Members Daily Post: 12/01/20 (complete:10.07)

Main tip x1, Best of x1 + write ups, Section 2 (x1), test zone

1.My Tips

2.Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.General messages/updates/new reports etc

*

1.My Tips

Daily Chase Tips Main (2019: 24/165, 49p +16.8 ) Jumps Festival Tips (2018:+143; 2019: 6/99,27p, -45.8,)

Daily Chase Tips: Main (2020: 1/10,3p, -4.5)

(handicap chases, 2m7f+, C4+)

3.00 K – AMI DESBOIS – 1 point win –  9/1 (BV/PP/BetfS) 17/2 (WH) 8/1 (bet365) 2nd, 13/2

as of 09.15… that’s all for today. 

 

Best of The Blog? (test: 0/8, 3p; -8)

12.50 K – MR MGGO – 1 point win – 4/1 (gen) 3rd, poor.

as of 08.07, that’s all for today 

 

2.Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

JUMPS

Kelso

12.50 –

Well Above Par (micro -class) w2 15/2  UP

Aloomomo (m runs) 5/2  WON 7/2 

Up Helly Aa King (m dist and runs) w2 I3 7/1 2nd 14/1 

1.55 – Elvis Mail (m runs)14,30 w2 H3 I3 2/1  WON 2/1 

2.30 – Mymilan (m runs) w1 H3 I3 G1 15/8 S4 2nd (unlucky, would have won but for dolling off fences)

3.00 – Chapel Stile (all Hc’s) 14,30 w1 ES+ H1 I3 5/2 S3A#

3.35 –

Starplex (all Hc’s) w1 w2 H1 I1 G1 7/4 S4

Bullion Boss nr (all Hc’s) 14,30 ES+ G3 7/2 S3A

 

*

Please Read: All information regarding the members club and how to engage in the content, inc Videos. Inc contact info, research articles and much more can be found HERE>>>

*

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

January Trainers

L Russell (any odds, 14/1< best)

12.50 K – Well Above Par 15/2 UP

2.30 K – Katalystic 9/1 UP/ Rising Marienbard 10/1 UP

 

Chase Angles 2019/20

Trainers

12.50 K – Mr Mcgo H3 I1 G3 4/1 3rd 

 

LTO Winning Trainers

1.25 K – Jabaar (12/1< guide) H3 I1 G1 5/6  2nd 

 

4.General messages/updates/new reports etc

Write ups…

3.00 K – Ami Desbois…

It’s a shame the fav is out here as he’s usually ridden cold and didn’t jump very well at all LTO at Carlisle, when all the fences up the home straight/from turn in were omitted which helped him – i’m not sure he relished the ground either and this going was a question – anyway, we get 8s instead of 11s.

Unbelievably really this horse has yet to win a handicap chase in 9 starts but has the best handicap chase form in here, at his best, by a street to my eyes. He does like to lead/get his own way and he hasn’t been able to do that for a while, in much better races than this – i’m hoping the Barnes horse may take a lead in these conditions/trip but in any case AD is just classier and I think he should be able to dictate here. IF he’s here to run his race and does run his race, he should be the one to pass approaching the last. Maybe the 11-12 will weigh him down up this muddy hill but at his price, and thinking he can doss along on the front, I couldn’t help myself.

If I ever select another horse again without any decent ‘hot form’ I need disposing of really, and indeed an appreciation of those with form in better races. I think that ‘hot form’ and indeed pace/running style may well be something that isn’t accounted for in the market until later in the day/when everyone wakes up, but I could be wrong. This one ticks all those boxes – since Dec 18 he hasn’t really run a bad race over fences.

  • He finished a 5L 3rd at Chepstow in Heavy, in the GN Trial. Ramses De Teille won that and would push Elegant Escape close in the Welsh that season. Prime Venture in 2nd who ran well in this season’s edition.
  • He ran well at Haydock when not quite staying but that was a C2, before running an agonising 2nd (for me/us, another one!) at Sandown in Feb in a decent race – fluffing the last which may have cost him, losing to Classic Ben by 1/4L, with a certain Kimberlite Candy in 3rd, staying on.
  • He prob was feeling that effort on his next start before then running two solid 2nds again at Ffos Las and Uttoxeter – in the former he just lost to Achille, again a late error prob costing him – that one ran a fine race on his return at Cheltenham a few weeks back. The horse doesn’t have an attitude problem and to a point has just been unlucky/bumped into one. IF he gets back to the form of any of those runs last season I think he wins. He certainly outruns 8s.
  • This season…well he may not be as good but they have been very good races, prob needing the first run and he possibly did too much at Haydock, on lively enough ground – but that wasn’t a bad race with 137-145 horses in front, all solid enough for the class. This race isn’t anywhere near as good as that.

So, he has the form in the book – conditions are fine, he carried 11-12 in that Ffos Las 2nd, he’s dropping in class, gets soft/heavy, should get the lead, generally jumps well. A mark of 139 is fine I think on the balance of his form – he’s generally consistent which is why it rarely moves but on those runs and the level of his hurdles form, I won’t use that as an excuse.

Of course he may not run his race and if that’s the case it’s open enough.

Knockoura is up 7lb for winning a weak race LTO and needs more, but he’s fit, in form and stays I think – although a question in a properly run race. Slanlough is held up off the pace, or has been – he can over-race also – however again he’s in form and ‘plugs on’ – I won’t be shocked if he went well but 5s at the time didn’t seem overpriced to my eyes – Big River > well he was the starting point as he’s threatened/run big races in the Ultima and up at Ayr – but he’s usually ridden cold (i’ve no idea why, connections should try being much more aggressive and maybe they will today) and he can’t jump – he usually takes a few home with him and that combined with his usual running style is enough to scare me off at 11/2, (before 30p R4). He has a cracking course record but just needs more and may want a stronger pace to sit off. I can also leave Jessies at the price as he has stamina to prove and in this ground, and isn’t exactly unexposed. Those XCountry runs can be deceptive as they usually dawdle around until the last mile or so.

I don’t think Ami will have a better opportunity to win a handicap chase. It could be he’s hitched a ride in the box given they run another in an earlier race (624 mile round trip for connections). But at 8s i couldn’t resist.

*

12.50 K – Mr Mcgo –

4s looked a shade overpriced here and he could arguably be fav , 5/2 or so on the strength of his form – I won’t detail the hot form as the one above but it does stack up well here… the Chepstow 4th, Bangor 2nd to Zolfo and his run at Kempton LTO all read very well to my eyes. 119 is looking tempting and this is one of the weaker chases he’s run in, as he aims to get a chase win under his belt. Heavy ground is fine for him and I think this sort of intermediate trip looks ideal. I think even a repeat of his Kempton run LTO makes him the one to beat here.

The rest have solid if not mediocre ‘northern’ form – a few fit, and in form, but this is about whether Mr M puts his best foot forward. He’s another that likes to get on with it and hopefully may be x2 make all victories! I can dream.

Alomomo- he’s the main danger even if mine runs his race- simply based on his back form – but he hasn’t won any race since he was 5 (now 10) but IF he ever got back to anywhere near his best for his new yard, off this mark, he could win hard held. But he’s clearly had issues, could bounce and Heavy ground is a complete unknown, with much of his better form on better ground. I was happy to take him on but he is one you could see looming up with a double handful.

If both fluff their lines it’s then open enough but I didn’t want to be with anything else at the odds- nothing in here could have come 4th in that Kempton race in my opinion, nowhere near.

*

 

 

Share on facebook
Facebook
Share on twitter
Twitter
Share on pinterest
Pinterest
Share on linkedin
LinkedIn
Share on telegram
Telegram

Post Comments

Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

12 Responses

  1. AW T/T
    A winner and 2nd on Sat Rangali Island and Glen Coco. F/c exacta paid £30.70.

    3 runner for Sunday
    12.40 S Constitutional…K Burke Cl…15/8
    1.45 S Momtalik…D Shaw Dist…16/1
    2.50 S Baron Run…K Burke Cl…15/2

    Mike

    1. Mike
      Just a note of thanks for yesterday.
      I haven’t backed any of your selections to date but yesterday I was scratching my head a bit as I ploughed through the cards finding little inspiration.
      I dutched Rangali at 10/1 (Unibet boosted), Glen Coco @7/2 plus a £5 RF on the pair.
      (I also backed Fortisssimo but you cant win them all!)
      The RF paid 25.22 so I made a shade over £145 profit on the day.
      I must admit I found the live race a bit nerve shredding, but that is all part of the fun.
      Cheers
      Mike

  2. Hi Josh

    Thanks for the advices yesterday at Warwick taken from thru the card ITV 7 and stats and Tips nice winner with Joke dancer and nearly a good day with Captain Chaos had saver on Kimberlite

    Diamond River ran a nice race to finish 3rd for his first race got a bit bumped about on the final turn and we will see how the race works out

    Peter

    1. Hi Peter,
      glad you had a good day – not sure I deserve any thanks or praise. Another woeful effort really – getting 80% of things right but that final 20% – read the Classic Chase well and come away -2, but glad you had write up/or used stats to have saver on Kimberlite – but I shouldn’t be coming out of analysis like that with nothing to show for it (whether it’s an EW bet, or throwing winner in there)- so main danger won that one, main danger/interesting one won the Wetherby race where I went for easy option/selection/obvious one which was ironic given write up for Classic Chase – and I wont’ mention 3.15 Kempton – suffice to say all three winners had hot/decent form/interesting cases at prices etc.
      It hasn’t been clicking in my head for too long now, some bad luck which just how it goes, but too much stuff like yesterday – nearly there but not quite – which is better than being nowhere near said winners – but still annoying.
      Think I need to scrap any pretension of having some set ‘rules’ I follow and need to start asking myself what results would annoy me! It will all click/spike at some point, but i’m testing many a people’s patience I suspect. This game is one thorough test of the mind. But on we go.

      Glad you had a good day – that winner of the bumper should have been found in hindsight – given he was named after the company who sponsored the whole day! No shock he was tuned up for it. Yours ran a decent enough race.

      Josh

      1. Hi Josh
        I have been a member long enough to know that your analysis is always very good and will produce winners and always has ups and downs I tend to back all selections each way so even without the saver on I would not have lost on the race

        with hindsight could have had the winner of the bumper as you say hopefully we have a good horse in River Diamond

        Peter

  3. COLINS BETS
    12.40 Soutwell Sea Of Cool 7/2
    3.25 Southwell Global Melody 7/2

    TIP TOP
    2.20 Southwell Cosmelli 10/1

    ARUBA
    12.40 Southwell Isobar Wind 9/2

    FAVOURED
    12.40 Southwell Sea Of Cool 7/2
    3.55 Southwell Midnight In Havana 3/1

    MAX BETS
    12.40 Southwell Sea Of Cool 7/2
    Colin

  4. well i’ll probably get as much mud on my face as the horses and jockeys will get on them at kelso but here goes:
    Kelso 12-50. I cannot for the life of me work out how Aloomomo is 5-2 fav, hasn’t won in over 4 years and was a very average 10l 5th in a novice hurdle on comeback, i get that he is nearly a stone better off than when a 20l 2nd to Crievhill in a C2 21 months ago but i still couldn’t back him at the price. Many others look to have fair chances in this including Josh’s pick and Mah Mate Bob could easily defy the 4lb rise and go in again, but with the change in going to heavy i’m sticking my neck out and have had a few quid ew on Knocknamona @20-1 gets in today at the featherweight mark of 10st 3lb and has by far the best form in heavy going. Now i’ll just sit back and watch Aloomomo hose up 🙂

  5. Update on methods for January so far
    Colins bets + 1.5 points to level stakes
    Tip Top + 12 points
    Aruba + 29 points
    Max Bets + 19.5 points
    Favoured Minus – 9.417

    The highest priced winner as been 10/1 in any method, time will tell how they maintain the profits but Tip Top as had 3 winning months and hopefuly January will be another winning month.
    After only 11 days it shows that you do not need the 33/1 plus winners which we all like but are very difficult to find the odd one which comes along in these methods are cratefuly recieved.
    Lastly the ones that i have not backed for reason of ground or price etc have been very good but not being a lay man will not be putting them up again.
    Colin

  6. Hi Josh,
    In your results update you mentioned Jumps S4 may be worth a look.
    I can’t seem to find the rules for this, any ideas? 🙂

    1. Hi David…
      They should be mentioned in the welcome link post somewhere but they’re pretty straightforward…

      Any Section 2 listed horse that has x3 red symbols (the ratings pointers) next to their name – I add the code on the morning, so as above you can see two S4s today.

      I’ve started adding the ratings pointers in the Test Zone for added info/those who like picking out etc and to try and help me with my new test – they don’t appear to be as yet! but the logic is the same.

      Josh

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published.