Members Daily Post: 10/01/20 (complete:09.41)

Main tip x1 +write up, Section 2 (complete), test zone, Trends Thursday

1.My Tips

2.Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.General messages/updates/new reports etc

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1.My Tips

Daily Chase Tips Main (2019: 24/165, 49p +16.8 ) Jumps Festival Tips (2018:+143; 2019: 6/99,27p, -45.8,)

Daily Chase Tips: Main (2020: 1/6,1p, -0.5)

(handicap chases, 2m7f+, C4+)

none.

 

Best of The Blog? (test: 0/7, 2p; -7)

None today.

 

2.Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

JUMPS

Huntingdon

3.45 –

Just So Cool (all Hc’s) 7/1 

Sea Story (HcH) 6/1 

 

Sedgefield

12.15 – Bertie Blake (HcH) G3 10/3 WON 10/3>9/4 

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Please Read: All information regarding the members club and how to engage in the content, inc Videos. Inc contact info, research articles and much more can be found HERE>>>

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3.Micro System Test Zone

January Trainers

12.50 Sedge – Hill Sixteen (any odds) H3 9/4  WON 9/4 >5/6

2.00 Sedge – The Paddy Pie (any odds) G3 7/1 UP

 

Chase Angles 2019/20 

Trainers

12.50 Sedge – Sonic (14/1<) G3 10/1 PU

 

LTO Winning Trainers

2.00 Sedge – Flowery (12/1< guide) H1 I3 7/2 2nd

 

Jockey Angles 2019/20 

1.35 Hunt – Clondaw Rigger (25/1<) G1 9/1 

 

Chase Eye-Catchers 2019/20 

2.35 Sedge – Benechenko H3 I1 G3 5/2 UP 

 

4.General messages/updates/new reports etc

NEW Trends Thursday Post HERE>>>

A good debate/chat of interest on Thursday’s Free Post in the comments re bookmakers/trainers sponsorship and general betting chat, READ HERE>>>

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1.35 Hunt –

Silent Encore – this is fairly moderate stuff and i’ve gone with a 19 race maiden but I don’t think that tells the wholes story and it’s only his 5th handicap chase. I’ve been drawn in my a few pieces of ‘hot form’ which in the end I couldn’t ignore and they suggest that IF he runs to the best of his ability, and repeats said efforts, he’s no 12s shot in this race.

In Jan 19 he made his chase debut at Lingfield over 20f in GS, outpaced but running on well at the finish, and jumping well. Parlour Maid and Tzar De Elfe (won for us at Plumpton) were in front that day and have won 3 between them since, suggesting they were well handicapped at the time off 97 and 100. I’m not sure what happened on his next two chase starts but they were on the back of a wind op and he was badly hampered early at Exeter, which may have affected him mentally, losing confidence. He bounced back to form at Uttoxeter over hurdles, running on into second, beaten 2l by Sir Robbie. That horse was chucked in over that distance and would beat him on his next start also – finishing the summer on a mark of 120, having taken the first of those off 95. A repeat of that second, back over fences, would put him in the mix here. Three starts ago at Huntingdon on his return, over hurdles again, he ran on into second – all beaten by a well handicapped Skelton horse of 91, who’s bolted up twice since. He finished just ahead of Fergal’s horse in that race, which makes the price disparity a bit off – but maybe a reaction to their efforts LTO.

So, there’s plenty of ‘hot form’ (moderate enough mind but so is this race) where he’s been unfortunate to run into one when he has put his best hooves forward. His opening handicap mark was 110 and at Warwick in May 17 he ran well over 21f in a C4, beaten 3l.

The yard have had a winner since he last ran and he gets better ground here – they ran him in atrocious ground that day but he went ok until tiring 3 from home. I don’t think heavy is what he wants. It would have been preferable had there been no rain yesterday but I think the ground should be ok. Johnny Burke continues to ride well and knows the horse well and there’s plenty of pace on paper to sit off here.

He’s clearly no world beater but he looks well handicapped and he does try/respond to pressure. Horses are generally at this level (other than just being naturally slow) due to bad jumping and/or a questionable attitude – they can have more off days than most, and he could have another – but as I said, there are enough good runs that have worked out well that would see him outrun his 12/1 odds here, to my eyes anyway.

The dangers…

Taking on Little Bruce proved foolish yesterday and maybe it will be the same for last year’s winner Arthurs Reuben who may well be running into form at the right time. He does need more than LTO and I wouldn’t want to wade in at 5/2 but he’s back to the same mark and the money appears to have come. It isn’t the sort of race where i’d want a short price. Fergals is unexposed but no value at 10/3 in my view and neither is Stonebridge Legend – keeps running ok, i’m not sure why he would better recent runs but a repeat may be good enough.

Then we are to the bigger priced horses and the rest have plenty of questions and i’m happy to give a wide birth.

Katy Price is now 0/46, 3p in the last 90 days, 0/28,1p in handicaps , and i’d want to see a bit more before wading into any of her chasers. Itsamanslife has a CD win to his name but all hope seemingly rests on whether the CP spark him into life. Given the yard form I can leave, but he could go ok.

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

17 Responses

  1. AW T/T

    3 nice winners from 5 with a 25/1 2nd on Thursday.

    12.35 L Rulers Kingdom…Mjohnston Cl…7/1
    3.25 L Golden Fountain…m Johnston Cl…8/1

    Mike

    1. Mike, thanks for posting. I looked at Dundalk and thought Hypnotic Force in the 6pm race qualified?
      Best wishes
      Linda

      1. Linda

        Yes, you are correct I forgot to look at Dundalk altogether. Thanks for alerting me to it. Old age setting in, ha ha. Still a decent price though.
        Nice winner already Ruler Kingdom.

        Mike

        1. I’ve done that before. As an aside… the stats are just for handicaps only – I think that second MJ horse technically doesn’t qualify (obv he’ll bolt up now) – and i’ve a feeling that monster winner we had may technically not have either – maybe a Brucey bonus! 🙂

      1. haha – i’m not sure i’ll ever bounce out of bed wanting to analyse an AW handicap, but I may get more excited about the systematic element!

        At this stage i’m more intrigued as a format in which to research the TTP Flat turf version – and that may be a way forward- I used that new AW report as an experiment – focusing on all handicaps (well not nurseries but 3YO, 3YO+ and 4YO+ .. I used to exclude the former) and that more simplistic profile with just four stats types – all handicaps / distance / class/ trainer-jockey – with just one ‘high quality’ (on paper at least) stat for each.

        That could be a better way forward for the Flat Turf version, we shall see. Mixed in with some more bespoke angles in the test zone etc.

  2. Ben Haslam could have a lucrative period now that he seems to be hitting form.
    Another trainer I follow is Roger Fell,had a winner today so may also be about to hit a purple patch also.
    In the last few winters I have begun to focus more on the aw tracks whereas it was just a filler before.Tomorrows racing is more like a sunday serving.only one competitive handicap at huntingdon.Still there is racing at southwell again on Sunday and Karl Burke has a couple of 3yo maidens entered next week

    1. I do hope members are continuing to follow Karl Burke at Southwell. Two nice winners earlier in the week.

      I do not think that backing Ben Haslam or Roger Fell on the all weather with all runners works. Do you think that these trainers have a specific angle worth looking at?

      All the best.

      1. Happy New Year Martin,the only profitable angle for Fell is his 4yo+ at Southwell and 3yo at Newcastle.Neither have the insert coin,pull lever and collect consistency of Burke so I usually wait until they seem to be running into form.Burkes are usually young unexposed types whereas Fells and Haslams hit peak for a few weeks and drop away again

  3. 2 main bets today
    Huntingdon 3-45. Dalaman 18-1 4 places WH.
    Sedgefield 2-00. The Paddy Pie 7-1 win
    a few more i’ve been looking at and might have a small interest in.
    H 1-35. Running Wolf
    Sedgefield
    12-15. Dollys Dot
    12-50. Ringaringarosie
    2-35. The Lion Dancer
    3-05. Blazing Port

  4. Morning,

    Have decided to have a quick go in Ireland, small stakes though, as I feel favourite could run away with this, wouldn`t put you off backing each way, but, my betting dictates win only these days.
    13:15 Thurles
    LOCH LUATHA 1/2 pt win 25/1 gen
    BALLYBROWNEY JACK 1/2 pt win 8/1 gen

    It is a pretty bad race this, which like I say could go easily to the favourite, but, both of these have at least one win left in them and BBJACK is dropped in here in a chase to hopefully reinvigorate a bit of form, his 3rd in september looks good form and with JJ on board he will have the right kind of ride, LOCHL is a different kettle of fish and will need a patient ride, but, if in the mix turning in on this long run in, has the speed to maybe win this going away, he did clout the last when he won here, but, like i said does have speed in between fences to pull away/ catch up, the price reflects the chance, but, 25/1 is value.

    As always hope all jockeys and horses come back safe and sound and good luck with whatever your selections are today.

  5. COLINS BETS
    5.15 Wolverhampton Onebara 7/2
    6.45 Wolverhampton Knockabout Queen 11/4

    TIP TOP
    12.35 Lingfield Moondance 10/3
    7.15 Wolverhampton Katherine Place 4/1
    Colin

  6. ARUBA
    12.35 Lingfield Moondance 10/3
    4.45 Wolverhampton Never A Word 6/1

    FAVOURED
    1.10 Lingfield Power Link 7/2

    MAX BETS
    12.35 Lingfield Moondance 10/3
    Colin

  7. Hi Josh
    On the way to Warwick tomorrow to see the third of our syndicate horses Diamond River run in his first race at 4pm we have been waiting over 18mths for this horse to run since the syndicate started as he suffered a training injury very early on as always hoping for a good day and he gets through the race and comes home safe.

    I know you a usually busy on Saturdays but if you get chance any pointers for a thru the card would be appreciated

    Peter

    1. Hi Peter,
      have a great day out. I’ll see what I can do – there’s 3 chases tomorrow for me to look at, inc the big one –
      but it should be fine – I may have a crack at an ‘ITV through the card’ but that covers 4 races from Warwick anyway. In any case, should be some content for you to muse over.
      Josh

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