Free Daily Post: 11/01/20 (complete)

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My Tips

Daily Chase Tips: Main

(2019: 24/165, 49p +16.8 , 2020: 1/6,1p, -0.5)

(handicap chases, 2m7f+, C4+)

3.00 Warwick

#1 – CAPTAIN CHAOS – 1 point win – 14/1 (gen) 17.00 (BetfX)

#2 – CROSSPARK – 1 point win – 14/1 (bet365/WH/BV/888) 18.5 (BetfX)

that’s all for this race, as of 09.14…

I’ve considered leaving this this race alone and pondered whether to wade into one of the top 3 at 4s-6s but I just can’t do either in races like this, try as I might. I think i’ve found two winners from the last six renewals since starting the blog, Hawkes Point 2015 (8s-10s) and Russe Blank 2016 (25s>20s) and, especially when no LTO winners who are proven at the trip, I can’t help but take on ‘the shorties’ – one of the top 3 may take this and preference would be for Kimberlite Candy 11/2 – but they are just ‘obvious’ and obvious isn’t the right move long term in these 14+ runner C2+ handicaps. The top two still have stamina to prove and can occasionally be scrappy at their fences – they both may relish this test (they shape as if they should although KC has two goes in marathons now inc a PU and well beaten in Eider having walked through most of the fences on first circuit, tipped that day I think), but they don’t offer value to my eyes and I just have to take them on. Le Breuil is interesting but has an inexperienced jockey on top and I think his season is all about the Grand National. The yard are still hit and miss also, and at 6s, again I could leave, but stamina is no issue for him.

I will not be shocked if one of the top 3 takes this but I don’t wish to be with any at the prices and nor do I wish to leave the race alone, only to see an 8s+ horse bolt up that I didn’t give myself a chance of finding. (cue the 1-2-3! 🙂 )  I need to improve at the top end of the market in the 10< runner chases/C3<  –  but going for bigger priced ones is the correct long term strategy in these staying handicaps/Festival handicaps,  but with my win only approach does mean there can be some long fallow periods, with the odd big spike. That’s just how it goes.

To the selections…

Crosspark – well if the top 3 do fold which is possible for one reason or another, last year’s 3rd could take this – he seemed to thrive last season and it could be that last spring/this season is his peak, a late developing staying chaser. He has the best staying chase form in this from early 2019 which culminated with a win in the Eider (front two miles clear) before taking another step forward with a credible effort in the Scottish National – a race that was run at a proper gallop and where he took it up 3 out or so, before being outstayed by Takingrisks (thankfully for us!) who’s franked the form already this season. The front four were miles clear in that. I think his whole season may well have been geared around this race, the Eider and The Scottish National again and it’s not impossible that they’ve run him into fitness on ground he really wouldn’t have liked. This is drying out here (although maybe now that tacky ground which is an unknown for most) and at his price I was happy to take a chance. It could be one race too soon but he did travel well for a long way in Haydock heavy LTO and they’ve booked Jamie Moore (on for Eider win) which makes me think they mean business. The yard have had a recent winner also. His RPR of 151 at Ayr makes me think this mark could be within range, but it is a career high – more an unknown than saying the ‘capper definitely has him in my view, esp in staying races like this. He generally jumps and travels well and he stays. He’s had one fewer run than when coming into this last season and he improved as a horse after that I think. They were possibly too patient on him there also. IF he runs his race he will be thereabouts and at 14s (19.00 on machine- easy to get matched) I was happy to take a chance.

Captain Chaos – he’s a risky one but on his best 24-26f runs he’d be bang there in this field – he does have stamina to prove but often ‘stays on’ in his races and he’s worth a go in a race like this – they remove the TT from last time out and importantly reapply the blinkers – he is a ‘character’ and connections may not know which CC will turn up. There’s not really any pace on paper in this and I really hope Harry is aggressive and tries to make all/dictate. I think he likes racing up there/not surrounded by horses – that second two starts back is solid handicapping form, the best in here prob after the ‘Hennessy’ but then that’s questionable this year also. He will appreciate this ground I think and the yard are in good form. The Chepstow run was ok to a point but he was ridden patiently, the ridden very wide, made 2/3 bad errors and it was in awful ground. At least he didn’t really have a hard race. I can hope that he does a Milansbar in this – he could lead until the last down the back, and then after that, we shall see if he can stay there. They should ride him like he stays and he’s tried to make all a few times before. Here’s hoping.

Of the rest…

Bobo Mac does shape like a stayer and interested me to a point but I wanted bigger than 8s given how competitive this is, the pressure on his jumping and he could just be a C3 animal, although I think he’s well handicapped still. Numerous horses in this just have much much better chase form than him to date and he needs more. He’s usually held up also and can hit a fence. 14s+ may have given me something to think about and I may have got him wrong – he could be the ‘annoying’ one at 8s+

I really could leave the rest – Darlac is being backed, and maybe it’s as simple as ‘C1 handicap chase / C Tizzard / Robbie Power = £’ – well it has done really, 5/19, 8p +19 SP in the last 5 years although ‘only’ 1/14, 4p in the last 2. Darlac is unexposed but  too inexperienced for me – he’s yet to win a chase and hasn’t won beyond 19f. I thought 12s looked short. Given he’s ‘unexposed’ that profile is never a total shock but his form isn’t brilliant either – I don’t think we have an Elegant Escape or Native River lurking here,  but maybe i’m wrong. It is a Tizzard chaser on a Saturday after all. He can beat me at the prices.

The rest have plenty more questions – Impulsive Star may be interesting having won it last year but he needs the blinkers to work 1st time, and that’s always a toss of a coin or roll of a dice. They may boot him out and he will gallop away but with 3x Ps he does have big questions over well-being/attitude. I could leave him at 12s. And if one of the other biggies beats me so be it, I wasn’t close to them and i’d have done a poor job again.

Pace/Running Style – well jockeys often want to secure a decent early position in races like this but there are no out and out front runners in this, esp over this trip – I do think Harry should be able to dictate or sit 2nd/3rd in the perfect spot if he wants. If he holds him up they’ll get what they deserve. Hopefully Crosspark sits behind the initial bunch and isn’t ridden too cold. The top 3 in the market will try and track any pace I suspect and won’t be too far away.

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