good – but as with any service you can have bad periods – but in part that’s why some of the trials will be interesting.

      I approached Darren Power at Betting School first as a) I know him personally b) they have a few services under their umbrella – and I wanted to introduce the idea with having a few services lined up – and he’s also more experienced with this sort of stuff and I did want to float the idea with him and whether any good etc. He came back and suggested to try with RC and they will see how it goes their end etc.

      It is a bit of trial and error and we shall see how it goes.
      But as has been touched on elsewhere, ultimately I need to up my own game in a few areas, and nothing will paper over that.

  10. Sadly Hills and 365 have both restricted me in the last month so there must be a profit to be made from here ! How does Bet Connect work ?

    1. Well I dont have an account, but know people who do… I think you register and in effect you post your bet request (horse you want to bet on / price/ stake) and then others go and place bet for you with the accounts they have –
      I don’t know exact ins and outs but it’s like an exchange but with people who have bookie accounts etc – i’m not sure how the commission works etc – but in effect you build up a record over time- people will want to bet on your behalf as they then get access to your bets (‘tips’) and can back them themselves also.
      I probably haven’t explained it very well, but if you struggle to get on, and generally do well over time, it’s worth googling/exploring.

  11. Well well this is more like it the board is more like 12 months ago with all this interactive activity and always remember someones views may not agree with yours as yours will not agree with theirs, and all the banter should be taken for fun.
    Starting my petition bring back CHUBNUT he did get the board going, mainly at my expense but do miss his input.

    1. ha, to clarify again, he left on his own volition, he wasn’t booted out! 🙂 I think he may have taken umbrage to certain innovations I tried!!

      1. Josh did know he left on his own accord, but he did a good job of livening up the board, if you still have his email and you are aloud to forward it to me will try to persued him to rejoin for his horse tips were looking good a couple of months prior to him leaving.

  12. Hi Josh, thought I would post as feeling a bit guilty not doing so!! As you know I don’t contribute in anyway on the blog, mainly, to be perfectly honest because I don’t have the racing knowledge that many/most have on here, but that is part of the reason I joined, I am not good enough to pick winners/losers in my own right so I am prepared to take the risk and rely on others, if it goes pear shaped then so be it – I don’t have to back them that is my choice – that would be the same with the guest tipster – if people want to back the tip they back it if they don’t then they don’t have to – at least if the tip is on here we have the choice. On the back of that I do have a big social interest in racing, I am a bit of a geek with the history – love watching all the old footage of the old races and have plenty of books/autobiographies, and there is nothing better than a day at the races – 28 courses up to now.
    I am also a self employed mortgage adviser running my own business, so time dictates that I purely do not have the free time to research to the depth that is required
    I currently back yourself and Colin religiously (doing a great job Colin, thank you) and a couple from the stats and Nick in the past
    I actually miss the golf tips from Colin & Martin on the free post – I am a sports fan not a race fan, so I personally would welcome something on different sports mainly golf & football – maybe a weekend acca for fun
    Thanks for doing the blog, Josh, the through the cards in the past have been a god send!!

    1. Hi Harry
      I may have a look at the golf again, and will have a think about it for the rest of the day, but it is a very limited market and have been concentrating on reviving the horse methods, for to be honest do need an income coming in that is why launched Elite and will be trying to find more in the future, to bring in an income.

    2. thanks Harry.

      Any random historical snippets/ anecdotes etc, or ‘does anyone remember trainer/horse/race X’ , are always welcome in these parts! Harry’s Historical fact of the week haha.


  13. Good to see some debate on here with all the different and opposing views and opinions. I’ll quickly throw mine in as I’m here – I couldn’t care less about bookmakers and all the hassle they cause through restrictions and supposedly having multiple accounts to try and squeeze the last bit of value out of each bet personally. I really can’t be bothered spending all that time and effort to manage multiple accounts to end up with restrictions. I’ll bet on the exchanges all day long knowing I’ll beat SP every time and not get restricted at any point giving me more time to find better angles, systems or methods to back. I don’t want to waste hours each day studying each and every possible bet I may place. I’ll bet between 4.0 and 18.0 on the exchange and forget chasing those huge prices because they are not worth the effort in the long run. Why go looking for them when the losing runs can regularly rack up 30 or 40 losers in a row? Around 85% of all Hcp winners this season (NH) are between 2.0 and 11.0. That’s where the focus should be in my eyes, smaller profits maybe but regular with less noise from the rest of the dross that’s making up the market.

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