Members Daily Post: 11/01/20 (complete)

‘ITV through the card’ Main tips x3 + write ups, Section 2 (complete), test zone, Sat trends quals

1.My Tips

2.Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.General messages/updates/new reports etc

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1.My Tips

Daily Chase Tips Main (2019: 24/165, 49p +16.8 ) Jumps Festival Tips (2018:+143; 2019: 6/99,27p, -45.8,)

Daily Chase Tips: Main (2020: 1/9,2p, -3.5)

(handicap chases, 2m7f+, C4+)

3.00 Warwick

#1 – CAPTAIN CHAOS – 1 point win – 14/1 (gen) 17.00 (BetfX) 2nd, exciting run for most of way, but ultimatley outstayed/well beaten by Kimberlite C.

#2 – CROSSPARK – 1 point win – 14/1 (bet365/WH/BV/888) 18.5 (BetfX) UP, poor.

that’s all for this race, as of 09.14

 

3.25 Wetherby

#3 – ECLAIR DE GUYE – 1 point win – 5/1 (bet365/Unib) 9/2 (gen) PU, poor.

as of 10.07, that’s all for main tips today, write ups at bottom of post. 

 

Best of The Blog? (test: 0/7, 2p; -7)

None today, an ‘ITV Through the Card’ in section 4 below…

 

2.Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

JUMPS

Warwick

3.00 – Impulsive Star (all Hc’s) 11/1 UP

3.35 –

Tedham (all Hc’s) H3 G1 5/1  UP

Igor (all Hc’s,HcH) w2 I3 16/1 S2A UP

 

Wetherby

2.15 –

Katpoli (all Hc’s) L w2 H3 3/1 WON

Niven (all Hc’s) 4/1 UP

2.50 –

Sakhee’s City (all Hc’s,HcH) w2 12/1 2nd

Storm Rising (all Hc’s) w1 H3 9/2 UP

Zig Zag (all Hc’s,HcH) 16/1 S2A UP

 

Kempton………None

 

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3.Micro System Test Zone

January Trainers

S Smith (any odds)

1.15 Warw – Joke Dancer H3 5/2 WON 10/3 

3.25 Weth – Absolutely Dylan 4/1 Fell

 

Chase Angles 2019/20

1.15 Warw- Master Work (14/1<) H1 G3 7/2 UP

3.00 Warw – Kimberlite Candy (13/2<)  H3 I3 5/1 WON 5/1>9/2 

3.15 Kemp – On The Blind Side (10/1<) H1 G3 9/4 UP

3.25 Weth – Ice Cool Champs (10/1<) 11/1  WON 11/1>9/1 

 

Jockey Angles 2019/20 

1.30 Kemp – Mercian Prince  (9/1< guide) H3 G1 6/1 UP

3.15 Kemp – Touch Kick L H3 4/1  2nd/ Minellacelebration (25/1<) 28/1 UP/DNQ

3.00 Warw – Bobo Mac (17/2< guide) I3 9/1 UP

 

Chase Eye-Catchers 2019/20 

3.15 Kemp – On The Blind Side (3rd run) H1 G3 9/4 3rd

3.00 Warw – Bobo Mac (1st run) I3 9/1 UP

3.35 Warw – White Moon (2nd run) 25/1 UP

2.15 Weth – Azzuri (3rd run) L I3 G3 14/1 UP

 

4.General messages/updates/new reports etc

Saturday Big Race Trends/Pointers  (from the Trends Thursday post)

Kempton

2.40 – Lanzarote

Trends 

The 12/12 and 11/12 stats leave 10/12 winners (10/65 runners, 21p) …

  • Echiquier
  • Gortroe Joe

Trainers (to have won race with runners)

  • Burrows Edge / Theinval
  • Burrows Park
  • Eragon De Chanay

3.15 

Trainers (to have won race with runners)

  • War Sound

 

Warwick

3.00 -Classic Chase 

Trends

I’m not sure they’re too useful in this but the 15/15 stats ‘remove’ 6, leaving…

The Conditional * / Kimberlite Candy / Le Breuil */ Captain Chaos */ Crosspark / Head To The Stars */ Joueur Bresillien */ Goodnight Charlie 

= horse has 0-1 handicap chase win which is a positive

Trainers (to have won race with runners)

  • Impulsive Star  (prev winner)
  • Darlac
  • Milansbar (prev winner)

 

3.35 – Pertemps Qual

Trainers (to have won race with runners)

  • Tedham
  • Special Acceptance

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ITV ‘Through The Card’ 

I’ve had two goes at ‘ITV ‘through the cards’ so far…  (x3… 4/22,8p,-6.2)

This is a bit of fun, but always some method, even when a quick look through. I’ve looked at every race, used some of the stats/trends above, ratings, ‘instinct/think less!’ – very much more ‘winners eye’ than ‘value eyes’ for some of the races. They’re not official tips (bar the 3pm) and if you do play, only for very small stakes / fun multiples/ placepot / free ITV 7 game / placepots etc… we shall see how they get on…

1.50 W – Highest Sun – 2/1 UP

2.05 K – Frodon – 6/4 WON 6/4>5/4

2.25 W – Whatsupwithyou – 8/1 PU

2.40 K – Echuquier 10/1 3rd | Gortroe Joe 16/1 UP

3.00 W – (main tips) – Crosspark UP/ Captain Chaos 2nd – 14/1

3.15 K – On The Blind Side – 7/4 UP

3.35 W – Tedham 4/1 UP | Igor 10/1 UP

1/10, 2p, -7.5

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Write ups….

Classic Chase

I’ve considered leaving this this race alone and pondered whether to wade into one of the top 3 at 4s-6s but I just can’t do either in races like this, try as I might. I think i’ve found two winners from the last six renewals since starting the blog, Hawkes Point 2015 (8s-10s) and Russe Blank 2016 (25s>20s) and, especially when no LTO winners who are proven at the trip, I can’t help but take on ‘the shorties’ – one of the top 3 may take this and preference would be for Kimberlite Candy 11/2 WON 9/2  – but they are just ‘obvious’ and obvious isn’t the right move long term in these 14+ runner C2+ handicaps. The top two still have stamina to prove and can occasionally be scrappy at their fences – they both may relish this test (they shape as if they should although KC has two goes in marathons now inc a PU and well beaten in Eider having walked through most of the fences on first circuit, tipped that day I think), but they don’t offer value to my eyes and I just have to take them on. Le Breuil is interesting but has an inexperienced jockey on top and I think his season is all about the Grand National. The yard are still hit and miss also, and at 6s, again I could leave, but stamina is no issue for him.

I will not be shocked if one of the top 3 takes this but I don’t wish to be with any at the prices and nor do I wish to leave the race alone, only to see an 8s+ horse bolt up that I didn’t give myself a chance of finding. (cue the 1-2-3! 🙂 )  I need to improve at the top end of the market in the 10< runner chases/C3<  –  but going for bigger priced ones is the correct long term strategy in these staying handicaps/Festival handicaps,  but with my win only approach does mean there can be some long fallow periods, with the odd big spike. That’s just how it goes.

To the selections…

Crosspark – well if the top 3 do fold which is possible for one reason or another, last year’s 3rd could take this – he seemed to thrive last season and it could be that last spring/this season is his peak, a late developing staying chaser. He has the best staying chase form in this from early 2019 which culminated with a win in the Eider (front two miles clear) before taking another step forward with a credible effort in the Scottish National – a race that was run at a proper gallop and where he took it up 3 out or so, before being outstayed by Takingrisks (thankfully for us!) who’s franked the form already this season. The front four were miles clear in that. I think his whole season may well have been geared around this race, the Eider and The Scottish National again and it’s not impossible that they’ve run him into fitness on ground he really wouldn’t have liked. This is drying out here (although maybe now that tacky ground which is an unknown for most) and at his price I was happy to take a chance. It could be one race too soon but he did travel well for a long way in Haydock heavy LTO and they’ve booked Jamie Moore (on for Eider win) which makes me think they mean business. The yard have had a recent winner also. His RPR of 151 at Ayr makes me think this mark could be within range, but it is a career high – more an unknown than saying the ‘capper definitely has him in my view, esp in staying races like this. He generally jumps and travels well and he stays. He’s had one fewer run than when coming into this last season and he improved as a horse after that I think. They were possibly too patient on him there also. IF he runs his race he will be thereabouts and at 14s (19.00 on machine- easy to get matched) I was happy to take a chance.

Captain Chaos – he’s a risky one but on his best 24-26f runs he’d be bang there in this field – he does have stamina to prove but often ‘stays on’ in his races and he’s worth a go in a race like this – they remove the TT from last time out and importantly reapply the blinkers – he is a ‘character’ and connections may not know which CC will turn up. There’s not really any pace on paper in this and I really hope Harry is aggressive and tries to make all/dictate. I think he likes racing up there/not surrounded by horses – that second two starts back is solid handicapping form, the best in here prob after the ‘Hennessy’ but then that’s questionable this year also. He will appreciate this ground I think and the yard are in good form. The Chepstow run was ok to a point but he was ridden patiently, the ridden very wide, made 2/3 bad errors and it was in awful ground. At least he didn’t really have a hard race. I can hope that he does a Milansbar in this – he could lead until the last down the back, and then after that, we shall see if he can stay there. They should ride him like he stays and he’s tried to make all a few times before. Here’s hoping.

Of the rest…

Bobo Mac does shape like a stayer and interested me to a point but I wanted bigger than 8s given how competitive this is, the pressure on his jumping and he could just be a C3 animal, although I think he’s well handicapped still. Numerous horses in this just have much much better chase form than him to date and he needs more. He’s usually held up also and can hit a fence. 14s+ may have given me something to think about and I may have got him wrong – he could be the ‘annoying’ one at 8s+

I really could leave the rest – Darlac is being backed, and maybe it’s as simple as ‘C1 handicap chase / C Tizzard / Robbie Power = £’ – well it has done really, 5/19, 8p +19 SP in the last 5 years although ‘only’ 1/14, 4p in the last 2. Darlac is unexposed but  too inexperienced for me – he’s yet to win a chase and hasn’t won beyond 19f. I thought 12s looked short. Given he’s ‘unexposed’ that profile is never a total shock but his form isn’t brilliant either – I don’t think we have an Elegant Escape or Native River lurking here,  but maybe i’m wrong. It is a Tizzard chaser on a Saturday after all. He can beat me at the prices.

The rest have plenty more questions – Impulsive Star may be interesting having won it last year but he needs the blinkers to work 1st time, and that’s always a toss of a coin or roll of a dice. They may boot him out and he will gallop away but with 3x Ps he does have big questions over well-being/attitude. I could leave him at 12s. And if one of the other biggies beats me so be it, I wasn’t close to them and i’d have done a poor job again.

Pace/Running Style – well jockeys often want to secure a decent early position but there are no out and out front runners in this, esp over this trip – I do think Harry should be able to dictate or sit 2nd/3rd in the perfect spot if he wants. If he holds him up they’ll get what they deserve. Hopefully Crosspark sits behind the initial bunch and isn’t ridden too cold. The top 3 in the market will try and track any pace I suspect and won’t be too far away.

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3.25 Weth – Eclair De Guye

I thought 9/2 was more than fair for this unexposed chaser, back up in distance to a more suitable trip, with the yard in form, a good track record and the booking of Hughes. His agent will have got him on this one although in truth i’m not sure what else he could have ridden in this. His form, inc over hurdles, generally has a decent feel to it with plenty of subsequent winners/horses to have run well, especially in the context of this race – that form, and his RPR of 125 two starts back, makes me think 115 is within range. He’s been in a few races where the front two/three have been well clear, which is always a promising sign also. There’s still plenty more to come from him and at Fontwell over 2m5f he was doing all his best work late up that muddy hill. I think the drop in trip LTO wasn’t the right move having watched it – he also stumbled badly down the back which knocked his rhythm and made the odd error under Tissier- Hughes is quite the upgrade, esp on a chaser. Hopefully he tracks the pace and powers away after the last, delivered fairly late I suspect if Hughes can. He did looked inexperienced when hitting the front at Fontwell but should have learnt plenty.

Of the rest… well it looks a poor race. Ice Cool Champs  WON is unexposed and having first start for Kerry Lee – but most of hers in recent months have been needing the run and i’m guessing as to fitness –  he needs plenty more also and Hobbs is no mug with a chaser. In the last two years she is 0/13,2p with stable new comers from other yards. If he beats me so be it – he is lightly raced, but too many questions for me,  even at what was 10s. Being backed.

De Forgotten One is interesting as he beat Lord Du Mesnil (the pain, we were on at 20s) in a photo at Stratford, LDM bungling the last which cost him- he hasn’t run a bad race since the bugger, and he’s jumped so well. I’ve no idea how he got beat, given what he’s gone on to do. So, on that form this one is interesting but he was woeful when last seen and has since had a wind op. He’s an inexperienced jockey on top, the yard are quiet and Johns is down at Kempton. I was happy to leave at what was 6s or so, as I was the rest. But that Stratford form hints at ability and that he should still be well handicapped when it clicks again.  If Jonjo’s rises from the dead so be it – maybe today is the day, ahem. I’m not sure he wants soft ground and has far too many questions for a 6s shot.

Bets of luck.

Josh

 

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

13 Responses

  1. AW T/T
    Rulers Kingdom a winner at 5.6 bfsp.

    3 runners for Sat.
    5.45 C Glenn Coco…S Williams Dist…5/1
    Rangali Island…D Simcock Hcp…11/2
    3.40 L Fortissimo…M Johnston Cl…10/1

    I have heeded Josh’s comments Friday re all selections being handicaps. I did wonder but carried on regardless. 80/1 sp 190 bfsp winner was certainly a Brucie bonus under the circumstances. It has made the figures look good though.

    Mike

  2. rushed off my feat this morning but i did want to mention 1 that i think is worth a look at Fairyhouse in the 2-10. Goulane Chosen 22-1 with sky 5 places, if you take out form 2m4f + looks a lot better.

  3. Selections up then write ups later

    13:30 Kempton
    ERICK LE ROUGE 1pt win 6/1 gen
    MR MEDIC 1pt win 12/1 gen
    14:10 Fairyhouse
    KILDORREY 1pt win 9/1 gen
    ARTICULUM 1pt win 9/1 gen
    15:00 Warwick
    PETITE POWER 1pt win 11/1 gen
    IMPULSIVE STAR 1pt win 11/1 gen

    1. I hope you’recover right about Articulum Stewart, my brother-in -laws horse and they are pretty hopeful of a good run. Have backed it ew
      Good luck.

    2. ERICK LE ROUGE
      looking through his form it seems as though he likes it here, when he was 10/1 last night i thought it was a little over priced, but, never expected it to get down to the 9/2 -4/1 mark which is maybe a little short. C and D form trainer doing well and Lizzie Kelly on board who deserves a slice of luck, she has not ridden this one since his first 3 runs, so, it must be an omen that she is up in the plate today.
      MR MEDIC
      Well the other one at the prices was this fella, thought 12/1 was far too big and he`s now into 9`s, which i thought was about right. Dropped in class here and should enjoy the better going, so, thought the 12`s was value.
      KILDORREY
      Has had a funny season so far, been run over different distances and on atrocious going, the going is sloppy today, but, nowhere near as soft as has been over the last couple of months, big showing expected here after going well in this last year.
      ARTICULUM
      Has some useful form and if you knock out the fact that he does clout the odd fence then he looks thrown in here, ground has come right and will be up there from the off hopefully, price looks value and it will be no shock to see the horse powering away as the speed ratings for this one are really good on this going.Third in the Arkle is good form and hopefully this one finds the form of old here.
      PETITE POWER
      Horses who are in form normally do well here and this one s the form horse here, wins at Cheltenham and Uttoxeter followed up by a close second at Exeter means that with the jockey combination included here will make for an interesting afternoon of racing, value if the odds keep drifting.
      IMPULSIVE STAR
      I know previous winners don`t do well in this, but, at the odds and hoping the headgear peps this one up I`m willing to take a chance on him running as big a race as he did last year, everyone of the horses he beat last year improved after this race except obviously for Callett Mad, so, maybe the certain type of headgear was the key, value at a double figure price and should run well!

      As always hope all horses come back safe and sound and good luck with whatever you select today!

      1. Good start with Eric well done, many appear to have dived in at 10s last night, he was 4s or so in that race by time I had a browse through this morning. How he was put in at those odds I’ve no idea, not sure how any trained trader puts in at 12s
        Uttox win decent, he clouted two at Hunt which did for him late on, didn’t stay at Ascot but went well for a way. Lizzie has been injured hence why she hasn’t been on for an age but back now and no disrespect to Chester but she is much better on chasers than him. And of course his course form.
        Makes Not That Fuisse of some interest from that Uttox run as he hasn’t confirmed promise as yet over fences from memory. One for spring maybe.

        I didn’t back him at morning odds but hope you got stuck in at bigger. Profit guaranteed.
        You can win the 2.10 and let me have the 3pm haha.

      2. Hahaha, yes, no problem…cough cough..Nah, want to win them all, which is what you would expect from me! I don`t care so long as we all have a good day! I could not believe i woke up at 06:30 and 365 were offering 12/1, they took £20 at 12`s then shortened it to 10`s so I asked how much, they gave me £40 at 10`s, so, yeah I`m happy enough…

  4. COLINS BETS
    No bet

    TIP TOP
    1.15 Warwick Joke Dance 11/4
    1.25 Lingfield Lady Dancealot 10/3
    1.30 Kempton Mercian Prince 13/2
    6.15 Chelmsford Wimpole Hall 4/1

    ARUBA
    1.15 Warwick Joke Dancer 11/4
    1.25 Lingfield Lady Dancealot 10/3
    5.45 Chelmsford Almufti 11/4

    FAVOURED
    3.25 Wetherby Eclair De Guye 5/1

    MAX BETS
    1.15 Warwick Joke Dancer 11/4
    1.25 Lingfield Lady Dancealot 10/3
    Colin

  5. Fransham 3.45 Kempton 12/1

    Pam Sly is 3/6 with hurdlers at kempton,was beaten by start last time out,is a course winner and might outrun its odds

  6. E.W Lucky 15.
    War 12.40 Bathiva 11/1
    Kem 1.30 Cap St Vincent 20/1
    Kem 2.40 Larkbarrow Lad 10/1
    Wet 3.25 Silver Tassie 11/2

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